Transcript 幻灯片 1
Conditions and Process of Taiwan’s Democratization Week 3 Week 3: Teaching Outline • Theories of Democratization • From Authoritarianism to Constitutionalism 1.Theories of Democratization • Modernization theory (developmental approach) • Economic growth, social equality, and pluralism are three compatible goals • Economic growth that presupposes market freedom will lead to – information (literacy, education and media) diffusion and social equality (equal distribution of social wealth) 1.Theories of Democratization – social plurality, autonomy, differentiation, specialization – cultural secularization, individualization and rationalization – rise of middle class and interest group – political mobilization and competition – democratic transition 1.Theories of Democratization • Two competitive paradigms (structureagent debate) – School of democratic conditions, or structureoriented approach, assuming “political actors” face limited choice sets • What makes democracy possible, and when? – School of democratic process, focusing on the strategic moves of the actors • Who wants democracy and how? Socioeconomic Approach • Strengths – theoretical elegance – methodological measurability – empirical verifiability • Weakness – the exact correlation between socioeconomic development and democratization • The Predicting power of per capita GDP • Taiwan, SK in 1970s, and Singapore Methodological Problem? • Will a “modern dynamic pluralist society” necessarily lead to democracy? • Socioeconomic developments as independent and continual variables • Democratization as a dependent and dichotomous (democracy or non-democracy) variable • Can we employ quantitative changes in social structure to explain a qualitative breakthrough in the political system? Who Wants Democracy? • • • • • • Bourgeoisie in England and France Military in Portuguese Organized workers in Poland Students in South Korea Native opposition groups in Taiwan Strategic choices of different actors Three typologies of democratic transition • democratic transformation initiated by the leading elite on the top (Taiwan?) – Transaction (Share & Mainwaring) • democratic replacement initiated by civil society (collapse, Share & Mainwaring) • democratic transplacement contributed by both the leading elite and civil society Institution as an Independent Variable Institutional change Institutional modification Old institution Political actor Structural change Institution stiffness 2. From Authoritarianism to Constitutionalism • Land reform—ownerfarmer families • Strong human capital • Developmental state policies • Autonomous bureaucracy to implement those policies • US aid & open markets Growing Political Dissatisfaction • Taiwan’s economic development created an educated, globally-engaged middle class • Taiwan’s loss of international recognition made “recovering the Mainland” unlikely • More and more Taiwanese believed: - The government should put Taiwan first - Postponing democracy was unnecessary - 本省人deserved political equality 2. From Authoritarianism to Constitutionalism • Constitutional framework – Rule of the people, by the people, for the people – National Assembly, Five Yuan, President • Temporary articles during the period of mobilization for pacifying rebellion – Martial Law （1949-1987） – No new parties & newspapers were allowed – One-party rule with a political strongman Chiang Ching-kuo’s New Deal • Political recruitment – Taiwanization (Lee Teng-hui, Lian Chan, Wu Bo-hsiung) – Rejuvenation (James Soong, Ma Ying-jeou) • Expanding electoral channel gradually – From local elections to supplementary elections for National Assembly, Legislative Yuan and Control Yuan (1972) 2. From Authoritarianism to Constitutionalism • Opposition movement on rise – Lei Chen and Free China Journal (1960) – Chongli Affairs (1977): Hsu Hsin-liang – Kaohsiung Incident (1979) • Formosa journal • Shih Ming-teh, Annette Lu, Chen Chu • Chen Shui-bian; Frank Hsieh, Su Chenchang • Demonstrations against the Whit Terror continued (1980s) 2. From Authoritarianism to Constitutionalism • KMT’s reform plan (1986) – Enhancing parliaments via elections – Consolidating local self-governance – Revoking Martial Law – Allowing new political parties – Improving social security – Promoting inner-party reorganization 2. From Authoritarianism to Constitutionalism • Communications between the KMT and Dangwai (outside the Party) people (May 1986) • The birth of the Democratic Progressive Party (Sept. 28, 1986) • The DPP’s dual-track strategies – Rational competition (intra-system) – Radical confrontation (extra-system) 2. From Authoritarianism to Constitutionalism • Change of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan – Rubber stamp of the Executive Yuan – “Body language” in the parliament • Students movement (March 1990) • Constitutional Amendment Democratization begins • • • • 1947: local elections held regularly 1968: “Supplementary” elections 1972: “Taiwanization” of the GMD 1977: non-GMD (黨外) candidates worked together in local elections • 1979: Kaohsiung Incident (高雄事件) increased support for the opposition (黨外) • 1983: 黨外 candidates won several elections • 1986: DPP (民進黨) formed Democratization Accelerates • 1987: martial law lifted – restrictions on speech, publication, political parties removed • 1988: Li Denghui (李登輝), a 本省人, became president upon the death of Jiang Jingguo (蔣 經國) • 1991 & 1992: direct elections for national representative bodies • 1996: direct presidential election Taiwan’s Political System Today President* 總統 Legislative Yuan* - - - - - - - - Executive Yuan 立法院 行政院 Control Examination Judicial 檢察院 考試院 司法院 Provincial governor, assembly * (abolished in 1996) Counties/Cities (縣市), executives and assemblies* Townships (鄉鎮), executives and representatives* Village/lin/li (村鄰里) * Elected Positions 台湾的政治转型 • 政治转型的原因 • 政治转型的过程 • 政治转型的特点 1.政治转型的原因 现代化理论 政治过程理论 •经济增长（工业化和都 •朝野互动，内外结合 党内 党内 市化） 温和派 强硬派 •收入平等 •教育普及 •通讯发达 •社会多元 党外 党外 •文化世俗化 温和派 激进派 •中产阶级的兴起 1.政治转型的原因 旧制度 制度变革 制度修正 政治行动者 制度僵化 社会结构改变 1.政治转型的原因 政治转型前的权力体系 •“民有、民治、民享”的“宪政”架构 – 军政 >> 训政 >> 宪政 (还政于民） – 权能分立 • “国民大会” • “五院” (行政、立法、司法、考试、监察） •《动员戡乱时期临时条款》 – 戒严法、 “党禁”、“报禁” • 威权统治、一党独大、强人统治（一身两任 ） 1.政治转型的原因 1.外部形势的变化 •台湾在国际社会的孤立（1971－） •两岸关系开始缓和（1979－） •美国对国民党威权统治不满（江南事件） 2.蒋经国的“新人新政”（1972－） •催台青（崔苔箐） –台湾化(李登辉, 连战, 吴伯雄) –青年化 (宋楚瑜, 马英九, 焦仁和) 1.政治转型的原因 • 选举层次的逐渐提升 • 县市长和省县议员选举（1950年代开始） • “国民大会”、“立法院”增额选举 (1972) 3.党外势力的兴起 • 党外地方势力的发展 (台北和高雄的改制) • 高雄事件（“美丽岛”事件） – 报禁和对刊物的事后审查制度（《大学杂志》 ） –施明德, 吕秀莲，陈菊／陈水扁, 谢长廷，苏 贞昌 2.政治转型的过程 1.朝野合力推动 •国民党的六项革新议题（1986.3） – “充实中央民意机构” – “强固地方自治” – “取消戒严令” – “开放民间组党” – “整顿社会治安” – “推动党务革新” •民进党“起步偷跑”（1986.9.28） “议会”政治与街头抗争的两手策略 2.政治转型的过程 2.向“宪政”回归 •“立法院”政治生态的改变 – “行政院”的立法局 •“国是会议”与民意机构的全面改选 –三月学潮的影响 •台北市长和高雄市长直接选举（1994） •最高领导人直接选举（1996） 3.政治转型的特点 1.外生性 •政治转型的启动带有明显的外生性特点，与 台湾经济的外向型发展模式，相映成趣。 •国民党在台湾地区延伸一党专制统治，是以 “动员戡乱”、“反共复国”为口实、以美、 日为后盾的政治嫁接，而非植基于本地社会、 经济发展的制度安排。 1979年台海风云变幻汇聚，从美台“断交”和中 华人民共和国政府《告台湾同胞书》的发表，到 高雄事件的爆发，披露了这一因果链条。 3.政治转型的特点 2.本土性 两岸军事对峙局面的结束和台湾在国际社会的急 剧孤立，使国民党“反攻大陆”的迷思遭到民间社 会普遍怀疑，由大陆籍国民党精英垄断资源的权力 结构，受到以党外运动为代表的本省籍政治势力的 挑战,导致原有的威权主义体制难以为继（林冈，《 两岸政治转型与两岸关系的演变》，九州出版社， 2010, pp.1-2）。 3.政治转型的特点 3.跨越性 •台湾的选举政治和政党轮替，存在先天不足 的早熟症候。台湾政治转型启动后，必须对 台湾的国际地位和两岸关系进行重新思考； 处理国民党“反共复国”迷思破除后，台湾 的身份认同和未来归宿问题。 •政党竞争早于选举制度的全面设计和规范 •行政区划的频繁变化 3.政治转型的特点 4.民粹性 •直接民主本是代议民主的补充，但在台湾的 政治现实中，“公投”却成了民进党政治人 物打选战的工具和推卸政治责任的盾牌，而 不是用于让人民直接决定某些至关重要的公 共政策。 政坛人物，从李登辉到陈水扁，从林义雄到施明 德，都能在退位后，凭借以往的个人光环，在政 治舞台上以“民之所欲”为依托，进行激情演出 ，反映了台湾“民粹式民主”或“非自由民主” 政治的特点。 结束语 • 发展论、过程论、路径论 • 外因与内因的独特结合 • 上下合力、回归“宪政” • 特点：外生、本土、跨越、民粹 • 新书推荐：朱云汉等，《台湾民主转型的 经验与启示》（北京：社会科学文献出版 社，2012年1月第1版，2013年3月第3次印 刷）