Transcript No Slide Title

METODE
ILMIAH
Soemarno 2014
SAINS
Sains (dari bahasa Latin scientia, berarti “pengetahuan")
merupakan suatu “enterprise” yang membangun dan
mengorganisir pengetahuan dalam bentuk eksplanasi dan
prediksi yang dapat diuji mengenai “jagad raya”.
In an older and closely related meaning (found, for example, in
Aristotle), "science" refers to the body of reliable knowledge
itself, of the type that can be logically and rationally explained.
In the early modern era the words "science" and "philosophy"
were sometimes used interchangeably in the English language.
Diunduh dari:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science ….. 22/9/2012
FILSAFAT SAINS
Filsafat Sains membahas tentang asumsi-asumsi, landasan,
metode-metode, dan implikasi dari sains.
Filsafat Sains juga berhubungan dengan penggunaan dan
manfaat sains dan kadang-kadang overlaping dengan
metafisik dan epistemologi dengan jalan mengeksplorasi
apakah hasil-hasil ilmiah merupakan kajian tentang
kebenaran.
In addition to these central problems of science as a whole,
many philosophers of science also consider problems that apply
to particular sciences (e.g. philosophy of biology or philosophy
of physics).
Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_of_science ….. 22/9/2012
PENJELASAN ILMIAH
In addition to providing predictions about future events, we often take
scientific theories to offer explanations for those that occur regularly or
have already occurred. Philosophers have investigated the criteria by
which a scientific theory can be said to have successfully explained a
phenomenon, as well as what gives a scientific theory explanatory
power.
One early and influential theory of scientific explanation was put
forward by Carl G. Hempel and Paul Oppenheim in 1948. Their
Deductive-Nomological (D-N) model of explanation says that a
scientific explanation succeeds by subsuming a phenomenon under a
general law.
Diunduh dari:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_of_science ….. 22/9/2012
PENJELASAN = EXPLANATION
“PENJELASAN = EKSPLANASI” An explanation is a set of
statements constructed to describe a set of facts which clarifies the
causes, context, and consequences of those facts.
This description may establish rules or laws, and may clarify the
existing ones in relation to any objects, or phenomena examined. The
components of an explanation can be implicit, and be interwoven
with one another.
An explanation is often underpinned by an understanding that is
represented by different media such as music, text, and graphics.
Thus, an explanation is subjected to interpretation, and discussion.
In scientific research, explanation is one of the purposes of research,
e.g., exploration and description. Explanation is a way to uncover
new knowledge, and to report relationships among different aspects
of studied phenomena. Explanations have varied explanatory power.
Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explanation ….. 22/9/2012
INQUIRY
“Inquiry” merupakan suatu proses yang
bertujuan untuk menghimpun pengetahuan,
menjawab keraguan, atau menyelesaikan
permasalahan.
A theory of inquiry is an account of the various
types of inquiry and a treatment of the ways that
each type of inquiry achieves its aim.
Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inquiry ….. 22/9/2012
The Process of
Inquiry and
Research.
Diunduh dari:
http://www.accessol
a.com/action/positio
ns/info_studies/html/
research.html
The Process
of Inquiry
and
Research.
Diunduh
dari:
http://www.acce
ssola.com/actio
n/positions/info
_studies/html/re
search.html
METODE ILMIAH
Metode ilmiah adalah teknik-teknik untuk investigasi
fenomena dan mendapatkan pengetahuan baru, untuk
mengoreksi dan mengintegrasikan pengetahuanpengetahuan yang telah ada.
It is based on gathering observable, empirical and
measurable evidence subject to specific principles of
reasoning, the collection of data through observation
and experimentation, and the formulation and testing
of hypotheses.
METODE ILMIAH
Meskipun prosedur-prosedur yang lazim digunakan sangat beragam,
namun ada sifat-sifat khusus yang membedakan “metode ilmiah”
demngan metode non-ilmiah.
Peneliti-peneliti ilmiah mengusulkan “hypothesis” sebagai “penjelasan
sementara” atas fenomena yang dikaji, dan merancang studi-studi
eksperimental untuk menguji hipotesis tersebut.
Tahapan-tahapan ini harus dapat diulangi untuk menguji hasilhasilnya.
Theories that encompass wider domains of inquiry may bind many
hypotheses together in a coherent structure.
This in turn may assist in the formation of new hypotheses, as well as in
placing groups of hypotheses into a broader context of understanding.
METODE ILMIAH
Among other facets shared by the various fields of inquiry is the
conviction that the process must be objective to reduce a biased
interpretation of the results.
Another basic expectation is to document, archive and share all data
and methodology so it is available for careful scrutiny by other
scientists, thereby allowing other researchers the opportunity to verify
results by attempting to reproduce them.
This practice, called "full disclosure", also allows statistical measures
of the reliability of these data to be established.
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
EMPIRIK
Science is based purely around observation and measurement, and the vast majority of
research involves some type of practical experimentation.
Cutting a long story short, Plato believed that all knowledge could be reasoned;
Aristotle that knowledge relied upon empirical observation and measurement.
This does bring up one interesting anomaly. Strictly speaking, the great physicists,
such as Einstein and Stephen Hawking, are not scientists. They generate sweeping and
elegant theories and mathematical models to describe the universe and the very nature
of time, but measure nothing.
In reality, they are mathematicians, occupying their own particular niche, and they
should properly be referred to as theoreticians.
Still, they are still commonly referred to as scientists and do touch upon the scientific
method in that any theory they have can be destroyed by a single scrap of empirical
evidence.
Diunduh dari: http://www.experiment-resources.com/what-is-the-scientific-method.html….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
BERTUMPU PADA DATA
The scientific method uses some type of measurement to analyze results, feeding these findings
back into theories of what we know about the world. There are two major ways of obtaining
data, through measurement and observation. These are generally referred to as quantitative and
qualitative measurements.
Quantitative measurements are generally associated with what are known as ‘hard' sciences,
such as physics, chemistry and astronomy. They can be gained through experimentation or
through observation.
For Example:
At the end of the experiment, 50% of the bacteria in the sample treated with penicillin were left
alive.
