Transcript Document

Global Transition to
Sustainable Development
Daniel E. Campbell
Research Ecologist
IV International Workshop Advances in
Energy Studies
Ecology-Energy Issues in Latin America
June 15-19, 2004
Brief Outline of the Talk
• What is sustainable?
• Where are we now?
• The trade-off between the economy and
the environment.
• Is sustainable development possible?
• Human well being.
• Environmental accounting using emergy.
• Comparison of some emergy accounts
for SA and NA.
• Conclusions and recommendations.
Sustainable
Development
• All nations will become better places
for their inhabitants to live.
• Well being will be measured as an
increase in the product of
environmental, social, and economic
empower per capita in a system.
• Is this a reasonable goal for the world
today?
Understanding What is
Sustainable
• Energy Systems Theory (Odum 1994) is
used as a context for understanding
sustainable development.
• Characterization of the properties of the
global system using this approach will
help answer our question.
• The maximum empower principle
provides the criterion for identifying
system designs that will succeed.
Maximum Power Design
• System designs that maximize
empower prevail in competition.
• Nature’s ubiquitous patterns are
the result of such designs.
• Pulsating systems at all scales
may be one such design.
Nature’s Pulsing
Paradigm
• The pulsing paradigm replaces the old
concept of growth followed by steady state.
• Systems with coupled pairs of components
can oscillate.
• Such pairs are found on all hierarchical levels
of organization.
• Pulsing pairs contain one component, the
accumulator, that slowly builds up resources
and a second component, the frensor, that
rapidly consumes the accumulated
resources.
Pulsing on nested levels of hierarchical organization.
100000
100000
Energy
100000
100000
ST = 1
Emergy, sej
Level 3
1000
Accumulated
Resource
100000
Resource
Consumption
16
B
12
8
A
D
C
4
0
10000
100000
Accumulated Resource
Resouce Consumption
20
1000
Dispersed
Material
0
400
800
1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200
Time
10000
10000
10000
16
100
Energy
10000
ST = 1
20
100
Emergy, sej
Dispersed
Material
Level 2
10000
Accumulated
Resource
10000
Resource
Consumption
Accumulated Resource
Resouce Consumption
12
8
4
0
0
1000
400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200
Time
20
10
Dispersed
Material
Level 1
1000
Emergy, sej
1000
10
Energy
1000
ST =1
1000
1000
Accumulated
Resource
1000
100
Resource
Consumption
Accumulated Resource
16
Resouce Consumption
12
8
4
0
0
400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200
Time
The Cycle of Change
• The pulsing paradigm for ecosystem
development implies that a cycle of
change is the fundamental
characteristic of environmental
systems rather than development
through a series of stages to a climax
condition that is sustainable.
The Repeating Cycle of Change
• Environmental resources are the
accumulated products.
• Global economic, informational, and
cultural assets are the resource
consumers.
• The cycle of change moves through
phases of (1) exploitation, (2) climax or
conservation, (3) creative destruction,
and (4) renewal (Holling’s Figure 8).
The Cycle of Change
Empower sej y
-1
12
10
8
B
6
4
C
A
2
D
0
0
800
1600
Time
2400
3200
The Evolving Cycle of Change
• The shared information of humans in
social systems provides a mechanism
for evolution of the cycle.
• Hypothesis:System empower will
gradually increase in each successive
phase of renewal,
• In the limit, approaching the maximum
empower possible for the resource
base.
Role of Information in Altering the Renewal Phase of Pulsing Systems
k8
2.5E-5
Material, M
TM = 200
k7
2.5E-5
X
Consumers k9 Information
C =2
I = 0.2
3E-5
k6
3E-4
X
k11
X
k12
0.0003
Energy
E= 5
Resources
0.02 R = 2
X
k1
k2
X
0.002
0.005
k10
k4
k5
0.2
0.01
0.005
X
k3
0.0012
20
B
16
Emergy, sej
Accumulated Resource
Resource Consumption
12
C
A
8
D2
D1
4
0
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
Time
Pulsing as an evolutionary mechanism for attaining higher empower states.
