Transcript POLAND - EU Presidency 2011

European Foreign Policy
Quo Vadis, Europa?
Eugeniusz Smolar
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
European Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy OPPORTUNITIES
!!!
 To further EU’s interests and
objectives
 To strengthen EU’s role in
the world
 To limit the uncertainties
in international relations
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European Foreign Policy
CHALLENGES
!
A task difficult to implement
 27, 28, … sovereign Member States
 Consequences of the Lisbon Treaty
 Threats, problems, responsibilities
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European Foreign Policy
and on top of it all…
Present economic and financial crisis !!!
Спасите наше души…
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27, 28, … and more sovereign Member States
 Large and small with:
 different history and political traditions,
 different foreign relations and…
 different 27 geopolitics.
 Can the European Union have common foreign policy?
look at the map…
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THE OBJECTIVE:
To make Europe „Whole, free and at peace”…
The consequences of enlargement
6 – 7 – 12 – 15 – 27… and growing

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Candidate Countries:
• Croatia – 2013
• The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
• Turkey (?)
In the future: other countries of Western Balkans?
WHO ELSE? Who knows???

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European Foreign Policy
The enlargement became
the most successful foreign policy tool
of growing European Union.
Broadening the area of peace, stability and
economic affluence
Exporting democratic values and benefits of
free and open market
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Lisbon Treaty – BIG Change !
• One amended treaty and not many treaties
• OFFICIAL DESCRIPTION OF INTENIONS:
„It is designed to make the EU more democratic, efficient and
transparent, and thereby able to tackle global challenges such
as security, climate change and sustainable development”.
• More efficient, also in Union’s relations with the
world
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IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS
• The EU became a legal entity with capability and
competences towards all external actors:
o Other states or groups of states;
o International organisations: United Nations, NATO,
OSCE, Council of Europe, IMF, G8 or G20, etc.
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• Creation of the post of High Representative of the
European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security
Policy
• Catherine Ashton, High Representative, as VicePresident of the European Commission, ensures the
consistency and coordination of the EU external
action.
• The High Representative is assisted by the European
External Action Service (EEAS) – new diplomatic
service.
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THE COUNCIL
THE COMMISSION
THE PARLIAMENT
HIGH REPRESENTATIVE
EUROPEAN EXTERNAL
{ THE BUDGET }
ACTION SERVICE
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WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE? ЧТО ДЕЛАТЬ???
Old and new threats known in a diplomatic
language as challenges
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Instability in the Balkans
Afghanistan
Iran
Broader Middle East
Neighbourhood in the South – the Arab Spring
Neighbourhood in the East
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European Foreign Policy
 BIG WORRY:
Energy security
including our friend
Further economic development
and competitiveness depends
on it.
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International organised crime
Cyber attacks
Piracy
Terrorism
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TO DEAL WITH ALL THOSE „CHALLENGES”
we have Member State’s
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Central and local administration
Police
Security services
Armies
Money
Diplomacies
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COORDINATION CAPACITIES OF THE EU
Now we have the European diplomacy
WORK IN PROGRESS
1 year-old baby
Natural tensions:
 With the interests and diplomacies of SOVEREIGN
Member States
o Particularly of big and active Member States – Germany,
France, United Kingdom
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European Foreign Policy
The task is to:
 Integrate agreed policies at the EU level into:
 European Foreign and Security Policy
 Common Security and Defence Policy
 Trade through norms and regulations, access to the
biggest market in the world (some 450 million consumers)
 International aid
 Visa-free travel and controlled immigration
 Measures against and soft and hard security threats
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European Foreign Policy
The task:
 Create EU and services institutions and assure
mechanisms of integration with:
 Member States’ policies, institutions and services
 International bodies and organisations
 There is a new relationship between domestic issues,
economic development, social stability and foreign
policy, f.ex. immigration. Look at Greece, Portugal,
Spain, Italy or France now.
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European Foreign Policy
We have to be prepared as we all learned
to expect the unexpected
 Wars
 Revolutions
 Terrorist attacks
 Energy flow stoppage
and we know that…
shit happens
!
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European Foreign Policy
Our closest friends,
THE AMERICANS
should better tell us
about THEIR plans.
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It would also help
if we would
know his plans…
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Or their plans…
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RUSSIA – EU’s NEIGHBOUR AND PARTNER
 Russia’s foreign and defence policy
 Difficult relations with the EU, NATO and the U.S.
 Energy
 Trade