The experiment showed that the moon is 384403 km away from the earth.
The pH of the solution was 7.1
Read more: http://www.experiment-resources.com/what-is-the-scientificmethod.html#ixzz27DWjH3q5
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APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
The Scientific Method is Intellectual and
Visionary
Science requires vision, and the ability to observe
the implications of results. Collecting data is part
of the process, and it also needs to be analyzed
and interpreted.
However, the visionary part of science lies in
relating the findings back into the real world.
Even pure sciences, which are studied for their
own sake rather than any practical application,
are visionary and have wider goals.
The process of relating findings to the real world
is known as induction, or inductive reasoning,
and is a way of relating the findings to the
universe around us.
Read more: http://www.experimentresources.com/what-is-the-scientificmethod.html#ixzz27DbMG5r0
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APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
Science Uses Experiments to Test Predictions
This process of induction and generalization allows scientists to make predictions
about how they think that something should behave, and design an experiment to test
it.
This experiment does not always mean setting up rows of test tubes in the lab or
designing surveys. It can also mean taking measurements and observing the natural
world.
Wegener's ideas, whilst denigrated by many scientists, aroused the interest of a few.
They began to go out and look for other evidence that the continents moved around the
Earth.
From Wegener's initial idea of continents floating through the ocean floor, scientists
now understand, through a process of prediction and measurement, the process of
plate tectonics.
The exact processes driving the creation of new crust and the subduction of others are
still not fully understood but, almost 100 years after Wegener's idea, scientists still
build upon his initial work.
Diunduh dari: http://www.experiment-resources.com/what-is-the-scientific-method.html….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
Systematic and Methodical
Scientists are very conservative in how they approach results and they are naturally
very skeptical.
It takes more than one experiment to change the way that they think, however loud the
headlines, and any results must be retested and repeated until a solid body of evidence
is built up. This process ensures that researchers do not make mistakes or purposefully
manipulate evidence.
In Wegener's case, his ideas were not accepted until after his death, when the amount
of evidence supporting continental drift became irrefutable.
This process of changing the current theories, called a paradigm shift, is an integral
part of the scientific method. Most groundbreaking research, such as Einstein's
Relativity or Mendel's Genetics, causes a titanic shift in the prevailing scientific
thought.
Diunduh dari: http://www.experiment-resources.com/what-is-the-scientific-method.html….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
The scientific method has
evolved, over many centuries,
to ensure that scientists make
meaningful discoveries,
founded upon logic and reason
rather than emotion.
The exact process varies
between scientific disciplines,
but they all follow the above
principle of observe - predict test - generalize.
Diunduh dari: http://www.experiment-resources.com/what-is-the-scientific-method.html….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
Metode ilmiah merupakan suatu prosedur (urutan langkah)
yang harus dilakukan untuk melakukan suatu proyek ilmiah
(science project).
Secara umum metode ilmiah meliputi langkah-langkah
berikut:
Observasi Awal
Mengidentifikasi Masalah
Merumuskan atau Menyatakan Hipotesis
Melakukan Eksperimen
Menyimpulkan Hasil Eksperimen
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APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
Setelah topik yang akan diteliti secara ilmiah ditentukan, maka
langkah pertama untuk melakukan riset ilmiah adalah melakukan
observasi awal untuk mengumpulkan informasi tentang segala
sesuatu yang berhubungan dengan topik tersebut melalui
pengalaman, berbagai sumber ilmu pengetahuan, berkonsultasi
dengan ahli yang sesuai.
Gunakan semua referensi: buku, jurnal, majalah, koran, internet,
interview, dll.
Kumpulkan informasi dari ahli: instruktur, peneliti, insinyur, dll.
Lakukan eksplorasi lain yang berhubungan dengan topik.
Diunduh dari: http://alphaomega86.tripod.com/metode_ilmiah.htm ….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
IDENTIFIKASI MASALAH
Permasalahan merupakan pertanyaan ilmiah yang harus dijawab.
Permasalahan dinyatakan dalam pertanyaan terbuka yaitu pertanyaan
dengan jawaban berupa suatu pernyataan, bukan jawaban ya atau
tidak.
Contoh:
Bagaimana cara menyimpan energi surya di rumah?
Batasi permasalahan seperlunya agar tidak terlalu luas.
Pilih permasalahan yang penting dan menarik untuk diteliti.
Pilih permasalahan yang dapat diselesaikan secara eksperimen.
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APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
MERUMUSKAN HIPOTESIS
Hipotesis merupakan suatu ide atau dugaan sementara tentang
penyelesaian masalah yang diajukan dalam proyek ilmiah.
Hipotesis dirumuskan atau dinyatakan sebelum penelitian yang
seksama atas topik proyek ilmiah dilakukan, karenanya kebenaran
hipotesis ini perlu diuji lebih lanjut melalui penelitian yang seksama.
Hal yang perlu diingat, jika menurut hasil pengujian ternyata
hipotesis tidak benar bukan berarti penelitian yang dilakukan salah.
Gunakan pengalaman atau pengamatan lalu sebagai dasar hipotesis
Rumuskan hipotesis sebelum memulai proyek eksperimen
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APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
Melaksanakan Eksperimen
Eksperimen dirancang dan dilakukan untuk menguji hipotesis yang
diajukan.
Ada tiga jenis variabel yang perlu diperhatikan pada eksperimen:
variabel bebas, variabel terikat, dan variabel kontrol.
Varibel bebas merupakan variabel yang dapat diubah secara bebas.
Variabel terikat adalah variabel yang diteliti, yang perubahannya
bergantung pada variabel bebas. Variabel kontrol adalah variabel
yang selama eksperimen dipertahankan tetap.
1. Usahakan hanya satu variabel bebas selama eksperimen.
2. Pertahankan kondisi yang tetap pada variabel-variabel yang
diasumsikan konstan.