Morality in Each Phase of the
Cycle
• A) Exploitation of
Resources
• B) Climax
• C) Decession
• D) Low Energy
Steady State
• Our children will have
more material wealth
than we do.
• We will meet our
needs without
compromising the
needs of our children
• We will do more with
less, so our children
will have less material
wealth but life will be
better
• We plan for the 7th
generation of our
children
Where are we now in the
cycle of change?
• M. King Hubbert (1956) predicted peak
petroleum production in the U.S. would
occur in 1970, which history has
verified.
• Colin Campbell predicts peak oil
production for the world around 2004.
• If he is right, we stand on this
production peak today.
H.T. Odum’s model of Hubbert’s Blip.
Model of Global Society on Fossil Fuel
F
Q
Production Nonrenewable Resource , P
P
Energetic limits determine the level of development.
Campbell’s forecast
Prior to its production
peak, energy does not
limit economic growth
or production, except
locally in time and
space.
Environmental Systems
• Environmental systems are ecosystems in
which humans are a dominant component.
• Economic production supports society and
our standard of living and is not possible
without the use of environmental resources.
• The central problem for sustainable
development is how to balance the
environmental costs of economic production
with the benefits of that production to society.
Environmental Limits to
Economic Development
• Environmental resources are
necessary inputs for economic
production,
• Which produces wastes and alters
land use thereby decreasing available
environmental resources.
• Declining environmental resources
eventually cause a decrease in
economic production.
The Environmental System of a Nation
Natural resources are required for economic production, but
production has negative effects on the environment.
(5)
C
Waste,
Fertilizing
Waste,
Toxic
Renewable
Energies
Groundwater,
soil, clean air.
etc.
Fossil fuel,
minerals,
etc.
(3)
Area
C
X X -
Subsidized
Ecosystems
Goods &
Services
X
Area
(2)
Area
GDP
(1)
X X
-
(4)
Natural
Ecosystems
Fossil fuel,
Minerals
X X X X
Economy
C, Land Conversion
Markets
Energy Limits Global
Growth
• As long as the production of
nonrenewable resource increases
some resource can be used to mitigate
the negative effects of economic
production on the environment, while
allowing economic growth to continue.
• Once production peaks, each year less
resource is available and some
formerly supported activities must be
given-up.
The Global Environmental System Before Nonrenewable Resources Peak.
C
Renewable
Energy
Area
C
Waste,
Fertilizing
Waste,
Toxic
Groundwater,
soil, clean air.
etc.
(1)
Fossil fuel,
minerals,
etc.
(2)
X X -
Subsidized
Ecosystems
X
Recycle
&Waste
Treatment
Area
GWP
$
Area
X X
-
Natural
Ecosystems
X X X X
Economy
(3)C
Better
Design
Is Global Sustainable
Development Possible?
• If it is, there must be an optimum
nonrenewable emergy use for
maximum human well being.
• Underdeveloped countries will improve
by using more nonrenewable emergy.
• Developed countries will increase well
being by using less, but improving
design.
GWP US $ 10
12
An optimum is not apparent looking at global economic activity
as a function of energy use.
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
Global Energy Used (Joules x 1018)
400.00
Nor does an optimum appear in the relationship
between national GDP and national emergy use.
GDP 1980 US$ y-1
1.00E+14
1.00E+13
1.00E+12
y = 5E-13x
R2 = 0.9243
1.00E+11
1.00E+10
1.00E+09
1.00E+08
1.00E+07
1.00E+19 1.00E+20 1.00E+21 1.00E+22 1.00E+23 1.00E+24 1.00E+25 1.00E+26
Emergy Used sej y-1
Human well being is the product of environment, economy, and society
Odum (1996).
