Transcript China’s Energy Policy and Energy Efficiency Policies for

Updates on the Chinese Energy
Sector and on the China LEAP
Modeling Effort
Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling Zhang
EETC, Tsinghua University, China
4th Asia Energy Security Workshop
6-7 November 2006, Beijing, China
Part A: Update on the Chinese
Energy Sector
Yanjia Wang
Where Does China’s Energy Go?
• Basic facts in 2005
– Primary energy production 2.063 billion tce, 10% higher than
previous year;
– Total energy consumption 2.225 billion tce, 9.47% higher than
2004;
– Coal consumption 2.14 billion ton, 11.4% higher
– Power installed capacity: 517.18GW, 16.9% higher
– Power generated: 2,497.5TWh, 13.82% higher
– Crude oil consumption 3300 million ton, 13.8% higher
– Crud oil import (net): 119 million ton, 1.4% higher
– Petroleum import (net): 143.6 million ton, 5.2% less
– Elasticity of energy production & consumption: 0.96
– Elasticity of electricity production: 1.24
– Elasticity of electricity consumption: 1.22
Where Does China’s Energy Go?
• Macro control effected, but still a long way to go
2002
2003
2004
2005
Elasticity of energy
consumption
0.66
1.53
1.59
0.96
Elasticity of electricity
consumption
1.30
1.56
1.52
1.22
Growth of crude oil import (net)
--
33.4%
41.4% 1.45%
Growth of oil products import
(net)
--
49.3%
83.6% -33.9%
Commissioned power capacity
Total energy consumption
growth rate
50GW 66.7GW
6.0%
15.3%
16.1% 9.5%
Coal Plays Dominate Role Continuously
Energy Production
Energy Consumption
1990
2003
2004
2005
1990
2003 2004
2005
Coal
74.2
75.1
76.0
76.3
76.2
68.4
68.0
68.7
Oil
19.0
14.8
13.4
12.6
16.6
22.2
22.3
21.2
NG
2.0
2.8
2.9
3.2
2.1
2.6
2.6
2.8
Elec.
4.8
7.3
7.7
7.9
5.1
6.8
7.1
7.3
Year
Mix of Energy Consumption in 2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
hydro
60%
nuclear
50%
coal
40%
NG
oil
30%
20%
10%
0%
World
OECD
China
Power Industry
Year
Capacity/GW
Share/%
Total
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Total
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
1980
65.9
45.6
20.3
--
100
69.2
30.8
--
1990
137.89
101.84
36.05
--
100
73.9
26.1
--
1995
217.22
162.94
52.18
2.10
100
75.0
24.0
0.1
2000
319.32
237.54
79.25
2.10
100
74.4
24.8
0.1
2003
391.41
289.77
94.90
6.19
100
74.0
24.2
1.6
2005
517.85
391.37
116.52
8.7
100
75.90
22.5
1.6
Wind
1.26GW
PV 15MW
1972-2004 New Constructed
Power Plant (104 kW)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
72
9
1
74
9
1
76
9
1
78
9
1
80
9
1
82
9
1
84
9
1
86
9
1
88
9
1
90
9
1
92
9
1
94
9
1
96
9
1
98
9
1
00
0
2
02
0
2
04
0
2
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN CHINA
GDP按2000年可比价计算
3.50
3.00
2.89
GDP按2000年可比价计算
2.79
2.57
2.50
2.40
2.26
2.18
2.11
1.92
2.00
1.71 1.60
1.50
1.51 1.47
1.58
1.45 1.50
???
1.00
0.50
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
0.00
Renewable Energy Law Effected on
Jan. 1st 2006
NDRC issued a document for pricing
renewable energy for power generation on
Jan. 4th 2006.
• Biomass for power tariff = coal-fired tariff
(including deSOx) + 0.25yuan/kWh for 15
years
• Wind power: tendering price and lowest
bidder’s price
• PV, geothermal, wave..: project based
approval price
20% Energy Efficiency Target
• National 11th Five-Year Plan(2006-2010):
Energy intensity of GDP will decrease
about 20% within 5 years.
• Give a quantified target on energy
efficiency for the first time in five-year
plans
• Divide total target to provincial, large
industrial group, city, large energy
consumers’ target to implement.
Tremendous Efforts Must be Made on
Energy Efficiency Improvement
GDP Annual Growth Rate (2006-2010)
(%)
Total GDP Growth
during 2006 to 2010
（Times）
Energy Elasticity
7.0
1.403
0.303
7.5（Government anticipation 2006-2010）
1.436
0.341
8.5
1.504
0.403
9.0（2000-2005 average ）
1.539
0.429
9.9（growth rate of 2005）
1.603
0.468
10.0
1.615
0.472
11.0
1.685
0.508
15.0（GDP double within 5 years）
2.011
0.602
Three Gorge Hydropower Fully Operate for the
First Time
•
•
•
•
14×700MW generators fully
operate on Oct. 18 2006
14×700MW generators
commissioned on Sept. 2005
The first generator commissioned
on July 2003
26×700MW generators will
commission by the end of 2008
Sluice will reach designed level-- 156
meter
• Water level before 156 meter
(bottom) (taken on Aug. 8th 2006)
• Water level reached 154.24 meter
(top) (taken on Oct. 22, 2006)
40GW Nuclear Power by 2020
Weihai, 195MW Domestic
Gas cooling reactor,
Another two plants in
Rongchen, Hai Yang are
under planning
Northeast
☆
Hongheyan 2GW,
2011 finished
Beijing
First phase in Tianwan,
Russian Pressed Water
Reactor, being built.