3. Lakukan eksperimen berulang kali untuk memvariasi hasil.
4. Catat hasil eksperimen secara lengkap dan seksama.
Diunduh dari: http://alphaomega86.tripod.com/metode_ilmiah.htm ….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
Menyimpulkan Hasil Eksperimen
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Kesimpulan merupakan ringkasan hasil proyek eksperimen dan
pernyataan bagaimana hubungan antara hasil eksperimen dengan
hipotesis. Alasan-alasan untuk hasil eksperimen yang bertentangan
dengan hipotesis termasuk di dalamnya. Jika dapat dilakukan,
kesimpulan dapat diakhiri dengan memberikan pemikiran untuk
penelitian lebih lanjut.
Jika hasil eksperimen tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis:
Jangan diubah hipotesisnya
Jangan diabaikan hasil eksperimen
Berikan alasan yang masuk akal mengapa tidak sesuai
Berikan cara-cara yang mungkin dilakukan selanjutnya untuk
menemukan penyebab ketidaksesuaian
Bila cukup waktu lakukan eksperimen sekali lagi atau susun ulang
eksperimen.
Diunduh dari: http://alphaomega86.tripod.com/metode_ilmiah.htm ….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH :
1. Karya Ilmiah Harus Berdasarkan Fakta
Menulis karya ilmiah harus berdasarkan fakta, bukan hasil
imajinasi atau semacammnya . “Fakta” biasanya berupa data
empiris yang dapat diukur dan dianalisis lebih lanjut.
2. Karya Ilmiah Harus Berdasarkan Pertimbangan Objektif .
Pertimbangan objektif didasarkan pada pertimbangan apa
adanya bukan bersifat subyektif, bebas dari prasangka dan kirakira.
Diunduh dari: http://saefullohlipana.blogspot.com/2012/05/metode-ilmiah.html….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH :
3. Karya Ilmiah Harus Menggunakan Asas Analisis
Maksudnya, karya ilmiah itu harus dapat dianalisis (diuraikan,
dibandingkan, diinterpretasikan). yang artinya karya ilmiah harus
dapat menggambarkan karakteristik , fungsi dan kaitan pmasalahan
satu dg lainnya.
4. Karya Ilmiah Harus Bersifat Kuantitatif – Kualitatif
Pendekatan ilmiah berbeda dengan pendekatan alamiah.
Pendekatan ilmiah sifatnya kuantitatif , sedangkan pendekatan
alamiah biasanya bersifat kualitatif.
Diunduh dari: http://saefullohlipana.blogspot.com/2012/05/metode-ilmiah.html….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH :
5. Karya Ilmiah Menggunakan Logika Deduktif – Hipotetik
Logika deduktif adalah penalaran yang bertitik tolak dari
hal-hal yang sifatnya umum dan sudah memiliki
kebenaran yang pasti baik dari hasil penelitian para pakar
atau dari yang lainnya.
Kebenaran hipotesis harus dibuktikan secara empiris melalui
penelitian lapangan maka disebut bahwa karya ilmiah
tersebut sesuai logika deduktif-hipotetik
Diunduh dari: http://saefullohlipana.blogspot.com/2012/05/metode-ilmiah.html….. 22/9/2012
APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?
KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH :
6. Karya Ilmiah Harus Menggunakan Logika Induktif Generalisasi
Kebenaran hipotesis bersifat rasional, oleh karenanya bersifat
sementara . Untuk memperoleh kebenaran ilmiah masih harus
dibuktikan dengan data empiris hasil penelitian .
Kesimpulan dari data empiris bersifat generalisasi, sedangkan
kesesuaian data empiris dengan pemikiran rasional hipotesis disebut
asas korespondensi.
Kesimpulan yang bersifat generalisasi dari data empiris disebut logika
induktif yang kebenrannya bersifat probabilistik.
Diunduh dari: http://saefullohlipana.blogspot.com/2012/05/metode-ilmiah.html….. 22/9/2012
UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH
There are multiple ways of outlining the basic method
shared by all of the fields of scientific inquiry.
The following examples are typical classifications of the
most important components of the method on which
there is very wide agreement in the scientific community
and among philosophers of science, each of which are
subject only to marginal disagreements about a few very
specific aspects.
METODE ILMIAH MELIBATKAN:
Observation. A constant feature of scientific inquiry, observation
includes both unconditioned observations (prior to any theory) as
well as the observation of the experiment and its results.
Description. Information derived from experiments must be reliable,
i.e., replicable (repeatable), as well as valid (relevant to the inquiry).
Prediction. Information must be valid for observations past, present,
and future of given phenomena, i.e., purported "one shot"
phenomena do not give rise to the capability to predict, nor to the
ability to repeat an experiment.
METODE ILMIAH MELIBATKAN:
Control. Actively and fairly sampling the range of possible
occurrences, whenever possible and proper, as opposed to the passive
acceptance of opportunistic data, is the best way to control or
counterbalance the risk of empirical bias.
Identification of causes. Identification of the causes of a
particular phenomenon to the best achievable extent. For cause-andeffect relationship to be established, the following must be established:
Time-order relationship. The hypothesized causes must precede the
observed effects in time.
Covariation of events. The hypothesized causes must correlate with
observed effects. However, correlations between events or variables are
not necessarily indicative of causation.
Eliminasi alternatif yang layak
This is a gradual process that requires repeated experiments by
multiple researchers who must be able to replicate results in order to
corroborate them.:
Semua hipotesis dan teori pada hakekatnya dapat ditolak
(tidak terbukti).
Thus, there is a point at which there might be a consensus about a
particular hypothesis or theory, yet it must in principle remain
tentative.
As a body of knowledge grows and a particular hypothesis or theory
repeatedly brings predictable results, confidence in the hypothesis or
theory increases.
UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH
Another simplified model sometimes utilized to summarize scientific
method is the "operational":
The essential elements of a scientific method are operations,
observations, models, and a utility function for evaluating models.
Operation - Some action done to the system being investigated
Observation - What happens when the operation is done to the
system
Model - A fact, hypothesis, theory, or the phenomenon itself at a
certain moment
Utility Function - A measure of the usefulness of the model to
explain, predict, and control, and of the cost of use of it
UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH
One of the elements of any scientific utility function is the refutability of the
model.
