Transcript No Slide Title

New Approaches to the Development
of the U.S. Computing Work Force
Assessing the Issues
American Association for the Advancement of Science
San Francisco, California
February 19, 2007
Eric Roberts
Professor of Computer Science, Stanford University
Co-chair of the ACM Education Board
Student Interest has Plummeted
A UCLA study of students entering college shows that the
number of students listing CS as a possible major has declined
significantly in recent years. The total number of students is
now below the pre-boom plateau and continues to fall rapidly.
The number of women choosing CS majors is at an all-time low.
Source: Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, 2005
The Decline Has Attracted Media Attention
Computing’s
Lost Allure
May 27, 2005
By KATIE HAFNER
Published: May 22, 2003, Thursday
Student Interest in Computer Science Plummets
Technology companies struggle to fill vacant positions
ON a sunny May afternoon, Brian Harvey’s introductory computer science class at the University of
California
convened
for the last time before the final exam. By the time Dr. Harvey was full tilt into his
By
ANDREA
L. FOSTER
lecture, reviewing recursive functions and binary search trees, the cavernous hall was lightly peppered
with about
100saw
students,
backpacks atclasses
their sides,
a few
legstoslung
overNow,
the backs
of empty
seats. jobs are
Students
once
computer-science
as their
ticket
wealth.
as more
technology
outsourced to other countries, such classes are seen as a path to unemployment.
Sparse attendance is, of course, an end-of-semester inevitability. Many students viewed the lecture by
Webcast,
at all.students’
But more
significantly,
just 350 is
students
signed
fornumber
the course
this spring,
in
New
data ifshow
interest
in the discipline
in a free
fall.upThe
of newly
declared
striking contrast tomajors
enrollment
in the32fall
of 2000,
when
lecture
hallfall
wasofengorged
at the starttoofa
computer-science
declined
percent
from
the the
fallsame
of 2000
to the
2004, according
the semester
with
students
sitting
and standing
in every
availablewhich
pocketrepresents
of space. computer
...
report
released
this700
month
by the
Computing
Research
Association,
scientists
in industry and academe. Another survey, from the Higher Education Research Institute at the University
Today, empty classroom seats, like the vacant offices once occupied by high-flying start-ups, are among
of California at Los Angeles, shows that the number of incoming freshmen who expressed an interest in
the unmistakable repercussions of the dot-com bust.
majoring in computer science has plummeted by 59 percent in the last four years.
At the height of the Internet boom in the late 90’s, computer science talent was in such demand that
Students’ waning enthusiasm for the field worries technology companies that must work harder to fill
recruiters offered signing bonuses to students who agreed to drop out of school. Now, spooked by layoffs
vacant positions, as well as researchers who need a steady supply of intellectual talent to fuel scientific
and disabused of visions of overnight riches, many undergraduates are turning away from computer
breakthroughs. Computer scientists are already struggling to maintain basic research despite sharply
science as if it were somehow cursed.
reduced financial support from government agencies.
The Crisis in Computing Education
That there is currently a crisis in computing education
is not in doubt.
— McGettrick et al., SIGCSE 2007
• CRA estimates that computing enrollments have fallen
between 40 and 50 percent since 2000.
• This decline has been even more rapid among women and
minority students, reducing diversity as the pool shrinks.
• At present, countries throughout the developed world are
training far fewer people needed to fill the available positions.
• In the United States, there are now more jobs in the IT sector
than there were at the height of the dot-com boom.
• The factors that lead to declining enrollments are complex and
highly interconnected. There are no silver bullets.
• Increasingly, institutions are reacting to bolster short-term
enrollments at the expense of long-term employment needs.
Why this Decline is Relevant to AAAS
Though
technologyWhile it is the
itself ainformation
discipline, computational
powered
revolution
is all
accelerating,
this
science serves
to advance
of science. The
country has
not yet awakened
to the central
most
scientifically
important
and
role
played bypromising
computational
science
and
economically
research
frontiers
high-end
computing
scientific,
in
the 21st
century in
willadvanced
be conquered
by
social
science,
biomedical,
and engineering
those most
skilled
with advanced
computing
research; defense
national security;
and
technologies
andandcomputational
science
industrial innovation.
Together
with theory
applications.
But despite
the fundamental
and
experimentation,
computational
science
contributions
of computational
science
to
now constitutes
pillar” of
discovery,
security,theand“third
competitiveness,
scientific
enablingstructures
researchers
to
inadequateinquiry,
and outmoded
within
buildFederal
and government
test models
complex
the
and of
the academy
phenomena—such
as multi-century
today
do not effectively
support this climate
critical
shifts,
multidimensional
multidisciplinary
field. flight stresses on
aircraft, and stellar explosions—that cannot
be replicated in the laboratory, and to
manage huge volumes of data rapidly and
economically. . . .
