Transcript Nuclear Power Plants Emission-Free Stability in a Volatile

Nuclear Power Plants
Emission-Free Stability
in a Volatile Market
LSU Energy Conference
October 21-22, 2004
Adrian Heymer, NEI, 202-739-8094, [email protected]
NEI
[Regulatory
Yucca Mtn
Fuel
ROP, …]
Nuclear
Generation
Government
[Congress &
Affairs
Administration]
NEI
Corporate
Services
[Member
Relations,
State,
Local, ..]
[Policy,
Environmental
IT, HR, Legal, Exec]
External
Relations
Communications
[Media
& PR]
Nuclear Generation
• Status of industry
– Historical operating performance
• Benefits
• New plants
Nuclear Power Plants
Current Status
• 103 Operating Units
– One under major refurbishment
– Average capacity factor ~ 90% over last 4 years
• 20% of US electricity generation
• 70% of US emission-free generation
– Wind 1%; Solar 0.1%
• Eliminates ~700 million tons/year of
Greenhouse gases
Air Quality
CO2 Emissions Eliminated
800
694
Million Short Tons
700
600
500
400
300
234
200
100
12.1
9.5
0.5
Geothermal
Wind
Solar
0
Nuclear
Source EIA
Hydro
Decade of Safety &
Economic Improvement
Relative Cost
Risk (CDF)
Capacity Factor
100
95
90
Relative Cost
90
Capacity
Factor
80
85
70
Relative Risk
60
80
50
75
40
70
30
20
65
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
Year
Based on UDI, DOE & NUS Data plus info. from ERIN Eng & EPRI
99
00
01
'02
'03
U.S. Nuclear Industry
Capacity Factors by Quartile
(3-year rolling average for 103 units)
100%
97.1%
95.8% 96.5%
MDC Net Capacity Factor
92.2%
93.6% 92.9%
88.7%
90%
90.1% 89.9%
85.8%
82.1%
82.6%
80%
70%
60%
1st Quartile
2nd Quartile
1999-2001
Source: UDI/NRC - Updated 05/04
2000-2002
3rd Quartile
2001-2003
4th Quartile
Number of Unusual Events Reported to NRC
(1989-2003)
200 197
180
160
140
120
170
151
135
103
100
80
60
40
92
66 63
40
26 34
20
0
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
18 13 14
33
2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: SCIENTECH - Updated 06/04
Note: A Notification of Unusual Event for power and non-power reactor licensees is a condition involving
potential degradation of the level of plant safety that does not represent an immediate threat to public health
and safety.
Nearly All Nuclear Plants
Will Renew Their Licenses
35 have
26
Granted
Not Announced
Intention
24 intend
to renew
24
Intend to Renew
18 Under
NRC Review
License Renewal Status Mar 2004
Workforce Issues
• 50% of workforce will retire in the next decade
– Knowledge retention a major issue
• Shortages in engineers & health physics
– Hiring now to ensure knowledge and experience is
transferred before 2015
• Major concern in shortages of skilled trades
– Health physics technicians, I&C, welders
• National program with Dept. of Labor, unions,
schools, universities & community colleges to
ensure sufficient skilled workers are available
Benefits of Nuclear Power
•
•
•
•
Proven, reliable, low-cost supplier of electricity
Stable fuel cost
Improves the environment
Economic benefits – jobs & economy
– Each nuclear plant
• Adds over $500 million/year to the economy
• Employs ~ 500 – 1500, with an equivalent number of indirect
jobs
• Waste product is controlled, stored, monitored,
protected and regulated
US Electricity Fuel Costs (1981-2003)
2003 cents per kilowatt-hour
12.0
10.0
Nuclear 0.44
Coal 1.35
Gas 5.18
Oil 4.82
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
0.0
Source: FERC/EUCG – Updated 9/04
Price Stability
Natural Gas Prices
$10.00
$9.00
Jan-2001
$9.13
Mar-2003
$8.06
$8.00
$/MMBtu
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
04
nJa
3
l-0
Ju
03
nJa
2
l-0
Ju
02
nJa
1
l-0
Ju
01
nJa
0
l-0
Ju
00
nJa
9
l-9
Ju
99
nJa
8
l-9
Ju
98
nJa
7
l-9
Ju
97
nJa
6
l-9
Ju
96
nJa
5
l-9
Ju
95
nJa
Reduce US Dependency on
Foreign Suppliers
• 1,000MW capacity combined cycle plant
operating at 90% capacity factor
• Natural gas fired ~ 77 billion cu.ft/yr.