Another is its simplicity, on the Principle of Parsimony also known as
Occam's Razor.
The following is a more thorough description of the method.
This set of methodological elements and organization of procedures will in
general tend to be more characteristic of natural sciences and experimental
psychology than of disciplines commonly categorized as social sciences.
Among the latter, methods of verification and testing of hypotheses may
involve less stringent mathematical and statistical interpretations of these
elements within the respective disciplines. Nonetheless the cycle of hypothesis,
verification and formulation of new hypotheses will tend to resemble the basic
cycle described below.
UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH
The essential elements of a scientific method are iterations,
recursions, interleavings, and orderings of the following:
1. Characterizations (Kuantifikasi, Observasi dan
Pengukuran)
2. Hypotheses (Penjelasan teoritis, hipotetis atas observasi dan
pengukuran)
3. Predictions (penalaran yang mencakup deduksi logis dari
hipoptesis dan teori)
4. Experiments (Menguji semua hal di atas)
UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH
Imre Lakatos and Thomas Kuhn had done extensive work on the
"theory laden" character of observation.
Kuhn (1961) maintained that the scientist generally has a theory in mind
before designing and undertaking experiments so as to make empirical
observations, and that the "route from theory to measurement can
almost never be traveled backward".
This perspective implies that the way in which theory is tested is
dictated by the nature of the theory itself, which led Kuhn (1961) to
argue that "once it has been adopted by a profession ... no theory is
recognized to be testable by any quantitative tests that it has not
already passed".
UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH
Each element of the scientific method is subject to peer review
for possible mistakes.
These activities do not describe all that scientists do (see below)
but apply mostly to experimental sciences (e.g., physics,
chemistry).
The elements above are often taught in the educational system.
TAHAPAN METODE ILMIAH
The steps of the scientific method are to:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Ask a Question - observation and
description of a phenomenon or
phenomena. Ask a question you are trying
to answer
Do Background Research - some research
on how you think the answer to your
question may be
Construct a Hypothesis - formulate a
hypothesis to explain the phenomena.
Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an
Experiment - performance of experiemental
tests of the predictions by several
independent experimenters and properly
performed experiments.
Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
- what happened in your experiment? Did it
go with or against your hypothesis? What
could you do different next time?
Communicate your results
DIUNDUH DARI:
http://chem105.blogspot.com/2011/01/scientificmethod-activity-1-11211.html ... 21/9/2012
KARAKTERISASI
METODE ILMIAH depends upon increasingly more
sophisticated characterizations of subjects of the investigation.
(The subjects can also be called unsolved problems or the
unknowns, MASALAH PENELITIAN).
For example, Benjamin Franklin correctly characterized St.
Elmo's fire as electrical in nature, but it has taken a long series
of experiments and theory to establish this.
While seeking the pertinent properties of the subjects, this
careful thought may also entail some definitions and
observations; the observations often demand careful
measurements and/or counting.
KARAKTERISASI
The systematic, careful collection of measurements or counts of relevant
quantities is often the critical difference between pseudo-sciences, such as
alchemy, and a science, such as chemistry or biology.
Scientific measurements taken are usually tabulated, graphed, or mapped,
and statistical manipulations, such as correlation and regression, performed
on them.
The measurements might be made in a controlled setting, such as a
laboratory, or made on more or less inaccessible or unmanipulatable objects
such as stars or human populations.
The measurements often require specialized scientific instruments such as
thermometers, spectroscopes, or voltmeters, and the progress of a scientific
field is usually intimately tied to their invention and development.
KETIDAK-PASTIAN
Measurements in scientific work are also usually accompanied by
estimates of their uncertainty.
The uncertainty is often estimated by making repeated measurements of the
desired quantity.
Uncertainties may also be calculated by consideration of the uncertainties of
the individual underlying quantities that are used.
Counts of things, such as the number of people in a nation at a particular
time, may also have an uncertainty due to limitations of the method used.
Counts may only represent a sample of desired quantities, with an
uncertainty that depends upon the sampling method used and the number of
samples taken.
DEFINISI
Measurements demand the use of operational definitions of
relevant quantities; DEFINISI OPERASIONAL.
That is, a scientific quantity is described or defined by how it is
measured, as opposed to some more vague, inexact or
"idealized" definition.
For example, electrical current, measured in amperes, may be
operationally defined in terms of the mass of silver deposited in
a certain time on an electrode in an electrochemical device that
is described in some detail.
DEFINISI OPERASIONAL
The operational definition of a thing often
relies on comparisons with standards:
The operational definition of "mass"
ultimately relies on the use of an artifact, such
as a certain kilogram of platinum-iridium kept
in a laboratory in France.
KUANTITI ILMIAH
The scientific definition of a term sometimes differs
substantially from their natural language usage.
For example, mass and weight overlap in meaning in
common discourse, but have distinct meanings in
mechanics.
Scientific quantities are often characterized by their
units of measure which can later be described in terms of
conventional physical units when communicating the work.
RELATIVITAS
New theories sometimes arise upon realizing that certain
terms had not previously been sufficiently clearly defined.
For example, Albert Einstein's first paper on relativity
begins by defining simultaneity and the means for
determining length.
These ideas were skipped over by Isaac Newton with, "I do
not define time, space, place and motion, as being well known
to all."
Einstein's paper then demonstrates that they (viz., absolute
time and length independent of motion) were
approximations.
Hypothesis
Prof. Dr. Md. Ghulam Murtaza
Khulna University
Khulna, Bangladesh
23 February 2012
Definisi Hipotesis
The word hypothesis is derived form the Greek words:

“hypo” means under

“tithemi” means place
Under known facts of the problem to explain relationship between these
1. ........ is a statement subject to verification
2. ......... a guess but experienced guess based on some facts
3. …....is a hunch, assumption, suspicion, assertion or an idea about a
phenomena, relationship, or situation, the reality of truth of which one
do not know
A researcher calls these assumptions, assertions, statements, or hunches
hypotheses and they become the basis of an inquiry.