 EU – Russia 
 NATO – Russia 
 US – Russia 
Self-evident
WTO membership important
Neighbourhood
Neighbourhood – Enlargement?
Missile Defence, neighbourhood
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 Problematic relations with the sovereign states
in our common neighbourhood
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WHY NATO when we discuss the EU?
European membership of the EU and NATO
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Difficulties with formulation of:
EFSP – European Foreign and Security Policy
&
CSDP – Common Security and Defence Policy
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THE REASONS
 Generation change – a war in Europe???
Abstract concept after 65 years of peace
 Lack of strategic thinking and political will
 Diverse interests and traditions of MS
 The EU has interests but can hardly have
common GEOPOLITICS
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A particular challenge:
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS
 NATO is the main mechanism of discussing security and
negotiating possible actions;
 Majority of EU members wish to strengthen
EFSP & CSDP, but without weakening NATO;
 Many MS do not wish to see the EU as an actor engaging
in hard security.
 THE EU HAVE BEEN REGARDED AS A ‘SOFT SECURITY’
ACTOR
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European Foreign Policy
What has changed lately?
 Clear weakness of the European defence capabilities.
o The Europeans together have bigger army than the US but
can effectively use less than 1/3.
o To many relics of the Cold War strategies: armament and
deployments.
o Cuts in defence spending.
 There are „challenges” and instabilities but no threat
of a major war in Europe.
 Expeditionary/defence capabilities are now needed.
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THREATS ARE NOW COMING FROM
DISTAND LANDS
There are no illusions that just
”soft power”
will persuade those guys
to occupy themselves
with something peaceful…
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MAKE LOVE
NOT WAR
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There were 22 EU missions abroad since the 90th:
 Military: Bosnia, Chad, off the Somali coast,
completed – in Macedonia and two in the
Democratic Republic of Congo.
 Paramilitary: to reform the security sector in the
Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea-Bissau,
completed in the Sudanese region of Darfur.
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European Foreign Policy
EU missions abroad…
 Civilian: mainly policing operations, in Afghanistan,
the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bosnia, Kosovo,
Macedonia, and Palestine.
 EU civilian observers have also been stationed in
Georgia since the war of August 2008, as well as at
the Rafah border crossing in the Palestinian Gaza
Strip.
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EU Missions Objectives:
 To save lives (stop the civil war)
 To mediate in international conflicts
 To assure stability and help with the reconstruction
 Nation-building in weak states
 EU International Aid – effective tool of
EU foreign policy
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THE CASE OF LIBYA
 Not EU operation!
French-British led with
international support
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Britain did not want EU involvement, always
investing into the future of NATO;
 France did not want NATO and was persuaded
by Obama to accept it;
 Germany (and Poland)
decided to go on holidays…
Common approach at its best???
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European Foreign Policy
LIBYA IS NOT A GAME-CHANGER
 It is a ‘coalition of the willing’ with France and
the UK in the driving seat
 The US really took a back-seat (a shock to many)
 The EU will remain a „soft power” power, like in
Tunisia, Egypt or mediating in the Israeli –
Palestinian conflict
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The participants in Libya campaign realised their
relative weakness – limited capabilities
 Will Europe
do something about it???
 Probably YES
but not as the EU
for years to come.
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There could be no
such animal…
determined British gentlemen
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European Foreign Policy
There is and… there is no European Foreign
and Security Policy
at the moment,
but we are working on it.
 We have
o Experiences
o Institutional structure
 Political will follows the needs
CRISIS ALWAYS HELPS
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Immediate challenge: the Neighbourhood
SOUTH AND EAST
How to change THREATS into shared OPPORTUNITIES
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From diverse interests, lack of trust and
mutual recriminations to collective
responsibility.
We do not pretend to be able to take
responsibility for global security.
But we all have to contribute to global security
and development.
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We could build such policy with you
Russia might even join the EU
You are welcome!
Thank you for your attention
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