Transcript Tillage Economics - Southwest Research & Outreach Center

Farmland Rental Rate Briefing
Ag Lender Day
Lamberton
August 12th, 2014
David Bau
Extension Educator
Agricultural Business Management
University of Minnesota Extension
[email protected]
507-360-0664
Copyright © 2013. University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
TODAY’S AGENDA:
• Corn and Soybeans 2014 Outlook
• FINBIN DATA
• Increasing Input costs
• Minnesota Agricultural Statistic Information
• Farm Land Rental Rate Trends
• Land Values
• Current Local Markets
Copyright © 2013. University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
2014 Corn Budget
Copyright © 2013. University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
CORN Budget
Maximum Minimum
Southern MN FINBIN Data
Value
Value
Yield per acre (bu.)
190.5
63.62
Operators share of yield %
100
100
Value per bu.
6.5
1.73
Total product return per acre
1157.23
143.38
Miscellaneous income per acre
69.66
-1.81
Gross return per acre
1182.77
213.04
Actual
2012
178.05
100
6.5
1157.23
25.44
1182.80
Average
03-2012
175.43
100
3.73
653.98
16.45
670.43
Project
2013
184
100
6.72
1,210.59
23.22
1233.80
Actual
2013
180
100
4.45
749.22
110.38
859.60
Project Forecas
2014
t 2014
190
178
100
100
6.95
5
1,263.95
890
20.90
10
1284.85
900
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Direct Expenses
Seed
Fertilizer
Crop chemicals
Crop insurance
Drying fuel
Fuel & oil
Repairs
Custom hire
Hired labor
Land rent
Machinery & bldg leases
Utilities
Marketing
Operating interest
Miscellaneous
Total direct expenses per
acre
Return over direct exp
per acre
25.96
32.15
22.19
2.93
4.28
8.74
18.27
3.09
0.15
78.76
0.32
0.22
0.3
6.99
0.96
216.2
Actual
2012
112
184.87
30.63
24.84
5.5
36.41
46.84
10.99
1.94
199.88
2.25
0
4.09
10.19
4.21
674.66
Average
03-2012
72.71
104.78
26.07
17.17
14.21
23.44
32.28
6.70
1.93
140.32
1.96
0.97
1.90
10.52
3.25
457.22
Project
2013
116.53
192.91
30.97
25.99
5.36
37.83
48.24
11.32
2.04
206.25
2.33
0.00
4.28
10.33
4.38
698.79
Actual
2013
123
188.83
33.00
25.95
21.79
36.03
47.98
9.05
4.15
246.47
3.37
1.24
3.69
9.83
2.53
755.44
Project
2014
121.06
200.95
31.31
27.15
5.21
39.24
49.64
11.66
2.14
212.63
2.41
0.00
4.48
10.47
4.55
722.92
Forecast
2014
121
160
31
28
15
39
50
12
2
230
2
1
5
11
4
711
-33.01
508.11
213.22
535.02
104.16
561.93
189
Maximum
Value
Minimum
Value
112
184.87
30.63
27.13
36.57
36.41
46.84
10.99
3.47
199.88
3.25
1.2
4.09
15.14
5.88
674.66
508.11
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Actual Average Project
2012 03-2012
2013
0
2.32
0.04
12.94
8.16
13.26
6.19
5.29
6.44
8.36
5.66
8.69
12.71
8.26
9.57
Projec
t 2014
0.07
13.57
6.70
9.02
Forecast
2014
2
13
7
9
5.18
5.28
5.33
6
1.93
7.02
34.40
6.38
73.55
3.55
7.64
52.62
9.13
106.50
3.75
7.23
61.03
9.61
117.46
3.72
7.80
53.57
9.31
109.02
4
8
54
10
113
778.63
530.77
805.28
872.90
831.92
824
404.13
58.67
345.46
139.65
40.49
108.47
428.52
60.49
367.92
-13.30
59.78
-73.08
452.91
62.30
390.38
76
60
16
18.23
363.69
22.91
125.49
17.97
386.13
18.05
-55.03
17.71
408.57
0
16
Maximum
Value
Minimum
Value
3.04
12.94
6.45
8.36
1.74
4.74
1.37
2.13
5.18
2.12
5.04
3.72
Dues & professional fees
Interest
Mach & bldg depreciation
Miscellaneous
Total overhead expenses per acre
3.4
8.28
51.66
9.09
103.98
0.42
4.1
18.05
3.91
43.6
3.37
7.47
51.66
8.95
103.98
Total dir & ovhd expenses per
acre
Net return per acre
Lbr & mgt charge per acre
Net return over lbr & mgt
778.63
263.91
404.13
58.67
345.46
-81.89
24.18
-107.64
Government payments
Net return with gov’t payments
51.95
363.69
Overhead Expenses
Custom Hire
Hired labor
Machinery & bldg leases
Farm insurance
Utilities
-7.85
-71.72
Actual
2013
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Maximum
Value
Minimum
Value
$3.79
$1.53
Actual Average Project
2012 03-2012 2013
$3.79
2.61
3.81
Total dir & ovhd exp per bu.