In most cases, the hypothesis will be based upon either previous studies or the
researcher’s own or someone else’s observations
Hypothesis is
variable.
a conjectural statement of relationship between two or more
Definisi Hipotesis
 Hypothesis is proposition, condition or principle which is
assumed, perhaps without belief, in order to draw its logical
consequences and by this method to test its accord with facts
which are known or may be determined (Webster’s New
International Dictionary of English).
 A tentative statement about something, the validity of which is
usually unknown (Black, James A & Dean J Champion, Method
and Issues in Social Research, New York: John Wiley & Sons,
Inc, 1976)
 Hypothesis is proposition that is stated is a testable form and
that predicts a particular relationship between two or more
variable. In other words, id we think that a relationship exists,
we first state it is hypothesis and then test hypothesis in the
field (Baily, Kenneth D, Methods of Social Research, 3rd edition,
New York: The Free Press, 1978)
Definisi Hipotesis
• A hypothesis is written in such a way that it can be proven or
disproven by valid and reliable data – in order to obtain these
data that we perform our study (Grinnell, Richard, Jr. Social
Work Research and Evaluation, 3rd edition, Itasca, Illinois, F.E.
Peacock Publishers, 1988)
• A hypothesis may be defined as a tentative theory or
supposition set up and adopted provisionally as a basis of
explaining certain facts or relationships and as a guide in the
further investigation of other facts or relationships (Crisp,
Richard D, Marketing Research, New York: McGraw Hill Book
Co., 1957 )
Karakteristik Hipotesis
1. Proposisi yang bersifat tentatif
2. Validitas tidak diketahui
3. Hubungan spesifik antara dua atau lebih
variabel.
Fungsi Hipotesis
• Bringing clarity to the research problem
• Fungsi-fungsi Hipotesis:
1. Menyediakan / menjadi fokus riset
2. Memperjelas aspek-aspek khusus dari masalah riset
yang akan diteliti
3. Data apa yang harus dikumpulkan dan data apa yang
tidak dikumpulkan
4. Mendukung obyektivitas riset
5. Memformulasi teori
6. Memungkinkan untuk menyimpulkan “apa yang
benar” atau “apa yang salah”
Karakteristik Hipotesis
•
•
•
•
Simple, specific, and contextually clear
Capable of verification
Related to the existing body of knowledge
Operationalisable
Tipologi Hipotesis
Tiga tipe hipotesis:
 Hipotesis kerja = Working hypothesis
 Hipoptesis nol = Null hypothesis
 Hipotesis alternatif = Alternate hypothesis
Hipotesis Kerja
The working or trail hypothesis is provisionally adopted to
explain the relationship between some observed facts for
guiding a researcher in the investigation of a problem.
A Statement constitutes a trail or working hypothesis
(which) is to be tested and conformed, modifies or even
abandoned as the investigation proceeds.
Tipologi Hipotesis
Hipotesis Nol
A null hypothesis is formulated against the working hypothesis; opposes
the statement of the working hypothesis
....it is contrary to the positive statement made in the working hypothesis;
formulated to disprove the contrary of a working hypothesis
When a researcher rejects a null hypothesis, he/she actually proves a
working hypothesis
In statistics, to mean a null hypothesis usually Ho is used. For example,
Ho Q = O
where Q is the property of the population under investigation
O is hypothetical
Tipologi Hipotesis
Hipothesis Alternatif
An alternate hypothesis is formulated when a researcher
totally rejects null hypothesis
He/she develops such a hypothesis with adequate reasons
The notion used to mean alternate hypothesis is H1 Q>O
i.e., Q is greater than O
Contoh Hipotesis
 HIPOTESIS KERJA: Population influences the number of
bank branches in a town
 HIPOTESIS NOL (Ho): Population do not have any
influence on the number of bank branches in a town.
• HIPOTESIS ALTERNATIF (H1): Population has significant
effect on the number of bank branches in a town. A
researcher formulates this hypothesis only after rejecting
the null hypothesis.
PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS
A hypothesis is a suggested explanation of a phenomenon, or
alternately a reasoned proposal suggesting a possible
correlation between or among a set of phenomena.
Normally hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model.
Sometimes, but not always, they can also be formulated as
existential statements, stating that some particular instance of
the phenomenon being studied has some characteristic and
causal explanations, which have the general form of universal
statements, stating that every instance of the phenomenon has a
particular characteristic.
PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS
Scientists are free to use whatever resources they have — their own
creativity, ideas from other fields, induction, Bayesian inference, and so
on — to imagine possible explanations for a phenomenon under study.
Charles Sanders Peirce, borrowing a page from Aristotle (Prior
Analytics, 2.25) described the incipient stages of inquiry, instigated by
the "irritation of doubt" to venture a plausible guess, as abductive
reasoning.
The history of science is filled with stories of scientists claiming a "flash
of inspiration", or a hunch, which then motivated them to look for
evidence to support or refute their idea.
Michael Polanyi made such creativity the centrepiece of his discussion
of methodology.
PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS
Karl Popper, following others, developing and inverting
the views of the Austrian logical positivists, has argued
that a hypothesis must be falsifiable, and that a
proposition or theory cannot be called scientific if it does
not admit the possibility of being shown false.
It must at least in principle be possible to make an
observation that would show the proposition to be false,
even if that observation had not yet been made.
PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS
William Glen observes that
the success of a hypothesis, or its service to science, lies not simply
in its perceived "truth", or power to displace, subsume or reduce a
predecessor idea, but perhaps more in its ability to stimulate the
research that will illuminate … bald suppositions and areas of
vagueness.
In general scientists tend to look for theories that are "elegant" or
"beautiful".
In contrast to the usual English use of these terms, they here refer
to a theory in accordance with the known facts, which is
nevertheless relatively simple and easy to handle.
Occam's Razor serves as a rule of thumb for making these
determinations.
PREDIKSI DARI HIPOTESIS
Hipotesis yang bagus dapat digunakan untuk prediksi,
dengan jalan penalaran, termasuk penalaran deduktif.
It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a
laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon
in nature.
The prediction can also be statistical and only talk
about probabilities.
PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS
It is essential that the outcome be currently unknown.
