Influences of Transportation Activities on Third Pole Environment (TPE) Dr. Xuedong Yan Professor and Executive Director 10/16/2010 Beijing Jiaotong University

Motivation

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Global warming trend

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Retreatment of glaciers

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The anthropogenic influences

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Transportation Role :

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Energy consumption Green House Gas (GHG)

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Black Carbon (BC) Urban air pollution

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To protect TPE in the field of transportation

Outline

Transportation Influences on TPE At Global Level At Regional Level At Local Level Response in the Field of Transportation

Global Level Influence

 GHGs warm the earth surface and atmosphere, resulting in rainfall, retreat of glaciers and sea ice, sea level, and other environment issues.  Black carbon (BC) in soot particles is potentially the second major contributor to the observed global warming.  The transportation sector has the second largest and increasing contributions to both GHG emission and BC formation.

Global Level Influence

Energy use distribution per sector

Residential sector (14%) Commercial sector (8%) Industrial sector (51%) Transportation sector (27%)  Energy use in the transportation sector includes the energy consumed in moving people and goods by road, rail, air, water, and pipeline.

 Growth rates for economic activity and population are the key factors for transportation energy demand.

 It keeps increasing by 1.3 percent per year from 2007 to 2035.

Global Level Influence

Energy Production (41%) Transport (26%) Manufacturing & Construction (19%) Residential (8%) Commercial & Other (6%) 

Carbon dioxide emissions per sector

R o a d T r a n s p o r t ( 6 5 % ) R a i l , D o m e s t i c A v i a t i o n & W a t e r w a y s ( 2 3 % ) I n t e r n a t i o n a l A v i a t i o n ( 5 % ) I n t e r n a t i o n a l S h i p p i n g ( 7 % ) 

Carbon dioxide emissions per transport sector

Global Level Influence

BC distribution per sector

Residential sector (20%) Industrial sector (10%) Transportation sector (25%) Open Burning (45%)  On a global basis, transportation, residential, and industrial sectors have notable contributions to black carbon (25%, 20% and 10%, respectively).

 Open burning provides most of the rest (45%).

Global Level Influence

BC distribution by region and sector

0 . 0 0 N o r t h A m e r i c a C e n t r a l / S A m e r E u r o p e F o r m e r U S S R M i d d e r E a s t P a c i f i c A f r i c a C h i n a I n d i a O t h e r A s i a T o t a l 0 . 2 5 0 . 5 0 0 . 7 5 1 . 0 0 p o w e r i n d u s t r y T r a n s p o r t ：r o a d T r a n s p o r t : n o n - r o a d R e s i d e n t i a l : o t h e r R e s i d e n t i a l : c o c a l R e s i d e n t i a l : b i o f u e l  Road transportation is the dominant contributor to BC in North America, Latin America, and Europe, relying on diesel vehicles.  China and India have a small portion from transportation.

Regional Level Influence

   There is a variability in the warming trend.

The Tibet plateau faces a temperature rise of up to 0.3 C 0 per decade: approximately three times of the global warming rate.  Warming trends are greater in western China than those in eastern China.

The Indian monsoon blows over the Indian Ocean, which carry pollutants emitted in those countries of the South Asia to the third pole region.

 The air mass from Southeastern China may carry transportation pollutants generated in those high emission areas to the third pole region.

Regional Level Influence

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Energy consumption for transportation by country grouping, 2007-2035 (Quadrillion Btu)

Region OECD North America Europe Asisa Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Asia Middle East Africa Central and South America Total World 2007 59.9 33.7 18.8 7.4 38.1 6.9 15.4 5.8 3.5 6.5 97.9 2015 59.2 33.3 18.6 7.4 49.7 7.4 22.3 7.8 4.4 7.8 109.0 2020 59.7 34.2 17.9 7.6 55.4 7.6 26.4 8.7 4.6 8.1 115.1 2025 61.2 35.7 17.8 7.7 62.2 7.9 31.0 9.7 5.1 8.5 123.4 2030 62.8 37.1 17.9 7.8 69.9 8.1 35.7 10.9 5.7 9.2 132.5 2035 64.6 38.8 17.9 7.9 77.5 8.6 40.3 12.5 6.3 9.8 142.1

Regional Level Influence

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Energy consumption and BC emission by sector and fuel type in China

Sector Residential Industry Power generation Transportation Total Energy use(PJ) 1995 2020 29.2% 37.7% 26.0% 7.2% 100.0% 20.7% 33.9% 30.2% 15.2% 100.0% BC emissions(Gg) 1995 2020 88.3% 7.7% 0.7% 3.4% 100.0% 79.4% 8.3% 0.5% 11.9% 100.0%  The increased use of diesel vehicles in the future will result in a larger share of the transport sector in total BC emission.

