Transcript IDENTITY AND EMPIRE: RUSSIAN HISTORICAL PATTERNS

IDENTITY AND EMPIRE:
RUSSIAN HISTORICAL
PATTERNS
by
Pal TAMAS [IS HAS, Budapest]
THE EASTERN BORDERS OF
EUROPE
Antique interpretations- Tanais/Don
16.-17.c.
”
-Don, Volga, Kama,
Ob pieces
1720cca. Tatichev/Stalenberg- Urals
Danzig-Triest line
EURASIA, 116 C.E.
EURASIA, 8TH CENTURY
EURASIA, 1288
BASIC GEOPOLITICAL UNITS OF
RUSSIA
COMPOSITE BLOCKS:
1.EURO-RUSSIA
2.FAR-EASTERN RUSSIA
3.URALO-SIBIR
1-2. N-S 3.W-E.
EXTERNAL GATES:
a.Nord-East- Murmansk-Kaliningrad
b.South-West- Black Sea
c.South-East- Pacific coast
d.Nord-East-chukotka, Kamchatka, Behring tr.
RUSSIA, THE CONTINENTAL
ISLAND
The Baltic-Black sea continental trait and
the „limitrof” [V.Cimburskij]
After 1991: turninng back to Asia/Europe
imperialistic view –no mans land?
The real center?: Ekaterinburg- OrenburgKemerovo
The II. Velikorossija [M.Iljin]
GEOPOLITICAL FRAMES
Where does Europe stop?
What is the scope of the Euro-Atlantic
community?
What is the present political meaning of
Euroasia, if any?
How relevant is the term „Post-Soviet” space
at all?
„EASTERN” INTERPRETATIONS
OF EXPANSION/INTEGRATION
1. The Collecting of Lands Model
2. The Moving of Borders [Colonization
Model]
3. The Strategic Border Model
4. The Restoration Model
5. Le Monde Sans Frontiérs Model
Russia in the European Politics
Bipolarity of Europe- division on the Rhein
France/the Holy Empire…
18.c. weakening Austria. From 1726 Russia
in the European big politics
AU-SP-RU versus ENG-FR-PRUSS.
1945- elimination of the Austrian-German
eastern core, Russia is the now the Eastern
core- pushed out of the system, th west is
unipolar from that time
Russia between Europa and Asia
A. RU
subordina
ted
B. RU
integrated
C.Western
contratt.
D.
marginali
sation
Euroasian
intermissi
ons
I.
1726-1812
AU, 1807Napoleon
Napoleon
in
moscow
1812
1813-15
antinapoleon
1815-1853
holy all.
Crimean
War 185356
1857-1905
Manshuri
a, Amur,
Central
Asia
II.
Russia
Entente
1906-1917
Civil war,
foreign
interventi
on 191819
Early
1920iesexport of
revolution
Late
1920ies,
Locarno,
bolsevizm
out of
Europe
SU,
Mongolia
n
protectora
t, Japan
war
III-
MolotovRibbentro
pp, 193940
22.6.1941
Barbaross
a
1944-45
Jalta
1985-1991
Perstrojka
, army
withr.
„near
abroad”
post
198891concept
s
DISCOURSES ON EAST-WEST
BORDERS
RUSSIA
EU
CONVERSATIV Realpolitik
ES
Traditional
national
identites
MODERNIZER Ignorance of
S [LIBERALS?] geopolitics
Realpolitik
THE NEW GAME
VULNERABILITY OF THE NEW ELITES AND
STATES AS A CENTRAL PROBLEM
Primary factors:
a. External [„Western”] geopolitical interests
b. Programs of militant nation building and
consolidation
c. Short term Russian geopolitical interests
d. Major socio-economic tensions in the new
states
THE MAJOR „FRONTLINE”
a.THE NEW MIDEAST – THE CAUCASUS
as part of the region
b. Central Asia- as a borderland between
China and the Moslim world
c. Vulnerability of energy supply lines for
Europe
Different Russian-Western interests in the 3
regions. In „c” stong co-operation is
needed, but in A. and b. not.
THE GEOPOLITICAL MATRIX
EXTERNAL
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIAN
GEOPOLITICS
INTENSIVE
NATIONBUILD
SOCIO-ECON.
TENSIONS
BELORUS
x
xxx
-x
xx
UKRAINE
xx
xxx
xx
xx
ESTONIA#
xxx
x
xxx
x
LETTLAND#
xxx
x
xxx
x
LITHAUNIA#
xxx
x
xx
x
ARMENIA
xxx
x
xx
xx
GEORGIA
xx
xx
xxx
xxx
AZERBAIDZAN xxx
xx
xx?
x
TURMENIST.
xx
x
x?
x?
TADJIKISTAN
xxx
xx?
x
xxx
UZBEKISTAN
xxx
xx
x?
xxx?
KAZAHSTAN
xxx
xxx
x
x
KIRGISTAN
xx
xx
xx
xxx
MOLDOVA
x?
x?
xx
xxx
MATRIX OF LOCAL STRATEGIES
NAT.RESORCE
EXPORT
LABOR
EXPORT
„KORENIZACIJ SOCIAL
A”
HOMOGEN.
BELORUS
x?
--
x
xxx
UKRAINE
x
xxx
xx
xx
ESTONIA#
--
x
xxx
x
LETTLAND#
--
x
xxx
x
LITHAUNIA#
--
xx
xx
xx
ARMENIA
--
xxx
xx
x
GEORGIA
-
xxx
xxx
x
AZERBAIDZAN xxx
xx
xx
xx
TURMENIST.
xxx
--
xxx
xxx
TADJIKISTAN
--
xx
xx?
x
UZBEKISTAN
xx
xx
xxx
xx
KAZAHSTAN
xxx
-
xx
xx
KIRGISISTAN
x?
xxx
x?
xx
MOLDOVA
x?
xxx
x?
xx
GEOPOLITICS-LOCAL
STRATEGIES
EXPERTAL
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIAN
GEOPOLITICS
NAT.RESORCE
EXPORT
AZERI,
TURKMEN,
KAZAH
KAZAHSTAN
LABOR
EXPORT
ARMENIA
UKRAINE
„KORENIZACIJ ESTONIA,
A”
LATVIA
SOCIAL
HOMOGEN.
TURKMEN
BELORUS
INTENSIVE
NATIONBUILD
SOCIO-ECON.
TENSIONS
GEORGIA
GEORGIA,
MOLDOVA
KIRGISTAN
GEORGIA,
ESTONIA,
LATVIA
GEORGIA,
UZBEKISTAN
BELORUS
FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS
a. Who does generate Post-Soviet
underdevelopment?
b. What are the tools of a low cost „energy
imperialism” in comparison with the classical
„imperialism of free trade” [Ru-EU?] in this
region?
c. How do networks, webs, or circuits of foreign
origin divide the new political class?
d. Are members of the Post-Soviet intelligentsia
still modernization zealots?
CONCLUSIONS
A. HOTSPOTS:
B. ZONES OF EASY COMPROMISES:
C. CONFLICT AVOIDING STRATEGIES for the
local CIS elites:
a. no, or very few symbolic actions
b. selective decisions, networks with different
vectors
c. relative, or step-by-step „energy
independence”
d.readyness to compromises in local social
conflicts
FUTURE ALTERNATIVE RU-EU
SCENARIOS
1.
2.
3.
4.
Neo-Finlandization
„Baltization”
Mexicanization”
Selective-competitive co-operation