$4.37
$1.83
$4.37
3.03
With labor & management
$4.70
$1.83
$4.70
Total exp less govt & oth
income
Est. labor hours per acre
$4.13
$1.64
3.37
2.42
Cost of Production
Total direct expense per bu.
Actual
2013
4.49
Project
2014
3.83
Forecast
2014
3.99
4.38
5.19
4.38
4.63
3.12
4.70
5.55
4.71
4.97
$4.13
2.92
4.18
4.78
4.22
4.91
2.71
2.58
2.69
2.89
2.68
2.6
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Rents at $230 in forecast example
Farmer Keeps:
$60 labor charge and
$16 net income
$76 Total
With 178 bushels of corn at $5.00 per bushel
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
What if corn price is $3.25 per bushel?
Lower income by $321.50 per acre
Now farmer keeps:
No Labor Charge: $0
A Loss of
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
2014 Soybean Budget
Copyright © 2013. University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Maximum Minimum
SOYBEAN Budget
Values
Values
Southern MN FINBIN Data
Yield per acre (bu.)
53.11
20.7
Value per bu.
13.77
5.05
Total product return per acre
678.19
125.76
Miscellaneous income per acre
58.67
2.14
Gross return per acre
693.11
172.76
Actual
Average
2012
2003-2012
49.26
46.77
13.77
8.89
678.19
416.61
14.92
16.32
693.11
432.82
Project
2013
50.76
14.17
707.27
13.23
720.50
Actual
Project Forecast
2013
2014
2014
47.03
52.27
48
12.63
14.58
11.5
594.18 736.34
552
19.29
11.54
15
613.47 747.88
567
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Direct Expenses
Seed
Fertilizer
Crop chemicals
Crop insurance
Fuel & oil
Repairs
Custom hire
Hired labor
Land rent
Machinery & bldg leases
Marketing
Operating interest
Miscellaneous
Total direct expenses per
acre
Return over direct exp per
acre
Maximum
Values
Minimum
Values
56.2
25.29
32.91
28.96
23.75
30.99
7.61
2.36
191.52
2.39
1.9
10.8
4.72
401.97
13.1
1.34
17.36
4.84
6.76
14.21
2.33
0.21
77.86
0.35
0.27
5.49
0.8
152.44
56.2
25.29
30.65
22.37
23.18
30.99
7.61
1.59
191.52
1.54
1.46
6.04
2.52
401.97
Average
20032012
37.20
9.17
24.73
17.40
16.94
23.60
4.80
0.89
137.72
1.52
1.25
7.55
2.46
285.38
291.14
20.32
291.14
147.44
Actual
2012
Project
2013
Actual
2013
Project
2014
Forecast
2014
58.47
26.55
31.16
23.29
24.00
31.80
7.86
1.67
197.50
1.57
1.52
6.04
2.60
415.10
59.99
23.46
34.71
23.29
22.60
31.11
6.67
2.84
231.57
2.94
2.56
5.73
2.35
451.38
60.74
27.81
31.66
24.22
24.82
32.62
8.10
1.76
203.48
1.61
1.59
6.05
2.68
428.24
57
25
31
22
24
32
8
2
230
2
2
7
3
445
305.39
162.09
319.65
122
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Overhead Expenses
Custom hire
Hired labor
Machinery & bldg leases
Farm insurance
Maximum Minimu
Values
m Values
2.23
1.4
7.98
2.87
5
1.25
5.83
1.81
Actual Average
2003-2012
2012
0
1.81
7.98
5.11
5
3.78
5.83
4.32
Project
2013
0.00
8.13
5.19
6.04
Actual Project Forecast
2013
2014
2014
0
0.00
0
7.49
8.28
8
4.83
5.39
5
6.49
6.24
6
3.45
1.54
3.33
2.75
3.40
3.40
3.48
4
2.41
6.42
35.13
6.06
70.26
0.16
3.04
14.9
3.01
34.55