• Oil fired ~ 12 million barrels/yr
• By 2015 10% - 15% of US natural gas supplies
will be from non-North American sources
• Nuclear can help stabilize natural gas demand,
lower costs, improve price predictability, and
reduce dependency on foreign suppliers
Environmental Benefits
• Nuclear generators eliminate Greenhouse
gas generation
• Existence of a nuclear plant assists in siting
industrial facilities (environmental cap &
trade)
– Eases burden of siting fossil fueled plants
• Assists in maintaining a balanced & diversified
generating portfolio
The Hydrogen Economy
& Nuclear
• Potential for new fuel system
– Canadian & Japanese R&D using nuclear technology
– Need for US pilot projects (using existing nuclear
plants) to test, validate process & infrastructure
– Build foundation for launching advanced reactor
hydrogen production based on non-proliferation designs
• Cannot develop a hydrogen economy without
nuclear and meet cost & environmental metrics
using natural gas
The Need for New Nuclear
Generation
• US needs 300,000+MW of new generation by
2025
– Baseload needed after 2010 – clean coal & nuclear
• Increased environmental controls raise siting and
cost problems for fossil fuel plants
• US industry needs low cost energy to sustain
global competitiveness
– A diverse and balanced generating portfolio
– Base-load generation -- Non/low-emission
– Nuclear lowest cost base-load generating option
New Nuclear Plants?
• None ordered for 30 years
• Reasons
– Until mid ‘90s an anemic operating record
– Unpredictable licensing process
– Design/Construct-As-You-Go approach
• Unreliable and prolonged construction
Licensing Problems Being
Addressed
• 1989 – 10 CFR Part 52 introduced
• Introduced a combined construction permit &
operating license (COL)
• Resolves issues and contentions earlier
• Provides more information earlier
• Provides for more opportunity for comment &
requires a more disciplined process
• Introduced ITAAC (Inspections, Tests, Analyses
and Acceptance Criteria)
• Need for increased planning and project discipline
Financing New Nuclear Plants
• Significant changes in electricity industry since 1970s
– Many companies not operating in cost-of-service
• Wall Street nervous over new, unproven licensing process
• Large capital projects diminish financial performance
metrics – earnings per share, etc
• Innovative approaches to financing large capital projects
– Consortium approach
– Public-Private financial structure for large projects that support
essential national infrastructure
– Loan guarantees, accelerated depreciation, tax credits,…
New Plant Status
• Four designs approved – Six in pipeline
• Three Early Site Permits under review -- 2006
• Three consortia ready to test new COL process,
prior to formal application
– 16 companies involved
– Developing trial license applications
• Work to complete ~ 2007-8
– Decisions to order in 2007-8
– Start construction 2009-2010
New Nuclear Plants?
• Yes, if:
– Prove new licensing process -- predictable & stable
– Establish a financial structure for financing large capital
projects that benefit national and State infrastructure
– Nation gets serious about environment
– Certainty on spent fuel disposal
• Energy costs, the economy & environmental
issues will drive the need for new nuclear plants
Going Forward from 2005
Nuclear power plants provide safe,
reliable, low-cost electricity
Stable cash flow
Hedge against volatility in
natural gas price and supply
Safeguard against escalating
environmental requirements
Environmental
Value
Forward
Price Stability
Low Cost
Safe and
Reliable