Transcript A vision for the national VET system

CEET 14th Annual National Conference
Issues for the VET sector
in the context of the
National Workforce Development Strategy
29 October 2010
Robin Shreeve
CEO, Skills Australia
Skills Australia – activities and initiatives
Skilled
Occupation
List
(SOL)
The challenges ahead:
how is Australia faring?
Productivity?
Participation?
Sustainability?
Social
inclusion?
How can the Australian VET system best provide the workforce
capability required for a productive, sustainable and inclusive future?
Process for the development of
Australian Workforce Futures
Workforce and
education
trends
Planning for an
uncertain future
Modelling and
projections
Analysis
historic data
3 Scenarios
Access
Economics
(Shell Group)
Workforce Futures - Overview and background papers
Consultation with industry, providers, states/territories and peak bodies
Where are we headed?
Where do we want to be?
How do we get there?
Australian Workforce Development Strategy
Possible futures: workforce growth to 2025
Access Economics modelling
Projected total employment growth rates 1
Number of
people in the
Australian
workforce in
2025 (based on
the three
scenarios):
Open Doors:
15.3 million
Low Trust
Globalisation:
13.7 million
Flags:
12.5 million
-----------------------Current:
10.7 million
Source:
1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)
Workforce participation levels
Comparison of OECD countries: people aged 15+
Australia
Groups to target
► Men of prime working age (25 to 64 years) --- 10th lowest of OECD countries
► Women (aged 25 to 34 years) --- 10th lowest of OECD countries
► Older Australians (55 to 64) --- below NZ, Canada and the US
Source:
1 OECD, Online OECD employment data base statistics for 2008, people aged 15 and over (accessed Feb 2010)
Supply and demand
Access Economics modelling
The projected supply of students less the projected labour
market demand 1
THE THREE SCENARIOS
Open Doors
By 2015
Flags
Demand
770 000
Demand
646 000
Demand
540 000
Supply
533 000
Supply
524 000
Supply
506 000
BALANCE
By 2025
Low-trust
Globalisation
-237 000
BALANCE
-122 000
BALANCE
- 34 000
Demand
828 000
Demand
645 000
Demand
500 000
Supply
659 000
Supply
620 000
Supply
556 000
BALANCE
-25 000
BALANCE
BALANCE
-169 000
+56 000
Skilled migration plays a significant role in supplementing the supply of
qualifications, and if domestic supply remains at current levels, these
deficits may be made up through Australia’s skilled migrant intake.
Source:
1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)
Modelling findings
A shortfall in the supply of qualifications – most
pronounced up to 2015, reducing by 2025.
Demand is greatest at diploma and above levels
under each scenario with strongest demand for
graduates at bachelor level.
Skilled migration will contribute to the supply of
qualifications.
Key findings and recommendations
►
Forecasting for all occupations is both impossible and impractical. Our focus
should be on ‘specialised occupations’ which we can and should plan for.
The 80/20 rule applies.
►
The current capacity of our tertiary education system will need to increase
by 3% p.a, to deliver the qualifications and skills Australia needs.
►
Workforce participation needs to rise from 65% to 69% to provide the
workers and skills we need plus improve social inclusion.
►
Numeracy and literacy are a major barrier to increased participation and a
national plan with targets and funding is needed.
►
Enterprises need to make better use of the skills of
their employees. While some employers are
concerned about future skills shortages, at the same
time 30% of workers say their skills are not being
effectively utilised.
It’s not just skills: it’s how well they’re used
People (numbers in ‘000 and %) with a non-school
qualification employed at a lower level 1
Source:
1 Skills Australia, Workforce Futures Background Paper Two (Oct 2009)
In 2005 and
2007, 37 per
cent and 40
per cent of
employers
respectively
reported that
the current
skill level of
their staff was
above what
was required
in terms of
organisational
needs. 1
The challenges ahead...
►
Australian productivity has been negligible
►
Have had recent periods of negative growth
►
Innovation levels are lagging
►
Challenge is to keep abreast of rapid changes in the labour
market, new occupations and ways of working
►
Requires new ways of working flexibly with learners –
especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds and on the
margins of the workforce
►
LLN training, mentoring, case management and partnering with
other service providers (especially adult and community education
sector) will be an increasing focus if participation is to grow
►
What type of VET products are best for the future? Are training
packages flexible enough? Or do we need looser concept of skills?
An opportunity to be grasped
•
Skills Australia’s targets for
increased tertiary enrolments –
3% per annum for next 15 years
•
Skills Australia’s targets for
increased workforce participation
– 65% to 69%
•
COAG growth targets – halve
number of people without
certificate 3; double number of
people with a Diploma or above
Issues will move from the
supply to the demand side
Is VET up to the challenge?
A lot to be proud of:
Australia has a very well
developed VET system, which
enjoys a high degree of
confidence…..