2.34
4.58
35.13
6.06
70.26
1.41
5.09
25.43
4.65
53.84
2.46
4.66
35.64
6.13
71.67
2.51
4.53
40.13
6.33
75.71
2.59
4.74
36.16
6.20
73.07
3
5
35
6
72
Total dir & ovhd expenses per
acre
Net return per acre
Lbr & mgt charge per acre
Net return over lbr & mgt
472.23
195.92
472.23
339.22
486.77
527.09
501.31
517
220.88
41.14
179.74
-23.21
19.79
-47.04
220.88
41.14
179.74
93.60
30.75
69.32
233.73
42.05
191.68
86.38
39.44
46.94
246.57
42.96
203.61
50
45
5
Government payments
Net return with gov’t payments
42.16
196.92
0
-47.04
17.18
196.92
21.40
85.80
18.08
209.76
16.94
63.88
18.99
222.60
0
5
Utilities
Dues & professional fees
Interest
Mach & bldg depreciation
Miscellaneous
Total overhead expenses per acre
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Maximum
Value
8.64
Minimum
Value
3.5
Actual
2012
8.16
Total dir & ovhd exp per bu.
10.28
4.25
9.59
7.31
9.59
11.21
9.60
10.77
With labor & management
11.14
4.68
10.42
7.97
10.41
12.04
10.40
11.71
Total exp less govt & oth
income
Est. labor hours per acre
9.97
4.45
9.77
7.13
9.84
11.69
9.92
11.40
2.68
1.8
1.80
1.93
1.76
1.84
1.71
2
Cost of Production
Total direct expense per bu.
Average Project
03-2012
2013
6.15
8.20
Actual Project
2013
2014
9.60
8.24
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Forecast
2014
9.27
Rents at $230 in forecast example
Farmer Keeps:
$45 labor charge and
$5 net income
$50 Total
With 48 bushels soybeans at $11.50 per bushel
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
What if corn price is $10.00 per bushel?
Lower income by $72.00 per acre
Now farmer keeps:
No Labor Charge: $0
A Loss of
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
FINBIN DATA
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
www.finbin.umn.edu
Copyright © 2013. University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2013. University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Increasing Input costs
Copyright © 2013. University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Input Cost Trends
Input costs for corn have been increasing
at rate of 14.7% for corn since 2003.
Input costs for soybeans have increased at
a rate of 10.4% per year since 2003.
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Input Cost Trends
If you would apply the 14.7% increase per
year to 2012 numbers that would make 2013
total corn input cost direct and overhead
expense at $893.09 per acre or $5.02 per
bushel at 178 bushels per acre.
For 2014 total costs would be $1024.37 per
acre or $5.75 per bushel at 178 bushels per
acre.
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Input Cost Trends
If you would apply the 10.4% increase per
year to 2012 numbers that would make 2013
total soybean input cost direct and overhead
expense at $570.77 per acre or $11.89 per
bushel at 48 bushels per acre.
For 2014 total costs would be $630.13 per
acre or $13.13 per bushel at 48 bushels per
acre.