Human Well Being
• We hypothesize that human well being
is determined by the interaction of
emergy flows of the environment,
economy, and society within a system.
• The product of these three will have a
humpbacked (optimum) relation as a
function of fossil fuel use when
detrimental drains are included.
Mechanism that will allow global sustainable development
500
450
Hypothetical Data
Empower (sej/y)
400
Environment
350
Overdeveloped
300
Economy
250
200
Society
Underdeveloped
Well Being (scaled
units)
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
Fossil Fuel Use (sej/y)
150
Questions Related to
Transition
• What is sustainable for the world as a
whole?
• And for each country given its
particular resource base and position
in the cycle of change?
• Is it possible for all nations together to
move toward higher states of human
well being?
• Is global sustainable development a
realizable system state?
Environmental
Accounting
• The answers to these questions will
depend on the development of an
adequate theory of human well being
and on the development of accounting
methods to determine whether we are
moving toward this goal.
• Environmental accounting using
emergy (Odum 1996) provides
methods and measures to help answer
these questions.
Tools of Environmental
Accounting
•
•
•
•
•
The Emergy Income Statement
The Emergy Balance Sheet
Emergy Measures of Trade Equity
Emergy Measures of Social Equity
Emergy Indices, e.g., environmental
loading and sustainability.
Global Transition to
Sustainable Development
• To illustrate the application of
environmental accounting methods to
the problem of sustainable
development, we will consider the
concept of society’s debt to the
environment debt and how it can be
measured using emergy methods.
Environmental Debt
• Money is paid only to
people for their work.
• The environment
contributes work to
economic production
without payment.
• Anything taken without
payment is obtained on
credit and becomes a
liability on the balance
sheet.
Measuring the Debt
• Environmental debt is mostly
external to the market system,
thus it is not easily measured by
money.
• Value can be measured by what
was required to produce an item
as well as by what someone is
willing to pay for it.
• Environmental work can be
measured by the former method.
Available energy is a
common denominator
• All action is accompanied by the
transformation of available energy or
exergy.
• The exergy used in the past to create an
item is a measure of what was required
to produce it.
• But exergies of different kinds have
different ability to do work when used in
a network.
Emergy
• If all the different kinds of exergy previously
used up, directly and indirectly, to make an
item are expressed as solar joules, and
then summed the resulting value is the
solar emergy of the item.
Bread
Joules
Oil
Rain
=
X
Joules
Emergy of Bread
+
X
Joules
=
Solar emjoules
What is Emergy?
• It is the Energy Memory of
everything that has been
used to make a product or
service.
• It is a scientific expression of
the folk idea of energy.
• More energy = a barn
instead of a shed and when
the barn is built the energy is
used up.
Emergy to money ratio
Emergy to money ratio
• Monetary and emergy accounts
are reconciled on the balance
sheet using a combined emergymoney measure,e.g., the
emdollar.
• The emdollar value of an item is
its emergy divided by the
emergy-to-money ratio for an
economy in a given year.
Environmental
Accounting Tools
Emergy Ledger
Emergy of Assets =
Coal purchased
Coal used
Emergy of Liabilities +
Extraction damage is an
environmental liability
Emergy Equity
Debit
Debit
Debit
Credit
1.05E18
Credit
Credit
1.56E16 1.56E16
1.05E18
Monetary Ledger
Assets =
Liabilities +
Coal purchased increases
Accounts payable ($),
assets
Extraction damage (Em$)
Owner’s Equity
Extraction damage (Em$)
Debit
Debit
20000
Credit
Debit
Credit
20000
15750
15750
Credit
• Emergy accounting makes it
possible to keep a single set of
books for the environment and
the economy.
• And to create a balance sheet
that includes environmental
liabilities from which the true
solvency of our economic
activities can be determined.