Reasons for the Decline
1. Students fear insecurity from the dot-com bust and offshoring.
2. CS curricula are seen as unexciting and lacking in flexibility.
3. Most images of computing work (and workers) are negative.
4. Students have changed in ways that decrease the appeal of CS.
5. Teaching computing in high school faces enormous challenges.
6. Introductory courses have become substantially more difficult.
Employment Myths are Persistent
December 1, 2005
Blue Skies Ahead for IT Jobs
BY MARIA KLAWE
Contrary to popular belief, career
opportunities in computer science
are at an all-time high. We’ve got to
spread that message among students
from a rainbow of backgrounds, or
risk becoming a technological
backwater.
All this talk about “Blue Skies” ahead just
can’t hide the stark fact that Americans
who don’t wish to migrate to India and/or
some other off-shore haven are going to
have a difficult career.
Why would any smart American undergrad
go into IT when companies like IBM and
HP are talking of stepping up their offshoring efforts in the coming years? They
want cheap labor, no matter the real cost.
I have been very successful in IT, but I
certainly wouldn’t recommend it today to
Mariawho
Klawe
anyone except people
are geeks. . . .
President, Harvey Mudd College
I think(atthethelatest
figuresat Princeton)
from the U.S.
time, Dean
Department of Labor are not correct.
Myths about Offshoring
1. All IT jobs will soon be outsourced to India and China.
2. Good IT workers will be easy to find in the new “flatter” world.
3. Companies will always seek the lowest-priced labor.
The ACM report on Globalization and
Offshoring of Software refutes these
myths,
but
the
misinformation
persists.
Employment Growth Remains Strong
• Although there was a slight dip in IT-sector employment after
2000, recent data show that this trend has reversed and that
there are now more computing jobs than at any time in history.
• Projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate strong
growth over the next decade:
Projected Employment 2004-2014 (in thousands)
2004
Computer and information systems managers
Computer specialists
Computer hardware engineers
Total, all professional-level IT occupations
Total, all occupations
2014
% change
280
353
+26.1%
3,046
4,003
+31.4%
77
84
+10.1%
3,403
4,440
+30.5%
145,612
164,540
+13.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly Labor Review, November 2005
• Money magazine identified “software engineer” as the #1 job,
anticipating employment growth of 46% over the next decade.
Projected Job Growth is Highest in Computing
The Gap in Computing Degree Production
Annual Degrees and Job Openings in Broad S&E Fields
160,000
140,000
PhD
Master's
120,000
Bachelor's
Projected Job Openings
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Engineering
Physical Sciences
Mathematical/
Computer Sciences
Biological/
Agricultural Sciences
SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data f rom Department of Education/National Center f or Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/S
RS: Survey of
Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived f rom Department of Commerce (Of f ice of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections
Employment Patterns by Discipline
Fraction of professionals with degrees in that discipline:
Fraction of disciplinary graduates employed in that profession:
SOURCE: National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics, SESTAT (Scientists
and Engineers Statistical Data System), 1999, as presented by Caroline Wardle at Snowbird 2002
Reasons for the Decline
1. Students fear insecurity from the dot-com bust and offshoring.
2. CS curricula are seen as unexciting and lacking in flexibility.
3. Most images of computing work (and workers) are negative.
4. Students have changed in ways that decrease the appeal of CS.
5. Teaching computing in high school faces enormous challenges.
6. Introductory courses have become substantially more difficult.
Changes in Student Attitudes
• Students have adopted over time an increasingly instrumental
attitude toward education.
• For many students, opportunities for wealth are more attractive
than security of employment.
• A factor analysis by my colleague Mehran Sahami revealed an
88% correlation between the number of CS majors at Stanford
and the average level of the NASDAQ the year before.
• In boom years, computing disciplines attract those who focus on
these opportunities for wealth, often ignoring the intellectual
side of the field.
• The focus on wealth makes computing majors less attractive to
other students who do not share those goals.
• With the rising excitement around Web 2.0, interest is picking
up this year at most U.S. schools.
Google Buys YouTube for $1.65 Billion
Dot-Com Boom Echoed in Deal to Buy YouTube
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
Published: October 10, 2006
A profitless Web site started by three 20-somethings after a late-night dinner party is sold for more than a
billion dollars, instantly turning dozens of its employees into paper millionaires. It sounds like a tale
from the late 1990’s dot-com bubble, but it happened yesterday.
Google, the online search behemoth, agreed yesterday to pay $1.65 billion in stock for the Web site that
came out of that party—YouTube, the video-sharing phenomenon that is the darling of an Internet
resurgence known as Web 2.0.
YouTube had been coveted by virtually every big media and technology company, as they seek to tap
into a generation of consumers who are viewing 100 million short videos on the site every day. Google is
expected to try to make money from YouTube by integrating the site with its search technology and
search-based advertising program..
