Transcript Redmond Urbanization Analysis

Presented by:
ECONorthwest
March 3, 2011
Agenda
 Project progress report (5 minutes)
 Preliminary results of the HNA (20 minutes)
 Presentation by ECONorthwest
 Discussion (60 minutes)
 General comments on the housing needs analysis methods, data, or
results
 Discussion: Are the preliminary findings about housing mix and
density consistent with what you know about housing need in
Newport?
 Implications of Preliminary Findings of the Housing Needs
Analysis (35 minutes)
State Requirements
 Goal 10, OAR 660-008
 Requires coordination of population projections by
counties (ORS 195.036);
 Requires cities to complete an inventory of buildable
residential lands;
 Cities should encourage the availability of adequate
numbers of housing units in price and rent ranges
commensurate with the financial capabilities of its
households;
 Requires demonstration of a 20-year buildable land
supply.
State Requirements
 Needed housing types include (but are not limited to):
 Single family detached and attached
 Multi-family housing for owner and renter occupancy
 Government assisted housing
 Mobile/manufactured dwellings in parks and on individual
lots
Current Conditions of
Newport’s 5,500 dwellings
 69% are Single-Family Detached and Manufactured
 58% of Newport’s occupied units are owner-occupied
 19% are vacant
 16% or 1,075 dwellings are vacant for seasonal or
recreational use
 Rental units are older on average than owner units
 Owner-occupied median year built is 1978
 Renter-occupied median year built is 1974
Most recent development was
for single-family, 2000-2010
 Permits issued for 572
units
 69% Single-family and
manufactured
 31% Multifamily
 52 permits issued
annually
Most new multifamily was in
condominiums
 31% Multi-family
 27% Condos
 2% Apartments
 2% Duplex/Tri-/Quads
 69% Single-family
Most new dwellings were
single-family in HDR, 2000-2010
 Low Density Residential:
24% of new dwellings
 Mostly single-family
 High Density Residential:
63% of new dwellings
 Mostly single-family
 Commercial: 13% of new
dwellings
 Mostly Condos
Percent of dwellings by in
each plan designation
Housing density averaged 8.8
dwellings/net acre, 2000-2010
 LDR: 5.3 du/net acre
 Mostly single-family an average of more than 5 du/net
acre
 HDR: 9.9 du/net acre
 Single family was more than 8 du/net acre
 Condo and apartment were between 14 and 16 du/net acre
 Commercial: 29.1 du/net
 Mostly condominium at more than 32 du/net acre
Newport has more lower
income households
 Households earning less
than $25,000 annually
 Newport: 34%
 Oregon: 24%
 Households earning less
than $50,000 annually
 Newport: 57%
 Oregon: 51%
Homeownership became less
affordable since 2000
 The ratio of housing
value to income
increased since 1990
 Newport: 2.8 to 6.3
 Oregon: 2.5 to 5.0
 Average single-family
sales price increased by
nearly $75,000 or 47%
Affordable rental housing is
difficult to find Where Residents of Newport Work
 A household must earn
about $30,000 to afford a
two-bedroom rental (at
$759 per month)
 More than 1/3 of
households cannot
afford a two-bedroom
rental
 About ½ of renter
households pay more
than 30% of their
income on housing costs
Affordable rental housing is
Where Workers in Newport Live
difficult to find
 Two-thirds of Newport’s
workers live outside
Newport
 Newport currently has a
deficit of about 500
dwellings affordable for
people earning < $25,000
 Anecdotal evidence
suggests that Newport’s
rental housing stock is
older and in poor condition
Factors affecting future housing
needs
State Forecast of Age Change in
Lincoln County, 2000 to 2030
Aging Baby Boomers
37% of Lincoln County’s
pop in 2030, up from 25% in
2000
Range of housing needs
 Remain in current
housing
 Move to group housing
when necessary
 Downsize to smaller units
Factors affecting future housing
needs
Growth of Echo Boomers
 Currently the largest age-group
 By 2030, the majority will be 35 to 48 years old
 Growth in Newport will depend on availability of jobs
 Housing choice will depend on income, age, and
family composition
 Affordability will be a concern, especially when younger
 May need multifamily housing when younger
 May need single-family when older, with higher income
and a family
Factors affecting future housing
needs
Growth of immigrants
 Immigrants are one of the fastest growing groups
 Hispanic and Latinos are the fastest growing immigrants
 By 2050, 25% of the U.S. population will be Hispanic
 Growth in Newport will depend on availability of jobs
 Housing choice will depend on income, age, and
family composition
 Affordability will be a concern, especially in first
generation and when younger
 Will need multi-family and single-family, depending on
affordability
Conclusion: Newport will need
more multifamily housing
Variable
Estimate of
Housing Units
(2011-2031)
1,603
47
1,556
2.19
711
19.0%
135
846
Change in persons
minus Change in persons in group quarters
equals Persons in households
Average household size
New occupied DU
times Aggregate vacancy rate
equals Vacant dwelling units
Total new dwelling units (2011-2031)
Dwelling units by structure type
Single-family detached
Percent single-family detached DU
equals Total new single-family detached DU
Multifamily
Percent multifamily detached DU
Total new multifamily DU
equals Total new dwelling units (2011-2031)
Dwelling units needed annually
60%
508
40%
338
846
42
Average density by housing
type will remain the same
 Density by housing type will stay constant
 Single-family: 7.0 du/net acre
 Multi-family: 18.7 du/net acre
 Overall density will increase from 8.8 to 9.3 du/net
acre because of increase in percent of multifamily
Average density by housing
type will remain the same
 Result shows that Newport will need 112 gross acres of
residential land
 91 gross acres for single-family housing
 21 gross acres for multi-family housing
 Newport has ample land to accommodate housing
 Land available for multi-family housing for residents is
limited and may be located in the wrong areas
Newport needs more
affordable rental housing
 Newport’s policies should emphasize meeting the
needs of current and future full-year residents
 Newport has a deficit of affordable, quality rental
housing for current and potential residents
 Renters want high-quality housing that is suited to
Newport
 Higher amenity, well constructed
 Housing types other than apartments
 Affordable units