Only in this case does the eventuation increase the probability that the
hypothesis be true.
If the outcome is already known, it's called a consequence and should
have already been considered while formulating the hypothesis.
If the predictions are not accessible by observation or experience, the
hypothesis is not yet useful for the method, and must wait for others
who might come afterward, and perhaps rekindle its line of reasoning.
For example, a new technology or theory might make the necessary
experiments feasible.
TEORI RELATIVITAS
Einstein's prediction (1907): Light bends in a
gravitational field
Einstein's theory of General Relativity makes several specific
predictions about the observable structure of space-time, such
as a prediction that light bends in a gravitational field and that
the amount of bending depends in a precise way on the strength
of that gravitational field.
Arthur Eddington's observations made during a 1919 solar
eclipse supported General Relativity rather than Newtonian
gravitation.
EKSPERIMEN
Once predictions are made, they can be tested by experiments.
If test results contradict predictions, then the hypotheses are called into
question and explanations may be sought. Sometimes experiments are
conducted incorrectly and are at fault. If the results confirm the
predictions, then the hypotheses are considered likely to be correct but
might still be wrong and are subject to further testing.
Depending on the predictions, the experiments can have different
shapes. It could be a classical experiment in a laboratory setting, a
double-blind study or an archaeological excavation. Even taking a
plane from New York to Paris is an experiment which tests the
aerodynamical hypotheses used for constructing the plane.
EKSPERIMEN
Scientists assume an attitude of openness and accountability on
the part of those conducting an experiment.
Detailed record keeping is essential, to aid in recording and
reporting on the experimental results, and providing evidence
of the effectiveness and integrity of the procedure.
They will also assist in reproducing the experimental results.
This tradition can be seen in the work of Hipparchus (190 BCE
- 120 BCE), when determining a value for the precession of the
Earth over 2100 years ago, and 1000 years before Al-Batani.
EKSPERIMEN
The essence of all good science lies in a process called "the scientific method." The
scientific method uses objective experimentation to predict, verify, or refute, an assertion
made by a theory. Based on the results of the experiment(s), the theory is modified. The
process of predict, verify or refute is repeated, continually testing and modifying the
theory until the theory fits all possible experimental observations. Then the theory is
considered a scientific law.
The diagram above shows a
simplified flow chart of the
scientific method.
One can "enter" the flow chart at
any point in the cycle.
Generally however, one starts with
a theory, a prediction, or an
observation.
Diunduh dari: http://www.tomatosphere.org/teacher-resources/teachers-guide/principal-investigation/scientificmethod.cfm ….. 22/9/2012
EKSPERIMEN
Diunduh dari: http://www.tomatosphere.org/teacher-resources/teachers-guide/principal-investigation/scientificmethod.cfm ….. 22/9/2012
TEORI
A Theory is an explanation for natural events that is based on a
large number of observations.
Its important to realize that theories EXPLAIN what we
observe.
For instance, the Germ Theory explains why we get sick and
why we get infections, in short it uses observation of viruses and
bacteria as well as data from those who get ill to create a theory
on what causes the illness.
Diunduh dari: http://www.biologycorner.com/bio1/scimethod.html ….. 22/9/2012
TEORI
And so you say, isn't that an absolute fact. Duh?
We know there are germs and they make us sick. To a degree, some of
what we know now (with increased technology) is more refined than what
it was 100 years ago.
Did you know that some doctors were laughed at for washing their
hands..it was a ridiculous notion hundreds of years ago to believe that
there were invisible things in the are that would make us sick.
Now, we accept it as common knowledge. However, the germ theory
continues to be refined as we expand our knowledge on what actual
components and parts of a bacteria or virus make us sick and why.
Theories are changeable and expandable, and most importantly, theories
are FALSIFIABLE.
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TEORI
In order to be a valid scientific theory there must be some way that an
observation or experiment could prove it to be false.
For example, Einstein's theory of Relativity made predictions about the
results of experiments.
These experiments could have produced results that contradicted Einstein,
so the theory was (and still is) falsifiable.
In contrast, the theory that ``the moon is populated by little green men
who can read our minds and will hide whenever anyone on Earth looks for
them, and will flee into deep space whenever a spacecraft comes near'' is
not falsifiable: these green men are designed so that no one can ever see
them.
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TEORI
On the other hand, the theory that there are no little green men
on the moon is scientific: you can disprove it by catching one.
Similar arguments apply to abominable snow-persons, UFOs
and the Loch Ness Monster(s?).
The three important points of a scientific theory:
1. Theories must explain a wide range of observations
2. Theories must be falsifiable
3. Theories can be changed if new evidence presents itself
Diunduh dari: http://www.biologycorner.com/bio1/scimethod.html ….. 22/9/2012
PROSES ILMIAH
Scientific Process
1. Observations
2. Questions
3. Hypothesis
(prediction)
4. Experimentation
5. Conclusions
Diunduh dari: http://www.biologycorner.com/bio1/scimethod.html ….. 22/9/2012
HIPOPTESIS
Hypothesis - a testable statement, can be shown to be true or false by
experimenting or observation.
Contoh Hipotesis yang Baik
1. Plants will grow taller when given Miracle Grow.
2. Girls will score higher on math tests than boys.
3. Hermit crabs choose colorful shells over drab shells.
Contoh Hipotesis yang Buruk:
1. Plants will grow better when given Miracle Grow.
2. Girls are smarter than boys.
3. Hermit crabs like colorful shells.
PREDIKSI
Following the formation of a hypothesis, a research can
then make a prediction.
A prediction is an expected outcome.
If the statement is true, then you would expect a certain
result.
A hypothesis is then tested by experimentation - a
planned procedure designed to test the hypothesis.
EVALUASI & ITERASI
Testing and improvement
The scientific process is iterative.
At any stage it is possible that some consideration will lead the scientist
to repeat an earlier part of the process.
Failure to develop an interesting hypothesis may lead a scientist to redefine the subject they are considering.
Failure of a hypothesis to produce interesting and testable predictions
may lead to reconsideration of the hypothesis or of the definition of the
subject.
