Transcript Compatibility - Governors Highway Safety Association

A Data Approach to Highway Safety:
What Do the Numbers Tell Us?
GHSA Annual Meeting
September 20, 2003  Oklahoma City, OK
Susan Ferguson Ph.D
IIHS
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS)
 Nonprofit research and communications organization
founded in 1959
 IIHS mission to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce
property damage in crashes
 Research goal to determine what works and what
doesn’t to improve highway safety
 Funded entirely by automobile insurance companies
IIHS
Ability to translate research findings into
practice is critical in reducing losses
 Need strong communications component
 Get research findings out to wide audience in
non- technical language
 Providing consumers with relevant and timely
safety information
 Serve on research and policy committees
IIHS
Haddon matrix
Human
Pre-crash
Crash
Post-crash
Losses
IIHS
Vehicles &
equipment
environment
GHSA and IIHS share common goals
 IIHS’s mission is to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce
property damage in crashes
 GHSA’s mission is to provide leadership in the development of
national policy to ensure effective highway safety programs
 We provide the research to help you do your job
 Worked successfully together on a number of issues
including, airbag safety, speed, cell phones, occupant restraint
use
IIHS
Trends in driver death rates
IIHS
Driver death rates per million registered vehicles
By vehicle age and calendar year
210
vehicles >1 year old
1-3-year-old vehicles
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
1985
IIHS
90
95
year
2000
Driver death rates per million registered vehicles
By vehicle age and calendar year
210
vehicles >1 year old
1-3-year-old vehicles
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
1985
IIHS
90
95
year
2000
Driver death rates per registered vehicle
Actual
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
1985
IIHS
90
95
year
2000
Driver death rates per registered vehicle
Actual vs. hypothetical 1985 fleet
220
actual
200
hypothetical
180
160
140
120
100
80
1985
IIHS
90
95
year
2000
Driver behavior priority areas
 Alcohol-impaired driving
 Belt use
 Speeding
 Motorcycle riders
 Driver distraction
IIHS
Alcohol-impaired driving
IIHS
Percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers
with BACs at or above 0.08 percent
1982-2005
50
40
30
20
10
0
IIHS
1982
85
90
95
2000
05
Three goals
 Deter potential offenders
 Catch those who offend
 Sanction those you catch
IIHS
Assessment of checkpoint effectiveness
Centers for Disease Control, 2002
IIHS
number of
studies
median decrease
in alcohol-related
crashes
random breath test
checkpoints
12
18%
sobriety
checkpoints
11
20%
Traditional sobriety checkpoints
IIHS
Low manpower checkpoint in Greenbrier County
IIHS
Percent of drivers with BACs > 0.05 percent
Weekend nights, spring 2003 and 2004
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Before
During
Study counties
IIHS
Before
During
Comparison counties
MADD International Technology Symposium
 MADD will work with states to increase use of breath
alcohol ignition devices for convicted DWI offenders
 Blue Ribbon Panel for Development of Advanced Alcohol
Detection Technology
– cooperative research spearheaded by MADD, Alliance
of Automobile Manufacturers, IIHS, and NHTSA to
develop advanced alcohol detection system
– IIHS to chair
 Build public support for vehicle-based approach
IIHS
Safety belt use
IIHS
Driver belt use in United States
100
90
80%
80
70
60%
60
50
40%
40
30
20%
20
10
0
1981 83
84
86
88
90
91
94
96
year
IIHS
98
99 2000 01
02
03
04
05
Percent belt use reported by states, 2005
50-54
NH*
primary
55-59
secondary
MS
65-69
AR, KS, KY, MA, SD
70-74
FL, WI, WY**
75-79
AK, CO, ID, ME, MO, NE, ND, OH, RI
80-84
MN, MT, PA, VA
85-89
UT, VT, WV
90-95
AZ, NV
0
IIHS
no law
60-64
1
SC. TN
LA
AL, CT, DE, IN, OK
DC, IL, IA, NJ, NY, NC
CA, GA, HI, MD, MI, NM, OR, TX, WA
2
*estimated rates from 2003
**2004 data
3
4
5
6
7
8
number of states
9
10
11
12
13
14
What works to increase belt use
 Strong laws and publicized enforcement
 Equipping vehicles with belt reminder systems
IIHS
Belt reminder systems
 Intermittent flashing lights and sometimes chimes for
extended period to prompt unbelted drivers
 About 85% of 2006 models have some kind of belt
reminder system
 Ford system increased driver belt use from 71% to 76%;
Honda system from 84% to 90%
IIHS
Speed matters
IIHS
About one-third of all fatalities occur in
speeding-related crashes
IIHS
Relation of speed to crashes and crash severity
 Increases in speed are associated with increases
in crashes; reductions in speed are associated
with reductions in crashes
 The risk of being injured or killed in a crash
increases with increasing speed
IIHS
Enforcement is key
IIHS
Speed cameras are effective but underutilized
 Proven countermeasure against speed violations
and crashes
 Widely used throughout the world
IIHS
Evaluation of speed cameras in Washington, D.C.
