Transcript Global Water Challenges and the Potential Contribution of

Global Water Challenges:
The View of the World Bank
Chapel Hill
March 4 2005
www.worldbank.org/water
What I would like to discuss
with you today ….
1. Reflections on some changes in the water
and sanitation sector in the developing
world in the past decade
2. A view of some of the broader water
resource challenges in developing
countries
3. Some thoughts on the role a great
university might play in addressing these
challenges
Part 1: Some changes in
water and sanitation in the
past decade…
The numbers...
• Water supply
-- about 1
billion don’t
have access to
an adequate
supply of
drinking water
• Sanitation and sewerage:
• 2 billion people don’t have facilities....
Huge costs...
• Economic:
• Large numbers of the poor rely on vendors
•
They pay 10 times as much for a cubic
meter of often-dirty water.....
Huge social costs...
• Health.....
3 million
children
die each
year
from
water
related
diseases
Huge costs
for the
environment
...
How do things improve?
A personal observation of a
place where there was
dramatic improvement in
water and sanitation
coverage (and health)
Fatepur, Bangladesh, 1976:
Lives of utter misery…
Fatepur, 1998
A simple and astonishing change
• Economic growth (much induced by
better water management) led to
– Large increase in demand for improved
water and sanitation
– Greatly improved coverage and (due to
water and sanitation and other things)
– Life expectancy of women:
• From 47 years in 1976
• To 67 years in 1998
There have been similar successes
in some other parts of the world…
The glass half full…
This has been a tremendous achievement…
Every day for the last 10 years, huge
numbers of people have gained access to
improved services:
– Drinking water: about 250,000 every day
– Sanitation: about 205,000 every day
But population growth is about 215,000 a day…
And thus there has been little net progress,
and there are still billions without service:
• over 1 billion for drinking water, and
• about 2.5 billion for sanitation…
Economic growth critical for
improving wastewater quality
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/l)
14
12
ACCEPTABLE
KEY:
10
8
low-income
countries
middle-income
countries
high-income
countries
c 1980
6
NOT
ACCEPTABLE
c 1995*
4
2
0
More generally….
There is a lot that can be
done better by being
smarter…
but it is also clear that
progress is happening and
sustainable where there is
economic growth…
It is economic growth which reduces poverty….
The news on economic
growth is mixed…
Percentage of people who are poor
70
Middle East and North
Africa
60
Latin America and the
Caribbean
50
Europe and Central Asia
%
40
sub-Saharan Africa
30
South Asia
20
East Asia and Pacific
10
TOTAL
0
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2001
So…
• Sustained economic growth in East
and South Asia is underpinning
improvements in global coverage
• But Africa is a big worry..
MAIN MESSAGE: Development of innovative, low-cost
approaches helps, but it is economic growth which - in
Fatepur and globally – is improving and will improve watsan
coverage…
Part 2: Water resource
challenges in developing countries
a) A World Bank perspective of the
challenges facing developing
countries
b) The evolving role of the World Bank
A new World Bank Water
Resources Strategy
PROCESS
• The method for developing a new World Bank
Strategy in a vital and contentious area
1993 World
Bank Policy
Paper which
set out the
Bank’s
commitment
to Dublintype
principles
for WRM
The consultation process
• Extensive internal and external
consultations over 3 year period
• 22 external consultations
Multistakeholder
Consultations 1999/2000….
Int’l waters
Washington
Yemen
India
Philippines
Nigeria
Brazil
Main question: How can the World Bank be a better partner?
Consultations with governments on the
World Commission on Dams Report….
Nepal
Jordan
China
Laos
Ethiopia
Thailand
Brazil
A focus: What can and should the World Bank be doing on
“high-risk/high reward” water infrastructure?
Consultations on the Strategy Draft (2002)
NGOs
Donors
Private
Sector
Yemen
India
Philippines
Nigeria
Brazil
The focus: Reactions and suggestions on the draft Strategy
The Brasilia consultation….
The consultation process
• (Unprecedented) total of 5 meetings
of the World Bank’s Board
(representatives of the 180
countries who own this “financial
cooperative”)
The Story Line
PROCESS
• The method for developing this Strategy
SUBSTANCE
• Water management and development are vital
for growth and poverty reduction
• Better water management is essential
• Most developing countries also need investment
in priority water infrastructure
• Solutions need to be tailored to particular
circumstances
How Water Interventions Affect Poverty
Nature of intervention:
broad
affecting
water...
poverty
targeted
resource
development &
management
service
delivery
Type 4 : Targeted
improved water
services
Targeted irrigation, energy and water supply and sanitation services
for the poor are fundamental to poverty reduction….