Positives and achievements of the system
•
National System
•
Industry led, competency based
•
Strong recognition of Institute
and TAFE brands
•
Strong performance amongst
disadvantaged groups
•
Strong connections to industry
and engagement with employers
•
Formation of large public
providers the size of universities
•
Wider choice of provider – but
TAFE still dominant
Negatives for system
•
Flat lining enrolments
•
Declining funding contributions
from many states and territories
•
Declining $/AHC ratios
•
Poor completion rates apprenticeships
•
Quality of system called into
question by improper activities of
some providers with international
students
•
Lack of transparency about
outcomes
•
Ageing and often casualised
workforce
NCVER Projections of State and Territory
Completion Rates
Course
completion
(all)
Course
Completion
(FT Under 25
– no previous
VET qual)
Module (all)
Module (FT
under 25- no
previous VET
qualification)
NSW
40.7
49
79.3
78
Vic
22.4
30.6
77.5
76.4
Qld
19.6
27.7
81.4
77.3
SA
27.7
39.2
87.4
84.5
WA
24.4
36.8
74.7
77.7
Tas
19.5
33.1
79.9
80.3
NT
11
17.9
72.8
77.6
ACT
41
58.9
80.4
79.4
Australia
27.1
34.7
79.1
77.5
Qualification Success, Retention and Achievement
rates in English FE Colleges
Year
Whole course
success rate
Retention
rate
Achievement
rate
2006/07
75.3
85.6
87.9
2007/08
78.8
87.8
89.8
2008/09
79.2
88.3
89.6
Governments find Apprenticeship attractive –but do
employers, employees and students?
Re-engineering apprenticeships
for lifelong learning
Completions loware they an
attractive option?
Regulatory
culture
Complexity
Focus on quality
of workplace
learning overdue
Unclear
responsibility for
support: AACs;
S/Ts; providers;
employers?
Fragmented
leadership
Inconsistency
A more attractive option
for employers and
learners?
Apprenticeships – an attractive
learning pathway?
Source: NCVER (2010) Apprenticeships and trainees 2009 annual, supporting data, state and territory tables
Measuring outcomes, rather than inputs
Trade apprentice commencements and completions
1
90000
Apprenticeship
completion rates
however are falling (as
a proportion) 2
80000
70000
60000
50000
For those who
commenced in:
40000
30000
Commenced
Completed
20000
1995: 54% completed
1999: 48% completed
10000
2003: 44.2% competed
0
20022003
20032004
20042005
20052006
20062007
20072008
20082009
Possible reasons for non-completion? 3
Changed jobs
Lost job
Low wages
Not liking the type of work
Problems with the workplace or the employer
Sources:
1 NCVER Apprentices collection, unpublished data
2 Ball, K & John, D (2005), Apprentice and Trainee completion rates; NCVER (2009) Apprentices and Trainees Annual 2009. There is a break in
series between the 1999 cohort and the 2003 cohort, so figures are not directly comparable
3 Snell, D & Hart, A, (200*) ‘Reasons for Non-completion and Dissatisfaction Among Apprentices and Trainees: A Regional Case Study’ and NCVER
Revitalising the apprenticeship model
Skills Australia proposes the following areas
as essential reforms for revitalisation of the
apprenticeship system and making it an
attractive option for a vocational outcome
► Quality and flexibility
► Shifting from a regulatory to a
learner-centred culture
► Overcoming fragmented leadership
► Competency-based progression
A new qualification pathway for
apprenticeships?
Source: Proposed apprenticeship structure, BCP Consulting
Government funding for TAFE has flat-lined
Public VET funding relative to other sectors
1
Skills
Australia has
raised
concerns
about
Government
funding for
VET in recent
years…
compared to
funding for
schools and
higher
education.
Source:
1 Peter Noonan Consulting (March 2010), Investment in VET (Report to the Board of Skills Australia), unpublished
VET operating revenue - by stream
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2001
2002
Ancillary trading & other
2003
2004
Student fees and charges
2005
2006
Fee for Service
Source:
Peter Noonan Consulting (March 2010), Investment in VET (Report to the Board of Skills Australia), unpublished
2007
Australian Govt
2008
2009
State & Territory Govt
Trends in funding and resource allocation
• Entitlement models – funding follows the individual student
(Victoria and SA)
• Entitlement model “last nail in the coffin of an industry led
system” – John Hart, Restaurant and Catering Association
• “Firstness” – public subsidy to first qualification only at a
particular level
• Enterprise responsive stream – like Enterprise Based PPP
• “Dead weight” – enterprises using public funding to support
training they would have done anyway
Who should pay for growthwhat’s a fair balance?
► Governments
►Overall contribution growing
►Shifts in respective shares
► Individuals
►Whom/what should be subsidised?
►Scope for increased contribution?
► Enterprises
►Scope to leverage increased
contribution?
► Fees for service growing
►Risky dependence on international
education revenue?
Quality
• Inadequate regulation –
bureaucratic but ineffective.
(Overseas students). Lots of
audits. Being addressed
through new National VET
Regulator
• Lack of transparency about
outcomes (collected but not
made public)
• Inadequate external
moderation or validation of
assessments
New remit....
• Assisting with better
utilisation of skills
• Innovation in
industry
• Sustaining the green
agenda
VET in a new Tertiary Sector
• More “Duals”
• Uncouple institutions from sectors
• Polytechnics
• Degrees in TAFE
• Distraction from core business of
Foundation, Trade and Technician
Training
• Accentuate division between
Institution and Workplace Learning
Lifting VET’s reputation
providers leading from the front
► Quality and delivery of outcomes – from
‘compliance focus’ to excellence
► Using data and intelligence
► Key performance indicators that
focus on outcomes and outputs
(completions and student
destinations) rather than volume
and activity (ASCH and enrolments)
► Transparency (and accountability)
► Linkages between sectors
► Investment levels and market design
► Governance arrangements
Creating a future direction for VET:
three pillars
Improving
the VET
Experience
Lifting
performance
Governance
and funding
Opportunities for
• Higher proportion of workplace and
work-based delivery
• Better support for innovation
in enterprises
• Better support for more effective
skills utilisation
CEET 14th Annual National Conference
Thank you
Robin Shreeve
CEO, Skills Australia