Transcript Slide 1

Core Cities – only recently show
a jobs gain over other areas
Alan Townsend, Professor of Regional
Regeneration & Development Studies, Durham
University (with Prof Tony Champion, CURDS,
Newcastle University)
GB Industrial Communities under
Globalisation
I worked in DTI on defining government Assisted Areas
And as Chair of Regeneration in Wear Valley District
1998-2008
• We lost 58.1% of factory jobs, 1998-2008
• The 23 English Districts most dependent on coal lost
32.3% of manufacturing then, compared with GB, 32.9%
• The Districts shared in the GB total increase in all jobs by
virtue of Part-time employment in Services
Unlike GB they have failed to recover their 2008 totals
(either manufacturing or total jobs) in latest data
They failed to get many jobs through travel to Core Cities
after 1981
The fashionable consensus around
“agglomeration”
• “Under globalisation we can barely sustain more than the capital City
Region”; if we can it’s a second belt including Manchester; or its City
Region?; or its Local Authority core?
• Mainly Respublica, LSE, Treasury, but suffers wider disbelief among
researchers closer to the evidence
• The “Core Cities Group” was able to persist with current government
• Industrial “clusters” were exaggerated by RDAs
• Local firms do not necessarily trade with each other, e.g. Teesdale
Business Park generates only 38% Teesside sales
• Research on agglomeration; “doubling the size of a conurbation” only
increases production by 3.5% . Now we look at employment
• So what is the contention over Cities?; is it a better past performance?
Is it the potential for a better performance? Or just the need?
“Bigger cities have not grown faster”
R. Martin, Cambridge University
Annual average % change, 1981-2011, 63 Primary Urban Areas, GB, ranked
All in employment decline, GB
Burnley (-0.7% p.a)
Hull
LIVERPOOL
Stoke
Dundee
Birkenhead
Sunderland
BIRMINGHAM
Blackpool
Grimsby
Blackburn
Middlesbrough
Wigan (-0.1% p.a.)
Leading “northern” Cities in growth
Telford (NT)(+2.1% p.a.)
Warrington (NT)
Cardiff
Preston (NT)
LEEDS
Doncaster
York
Newport
Edinburgh
Aberdeen (+0.5% p.a.)
Source; ONS ; “NT” = New Town
City Regions, GB, after Coombes at el (1999 &
later)
Travel-to-work of 8 Core Cities of England,
1981-2011, thousands
Workplace
population
Daily travel
IN
Daily travel
OUT
%Commuting
IN
1981 Males
2011 Males
1276.0
1182.5
499.4
466.0
195.4
280.2
39.1
39.4
1981 Females
2011 Females
905.4
1031.1
264.3
415.7
60.0
191.8
29.2
40.3
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The 9 Core City Local Authorities versus rest of City Regions
Employment as full-time equivalents, 1984=100
130
110
Inner London
Rest of LCR
9 City LAs
100
90
80
19
84
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
1984 = Index 100
120
Rest of 9CRs
But Core Cities bounce up in the recovery
Percentage change, 2010-4 year-ending Sept.,source ONS (LFS), by workplace;
thus, all data from here include the Self-Employed
Core Cities
2010-2 Full-time
Rest of
City Regions
Great Britain
-1.6%
-0.1%
+0.5%
Part-time
-0.1%
+4.7%
+2.4%
FTE
-1.4%
+0.7%
+0.8%
+8.3%
+1.8%
+4.2%
Part-time
+3.4%
-0.01%
+2.3%
FTE
+7.6%*
+1.4%
+3.9%
2012-4 Full-time
*Led by business and professional services, property development, head
offices, employment agencies, call centres, and some miscellaneous
entertainment, restaurants and personal services
The bigger individual cities have grown faster
Percentage change, 2012-4 (Sept.), by workplace
All Core Cities
All other leading “northern” Cities (PUAs) in growth
Leeds
10.3%
York
15.1%
Manchester
10.3%
Cardiff
7.5%
Glasgow
9.2%
Aberdeen
7.2%
Sheffield
8.6%
Rochdale
6.6%
Newcastle
8.5%
Bradford
6.5%
Birmingham
7.3%
Wakefield
6.5%
Liverpool
5.9%
Edinburgh
5.6%
Bristol
3.3%
Swansea
5.5%
Nottingham
1.9%
Wigan
4.8%
All northern in decline: Huddersfield (-10.5%); Burnley; Sunderland; Hull;
Newport; Grimsby; Dundee; Bolton; Telford (-0.1%)
Source ONS (LFS)
Change in FTEs for GB, 3-zones & Core Cities vs Rest,
2008-14, % for period
.
10.0
2008-2010
2010-2012
2012-2014
8.0
% for period
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
Great
Britain
London
GB
CR
nonCR
9CRs
9 City
LAs
Rest of
9CRs
Change in FTEs for Britain beyond the City Regions ,
2008-14, % for period
.
6.0
2008-2010
2010-2012
2012-2014
4.0
% for period
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
Non-CR South
Non-CR
Midlands
Non-CR
Scotland
Wales
Non-CR North
Change in FTEs for 10 City Regions, 2008-14,
% for period
.
8.0
2008-2010
6.0
% for period
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
2010-2012
2012-2014
Conclusions on the organisers’ questions
Are the numerous towns beyond the cities to become just dormitories for
commuters? No, the longer term trend is for more female, not male,
inward commuting
Is overspill from the cities the only way in which the rest of the country can be
expected to grow in future? From 1981 “New Towns” have done best for
jobs, but there remains an urban-rural drift
Or can the places beyond the big cities be centres of economic growth in their
own right? Examples tend to be larger communication and service centres,
when others have a longer-term lack of business services and skills
And is it true anyway that the big cities are performing so much better than
the rest of the country? The evidence is actually much more complex.
Core Cities‘ importance was the volume of growth, not a higher average
rate than adjoining areas. But 2012-4 have seen Core Cities expand much
faster in FTEs, especially compared with the rest of northern England .
NOT LIKELY TO PERSIST AT THAT RATE, partly low-productivity rebound
Implications for Devolved Governance
From an employment point-of-view we do need
• Strategic Planning, whether with Combined Authorities, or
LEP AREAS modified as “City and County Regions” (SEPs
were only “bidding documents”?)
• A code of conduct for employment forecasts and numeracy
in relating to demography and transport
But, having Chaired both Regeneration and Planning
Committees, it’s not, this time, “the economy at all costs”
and a business park at every M junction
• New employment sites must relate equally to the social
map – access to deprived areas in Index of Multiple
Deprivation – and to the environment (as per clause in
NPPF)
Newcastle-upon-Tyne City area
Total employment
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
2012
Energy & water
2,100
Manufacturing
11,200
Construction
12,800
Distribution, cafes etc 37,800
Transport etc.
20,200
Banking, finance et
35,500
Public services
79,500
Other services
11,500
TOTAL
210,600
Including Self-employed 13,500
2014
Change
1,700
-400
10,800
-400
16,000 + 3,200
39,800
+2,000
20,700
+ 500
43,000 +7,500
85,200 +5,500
10,900
-600
228,100 +17,500
19,400 +5,900