How Water Interventions Affect Poverty
Nature of intervention:
broad
affecting
water...
resource
development &
management
service
delivery
Type 3 : Broad
impacts through
water service
delivery reforms
poverty
targeted
Most water utilities in
developing countries
perform very poorly…
Fela Kuti:
If I say there is no
water and no
electricity…
That’s old news….
And the poor are
always at the end of
the line, paying 10
times what those
with access pay for
a gallon of water
What water utility reform has meant
for the poor in Buenos Aires
• Today in Argentina, lots of
challenges…. But major achievements
for the poor
• Approximately 1.5 million additional
poor people now have access to piped
water and 600,000 access to
sewerage
How Water Interventions Affect Poverty
Nature of intervention:
broad
affecting
water...
resource
development &
management
service
delivery
poverty
targeted
Type 2 :
Targeted
water resource
interventions
UP
Sodic
Lands
Projec
A brilliant integration of women on the credit side…
Economic Impact of UP Sodic Lands Project
Before
After
4000
3000
Rupees per
capita per 2000
year
1000
0
Landless
Marginal
farmers
Small
farmers
"Big"
farmers
How Water Interventions Affect Poverty
Nature of intervention:
broad
affecting
water...
resource
development &
management
service
delivery
Type 1 : Broad
region -wide
water resource
interventions
poverty
targeted
Investments in water
resources development and
management have broad,
region-wide impacts:
Large economic and employment
multipliers:
• 2 or more in wide variety of settings:
–
–
–
–
–
Tamil Nadu in India
Muda Basin in Malaysia
Sao Francisco Basin in Brazil
Columbia Basin in US
New South Wales in Australia…
For example: The Bhakra-Beas complex in India
Irrigated 7 million hectares and provided 2800 mw of power
A major recent World Bank retrospective assessment of the economic
impact
•The indirect benefits were as large as the direct power and irrigation
benefits
% change of Income of Different Types of Households With
and Without Bhakra Dam
80
60
40
20
0
Landowners
Agr Labor
Rural Non Agr Rural Others
Urban
• Landless laborers benefited (proportionately) more that landowners…
• and this does not include the million seasonal workers who migrate from
Bihar to Punjab and Haryana each year….
But what are the NET effects on the poor -- the
example of India?
Income
per
capita
Net effect:
Unirrigated districts (< 10% of cropped area irrigated) --- 69% below poverty line
Irrigated districts (> 50% of cropped area irrigated) --- 26% below poverty line
Many ramifications….
Returns to five years of education in India:
32% in irrigated districts
0% in unirrigated districts
Those who provide water are gods…
THE SPECIAL CASE
OF POOR,
MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTRIES
• Those with “water and gravity” next to large markets…
• Nepal, Bhutan, Lesotho, Laos, Uganda…
• Nepal and US have about the same hydro potential
• US has developed 70,000 mw
• Nepal has developed 300 mw
• Potential of huge economic benefits from royalties (~5% GNP)…
• The great challenges
– Can only be done if risks are shared between the government, the private
sector and multilateral development banks
– Can this be done in a way that is socially and environmentally responsible and
realistic?
– Can development of natural resources be a boon (the Botswana path) ?
– Not a bane (the Angola model)?
The
important
case of peace
and security
dividends
from sharing
benefits
from
international
waters
…..260 “river” basins shared by 2+
nations
After
Cooperative arrangements
for generating and sharing
benefits from international
rivers can have major
security and development
payoffs…
I nd
us
The Indus Irrigation (1947)
l um
e
h
J
Ra
Pakistan
Ch
en
ab
Bea
s
vi
lej
Sut
India
The Indus - The Treaty (1960)
Pakistan
India
The “glue” behind the Treaty – major dams (Tarbela and
Mangla in Pakistan, Bhakra and Pong in India), canals and
inter-basin transfers….