But the purchase price has also invited comparisons to the mind-boggling valuations that were once
given to dozens of Silicon Valley companies a decade ago. Like YouTube, those companies were once
the Next Big Thing, but some soon folded.
Reasons for the Decline
1. Students fear insecurity from the dot-com bust and offshoring.
2. CS curricula are seen as unexciting and lacking in flexibility.
3. Most images of computing work (and workers) are negative.
4. Students have changed in ways that decrease the appeal of CS.
5. Teaching computing in high school faces enormous challenges.
6. Introductory courses have become substantially more difficult.
CS Faces Huge Challenges in High Schools
• People who have software development skills command high
salaries and tend not to teach in high schools for very long.
• In many schools, computing courses are seen as vocational
rather than academic. The NCAA, for example, no longer
accepts computer science courses for academic eligibility.
• Students who are heading toward top universities are often
advised to take courses other than computer science to bolster
their admissions chances.
• Because schools are evaluated on how well their students
perform in math and science, many schools are shifting
teachers away from computer science toward these disciplines.
• Teachers have very few resources to keep abreast of changes in
the field.
CS is Losing Ground
• The Computer Science exam is the only Advanced Placement
exam that has shown declining student numbers in recent years.
CS Is Tiny Compared with Other Sciences
Reasons for the Decline
1. Students fear insecurity from the dot-com bust and offshoring.
2. CS curricula are seen as unexciting and lacking in flexibility.
3. Most images of computing work (and workers) are negative.
4. Students have changed in ways that decrease the appeal of CS.
5. Teaching computing in high school faces enormous challenges.
6. Introductory courses have become substantially more difficult.
Complexity and Instability
• Complexity. The number of programming details that students
must master has grown much faster than the corresponding
number of high-level concepts.
The number and complexity of topics that entering students
must understand have increased substantially, just as the
problems we ask them to solve and the tools they must use
have become more sophisticated. An increasing number of
institutions are finding that a two-course sequence is no longer
sufficient to cover the fundamental concepts of programming.
— Computing Curricula 2001
• Instability. The rapid evolution of the field creates problems for
computing education that are qualitatively different from those
in most fields.
The March of Progress
1536 pages
911 pages
266 pages
274 pages
The Pace of Change
• The pace of change—particularly in terms of its effect on the
languages, libraries, and tools on which introductory computer
science education depends—has increased in recent years.
• Individual universities and colleges can’t keep up.
• In a survey by the Computer Science Teachers Association,
high-school teachers cited the rapid pace of change as the most
significant barrier.
Positive Initiatives
• The National Science Foundation sponsored four regional
conferences on Integrated Computing and Research (ICER) and
has recently launched a new Computing Pathways (C-PATH)
initiative.
• Several ACM Education Board projects are proving helpful:
–
–
–
–
A brochure for high-school students
The CC2001 series of curriculum reports
The Computer Science Teachers Association
A community effort to develop Java tools (the ACM Java Task Force)
• There are many interesting ideas in the community that are
showing promise:
–
–
–
–
Mark Guzdial’s “media computation” course at Georgia Tech
Stuart Reges’s “back to basics” strategy at the University of Washington
Jeannette Wing’s “computational thinking” concepts
Interdisciplinary curricula at a variety of schools
What the ACM Plans To Do
• Develop a comprehensive report on the enrollment crisis and
the factors that contribute to it.
• Continue our efforts on the broad range of problems we face.
• Encourage experimentation in curricular strategies.
• Develop tools and materials that can be used “off the shelf.”
• Improve distribution channels for best practices.
• Promote interdisciplinary curricular connections.
• Welcome the participation of other groups in this effort.
• Press government and industry to support computing education.
The End
IT Salaries Remain High
Continuing a pattern that has been evident for decades,
recent bachelor’s and master’s engineering graduates and
computer science graduates at the bachelor’s level are
more likely than graduates in other fields to be employed
full time after graduation, and upon entering the
workforce, they are rewarded with higher salaries.
Source: National Science Foundation. InfoBrief, December 2005
Among science graduates, the median annual salaries of
computer and information sciences (CIS) graduates were
the highest as of October 2003. CIS graduates with
bachelor’s degrees earned a median annual salary of
$45,000, and those with master’s degrees earned a median
annual salary of $60,000.
Source: Computing Research Association, December 2005
Sobering Thoughts
There are more public methods in the java and javax
package hierarchies than there are words in Jensen and Wirth’s
Pascal User Manual and Report. The amount of text once
deemed sufficient to teach the standard introductory
programming language is thus no longer sufficient for a full
index of the operations available today.
Given the scale of modern software systems, it is typically
impossible for students to develop projects as extensions to
existing code frameworks. An academic term is now sufficient
only to understand what is already there, leaving no time for
further development.
If I had had to learn C++, I would have majored in music.
—Don Knuth, October 11, 2006