Emergy Balance Sheet
Emergy Balance Sheet
Note
Description
Data
Unit
Emergy/Unit
sej/unit
Emergy
X E20 sej
Emdollars
X E9 Em$
Assets
1
Forest biomass
1.04E19
J
28200
2933
240
2
Coal
1.42E21
J
39200
556640
45626
3
Knowledge of the
People
1816000
Ind.
Various
3837
315
563410
46181
Total Assets
Liabilities
5
Extraction Damage
1.25E19
J
Avg. 1.0E5
17400
1426
6.0E10
$
1.22E12
(1997)
732
60
Var.
Various
545278
44695
Total Equity
546010
44775
Total Liabilities +
Equity
563410
46181
Public and Private Equity
6
Paid in Capital
7
Natural Capital
The emergy
balance
sheet gives
direct
information
on what is
sustainable.
Emergy Balance Sheets for
North and South America
• Emergy debt to the environment:
 Forest systems (original area – present
area)
 Species extinctions: vascular plants
• Emergy assets:
 Fossil fuel reserves
• Coal
• Oil
• Natural gas
South America: Country Data
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
Area
1000 ha
278040
109858
854740
75663
113891
28356
9000
21497
40675
128522
16327
17622
91205
Population
GDP
Year
35660000
8040000
167200000
14650000
37720000
12336572
162547
700000
5150000
26111110
427980
3220000
22803409
5.48E+10
8.00E+09
6.00E+11
5.48E+10
8.78E+10
1.97E+10
3.82E+08
5.30E+08
5.65E+09
6.08E+10
5.50E+08
1.47E+10
9.50E+10
1994
1997
1995
1994
1995
1998
1997 est.
1994
1995
1998
1997 est.
1995
1998
SA Assets in Fossil Fuel
Reserves
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
SA Total
Coal
short tons
4.74E+08
0.00E+00
1.31E+10
1.30E+09
7.30E+09
2.60E+07
0
0
0
1.17E+09
0
0
5.28E+08
2.39E+10
Natural Gas
cu.ft.
2.75E+13
5.49E+13
8.10E+12
3.50E+12
4.50E+12
3.45E+11
0
0
0
8.70E+12
0
0
1.48E+14
2.56E+14
Petroleum
barrels
2.90E+09
4.41E+08
8.30E+09
1.50E+08
1.84E+09
4.60E+09
0
0
0
2.85E+08
0
0
7.78E+10
9.63E+10
Energy
Joules
6.19E+19
6.06E+19
4.78E+20
4.62E+19
2.50E+20
2.93E+19
0
0
0
4.84E+19
0
0
6.48E+20
1.62E+21
Emergy
sej
4.95E+24
4.91E+24
3.34E+25
3.17E+24
1.71E+25
2.63E+24
0
0
0
3.41E+24
0
0
5.67E+25
1.26E+26
SA Fossil Fuel: Use
Remaining
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
SA Total
Emergy
Fossil Fuel Use Years Remaining
sej
sej/y
y
4.95E+24
2.58E+23
19
4.91E+24
1.00E+21
4905
3.34E+25
8.83E+23
38
3.17E+24
1.58E+23
20
1.71E+25
1.68E+23
102
2.63E+24
5.40E+22
49
0.00E+00
3.48E+21
0
0.00E+00
5.00E+21
0
0.00E+00
1.00E+22
0
3.41E+24
1.23E+23
28
0.00E+00
5.97E+21
0
0.00E+00
1.10E+22
0
5.67E+25
5.03E+23
113
1.26E+26
2.18E+24
SA Emergy Debt to
Forest Ecosystems
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guinea
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
SA Total
* Brown (2003)
Forest Area Lost Emergy Debt
m2
2.35839E+11
1.56729E+11
2.75229E+12
2.273E+11
4.31111E+11
53420963855
0
4505687885
2.91493E+11
1.0091E+11
6495523013
0
97117033493
1.04E+11
sej
7.39549E+24
4.91474E+24
8.63068E+25
7.12771E+24
1.35189E+25
1.67518E+24
0
1.4129E+23
9.1407E+24
3.16435E+24
2.03688E+23
0
3.04541E+24
3.25E+24
Total Use*
sej/y
4.524E+23
1.94E+22
1.792E+24
2.798E+23
5.72E+23
1.617E+23
?