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Input Cost Trends
2014 corn yields of 178 bushels per acre @
$4.50 per bushel is total income of $801 with
expense at $1,024.37 per acre would be Net
Farm Income of
per acre.
2014 soybean yields of 48 bushels per acre @
$11.50 per bushel is $552 with expense at
$630.13 per acre would be Net Farm Income of
.
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
August 8, 2014
Month
SEP 2014
DEC 2014
JUL 2015
DEC 2015
DEC 2016
DEC 2017
Last
351'6
364'0
392'2
406'6
420'4
421'6
Change
-7'6
-7'2
-7'0
-5'6
0
-5'4
Prior
Settle
359'4
371'2
399'2
412'4
420'4
427'2
Open
358'6
370'4
398'6
411'2
416'0
424'2
High
359'4
371'0
398'6
411'6
422'0
424'2
Low
351'2
363'0
391'2
405'4
415'2
421'6
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
August 8, 2014
Month
SEP 2014
NOV 2014
JUL 2015
NOV 2015
NOV 2016
NOV 2017
Last
Change
1113'4 +14'2
1084'6
+6'6
1112'0 a +5'2
1084'0
+0'4
a
1062'0
-3'4
-
Prior
Settle
Open
High
Low
1099'2
1078'0
1106'6
1083'4
1065'4
1056'0
1097'4
1076'6
1105'0
1083'0
1067'4
-
1114'4
1085'0
1113'4
1086'6
1068'4
-
1097'4
1071'6
1101'0 a
1075'2
1060'0
-
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Corn Cash Rental Payment
After $664 per acre expenses including $70 labor charge
($824-$230 +$70= $664)
Yield Per Acre
Cash Price
$ 3.50
$ 4.00
$ 4.50
$ 5.00
$ 5.50
$ 6.00
$ 6.50
$ 7.00
130
$-209
$-144
$-79
$-14
$51
$116
$181
$246
145
$-157
$-84
$-12
$61
$134
$206
$279
$351
160
$-104
$-24
$56
$136
$216
$296
$376
$456
175
$-52
$36
$124
$211
$299
$386
$474
$561
190
$1
$96
$191
$286
$381
$476
$571
$666
205
$54
$156
$259
$361
$464
$566
$669
$771
Copyright © 2011-12. University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Minnesota Agricultural Statistic
Rental Information
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Minnesota Cropland and Pasture Rental Rates
Data provided by the Minnesota Agricultural Statistic Service
September 2012, 2011 and 2010 and May 2009
NASS.USDA.GOV
Cropland Rental Rates
County
Cottonwood
Jackson
Lincoln
Lyon
Murray
Nobles
Pipestone
Redwood
Rock
SOUTHWEST
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
224 204 160 146 137
222 178 155 155 146
168 149 141 132 116
210 174 146 146 132
213 205 159 158 137
212 185 170 148 141
191 156 140 136 137
222 184 178 156 144
226 213 182 172 161
212 183 159 149 139
Pasture Rental Rates
2013 2012 2011 2010
NA NA
NA
35
NA
37
NA
NA
48
50
NA
43
52.5 NA 30.5 47.5
53
34.5 49.5
58
NA NA
NA 50.5
46
48
42
41.5
NA NA
42
NA
61
51
NA
NA
51.5 49
47
47
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Minnesota Cropland and Pasture Rental Rates
Data provided by the Minnesota Agricultural Statistic Service
Cropland Rental Rates
September 2011 and 2010 and May 2009
Pasture Rental Rates
Irrigated
Region
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
2011
2010
NORTHWEST
98
NA
NA
160
189
72.5
212
246
239
177
81.5
NA
NA
128
164
60
183
216
192
150
75.5
NA
NA
118
151
62.5
159
181
174
135
62
23.5
10.5
108
132
46
149
162
160
121
61
21.5
4.5
100
119
44.5
139
154
151
113
16.5 18.5 13.5
12
14
14
5
10
8
31.5 28.5 22.5
23
15 15.5
15.5 12
12
47
51.5 49
NA NA 36.5
36.5 30.5 34
28
34 21.5
12
13
8.1
27.5
19
13.5
47
49
31.5
24
NORTH CENTRAL
NORTHEAST
WEST CENTRAL
CENTRAL
EAST CENTRAL
SOUTHWEST
SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA
2012
2012
121
133
NA
177
214
NA
NA
NA
NA
200
**Minnesota average cropland rent in 2014 $185 increased 4.5%
Down from 18% previous year and 11.1% increase in 2012
Pasture average in 2014 $26 declined 7%
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Farm Land Rental
Rate Trends
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Average Cropland Rental Rates paid in Adult Farm Management FINBIN database.