Failure of the experiment to produce interesting results may lead the
scientist to reconsidering the experimental method, the hypothesis or
the definition of the subject.
EVALUASI & ITERASI
Other scientists may start their own research and enter the
process at any stage.
They might adopt the characterization and formulate their
own hypothesis, or they might adopt the hypothesis and
deduce their own predictions.
Often the experiment is not done by the person who made
the prediction and the characterization is based on
experiments done by someone else.
Published results of experiments can also serve as a
hypothesis predicting their own reproducibility.
KONFIRMASI
Science is a social enterprise, and scientific work tends to be accepted by the
community when it has been confirmed.
Crucially, experimental and theoretical results must be reproduced by others
within the science community.
Researchers have given their lives for this vision; Georg Wilhelm Richmann was
killed by lightning (1753) when attempting to replicate the 1752 kite-flying
experiment of Benjamin Franklin.
To protect against bad science and fraudulent data, government research
granting agencies like NSF and science journals like Nature and Science have a
policy that researchers must archive their data and methods so other researchers
can access it, test the data and methods and build on the research that has gone
before.
MODEL-MODEL SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY
MODEL KLASIK
The classical model of scientific inquiry derives from
Aristotle , who distinguished the forms of approximate
and exact reasoning, set out the threefold scheme of
abductive, deductive, and inductive inference, and also
treated the compound forms such as reasoning by
analogy.
MODEL PRAGMATIS
Pragmatic model: Pragmatic theory of truth
Charles Peirce considered scientific inquiry to be a species of the genus
inquiry, which he defined as any means of fixing belief, that is, any
means of arriving at a settled opinion on a matter in question.
He observed that inquiry in general begins with a state of uncertainty
and moves toward a state of certainty, sufficient at least to terminate
the inquiry for the time being. He graded the prevalent forms of
inquiry according to their evident success in achieving their common
objective, scoring scientific inquiry at the high end of this scale.
MODEL PRAGMATIS
At the low end he placed what he called the method of
tenacity, a die-hard attempt to deny uncertainty and fixate
on a favored belief.
Next in line he placed the method of authority, a
determined attempt to conform to a chosen source of
ready-made beliefs.
After that he placed what might be called the method of
congruity, also called the a priori, the dilettante, or the
what is agreeable to reason method.
MODEL PRAGMATIS
Peirce observed the fact of human nature that almost
everybody uses almost all of these methods at one time or
another, and that even scientists, being human, use the
method of authority far more than they like to admit.
But what recommends the specifically scientific method of
inquiry above all others is the fact that it is deliberately
designed to arrive at the ultimately most secure beliefs,
upon which the most successful actions can be based.
PENDEKATAN KOMPUTASIONAL
Many subspecialties of applied logic and computer science, to name a
few, artificial intelligence, machine learning, computational learning
theory, inferential statistics, and knowledge representation, are
concerned with setting out computational, logical, and statistical
frameworks for the various types of inference involved in scientific
inquiry, in particular, hypothesis formation, logical deduction, and
empirical testing.
Some of these applications draw on measures of complexity from
algorithmic information theory to guide the making of predictions from
prior distributions of experience, for example, see the complexity
measure called the speed prior from which a computable strategy for
optimal inductive reasoning can be derived.
FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS
While the philosophy of science has limited direct impact on day-to-day
scientific practice, it plays a vital role in justifying and defending the
scientific approach. Philosophy of science looks at the underpinning
logic of the scientific method, at what separates science from nonscience,and the ethic that is implicit in science.
We find ourselves in a world that is not directly understandable. We
find that we sometimes disagree with others as to the facts of the things
we see in the world around us, and we find that there are things in the
world that are at odds with our present understanding.
FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS
The scientific method attempts to provide a way in which we can
reach agreement and understanding.
A "perfect" scientific method might work in such a way that
rational application of the method would always result in
agreement and understanding; a perfect method would arguably
be algorithmic, and so not leave any room for rational agents to
disagree.
As with all philosophical topics, the search has been neither
straightforward nor simple.
Logical Positivist, empiricist, falsificationist, and other theories
have claimed to give a definitive account of the logic of science,
but each has in turn been criticized.
FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS
Thomas Samuel Kuhn examined the history of science in his The
Structure of Scientific Revolutions, and found that the actual
method used by scientists differed dramatically from the thenespoused method.
Paul Feyerabend similarly examined the history of science, and
was led to deny that science is genuinely a methodological process.
In his book Against Method he argues that scientific progress is not
the result of applying any particular method. In essence, he says
that "anything goes", by which he meant that for any specific
methodology or norm of science, successful science has been done
in violation of it.
FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS
Criticisms such as his led to the strong programme, a radical
approach to the sociology of science.
In his 1958 book, Personal Knowledge, chemist and philosopher
Michael Polanyi (1891-1976) criticized the common view that the
scientific method is purely objective and generates objective
knowledge. Polanyi cast this view as a misunderstanding of the
scientific method and of the nature of scientific inquiry, generally.
He argued that scientists do and must follow personal passions in
appraising facts and in determining which scientific questions to
investigate.
He concluded that a structure of liberty is essential for the
advancement of science - that the freedom to pursue science for its
own sake is a prerequisite for the production of knowledge
through peer review and the scientific method.
FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS
The postmodernist critiques of science have themselves been
the subject of intense controversy and heated dialogue.
This ongoing debate, known as the science wars, is the result
of the conflicting values and assumptions held by the
postmodernist and realist camps.
Whereas postmodernists assert that scientific knowledge is
simply another discourse and not representative of any form
of fundamental truth, realists in the scientific community
maintain that scientific knowledge does reveal real and
fundamental truths about reality.
Many books have been written by scientists which take on this
problem and challenge the assertions of the postmodernists while
defending science as a legitimate method of deriving truth
KOMUNIKASI, KOMUNITAS & BUDAYA
Frequently the scientific method is not employed by a
single person, but by several people cooperating
directly or indirectly.
Such cooperation can be regarded as one of the defining
elements of a scientific community.
Various techniques have been developed to ensure the
integrity of the scientific method within such an
environment.
