Transcript Slide 1

‘Mankind was destined to live on
the edge of perpetual disaster.
We are mankind because we
survive. We do it in a half-assed
way – but we do it’
- James Michener
(From a plaque on the Writers’ Walk, Circular Quay, Sydney)
IT’S LATE,
AUSTRALIA!!
How long until you wake up?
First call: Uppsala 2002
Then: Rimini, Pisa, Denver, Boston, Cork, Houston,
…
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During six long years: what’s changed?
While Australia has slept on:
2002
Discovery rates
continue decades-long
fall
Calculations suggest
reserves can’t meet
demand projections
Some recognition of
political, investment
risk in developing
resources
While Australia has slept on:
2002
2008
Discovery rates
No improvement in resource
continue decades-long situation
fall
Calculations suggest
reserves can’t meet
demand projections
New, more accurate,
calculations of supply define
earlier peak more clearly
Some recognition of
political, investment
risk in developing
resources
Political will to increase
supply clearly absent; prices
not stimulating investment
to increase supply
We’ve carried on burning up oil ….
Oil consumption per capita
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
© BP 2008
… buying from those who have lots
International Energy Association’s
wake-up call :
“ There are three problems:
Geology
Investment
Policy of main producers
These, taken together, make
the future of oil very difficult ”
Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
In your dreams ….
‘The explorers will fix it; there’s lots of
oil out there - think of Jack and Tupi; add
in the OCS and ANWR’
‘Worldwide reserves/production ratio is
still 40:1; there’s lots of time to find other
energy sources’
‘Technology will deal with it: add just
10% to recovery efficiency and we’re
fine’
Discoveries – the trend continues!
Annual Discoveries (bstb )
60
60
Past
Future
Production
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
0
2050
The R/P Placebo
3. So production from known
fields will look like this:
1. Reservoirs don't do this:
Prodn. Rate (MMb/d)
Prodn. Rate
(MMb/d)
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
10
20
30
Time (years)
40
50
Prodn. Rate (MMb/d)
2. …. but this:
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
20
40
Time (years)
60
Field rate declines after ~ 50%
of reserves produced
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
10
20
30
Time (years)
40
50
Total rate not constant,
declines ~ 4% /year. After 40
years rate is ~ 20% of original
80
Effects of New Technology
Little indication that
recovery efficiency is
increasing in
established fields.
Prudhoe Bay
1977 Internal Estimate : 12.5 -15 Gb
Initial Report to SEC :
9 Gb
Annual Production (million bbl)
Main benefits seems
to be in dealing with
unexpected problems
and in finding small
accumulations
700
1989
600
500
400
300
200
100 1977
0
0
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
8
9
Cumulative Production (billion bbl)
10
10
12
We’re trying harder, but ….!
Source: BP, Baker Hughes
World Oil Production
3500
3000
World
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
Average Prodn. Rate
(mmb/d)
Number of Rigs
World and US Rig Usage
US
2002
2004
Year
2006
2008
90
80
70
60
1997
1999
2001
Year
2003
2005
2007
If it looks like a peak – and it
feels like a peak – then ….!
World Oil production (mmb/d)
Source: BP
If it looks like a peak …..
Some things aren’t changing ….
… others are …
… but not as we had expected
Searching for the Way Forward
The two great challenges facing mankind are
PEAK OIL
CLIMATE CHANGE
Can we find a common solution?
Searching for the Way Forward
Most people can conceive only two possible
scales of response:
•INDIVIDUALS, IN THEIR DAILY LIVES
(the ‘light bulb syndrome’)
•GOVERNMENT, ON A NATIONAL SCALE
‘Business as Usual’ Demand Growth
By Region
By Sector
MBD
MBD
140
140
120
120
Power
ME/AF
100
100
LA
80
80
Emerging
Asia
60
Japan/Aus/NZ
Russia/Caspian
40
Transportation
60
40
Europe
20
Industrial
20
North America
0
Res/Comm
0
80
90
00
10
20
30
80
90
00
10
20
How will restricted supply / higher prices alter these?
30
The Problem – and part of the
Solution?
Prices wake us up
Rationing: A forced solution
Queuing for diesel at a Sinopec
station in South China, Apr. 2008
Waiting in line for gas when Grangemouth
refinery workers were on strike, Apr. 2008
Source: 13D Research, NY
Energy Usage Rate
u
Lo s,tr
In cal uck
te
rc bus (IC
ity
(e E)
b
In
l
te us ect
,r
ri c
rc
ity ai
)
l
(IC
ra
il
(e E)
le
ct
M
ric
ar
P
)
in
i
p
e
(d elin
M om e
es
ar
in
tic
e
)
Ai
(
i
r ( nt
do nl.
m )
es
Ai tic
r(
)
in
tn
l.)
al
b
,l
oc
C
ar
(MJ/p-km,t-km)
Moving
Source: Gilbert, Paul, ‘Transport Revolutions’
100.0
10.0
1.0
0.1
How the US moves
Source: Gilbert, Paul, ‘Transport Revolutions’
US FREIGHT COSTS AND VALUES
Pipeline
Freight Value ($/t)
Rail
Road
Air
670
900
2800
87000
Transport Cost ($/t-km)
10
15
180
550
Transport Cost as % value
1.5
1.7
6.3
0.6
How we move around the world
Source: Gilbert, Paul, ‘Transport Revolutions’
Transport Mode Shares (%)
(International Trade)
Mode
tonne-kms
Shipment Value
Water
96.7
49
Road
1.5
11
Rail
1.0
3
Pipeline
0.5
2
Air
0.3
35
us
(
(IC
ity
)
e
(i n
tn
l .)
tic
)
Pi
pe
li n
e
el
ec
tri
c
(d
om
es
M
ar
in
e
ra
il (
IC
E)
)
E)
ele
ctr
ic
uc
k
bu
s,
ra
il (
M
ar
in
In
te
rc
ity
Lo
ca
lb
loc
al
bu
s,t
r
In
te
rc
Ca
r,
Usage ((MJ/p-km,t-km)
Moving – more slowly!
Source: Gilbert, Paul, ‘Transport Revolutions’
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Basis for the ‘Transition Towns’
Four key assumptions:
• Life with lower energy consumption
inevitable, better to plan than be surprised
• Communities lack resilience to be able to
deal with severe energy shocks
• Must act collectively and act now
• Can unleash collective genius of us all to
design our energy descent, build more
connecting and enriching ways of living,
recognize biological limits of our planet
Hopkins, ‘Transition Handbook’, 2008
Peak Oil, Climate Change - Intertwined Problems
Hopkins: ‘Transition Handbook’ (2008)
The End
SPARE SLIDES
Renewables are diffuse
Power Source
Power/Unit / Land Area
(W / (m**2))
Wind - onshore
Wind- offshore
Tidal Pools
Tidal Streams
Solar PV Panels
Plants
Concentrating Solar - deserts
Ocean thermal
2
3
3
50
5
0.5
15
5
To make a difference, renewable facilities must be
country-sized