Calculated 2014 based on FINBIN rents increased 4.5 percent from 2013 to 2013 multiplied by 2013 rates to
estimate to determine 2014 rental rates
Average Rents Paid Per Acre
County
Southwest
Cottonwood
Jackson
Lincoln
Lyon
Murray
Nobles
Pipestone
Redwood
'02
93
101
69
80
82
91
78
89
'03
97
103
74
82
86
93
74
93
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
96 101 107
105 109 111
85 86 83
85 89 92
87 89 94
97 102 103
81 91 96
92 99 98
108
119
107
94
100
117
105
104
143
146
120
119
120
132
110
122
' 09
139
145
152
137
143
140
121
140
‘10
‘11
'12
'13
148
157
163
140
154
146
136
158
164
167
167
168
168
168
150
173
174
209
168
185
237
182
223
187
196
219
165
218
265
207
219
211
Est.
'14
205
229
172
228
277
216
229
220
Copyright @ 2011-12 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
-------------Average-------------
------------------------2013---------------------------10th
90th
2009
2010
2011
2012
Avg
Median
Pctile
Pctile
NASS
Est.
139
145
152
137
143
140
n/a
140
n/a
177
146
148
157
n/a
140
154
146
n/a
158
n/a
181
165
164
167
n/a
168
168
168
n/a
173
n/a
210
177
174
209
168
185
237
182
223
187
n/a
254
218
196
219
165
218
265
207
219
211
n/a
274
265
196
220
164
206
198
200
209
200
n/a
258
207
88
125
73
125
97
129
100
134
n/a
175
164
275
289
275
286
300
290
301
270
n/a
338
317
224
222
168
210
213
212
191
222
226
274
219
2015
Est.
____
____
____
____
____
____
____
____
____
____
____
South Central
Cottonwood
Jackson
Lincoln
Lyon
Murray
Nobles
Pipestone
Redwood
Rock
Martin
Watonwan
Copyright @ 2011-12 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Average Annual Change
2009-2013 2012-2013
in Land Rental Rates
Northwest
9.6%
11.2%
West Central
n/a
n/a
Central
11.6%
12.2%
East Central
4.5%
15.0%
Southwest
11.8%
10.2%
South Central
12.1%
10.7%
Southeast
10.9%
4.4%
State
11.6%
11.3%
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Land Values
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Corn and Soybeans County Yields
Yields from Minnesota Agricultural Statistic Service Annual Bulletins: 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009.