Regional Level Influence

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Carbon dioxide emission in China

 In comparison with most other countries, the share of CO 2 emissions from the transport sector in China is comparatively low, with 8% in 2000. It is projected to increase to 12% by 2020.

1995 2005

Local Level Influence

 Though the plateau region is relatively underdeveloped, it undergoes rapid economic growth and booming tourism in recent years, which brings increase in energy demand, transportation development, and pollution.

 The pressure on the unique ecosystem of Tibet Plateau is predictably increasing.

Local Level Influence

 Land cover is changing along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Railway.  The Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Railway are from Xining to Lhasa with total lengths of 2000 km respectively.

 Land covers of the agriculture and alpine meadow along the transportation corridors are increasing and those of the alpine grassland and desert grassland are decreasing.

Local Level Influence

 The construction of Qinghai –Tibet railway has promoted local tourism and economy.

 The numbers of tourists in both Qinghai and Tibet showed sharp increases in recent years.

 Till 2010 September, the number of vehicles in Tibet is 216,478. That in Lhasa is more than 120,000.

  Increasing rate is as high as 30%.

Road traffic exhaust emissions and air quality in urban areas should be paid more attention.

12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Tibet Qinghai Year

Local Level Influence

40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 HOURS OF DAY(LT) 200A HOURS OF DAY(LT) 30A HOURS OF DAY(LT) 10A 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 H o u r s o f D a y l y 16 18 20 22 24  In Kullu valley of North Western Himalayas in India, the area has experienced tremendous growth in tourism.

 The total tourist traffic to the region increased from 6.55 million in 2004 to 9.75 million in 2008.

 Observations to the ultrafine particles in the area shows a bimodal structure with morning and evening peaks.

Relationship Summary

At Global Level Transportation Energy Use GHG Emission BC Emission Global Warming Transportation Technology Transportation Management At Regional Level Transportation Energy Use BC Emission Polutants Emission Regional Warming Effects TPE Local Contaminations Urban Transport Emission Land Cover Change Transportation Energy Use At Local Level Transportation Operation

Transportation Strategies

in Response to TPE Degradation

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Management -- Control of the vehicle exhaust:

 New vehicles should comply with at least Euro3 vehicles exhaust emission standards.  In-use vehicle inspection and maintenance system must be strengthened to eliminate gross polluters.  High-emission vehicles should be identified and repaired or scrapped; and fuel quality should be improved.

Transportation Strategies

in Response to TPE Degradation

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Management – Traffic Demand Control

 Limiting the growth in travel demand: increases in fuel prices will tend to dampen the growth in VMT (Vehicle Mileage Travel)  Expanding transit service and other alternatives to single occupant vehicle travel;   Encouraging E-bike use and reducing car ownership Encouraging land uses that minimize the number and length of auto trips.

Transportation Strategies

in Response to TPE Degradation

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Operation -- Mitigating Urban Traffic Congestion:

 We are experiencing increasing congestion on our highways, railways, airports and seaports.

 Driving in urban areas, 17.2% of fuel is lost due to idling stop lights or traffic congestion.

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Countermeasures:

 Public transportation   Enhance road network capacity Intelligent transportation system

Transportation Strategies

in Response to TPE Degradation

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Technological Innovations in Vehicles and Fuels

Emerging technologies hold the key to even greater reductions in transportation emission.

 Technology Deployment:  Gas/Electric Hybrids  Electric cars   Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles Biofuels  Developed countries should share environment technologies with developing countries. Otherwise, their efforts will have little effect if the emissions continue to rise dramatically in China, India, and other developing countries.

Emerging Research Topics Related to Transportation

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Status and future of transportation energy consumption and its impacts on TPE

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Establish Vehicle Emission Inventory for Tibet VMT, Number of Vehicles, and Emission Prediction for Tibet High resolution urban air quality modeling at Lhasa Characteristics of Vehicle Emission Factors in High Latitude Region

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Assessment of heavy metal contamination of roadside soils in Tibet ……