Tarbela Dam in Pakistan…
Another international benefit-sharing endeavour, with major
potential security and development payoffs…. “in the early
days” on the Nile…
MAIN CONCLUSIONS:
•All four types (not just Type 4) are important for
poverty reduction
Nature of intervention:
broad
resource
development &
affecting
management
water...
poverty
targeted
Type 1: Broad
Type 2 :
region -wide
Targeted
water resource
water resource
interventions
interventions
Type 3 : Broad
service
impacts through
delivery
water service
delivery reforms
Type 4 : Targeted
improved water
services
•The World Bank, like countries, needs to be engaged in
all four quadrants in a coherent and mutually-reinforcing
program…
The Story Line
PROCESS
• The method for developing this Strategy
SUBSTANCE
• Water management and development are vital
for growth and poverty reduction
• Better water management AND development
are essential
• Better management is essential and difficult
• Most developing countries also need investment
in priority water infrastructure
• Solutions need to be tailored to particular
circumstances
Morocco as an example
Massive investments in water infrastructure have
provided a platform for Morocco’s economic growth
The development phase is
largely over in Morocco
30
25
20
Groundwa
ter
BCM 15
10
Surface
water
5
0
Total
Usable
Mobilized
2001
Expected to
be mobilized
2020
The new challenges in Morocco are
primarily management…
Reducing mining of groundwater in Souss Basin
and elsewhere….
Wastewater treatment and water quality management i
the Sebou Basin (and elsewhere)…
Severe water pollution in many parts of the Sebou Basin…
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Excellent
Good
Moderate
Bad
Very bad
With major economic and health
impacts downstream
QED: At an earlier time Morocco’s challenges were
primarily “type 1”; now they are largely of “type 3”…
The Story Line
PROCESS
• The method for developing this Strategy
SUBSTANCE
• Water management and development are vital
for growth and poverty reduction
• Better water management is essential
• Most developing countries also need investment
in priority water infrastructure
• Solutions need to be tailored to particular
circumstances
There is a global consensus on the
principles which govern sound water
management…
The Dublin Principles
• The “ecological” principle:
– holistic (including environment),
comprehensive, inter-sectoral...
• The “institutional” principle:
– stakeholder participation
– subsidiarity (federal, state,
municipality, users…)
– greater role for private sector,
NGOs and women
• The “instrument” principle:
– greater attention to economic
value of alternative uses
– greater use of economic instruments
(water rights, user charges…)
But what about translating
principles into practice?
• “insufficient progress
with integrating
environmental and
sectoral policies”,
• “prices seldom reflect
full economic and
environmental costs”,
• “demand management
policies still little
developed”,
• “agricultural water use
still heavily subsidized”
• “the progress achieved
to date is the result of
many years of effort”.
And in developing countries?
• Countries are doing much better in
policy than in practice…
How has Country X done in Water Resource Management?
Comprehensive:
 Some state and basin plans, national plan beginning
 Ecological and hydropower not integrated into plans
 Weak stakeholder participation
 Lack of financing to implement plans
Green
Institutional:
 State and national water laws—weak implementation
 Laws for bulk water charges not yet approved
 State and federal water councils, river basin
committees—limited policy and planning influence
 Fledging water resource management agencies at state
and national level
Yellow
Economic:
 Heavily subsidized water resource infrastructure
without explicit justification
 Very limited bulk water charging
 State Water Funds undercapitalized
Red
What does this mean for
peoples’ lives?
•Minister of Finance, India:
•India facing a growing series of “little civil
wars” over water rights…
•Minister of Water Resources Dasmunshi:
–“I am not the Minister of Water Resources
but the Minister of Water Conflicts”
“Little” civil wars in India…
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Between states
Between different users in a basin
Between communities and the State
Between farmers and the city
Between farmers within command
areas….
6. Between farmers and the
environment
Conflicts between farmers and the environment at
India’s most important bird sanctuary
A renowned Ramsar site…
Turned into a cattle pasture…
Irrigation/nature trades?
• If rights had been clearly established – for
both the farmers and the Sanctuary –
there would have been no issue
• Now the World Bank is working with the
Global Environment Facility:
– To formalize the water rights of the farmers;
– To set up a trust fund to make “forebearance
payments” to compensate farmers for release
of water for the National Park
So what are the lessons on
the crucial issue of
implementation?
The natural, economic and
political challenges facing
developing countries vary
enormously…..
Hydrological…
Wealth…
$ 70 -$80 per person per day
$ 2 - $5
$ 55- $10
per person
per day
< $2
Form of economic organization… Form of political organization…
Given such heterogeneity
(even within regions and
countries…) are there any
general lessons?
We DO see some general
lessons on “what must be
done to translate principles
into practice”….
Initiate reform where
there is a powerful need, and
demonstrated demand, for change
Involve those affected, and address
their concerns with effective,
understandable information
Develop a sequenced,
prioritized list of reforms…