Corn
Soybeans
5 yr
5 yr
County
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 ave 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 ave
Cottonwood
Jackson
Lincoln
Lyon
Murray
Nobles
Pipestone
Redwood
Rock
Southwest
Minnesota
156.7 165.7
177.2 164.6
143.8 148.0
152.6 150.6
150.7 168.5
155.5 176.0
143.6 154.2
164.1 151.0
156.8 180.6
157.3 162.5
165.0 156.0
180.4
185.7
161.9
168.5
186.3
179.8
172.4
184.0
189.2
179.7
177.0
183.0
184.0
163.0
174.0
183.0
180.0
168.0
187.0
179.0
179.0
174.0
170.0
172.0
148.0
159.0
170.0
173.0
162.0
173.0
182.0
169.0
164.0
171.2
176.7
152.9
160.9
171.7
172.9
160.0
171.8
177.5
169.5
167.2
43.9
47.5
39.8
42.0
45.2
46.6
40.5
45.0
45.5
44.4
43.0
43.6
45.0
34.4
34.6
45.5
45.1
38.3
37.3
48.8
41.5
38.5
46.5
48.7
44.8
48.2
50.3
50.8
48.8
51.3
54.3
49.4
45.0
47.0
49.0
40.0
41.0
47.0
47.5
44.0
45.5
49.5
46.0
40.0
43.0
42.5
35.0
37.0
42.5
41.5
38.0
42.5
47.0
41.5
38.0
Copyright @ 2011-12 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
44.8
46.5
38.8
40.6
46.1
46.3
41.9
44.3
49.0
44.6
40.9
SW MINNESOTA COUNTY FARM LAND PRICES 2001-2012
Prepared by David Bau, Jim Nesseth 2002-2003
The amounts listed below are the prices paid per acre for total farmland (not tillable acres) in each listed county. The data is from farm sales recorded from
January 1st through June 30th of the respective years. The data includes only bare land sales. No land and building combination sales are included. The information
is from actual arms length sales reported to county authorities and collected by personnel of the University of Minnesota Extension. Sales data was not weighted for
acres, each sale on a per acre basis was averaged to get the average price paid per acre. In 2005 added counties Chippewa, Lac qui Parle, Redwood and Yellow
Medicine to study.
COUNTY
CHIPPEWA
COTTONWOOD
JACKSON
LAC QUI PARLE
LINCOLN
LYON
MARTIN
MURRAY
NOBLES
PIPESTONE
REDWOOD
ROCK
WATONWAN
YELLOW MED.
AVERAGE
2003
NA
$1625
$1790
$1220
$1223
$1676
$2091
$1672
2004
NA
$1854
$2111
$1461
$1172
$1878
$2476
$2039
2005
$2481
$2439
$2671
$1742
$1509
$2012
$2871
$2183
2006
$2582
$2853
$2969
$1933
$1624
$2303
$3092
$2286
2007
$2615
$3005
$3332
$2217
$2401
$2207
$3478
$2500
2008
$3776
$4423
$4425
$2474
$2343
$3912
$3783
$3523
2009
$3,932
$2,798
$3,999
$3,138
$2,917
$2,908
$4,446
$3,700
2010
$3,605
$3,699
$4,100
$3,326
$2,830
$3,373
$4,634
$3,919
2011
$3,892
$5,424
$6,453
$4,052
$3,464
$5,057
$4,509
$3,859
2012
$6,024
$7,807
$5,981
$4,174
$4,253
$6,284
$8,359
$5,678
2013
$7,288
$9,300
$7,665
$5,797
$7,501
$8,687
$9,401
$8,452
$1928
$1334
NA
$1926
$1842
NA
$1666
$2238
$1851
NA
$2139
$2193
NA
$1947
$2411
$1880
$2705
$2369
$2337
$2055
$2262
$2882
$2127
$2743
$2992
$3112
$2537
$2574
$3393
$2409
$2880
$3912
$3103
$2429
$2849
$4126
$3386
$3759
$5052
$3642
$3203
$3702
$3,939
$3,680
$4,158
$5,221
$4,000
$3,425
$3,733
$5,037
$3,511
$4,259
$4,783
$4,107
$3,595
$3,913
$4,850 $6,109
$4,433 $5,615
$5,445 $7,479
No Sales $7,839
$4,983 $6,349
$4,515 $5,481
$4,687 $6,245
$8,602
$9,400
$8,263
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
$11,074
$8,964
$8,125
$8,466
December 2014
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
November 2014
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Forty Year Range in Cash Prices
Worthington, Minnesota
SOYBEANS
CORN
Year
High
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
17.74
17.65
13.87
13.16
11.97
15.50
11.09
6.29
7.05
10.41
12.20
11.32
10.77
8.79
8.23
7.72
5.97
4.68
4.98
4.73
5.54
6.33
3.10
4.37
3.74
7.78
5.12
1.61
2.07
5.68
Average
8.32
5.63
2.69
Low Difference
Year
High
Low Difference
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
7.45
8.22
7.49
5.77
4.11
7.00
4.15
3.40
1.94
3.03
4.05
5.80
5.55
2.94
2.78
2.91
2.81
1.66
1.43
1.61
3.40
2.42
1.94
2.83
1.33
4.09
1.34
1.74
0.51
1.42
3.31
2.13
1.19
Average
Prepared by: David Bau – Regional Extension Educator, Agricultural Business Management
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
WORTHINGTON, MN CORN PRICE PROBABILITY
A=
1988-2012 crop years
25 years
B=
1998-2012 crop years
15 years
C=
2003-2012 crop years
10 years
D=
2008-2012 crop years
5 years
Corn Percent of Time
$ 7.00
$ 6.50
$ 6.00
$ 5.50
$ 5.00
$ 4.50
$ 4.00
$ 3.50
$ 3.00
A
4
7
10
12
14
16
17
22
30
B
7
11
16
20
23
25
26
33
44
C
11
16
25
30
34
37
39
50
67
D
21
32
47
54
58
60
62
76
96
Data collected by Erlin Weness and David Bau and prepared by David Bau.