EVALUASI KELOMPOK PAKAR
Scientific journals use a process of peer review, in which
scientists' manuscripts are submitted by editors of scientific
journals to (usually one to three) fellow (usually anonymous)
scientists familiar with the field for evaluation.
The referees may or may not recommend publication,
publication with suggested modifications, or, sometimes,
publication in another journal.
This serves to keep the scientific literature free of unscientific or
crackpot work, helps to cut down on obvious errors, and
generally otherwise improve the quality of the scientific
literature.
EVALUASI KELOMPOK PAKAR
Work announced in the popular press before going through this
process is generally frowned upon.
Sometimes peer review inhibits the circulation of unorthodox
work, and at other times may be too permissive.
The peer review process is not always successful, but has been
very widely adopted by the scientific community.
DOKUMENTASI & REPLIKASI
Sometimes experimenters may make systematic errors during
their experiments, unconsciously veer from the scientific
method (Pathological science) for various reasons, or (in rare
cases) deliberately falsify their results.
Consequently, it is a common practice for other scientists to
attempt to repeat the experiments in order to duplicate the
results, thus further validating the hypothesis.
PENG - ARSIP - AN
As a result, researchers are expected to practice scientific data
archiving in compliance with the policies of government funding
agencies and scientific journals.
Detailed records of their experimental procedures, raw data, statistical
analyses and source code are preserved in order to provide evidence of
the effectiveness and integrity of the procedure and assist in
reproduction.
These procedural records may also assist in the conception of new
experiments to test the hypothesis, and may prove useful to engineers
who might examine the potential practical applications of a discovery.
KETERBATASAN
Note that it is not possible for a scientist to record everything that
took place in an experiment.
He must select the facts he believes to be relevant to the experiment
and report them.
This may lead, unavoidably, to problems later if some supposedly
irrelevant feature is questioned.
For example, Heinrich Hertz did not report the size of the room used to test
Maxwell's equations, which later turned out to account for a small deviation
in the results.
The problem is that parts of the theory itself need to be assumed in
order to select and report the experimental conditions. The
observations are hence sometimes described as being 'theory-laden'.
DIMENSI PRAKTIS
The primary constraints on contemporary western science are:
1. Publication, i.e. Peer review
2. Resources (mostly funding)
It has not always been like this: in the old days of the
"gentleman scientist" funding (and to a lesser extent
publication) were far weaker constraints.
Both of these constraints indirectly bring in a scientific method
— work that too obviously violates the constraints will be
difficult to publish and difficult to get funded.
METODE ILMIAH
Journals do not require submitted papers to conform to anything more
specific than "good scientific practice" and this is mostly enforced by
peer review.
Originality, importance and interest are more important - see for
example the author guidelines for Nature.
Criticisms (see Critical theory) of these restraints are that they are so
nebulous in definition (e.g. "good scientific practice") and open to
ideological, or even political, manipulation apart from a rigorous
practice of a scientific method, that they often serve to censor rather
than promote scientific discovery.
SEJARAH METODE ILMIAH
Perkembangan metode ilmiah tidak dapat dipisahkan dari
sejarah ilmu pengetahuan.
Dokumen-dokumen Mesir kuno, seperti “papyri”,
menjelaskan metode-metode diagnosis medis.
Dalam budaya Yunani kuno, dijelaskan tentang metode
empirisme.
The experimental scientific method was developed by Muslim
scientists, who introduced the use of experiments to distinguish
between competing scientific theories set within a generally
empirical orientation, which emerged with Alhazen's optical
experiments in his Book of Optics.
SEJARAH METODE ILMIAH
The fundamental tenets of the modern scientific method
crystallized no later than the rise of the modern physical
sciences, in the 17th and 18th centuries.
In his work Novum Organum (1620) — a reference to Aristotle's
Organon — Francis Bacon outlined a new system of logic to
improve upon the old philosophical process of syllogism.
Then, in 1637, René Descartes established the framework for a
scientific method's guiding principles in his treatise, Discourse
on Method.
Karya tulis ini dianggap sangat kritis dalam sejartah
perkembangan metode ilmiah.
Sejarah METODE ILMIAH
Pada akhikr abad 19, Charles Sanders Peirce mengusulkan suatu
skema, yang sangat berpengaruh terhadap perkembangan
metode ilmiah yang ada saat ini.
Pertama, dalam konteks yang lebih luas "How to Make Our
Ideas Clear" (1878) , Peirce menjelaskan suatu metode yang
dapat diverifikasi secara obyektif untuk menguji kebenaran
pengetahuan dengan cara yang bertumpu pada DEDUKSI dan
INDUKSI.
He thus placed induction and deduction in a complementary
rather than competitive context (the latter of which had been the
primary trend at least since David Hume, who wrote in the midto-late 18th century).
Sejarah METODE ILMIAH
Ke dua, Peirce meletakkan landasan untuk pengujian
hipotesis yang masih berlaku terus hingga sekarang.
Dengan mengekstraks teori tentang “inquiry” dari
bahan-bahan mentahnya dalam logika klasik, ia
menyempurnakannya sejalan dengan perkembangan
awal dari logika simbolik untuk mengarahkan
“problematik” pada penalaran ilmiah.
Peirce menelaah dan mengartikulasikan tiga metode
penalaran yaitu, inferensi abductive, deductive, dan
inductive.
Sejarah METODE ILMIAH
Ke tiga, Peirce memainkan peran utama dalam perkembangan
logika simbolik - memang ini merupakan spesialisasinya yang
utama.
Karl Popper (1902–1994), mulai pada 1930 dan terus berkembang
setelah Perang Dunia II, berpendapat bahwa suatu hipotesis harus
“falsifiable” dan, sesuai dnegan Peirce dan pakar lainnya, bahwa
pengetahuan berkembang dnegan baik dengan menggunakan
penalaran deduktif sebagai tujuan utamanya, dikenal sebagai “critical
rationalism”.
His astute formulations of logical procedure helped to rein in excessive
use of inductive speculation upon inductive speculation, and also
strengthened the conceptual foundation for today's peer review
procedures.