North China
☆
Northwest
☆
☆
Southwest
☆
☆
☆
East China
☆
Central South
☆
First and Second
Phases in Qinshan,
domestic Pressed
Water Reactor,
operating;
The third phase in
Qinshan, Canadian
Heavy Water Reactor,
being built;
Sanmen, 6GW,
domestic Pressed
Water Reactor
Yangjiang, authorized,
technique to be chosen.
Daya Bay, Ling’ao, French
Pressed Water Reactor,
operating
Yangjiang 6GW, 2012
finished
Operated Nuclear Power Plant List
Capacity
Nuclear Power Plant
Qinshan I
(MWe)
279
Date
Reactor
Reactor Critical Operation
Supplier
PWR
Oct.1991 Apr.1994
CNNC
Qinshan II
(reactor 1)
Qinshan II
(reactor 2)
Qinshan III
(reactor 1)
Qinshan III
(reactor2)
Daya Bay I & II
610
PWR
Nov.2001 Jun.2002
CNNC
610
PWR
Sep.2002 Apr.2003
CNNC
665
PHWR Oct.2002 Feb.2003
AECL
665
PHWR Jul.2003 Nov.2003
AECL
944
PWR
Jul.1993
Fra
Baya Bay II
944
PWR
Jan.1994 May1994
Fra
Ling Ao I& II
935
PWR
Feb.2002
2003
Fra
Ling Ao III & IV
935
PWR
2010-2011
Fra
Tianwan I & II
1000
PWR
Apr.2004
2007
Russia
Qinshan VI & VII
610
PWR
Apr.2005
2010
CNNC
1994
Qinshan I
Qinshan II
Qinshan III
China Vice Primary Minister and Canadian Primary
Minister attend the creamery of Qinshan III
commissioned
2×700 MW
US$2.88
billion
Daya Bay
Location of Nuclear Power Plants in Asia
Part B:China LEAP Modeling Effort
Basic assumptions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Base year: 2000 (2005)
Target year: 2030
Dataset: AES2005
LEAP2006 (slow calculation)
Three scenarios: BAU, NAP,RAP
Check inputs and outputs of base year (finish)
GDP adjustment in 2004
The construction of new socialist
countryside in China
• Narrow the widening gap between rural and
urban China
• Improve agricultural production, living
standards and public administration in the
rural areas
• Rural facilities will be improved
• Rural consumption structure will be
changed
Wind power industry update
• Wind power installed capacity in 2005:
1.26GW, increment: 0.498 GW (39%)
• Localization of 70%
• Initial investment: 7500-8500 yuan/kW
• In 2020, wind power installed capacity: 30GW
(finish)
CDM projects in China
• CDM projects will decrease the operation cost in
power industry in China (doing)
• Emission factor in China: about 0.8
kgCO2e/kWh(coal-fired)
• CERs (Certified emission reductions): US $
10/tCO2e
• Emission reduction benefits: 0.064yuan/kWh
• Average electricity tariff: 0.309 yuan/kWh
Nuclear power scenarios in China
S1
S2 (BAU)
S3
S1
S2 (BAU)
S3
2005
2010
2020
Installed
Installed
Installed
capacity
share
capacity
share
capacity
share
(GW)
(GW)
(GW)
8.7
1.60%
25
3.50%
45
4.50%
8.7
1.60%
20
2.80%
40
4.00%
8.7
1.60%
15
2.10%
30
3.00%
2005
2010
2020
Installed
Installed
Installed
capacity
share
capacity
share
capacity
share
(GW)
(GW)
(GW)
8.7
1.30%
30
3.90%
70
7.00%
8.7
1.30%
20
2.60%
40
4.00%
8.7
1.30%
14
1.80%
20
2.00%
Transformation Results: Capacity
Scenario: BAU Reference, Capacity: All Capacities
Existing Lar Scale Coal Fire
Hydro
Nuclear
Windpower
Gas fire
Oil combustion
CHP
Solar pv
Geothermal
Advanced Large Coal fire
CCGT base load
New Biomass
New Landfill Gas
New import from RFE to Beijing
New import from RFE to Shenyang
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
Nuclear
300
200
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Demand Results: Energy demand final units
Scenario: BAU Reference, Fuel: All Fuels
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,600
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Households
Industry
Commerce
Transport
Agriculture
Adjustment
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Ongoing
• Transport sector (substitute fuel
development)
• Renewable energy development in China:
renewable energy power plants…
• ......
Thank you!
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