Transcript Document

Centre for Military and Strategic Studies
Protecting and Promoting Canadian Arctic
Sovereignty and Security
Rob Huebert
Northern Sovereignty and Political Geography in North America
The Association for Canadian Studies in the United States
(ACSUS)
Washington, DC, June 14, 2010
[email protected]
Main Themes
• A New Arctic International Region is
Forming on a Global Basis
• The Arctic is a state of massive
transformation
– Climate Change
– Resource Development – (was up to a high
$140+ barrel of oil- now $80 barrel)
– Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization
Main Questions
• What is the impact of a Globalizing Arctic
on Canadian Arctic Relations?
• What is the nature of this new region? Are
we witnessing the birth of an Arctic Arms
Race? Or is it a new Co-operative Arctic
Regime?
• How does it impact “old” issues for
Canada?
• How does it create new issues/opportunities
for Canada?
Sovereignty and Security
Two Interdependent Concepts
• Sovereignty for Canada by itself is
Meaningless
– Sovereignty is a means and not an end
– Canadian tendency (academic, policy and
public) to separate the two interdependent
concepts
• Sovereignty must be used to
I) Provide Security for Canadians
II) Allow for the provision and promotion of
Canadian well-being
Security in the Canadian Arctic
Traditional
Security
Military
Diplomatic
Traditional
Security/
NonTraditional
Security
Policing
NonTraditional
Security
Environmental
Economic
Cultural
Confounding Nature of Arctic
Sovereignty and Security
• Non-linear Progression of Factors
– Hard to understand interaction of change
– Events can occur very quickly eg. Economic
crisis/oil spills
– Tendency to believe if things are going well
now they will continue to go well
• Complexity of North
– Will remain a very expensive and difficult
region to operate in
Issue 1: Legal Status of Northern
Waterways: Northwest Passage
• Canadian position – Internal Waters
• US/EU position – International Strait
• Issue is over Control of Trans-Polar
Shipping
• 2 main incidents 1969/70; 1985
– 1969 Manhattan was test run for Alaska Oil
– 1985 Polar Sea was operational voyage
Northwest Passages
Issue 2: Arctic Maritime Boundary
Disputes: Beaufort Sea
• Beaufort Sea : Canada and US
• Control of Resources; Determination of
Environmental Standards
Issue 3: US Multi-Lateral Reluctance
versus Canadian Promotion
• Finland and Canada versus US – Arctic
Environmental Protection Strategy (AEPS)
• Canada vs US - Arctic Council
–
–
–
–
Role of northern P(p)eople(s)
Treaty versus Agreement
Environment versus Comprehensive
Permanent Secretariat versus Volunteer
The New Issues/Opportunities
• Climate Change and Melting Ice
• Economic Promise/Environmental
Challenges
• Changing International Law
• Changing Geopolitical Realties
The Image of Change: Accessibility
The Melting Ice:
Movement of Ice Sept 2007-April 2008
Source: Canadian Ice Service
The Economics: The Hope of Resources
Oil and Gas:Oil
Resources
of
the
North
and Gas
Source: AMAP
US Geological Survey Arctic 2008
• To determine the sources of traditional
energy supplies
• 30% of undiscovered Natural Gas in Arctic
– Mainly in Eurasian Arctic
• 13% of undiscovered Oil in Arctic
– Mainly in North American Arctic
New Oil and Gas Activity –North
America
• Exxon/Mobil, Imperial - Cdn Beaufort
Sea/Mackenzie Delta: $585 million five
years 2008-2013
• BP – Cdn Beaufort Sea/Mackenzie Delta:
$1.2 billion
• Shell – off Alaska North Slope
– Currently preparing for drilling
But Change comes quickly..
• Shale Gas
• US as gas exporter?
• Deepwater Horizon
• April 2010
• Will BP survive?
Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction &
boundaries in the Arctic
www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic
Canadian Effort for Article 76
Natural Resources Canada
Canada US Cooperation Article 76
CGS Louis St. Laurent and USS Healy
But Continued Disagreements…
New Multi-Lateral Attention
• Arctic Treaty versus Existing Framework
• Ilulissat Meeting 2008
– Role of UNCLOS
– Issue of US membership
• Chelsea Quebec 2010
– US critique of Canada
– A5 not “inclusive”
New Geopolitics of the North
• Russia
– Renewed Assertiveness/ Petrodollars
• United States
– Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act
– International Role as remaining Superpower
• Norway
– Refocus on North/ Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia
• Denmark
– Issues with Greenland – social; energy
– Rebuilding Armed Forces
• Iceland
– Economic melt-down/Volcano melt-down
• Finland/Sweden
– Closer cooperation with NATO
• Canada
– Re-examining its Arctic capabilities
– Renewed Assertiveness
Policy Statements
• United States
– National Security Presidential Directive 66 Arctic Region Policy (January 9
2009)
– USN Arctic Roadmap
• Russia
– Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007-2015
– Principles of State Policy in the Arctic to 2020, (September, 2008)[
• Norway
– The Soria Moria Declaration on International Policy,”(April 2007)
– Norwegian Defence 2008 (June 2008):
• Canada
– Northern Strategy (July 2009)
• Denmark
– Danish Defence Agreement 2010-2014 Copenhagen (June 2009)
Source: http://cmss.ucalgary.ca/foreignpolicy
New and Developing Arctic Force
Capabilities
• Russia
– 6 - Borey SSBN; 2- Yasen SSN; 5-6 Carrier Groups;
New Bomber 2020
• United States
– F-22, Virginia class; ABM
• Norway
– Fridtjof Nansen Frigates; F-35; Svalbard
• Canada
– Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels
• Denmark
– Navy: Thesis; Knud Ramussen; Flyvefisken classes
Exercises
• Russia
– 8-9,000 troops 09; 2 Delta’s IV 09; Bomber Patrols
• United States
– Northern Edge – 1993-09; 8-10,000 troops
• Norway
– Cold Response -2006-2010; 7-8,000 troops
• Canada
– Op Nanook 2002-2009 – 750 troops
• Finland/Sweden
– Loyal Arrow 2009 3000 troops
Renewed Russian Strengths
• 1990’s Period of Reduction
– AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub
Decommissioning
• 2000’s Renewal
• Russian State Rearmament Programme
2007-2015
• 6 SSBN 995 Borey
• 2 SSN 885 Yasen
• 6 Diesel 677 Lada
Yury Dolgoruky
Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear)
Arctic Flights, August 18, 2007
• If US/EU position on Northwest Passage is correct
then these aircraft have the right of over-flight
•Replacement announced to be built by 2020
US Arctic Forces
• Submarine Forces:
– Seawolf and Los Angles Class
– Virginia Class is now ice capable
• Missile Development
– Missile Defence – Ft Greely
USS Honolulu 2003
USS Texas 2009
Deployment of F-22 to Alaska
• 186 F-22 to be built
• 36 are being deployed
to Alaska
• 20% of total arsenal
Fort Greely – Delta Junction
“New” US Concerns
• National Security Presidential Directive 66/
Arctic Region Policy (January 9 2009)
• “The United States is prepared to operate either
independently or in conjunction with other states
to safe-guard these interests”
– missile defence and early warning;
– deployment of sea and air systems for strategic sealift,
strategic deterrence, maritime presence, and maritime
security operations;
– ensuring freedom of navigation and over-flight.
US Arctic Exercises
Northern Edge
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•
•
•
•
Annual US northern military exercise
Annual even June 1993-2004; 2006-2009
10,000-8,000 troops
200 aircraft
1 aircraft carrier
Arrival of New Actors
• European Union
– Membership on Arctic Council
• China
– Polar Bases: 2 ½ Antarctica; 1 Arctic
– Arctic Vessels – Xue Long; 10,000 ton new research
icebreaker
– Interests: Climate Change; Navigation; Resources
– Membership on Arctic Council
Canadian Arctic Policy
•
•
•
•
•
New Military Operations since 2002
6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels
Nanisivik Refueling Facility
Resolute Bay Training Facility
Increased Rangers Patrols 4000 to 5000
-Number 58 to 61
-Training and Equipment
• Northern Watch
• Throne Speech Oct 2007
– Northern Strategy (Sovereignty/Security)
Canadian Security Actions (cont.)
• Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker
• June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy
(Harper White Paper)
• Arctic Strategy July 2009
- One of four pillars on Arctic Sovereignty and
Security
• Postponement (Cancelation?) of Joint Support
Vessels
• Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg
(shipping season 2010)
Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel
General Arrangements – Upper Deck
15
Source: Canadian Navy
B
Canadian Base Location
Alert
Resolute Bay
Yellowknife
Iqaluit
Ft. Greely
St. John’s
Where are Canada and US Headed?
• Circumpolar states have called for cooperation
– What will be the new international governance
regime?
• Circumpolar states are building up their combat
capable force for the Arctic
– New Equipment – Ice and Combat Capable
– New Policies – Unilateral “concern”
– New Training
Conclusion
• Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after
end of Cold War
• New concerns are arising as Arctic is
perceived/becoming more accessible
• Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace
• Issue will be understanding intent of old and new
actors in the region
• Canada-US need to have a new “Arctic”
Understanding
Conclusion: What Does Canada and
US Do?
• Will need to resolve old boundary disputes
• Will need to coordinate on Arctic
Governance
• Canada needs to ensure that its has a full
and robust Surveillance and Enforcement
Capability for the Arctic