Transcript Slide 1

The winter storm 2005 as an example of an
extreme event – a case study for ASTRA
Lasse Peltonen
Centre for urban and regional studies
Helsinki University of Technology
ASTRA Meeting,
17-20 May 2006
Klaipeda, Lithuania
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The background of the winter storm study
The storm event in January 2005
Impacts – sectoral examples
Responses
Lessons
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Purpose of the
winter storm case study
To make climate change concrete
Look at climate change adaptation from present-day
climate variability perspective (instead of future climate
according to models)
To engage ASTRA project partners in a shared task
Demonstrate both shared and specific challenges of CC
adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region: one storm leads to
different outcomes in different regional contexts
Use the case study for learning: what lessons can we
draw from the event?
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Method
A questionnaire to the ASTRA network on countryand region-specific impacts of the storm
Questionnaire complemened by other existing
sources (reports, inquiries to experts and
authorities)
Valuable input and in-depth studies by ASTRA
project partners - Thank you!
Web-based demonstration will be developed
based on the results
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Gudrun a.k.a. Erwin
The winter storm in January 2005 was an extreme
weather event that affected almost all of the participating
countries around the Baltic sea.
The storm was exceptional (extent, damages) for the
Baltic Sea Region: fiercest event since 1969
Still, it was less damaging than the 1999 storms Lothar &
Martin in western Europe
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Gudrun (Erwin)
storm path 8.-11.1.2005
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Major storms track
and land cover 1998-2002
Lähde:Saurí ym. 2003
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Storm risk
Storm risk patterns in Europe
mapped by the ESPON 1.3.1
Hazards project
Exposure: Storm paths
Damage potential: Population
density & assets at risk
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Was the winter storm
caused by climate change?
”It would certainly be exaggerating to
develop horror scenarios for Europe as a
result of climate change […] However,
there is no doubt that in a warmer climate
it will be necessary to expect much more
frequent and more intensive windstorm
and severe storm events”
Münich Re ”Winter Storms in Europe (II): Analysis of 1999 losses and loss potentials”
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Changing storm frequency
Lithuania has met with ten major storms in the last 50
years
 each of these storms have been considered a once in
a hundred years –event
Expectation: 1/100 yrs return period (1% yearly risk)
Recent reality: 1/5 yrs return period (20% yearly risk)
(Source: Eurosion –project 2000)
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Impacts of the storm
17 people died
hundreds of thousands people affected
Damages estimated at EUR 2.5 billion
Wide range of impacts in the BSR countries
Sectors most affected:
Natural resources (esp. forestry)
Energy production and distribution
Transport and Communications
Spatial development & infrastructure
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Turku, Finland
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Pärnu, Estonia
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Forest damages in Sweden
Sweden heavily
affected
75 Million cubic
metres of forest
damaged
Equal to the
normal annual
timber harvest
Are monoculture
forests resilient?
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Forestry loss categories
Additional cost of harvesting the fallen trees
Revenues lost as the price for timber falls as markets are
overloaded
Reforestation of totally damaged areas
Costs of restoring the infrastructure related to forest
management
Costs of aero surveilance and inventory
Source: Estonian WSS study (Kont et al. 2006)
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Energy: power cuts
Estonia: Interruption of electricity supplies to 5,500
electricity stations which make up 30% of the country's
network
Latvia: the storm affected 60 % of the country’s territory,
cutting 40% population from power: 23-day emergency
Lithuania: network came close to collapse: 1,4 million
people affected
Sweden: some 730 000 people affected. total number of
power-cut days were counted to add up to 2,3 million
Finland: Loviisa nuclear power plant closure threatened
Denmark: wind power turbines closed down
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1,
30
5
87
6
62
9
January 26
January 27
January 28
99
46
17
January 31
February 1
February 2
January 30
January 29
79
7
1,
2,
50
8
25
0
3,
January 25
January 24
January 23
January 22
January 21
84
7
3,
4,
32
1
January 19
January 20
5,
19
1
January 18
6,
22
9
0
January 17
January 16
January 15
12
,3
42
,2
42
96
20
,1
50,000
January 14
January 13
January 12
January 11
59
71
100,000
71
,4
86
4
16
7,
200,000
January 10
January 9
January 8
39
1,
79
3
Restoring power (e.g. Latvia)
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
150,000
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Coastal erosion
Shoreline affected throughout
the southern coasts of the
study area
Different sensitivities of
different locations (sediment)
Effects most severe in Latvia
Increased water level and
wave action together affected
the coastlines of Germany,
Poland and Lithuania, too.
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Effects of the Jan 2005 winter storm
on the Baltic Sea
Map: Johanna Roto and Simo Haanpää /YTK
forest damages (mio
m 3)
areas of reported
coastal erosion
sediments lost (mio m3)
(insured) economic losses
(10 mio euros)
people without electricity
(100 000 residents)
extensive forest
damages
coasts affected by
storm surge
kauaksi
Suurtulvatyöryhmän
esittämästä tasosta.
1
affected areas as reported by
Carpenter (2005)
trajectory of the cyclone centre
(Suursaar et.al. 2006)
areas reported with power cuts
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IMPORTANT!
This map shows
only approximate
locations of the
effects listed here!
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The costs
Total costs estimated at 2,42 billion euros
of which 1,6 billion euros was insured
the 40th costliest insurance loss since 1970
(Source Swiss Re 2006)
Remember: not everything is reflected in the costs!
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EUSF assistance
European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) is a special fund
created in 2002 to assist EU Member states recover
form major disasters
EUSF provided ca. 93 M€ in assistance
Sweden received 82 M€ (total damages at 2 300 M€)
Latvia received 9,5 M€ (damages 192 M€)
Estonia’s share was 1,3 M€ (damages 48 M€)
Lithuania received € 400 000 (total damages 15 M€)
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Responses to the storm
Early warning systems improvements
Improvements in communication systems initiated (e.g.
Swedish forestry agency web pages for forest owners)
Technical preparedness (e.g. power generators for
important sectors in Latvia)
Monitoring activities (e.g. Lithuanian coast)
Institutional initiatives (e.g. Espoo flood group,, Latvian
Ministry of Interior)
regulatory initiatives (e.g. Stockholm county Electricity
supply rules for entreprises)
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Institutional response:
example from Latvia
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Latvian Ministry of Interior initiative:
Improve the coordination between state institutions and
local municipalities, declare responsibilities of each
institution
Budget planning to reserve funding to be available in
the case of storms, flooding and similar hazards
Develop a system of public training and education in the
area of civil defence
Increase applied research to develop the optimal
system of hazard mitigation have been underlined.
Improve work in hazard identification within the Latvian
Environment, Geology and Meteorology Agency.
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Conclusion:
Before the next storm, let’s…
Engage in planned adaptation: increase adaptive capacity, not only
emergency & rescue operations
Improve early warning systems and immediate response capacity
(rescue services)
Improve communication channels between officials and towards
the public
Co-operate on sectoral strategies: both public & private sectors
Improve documentation of storm effects: more uniform, publicly
available data would enhance analysis and learning
Initiate institutional measures to address resources and
responsibilities of institution (state vs. municipality vs. private
sector)
Raise awareness on changing return periods for storms
Study International & EU-level responses in the BSR
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Thank you for your attention!
Helsinki University of Technology (TKK)
Centre for Urban and Regional Studies (YTK)
ASTRA team
Lasse Peltonen, Simo Haanpää, Samuli Lehtonen
Contact:
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
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