Transcript A vision for the national VET system

Workforce Development
and the TAFE sector
National TAFE Council AGM
15 January 2010
Robin Shreeve
CEO, Skills Australia
Higher education will be 'on its knees'
after cuts
By Nicholas Timmins, Public Policy Editor
Published: January 13 2010 02:00 | Last updated: January 13
2010 02:00
The spending cuts that are set to hit higher
education during the next few years risk
bringing an 800-year-old success story "to
its knees", top universities have warned the
government.
With cuts on the horizon that could total
£2.5bn - or a third of current annual
spending - the Russell Group of 20 leading
universities has warned that "it has taken
more than 800 years to create one of the
world's greatest education systems, and it
looks like it will take just six months to
bring it to its knees".
Skills Australia: focus on the future
 Philip Bullock
 Professor Gerald Burke
 Sharan Burrow
 Dr Michael Keating AC
 Marie Persson
Skills Australia will provide the
 Heather Ridout
 Keith Spence
Government with
recommendations on current and
future skills needs (and) inform
Australia’s workforce development
needs …
Julia Gillard, Second Reading Speech, Skills
Australia Bill 2008
Major initiatives
 Foundations For The Future – VET
national regulation
 Workforce Futures – unleashing
productivity, including implications for
VET
Productivity, participation and inclusion
 Examine and plan
for the demand
for skills in the
future
Workforce
Futures
Papers to promote
discussion
Towards an Australian
Workforce Development
Strategy
 Better
coordination
across education,
government and
industry sectors
 Improve the value
from skills
investment; and
the relationship
between skills and
productivity
Demand for future skills
Planning for an
uncertain future
Modelling and
forecasts
Current
workforce
trends
3 Scenarios
(Shell Group)
Access
Economics
Analysis current
& trend data
Background Paper 1
Where are we headed?
Are skills enough?
How do we get there?
Agreement on national skill priorities and a shared approach by
governments
Possible futures: workforce growth to 2025
Access Economics modelling
Projected total employment growth rates 1
Number of
people in the
Australian
workforce in
2025 (based on
the three
scenarios):
Open Doors:
15.3 million
Low-trust
globalisation:
13.7 million
Flags:
12.5 million
1. Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)
Modelling findings
A shortfall in the supply of qualifications – most
pronounced in 2015, reducing by 2025.
Relatively weak demand for Certificate III and IV
under each scenario and strong demand for
graduates at bachelor level.
Skilled migration will meet demand for
qualifications except in highest growth scenario.
What other policy responses are needed?
Supply and demand
Access Economics modelling
The projected supply of qualifications less the projected labour
market demand 1
THE THREE SCENARIOS
Open Doors
By 2015
Flags
Demand
770 000
Demand
646 000
Demand
540 000
Supply
533 000
Supply
524 000
Supply
506 000
BALANCE
By 2025
Low-trust
Globalisation
-237 000
BALANCE
-122 000
BALANCE
- 34 000
Demand
828 000
Demand
645 000
Demand
500 000
Supply
659 000
Supply
620 000
Supply
556 000
BALANCE
-25 000
BALANCE
BALANCE
-169 000
However, skilled migration plays a significant role in supplementing
the supply of qualifications, and if it remains at current levels, these
deficits may be made up through Australia’s skilled migrant intake.
1. Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)
+56 000
‘Matching’ skills and jobs in fluid labour
markets?
People may not seek
or find careers in their
field of learning
Initial education or
training becomes less
relevant over time
Skills are more than
qualifications
40% end up in jobs which
match their VET study
45% workers change
jobs every three years
Importance of generic,
cognitive and
interpersonal skills in a
service-based economy
Planning for ‘specialised’ occupations
PROPOSED CRITERIA FOR SPECIALISED OCCUPATIONS
 Long lead time – those skills which are highly specialised
and require extended learning and preparation time
 4 years or more for HE courses; 3 years or more to achieve VET
qualification
 High use – those skills which are deployed for the uses
intended (that is, there is a good occupational ‘fit’)
 There is a more than 50% match between the training and the
destination occupation
 Significant disruption – where the opportunity cost of the
skills being in short supply is high (eg registered nurse or doctor)
 High information – where the quality of information about
the occupation is adequate
Strong growth in education sector occupations
Projected average employment growth per annum 2010 - 2025 1
3.5
School teachers
3
University and
vocational
teachers
Per cent
2.5
Misc. education
professionals
2
1.5
All industries
average
1
0.5
0
Open doors
Low-trust
globalisation
Flags
Education and training is expected to grow at a much faster pace than in the recent past as
a consequence of new government education and training policies.
Workforce Futures: Background Paper One
1. Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)
Evidence of skill under-use
People (number in ‘000 and per cent) with a non-school
qualification employed at a lower level 1
Complexities:
 Graduates
with
qualifications
exceeding
job needs
 Employers
find difficulty
in recruiting
1. ABS, Survey of education and work 2001 and 2007, unpublished data using ASCO coding, Cat no.6227.0. The bars are percentages, with
actual numbers of students in ‘000s also noted.
The way forward for VET
Building education and
training provider capacity to
meet future skills needs…
Are separate streams of funding necessary?
 Individuals enrolled in publicly funded
VET programs
 Enterprise: public funding for the
application and development of skills in
the workplace
Benefits from improving course completions
 Monitoring attendance and performance
 Providing additional learning support to
encourage completion
 Improving the fit between course selection and
career choice
 Lower drop-out rates
The completion rate for
apprentices and trainees who
commenced training in 2003
was 48.5 per cent.
NCVER Apprentices & Trainees 2008 Annual
Features of VET enrolments
Modes of delivery in public VET - 2006 1
13%
Campus based
7%
Remote access
Employment based
5%
Other/Not applicable
75%
1. NCVER National VET Provider Collection (2006)
25 per cent
of VET
subject
enrolments
in 2008
were not job
or business
related
NCVER unpublished data
The ageing TAFE workforce
45
40
Per cent
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Age group
1996
2001
67% of TAFE practitioners are over 45 years
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (1996, 2001b, 2006a).
2006
Older VET professionals concentrated in
TAFE sector
1997
55
50
% aged 45-64 years
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All other organisations
TAFE
Training provider
Source: ABS Survey of Education and Training (1997, 2001a, 2005)
2001
2005
Action needed on VET workforce development
 A workforce development strategy for the tertiary
education sector
 Raising adult core skill levels
 Addressing the complex skills of vulnerable
jobseekers
 Encouraging more VET-industry partnerships
Workforce Development
and the TAFE sector
National TAFE Council AGM