Percent change at camera sites relative to control 6 months
after enforcement
average speed
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
-90%
IIHS
proportion exceeding
speed limit by 11+ mph
Effects of speed cameras on speeds and crashes
Cochrane review, 2006
Effects on speed
 Reductions of 50-65% in the proportion of speeding
vehicles traveling 15km/h or more above the speed limit
Effects on crashes
 Reductions in injury crashes from 8–46%;
40–45% for serious and fatal crashes
IIHS
Conclusions
 Speed is an important factor in crash likelihood, as
well as risk of injury and death
 Strong enforcement is key
 Automated speed enforcement is the way forward
and needs to be used more widely in the U.S.
IIHS
Motorcycles
IIHS
Motorcyclist deaths
By age, 1975-2005
4,000
< 29 years old
30-39 years old
3,000
> 40 years old
2,000
1,000
0
1975
IIHS
80
85
90
95
2000
05
Helmet use laws in U.S. states
January 1997 compared with March 2005
WA
NH
ND
MT
VT
MN
ME
SD
OR
ID
WI
WY
NY
MI
MA
IA
NE
IL
NV
UT
CO
KS
PA
OH
IN
NJ
MO
WV
KY
CA
DE
VA
RI
CT
MD
TN
OK
AZ
NC
AR
NM
LA
DC
SC
MS
AL
GA
TX
FL
AK
universal law
no law or
limited law
HI
IIHS
States with universal helmet laws
55
50
45
1976: Highway Safety Act removed
authority to withhold funds from
states without helmet laws
40
35
1995: Grants removed
1991: Incentive grants for
helmet and safety belt laws
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1966 68
IIHS
70
72
1967: Helmet laws
required for states to
qualify for federal
highway funds
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
Observed motorcycle helmet use in U.S. (percent)
NHTSA
DOT-compliant
non-compliant
any helmet
100
80
60
40
20
0
1994
IIHS
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2005
Motorcycle helmet laws
 Helmet use is virtually 100% in states with universal
laws versus about 50% in other states
 Motorcyclist deaths and injuries decline when helmet
use is mandated and increase after laws are
weakened or repealed
 In Florida motorcyclist deaths per crash increased 25
percent after the law was weakened in 2000
IIHS
Driver distractions
IIHS
What is driver distraction?
"A grave problem that developed in New Hampshire…
now has all the motor-vehicle commissioners of the
eastern states in a wax. It's whether radios should be
allowed on cars. Some states don't want to permit them
at all - say they distract the driver and disturb the
peace…The commissioner (of Massachusetts) thinks the
things should be shut off while you are driving…The
whole problem is getting very complex, but the upshot is
that you'll probably be allowed to take your radio
anywhere, with possibly some restriction on the times
when you can play it."
(Nicholas Trott in 1930 as cited by Goodman et al., 1997)
IIHS
If you build it they will come
IIHS
Vehicles have built-in hands
free technology, like OnStar,
with voice activation. Other
wireless technologies, such
as Bluetooth, eliminate the
need for wired connections
between cell phones and
other electronic products
and accessories.
OnStar
Bluetooth
IIHS
Other potentially
distracting in-vehicle
technologies and gadgets
are increasingly available.
navigation system
navigation system
IIHS
Automotive News, May 1, 2006
IIHS
The mobile lifestyle is alive and well
IIHS
Percent of drivers observed talking on
hand-held phones, 2000-2005
NHTSA
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
IIHS
2002
2004
2005
Making it easier to usewill it lead to less distraction?
IIHS
Is injury crash risk associated with phone use?
IIHS study in Western Australia, 2005
 Phone use associated with fourfold increase in risk of
injury crash
 Increased risk similar for hands-free and hand-held
phones
 Increased risk similar for males and females, for drivers
30+ and younger than 30
IIHS
Can you legislate the problem away?
IIHS
Cell phone bans
September 2006
statewide hand-held ban
teenage drivers
school bus drivers
by local jurisdiction
IIHS
last updated: 9-15-06
Percentage of drivers using hand-held cell
phones before and after New York law
Connecticut and New York
3.5
3
2.5
before law
Law implemented Nov. 2001
3 months after
15 months after
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
New York
IIHS
Connecticut
Percentage of drivers using hand-held phones
Washington, D.C., metro area
10
March 2004
October 2004
October 2005
8
6
4
2
0
D.C.
IIHS
Maryland
Virginia
Don’t look to laws to solve the problem
 Effects of hand-held phone bans on crashes unknown
 Both hands-free and hand-held phones increase
crash risk
 May be potential benefits from hand-held phone bans if
drivers who don’t switch to hands-free use phone less
or not at all
 Unclear how to enforce ban on hands-free phone use
 Use of hands-free phones likely to increase with
availability of Bluetooth technology
IIHS
In-vehicle cell phones
The next generation
IIHS
The Way Forward
 More progress in the last decade in vehicle
crashworthiness than in changing driver behavior
 Large gains in seat belt use in recent years, but higher
use rates would save many additional lives
 Alcohol-impaired driving and speeding should be top
priorities for enacting stronger laws and enforcement
 Motorcycle ridership and deaths are up, especially
among baby boomers, but progress could be made
with universal helmet laws in every state
IIHS
For more information:
www.iihs.org
IIHS