2.7E+22
4.84E+22
?
?
3.1E+22
?
Years to Pay
y
16.3
253.3
48.2
25.5
23.6
10.4
0.0
5.2
188.9
?
?
0.0
?
SA Biodiversity Debt
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
SA Total
Extinct Vascular Plants Emergy Debt Annual Emergy Use
sej
sej/y
1 1.50922E+21
4.524E+23
0
0
1.94E+22
15 2.26382E+22
1.792E+24
7 1.05645E+22
2.798E+23
4 6.03686E+21
5.72E+23
3 4.52765E+21
1.617E+23
1 1.50922E+21
?
1 1.50922E+21
2.7E+22
0
0
4.84E+22
7 1.05645E+22
?
0
0
?
0
0
3.1E+22
0
0
?
39 5.88594E+22
North America: Country
Data
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
Area
1000 ha
997061
195820
962909
Population
GDP
Current US$
3.05E+07
5.99E+11
9.86E+07
2.29E+11
2.67E+08
8.50E+12
Year
1999
1998
1999
NA Fossil Fuel Reserves
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
NA Total
Coal
short tons
7.20E+09
1.30E+09
2.75E+11
2.84E+11
Natural Gas
Petroleum
cu.ft.
barrels
5.91E+13
4.50E+09
1.50E+13
1.58E+10
1.83E+14
2.27E+10
2.57E+14
4.30E+10
Energy
Joules
3.20E+20
1.54E+20
9.13E+21
9.61E+21
Emergy
sej
2.30E+25
1.28E+25
6.19E+26
6.54E+26
NA Fossil Fuel: Use
Remaining
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
NA Total
Emergy
Fossil Fuel Use Years Remaining
sej
sej/y
y
2.30E+25
1.56E+24
15
1.28E+25
5.19E+23
25
6.19E+26
8.16E+24
76
6.54E+26
1.02E+25
NA Debt to Forest
Ecosystems
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
NA Total
Forest Area Lost
m2
2.36E+11
3.19E+11
1.49E+12
2.05E+12
Emergy Debt
sej
7.40E+24
9.99E+24
4.69E+25
6.42E+25
Total Use
sej/y
2.34E+24
6.14E+23
9.00E+24
1.19E+25
Years to Pay
y
3.2
16.3
5.2
NA Biodiversity Debt
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
NA Total
Extinct Vascular Plants Emergy Debt
1
12
163
223
1.51E+21
1.81E+22
2.46E+23
3.37E+23
Annual Emergy Use
2.34E+24
6.14E+23
9.00E+24
1.21E+25
Comparison NA/SA
Ratio NA to SA
Value
Emergy in Fossil Reserves
5.18
Emergy of Fossil Fuel Use
4.69
Debt to Plant Biodiversity
4.51
Debt to Forest Ecosystems
0.47
Original Forest Area
0.56
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
In nature the only thing that appears to be truly
sustainable is a pulsing cycle of change.
Only by knowing our position in the cycle can we
take appropriate steps to move toward a position
of greater total empower use.
Documenting environmental liabilities and assets
using emergy accounting shows what is
sustainable for each phase in the cycle of change.
A transition toward global sustainable development
may be possible if we apply the following rules
during each phase of the cycle.
Recommendations for
Global Transition
• Protect the larger planetary system by
stabilizing environmental liabilities that
affect global functions.
• Individual countries adopt policies to
move toward a position of greater total
empower use.
• Determine the equity of trade with
emergy accounting methods.
• Evaluate the efficacy of the distribution
of wealth among people using emergy.