WORTHINGTON, MN SOYBEAN PRICE PROBABILITY
A=
B=
C=
D=
1988-2012 crop year
1998-2012 crop years
2003-2012 crop years
2008-2012 crop years
25 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Soybeans Percent of Time
$15.00
$14.00
$13.00
$12.00
$11.00
$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
$7.00
A
2
5
9
12
15
18
23
27
35
B
3
8
15
20
26
29
38
43
48
C
4
12
23
30
38
44
57
65
72
Data collected by Erlin Weness and David Bau and prepared by David
D
8
23
40
50
62
69
89
99
100
Table 1. Average Southern Minnesota Cash Rent as a Percentage of Gross Revenue
Average Cash Rent Average Gross Revenue,
Average Cash Rent as %
Corn
Soybean
Paid Per Acre
Dollars per Acre
of Gross Revenue
Price
Price
Year
Southern MN
Corn
Soybeans
Corn
Soybeans
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Average
91.17
94.89
97.04
95.61
98.31
97.89
101.57
103.74
105.90
110.40
114.83
125.44
146.55
158.86
168.25
169.32
199.88
243.47
$329.89
$321.49
$287.29
$269.76
$267.31
$228.38
$344.09
$358.05
$351.40
$375.47
$511.27
$611.21
$681.06
$716.55
$884.41
$929.62
$1,182.80
$802.56
$282.20
$272.32
$254.93
$228.68
$237.56
$208.52
$258.52
$246.81
$228.30
$300.10
$316.05
$472.76
$432.32
$474.32
$564.02
$493.04
$693.11
$593.99
28%
30%
34%
35%
37%
43%
30%
29%
30%
29%
22%
21%
22%
22%
19%
18%
17%
30%
27.56%
32%
35%
38%
42%
41%
47%
39%
42%
46%
37%
36%
27%
34%
33%
30%
34%
29%
41%
36.83%
$2.46
$2.37
$1.77
$1.73
$1.75
$1.75
$2.18
$2.23
$2.00
$2.03
$2.90
$3.68
$3.89
$3.74
$4.68
$5.66
$6.50
$4.45
$6.84
$6.37
$5.15
$5.10
$5.11
$5.15
$5.31
$6.85
$5.45
$5.65
$6.05
$9.52
$9.65
$9.66
$10.87
$11.40
$13.77
12.63
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Worthington Yearly Average Cash Prices
Calendar Year
Corn
Soybeans
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
10 YR Average
$6.04
$6.83
$6.62
$3.84
$3.40
$4.92
$3.38
$2.15
$1.68
$2.32
$4.12
$13.99
$12.64
$12.83
$10.01
$9.89
$11.59
$7.78
$5.39
$5.80
$7.53
$9.75
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.
Questions??
http://www.extension.umn.edu/agriculture/business/
2014 Farm Resource Guide
David Bau
Regional Extension Educator
Agricultural Business Management
University of Minnesota Extension
[email protected]
Copyright @ 2012-13 University of Minnesota All Rights Reserved.