Transcript New Solutions for Planning Livable Places

Growth Trends and
Planning Solutions for
Livable Places
Joseph Carreras
Southern California Association of Governments
November 30, 2001
The 1939 Inter-regional Highways Vision
“Who can say what new
horizons lie before us if we
but have the initiative and
imagination to penetrate
them--new economic
horizons-new social
horizons-new horizons in
many fields, leading to new
benefits for everyone,
everywhere.”
General Motors’ Futurama,
1939 New York World’s Fair
The Post War Sprawl Era Begins
1950, 1 in 14 Americans live in California
Source: New York
Times, U.S. Census
The West and South are the Focus
of National Growth
2000, 1 in 8 Americans live in California
LA Consolidated Metro Area Rank Highest Growth, Highest Density Level,
Worst Smog, Tenth worst commute time
1,842,116
2. Los Angeles
1,650,216
1. New York
1,184,519
9. Dallas
938,440
10. Houston
917,720
3. Chicago
881,020
4. Washington
786,051
5. San Francisco
7. Boston
363,697
295,526
6. Philadelphia
269,257
8. Detroit
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1990 to 2000 population gain
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Do We Plan or Let the Chips Fall
Where They May?
In 2000, 42% of Residents of the SCAG Region
Live Outside Los Angeles County
T h e S h a p e o f th e S C A G R e g io n , 2 0 0 0
S C A G C o u n tie s
Im p e ria l C o u n ty
P o p u la tio n
L o s A n g e le s C o u n ty
9 ,5 1 9 ,3 3 8
O ra n g e C o u n ty
2 ,8 4 6 ,2 8 9
R iv e rs id e C o u n ty
1 ,5 4 5 ,3 8 7
S a n B e rn a rd in o C o u n ty
1 ,7 0 9 ,4 3 4
V e n tu ra C o u n ty
1 4 2 ,3 6 1
7 5 3 ,1 9 7
1 6 ,5 1 6 ,0 0 6
E a c h s q u a re re p re s e n ts 5 0 ,0 0 0 p e o p le .
S o u rc e : U S C e n s u s .
By 2025, the Region will Add
6 million people to its 2000 Shape
T h e S h a p e o f th e P ro je c te d S C A G R e g io n , 2 0 2 5
S C A G C o u n tie s
Im p e ria l C o u n ty
P o p u la tio n
L o s A n g e le s C o u n ty
1 2 ,2 7 7 ,0 0 0
3 1 8 ,0 0 0
O ra n g e C o u n ty
3 ,4 3 1 ,0 0 0
R iv e rs id e C o u n ty
2 ,8 5 6 ,0 0 0
S a n B e rn a rd in o C o u n ty
2 ,8 2 1 ,0 0 0
V e n tu ra C o u n ty
9 4 0 ,0 0 0
2 2 ,6 4 3 ,0 0 0
E a c h s q u a re re p re s e n ts 5 0 ,0 0 0 p e o p le .
S o u rc e : S C A G 2 0 0 1 R T P
P o p u la tio n G ro w th b y D e p e n d e n t G ro u p
T h e n e x t 2 5 y e a rs w ill s e e a b ig in c re a s e in E ld e rly
4 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
3 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0
3 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
Under 20
Above 65
2 ,0 4 2 ,8 0 4
2 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 ,7 1 0 ,0 2 9
1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
5 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 ,9 3 5 ,3 5 7
6 8 9 ,5 0 9
0
1 9 7 5 -2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 -2 0 2 5
In About 10 Years Expect A Big Increase in
Elderly Persons
80%
70%
60%
Under 20
Above 65
31.4%
50%
40%
30%
31.5%
20%
10%
36.9%
16.5%
0%
2000-2010
2010-2025
P o p u la tio n Ag e C o h o rt-Ag e s B e tw e e n 2 0 a n d 2 9 -M o s t
L ik e ly R e v e a l th e S tro n g e s t D e m a n d fo r Ap a rtm e n ts
1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
S C AG R e g io n
8 0 0 ,0 0 0
C a lifo rn ia
6 0 0 ,0 0 0
4 0 0 ,0 0 0
2 0 0 ,0 0 0
0
-2 0 0 ,0 0 0
-4 0 0 ,0 0 0
-6 0 0 ,0 0 0
-8 0 0 ,0 0 0
7 0 -7 5
7 5 -8 0
8 0 -8 5
8 5 -9 0
9 0 -9 5
9 5 -0 0
0 0 -0 5
0 5 -1 0
1 0 -1 5
1 5 -2 0
2 0 -2 5
S C A G R e g io n P o p u la tio n G ro w th B y E th n ic ity
H is p a n ic P o p u la tio n w ill ris e s h a rp ly , m o re s o th a n it w ill s ta te w id e
1 4 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
8 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
6 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
0
1970
1975
N H W h ite
1980
1985
H is p a n ic
1990
1995
A s ia n /P I
2000
2005
B la c k
2010
2015
2020
2025
N a tiv e A m e ric a n s
Source: California Department of
Finance
Growth Trends Over the Next 25
Years in Southern California
• Add 6 million people or as many as over the last ¼ century
• Growth is inevitable and may equal two cities the size of Chicago
• Hispanics will make up 85% of net growth, Asians the remainder
• Dependent population rises from just under 40% of past growth to
over 60% of future growth
• Nearly 2 million more elderly and 2 million more youth under 20
years of age
• Elderly portion of growth will be 3 times higher than in the past,
youth 20% higher
Consequently, expect a:
• Shrinking middle age group, shrinking middle class (?), shrinking
economy (?)
• Sharp rise in transit dependent population and elderly housing
demand
Aging Baby Boomers and
Young Hispanics
• Will Baby Boomers age in Place? What are their next
moves?
• Young Hispanics, where will they seek apartments and
starter homes?
• Will immigrants continue to cram into crowded
quarters as they come to the region for jobs?
• Citizen participation and voting on land use decisions
may be affected by different lifestyle and housing needs
between aging Baby Boomers and young Hispanics.
How do we assure social equity goal achievement?
• Are mixed use developments an emerging trend driven
by new lifestyle demands of empty-nest boomers in
their mid 50s?
Regional Livability Footprint
High Desert
San Bernardino
Riverside
Many seek
affordable,
starter
homes in the
Inland
Valley and
desert areas.
Ventura*
Los Angeles
CA
Lower Desert
Affordability Index
Orange
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Orange
Ventura*
CA
Los Angeles
Lower Desert
San Bernardino
Median Home
Prices
Riverside
High Desert
Thousands
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
Production Solutions Include Fiscal/Tax
Incentives, Developer Inducements and
Public Education About Housing Needs
This housing
complex was
designed to meet the
housing needs of
larger Hispanics
families in Los
Angeles.
Villa Del Pueblo
Los Angeles, CA
Photo Source: SCANPH
A Model Multi-Family Housing
Production Solution
Project Participants
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Seasons at the Hoover
Whittier, CA
Multi-Family Historic Preservation
•
•
•
•
Century Housing
City of Whittier
Federal Home Loan Bank
Housing Authority, County of LA
HUD Home Investment
Partnership Program
J. Dreyfuss & Assoc., Inc.
Killerfer Flammang Purtill
Architects
Lend Lease Real Estate
Investments
LINC Housing Corporation
Vista Communities, Inc.
Washington Mutual Bank
Community Visioning -10 Examples
1. The City of Los Angeles: Several major showcase civic, mixed-used, cultural,
transit-oriented, LA river, corridor and new-town initiatives across the city;
2. Pasadena’s Mixed use showcase development—Paseo Colorado along with
old town;
3. Queensway Bay, Pine Street and Blue line transit plaza development in Long
Beach;
4. Azusa’s Community Congress visioning project for the Monrovia Nursery
and the Back to the Boulevard visioning effort in Whittier are achieving high
civic participation goals in local planning;
5. Bold mixed-use projects from Alhambra’s Plaza on Main to the Valencia
Town Center in Santa Clarita are garnering design awards;
6. The 3rd Street Pedestrian promenade flourishes in Santa Monica;
7. Brea’s New Downtown offers lofts, in-fill housing and mixed use
redevelopment;
8. Anaheim’s new Disney Theme Park and Convention Center Expansion;
9. Santa Ana’s Nine block Artist Village; and
10.Cathedral City’s Downtown Revitalization in the Desert
Mixed-use, Transit-oriented Development
Hollywood & Highland
Redevelop Brownfields
Chesterfield Square
Chesterfield Square: Suburban
Shopping Arrives in South Central LA
Supported by:
• Amistad housing project
• Federal Empowerment
Zone tax incentives
• State enterprise zone
incentives
• City of Los Angeles
incentives
• Redevelopment area
Coordinate Local Land Use With
Future Growth Projection
Planned land use is medium and high density...
Coordinate Local Land Use With
Future Growth Projection
but existing land use is predominately low density.
Create Mechanisms for Consensus and
Dispute Resolution on Land Use Issues
• Regional Housing
Needs Assessment and
Housing Element
reform
• Subregional Visioning
efforts and Civic
dialogue
• Monitor development
and create benchmarks
for success
Multi-Family Housing Production
Promote Fiscal Incentives
• Promote inter-regional
partnerships: 3 pilot
programs in Southern
California
• Promote job housing balance
policies and social equity
goals through smart growth
• Invest in infrastructure,
including airports
• Workforce development
• Location Efficient Mortgage
Demonstration with LEM
Partners and FannieMae
Commercial/Retail Viability is Shifting in
Response to Regional Centers at Freeway
Interchanges and Transit Stops so:
– Invest in citizen participation
– Promote local serving jobs
downtown and on main street
– Avoid blight along
commercial strips by using
multifamily housing as a
buffer between business
nodes, establish gateways, use
banners and streetscapes
– Use housing in weak
commercial areas and mix
with retail
– Beware of big signs on thin
poles
A Regional and State Compact
On Growth
Connect consensus building, civic visioning
initiatives, such as:
 Community urban village efforts and strategies
 Sub-area planning efforts from the SOAR initiatives in
Ventura County to the Integrated Planning Process in
Riverside County
 Regional visioning projects like USC’s Building A
Sustainable Southern California and SCAG’s Growth
Visioning for A Sustainable Region
Adopt a state growth management strategy that
supports other visioning efforts in California:
 Vision 2020 in San Diego
 Joint Venture Silicon Valley
 Bay Area Compact
Solutions for Sustaining a Livable
Region in a “Post Sprawl Era”
• Community visioning and urban villages
• Redevelopment of Brownfields
• Coordinate local land use planning with growth
projections to meet emerging life style choices
• Create mechanisms for consensus and dispute
resolution on land use issues between communities and
neighboring subregions.
• Promote fiscal incentives in California for encouraging
job housing balance and better inter-jurisdictional
cooperation on land use issues
• Develop a Regional compact that creates an effective
mechanism for Mobility, Prosperity, Equity and
Environmental Sustainability
http://www.scag.ca.gov/livable