Transcript Slide 1

BTRE Transport Colloquium
Canberra 13-14 June 2007
Cars, Trucks, Planes:
What will drive them in the future?
Headlines: (1)
• Biggest increase in Australia’s
emissions since 1990 is private
transport
– Increased 29% since 1990
Headlines: (2)
• Public transport in crisis
– “Transport congestion choking Melbourne” -- The Age
– “Fuel price drives commuters onto buses and trains”
-- SMH
• What do these problems have in common?
Source
http://www.tycoflowcontrol.com.au/industries/oil_&_gas__ch
emical
Government Report :
Is the World Running Out of Oil
(2005)
ABARE Projection to 2030 – (2005)
Energy Trade Deficit
>$5 Bn last year
45%
Source: Abare: Australian energy: national & state projections to 2029-30
Katrina:
1836 deaths
$100 billion damage
30 oil platforms
9 oil refineries
Oil consumption
Consumption
Consumption
Litres
Barrels/day
Per person
Per day
India
2,100,000
0.24
China
6,700,000
0.8
800,000
6.3
USA
20,000,000
11.3
World
77,000,000
1.8
Country
Australia
Sources of emissions - Australia
Contribution to total net CO2e emissions by sector (Kyoto accounting), 2003
60
50
14.5%
per cent (%)
40
30
20
10
0
Stationary
Energy
Transport
Fugitive
Emissions
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture
Land Use, Land
Use Change and
Forestry
Waste
Note: USA transport emissions are 28% of total USA emissions. California 58%
Greenhouse gas emissions
Australian transport
GHG must not be confused with Air Quality!
Air quality is an issue in urban areas
(particulate carbon, mostly from diesel)
GHG emissions are a national/global issue
Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) also need to be considered.
Change in emissions profile
Why the increase in GHG for cars?
2NO
2NO2
N2 + O2
N2 + 2O2
N2O
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
is 310 times as potent
as carbon dioxide
And there’s a second reason!
Engines have improved in
fuel efficiency 20% over
the past 20years, However
this has been offset by
growth in vehicle size
Road Vehicles Australia
Passenger Vehicle Fuel type
10000000
9000000
8853925
Transport Fuel Mix
25000
19962
8000000
20000
7000000
52%
6000000
14461
15000
5000000
4000000
37%
10000
3000000
2000000
1000000
198615 152912
4253
5000
784
11%
0
0
Petrol Diesel
2002
LPG
Other
Petrol
ADO
2003/04
LPG
The Technology
Progression for
Australia?
Oil based transport
system
Hydrogen based transport
system
Biofuels from current agriculture
Ethanol
If we used all the crops (sugar, molasses, wheat, coarse
grain) suitable for making ethanol and converted them to
fuel it would only replace 75% of our petrol.
(If we stopped exporting grain we could replace 25% of our petrol)
Biodiesel
If we used all the crops (canola, cottonseed and others)
suitable for making diesel and converted them to fuel we
could replace only 10% of our diesel usage.
Conclusions:
Ethanol could support E10 for most of Australia
Urgent research is needed into next-generation biofuel technologies.
Side effects of biofuels
The Tortilla Protest – Mexico City, February 21 2007
comparison of ethanol vs ULP
-
LP
Source: Tim Grant
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Sustainability - GHG emissions across fuel types
in a typical ‘family sedan’
0.35
Tailpipe
Upstream
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Room for improvement
In suburban cycle 87% energy lost versus 13% converted to motion
Aero 3%
Drivetrain 6%
Accessory 2%
13% Motion
(aero, braking & rolling)
Idle 17%
Rolling 4%
Braking 6%
Engine 62%
• Automobiles are becoming
increasingly electrified
• There is a strong demand for more
energy storage on board the vehicle.
• Much research into high-tech batteries
In partnership with Holden the
ECOmmodore, a parallel
hybrid vehicle.
With aXcess Australia, a
series hybrid vehicle.
CSIRO’s Battery Breakthrough
60 volt battery pack
150 volt Supercapacitor
The UltraBattery
An All-Electric Vehicle
Electric
Motor
Controller
Charger
Storage
Device
240V AC
EV Performance
0-30 mph: 1.35s
0-60 mph: 3.07s in
117 ft
0-100 mph: 6.87s
0-100-0 mph 11.2s
www.wrightspeed.com
Finally, the Hydrogen Powered
Car
Electric
motor
Fuel Cell
Hydrogen
The Future?
•
Expect more pressure to reduce emissions
•
Simplest ways to reduce emissions: –
–
–
–
Reduce travel (particularly in cities)
Reduce vehicle size where possible
Improve traffic flows
improve fuel economy of vehicles
•
Expect more pressure to reduce emissions
•
Expect more technological improvements in
engines.
•
Hybrids save fuel (and emissions)
– but mostly in the city
(short journeys and stop-start driving)
The easiest ways to reduce emissions are to reduce travel,
reduce vehicle size, then reduce congestion.
Could we achieve substantial
emission reductions?
1970
Road
deaths
3,798
Number of
vehicles
3.74 million
Could we achieve substantial
emission reductions?
1970
2006
% Change
Road
deaths
3,798
1605
-58%
Number of
vehicles
3.74 million
13.49 million
+260%
Could we achieve substantial
emission reductions?
1970
2006
% Change
Road
deaths
3,798
1605
-58%
Number of
vehicles
3.74 million
13.49 million
+260%
Death rate
Per
100,000
101.5
11.9
-89%
89% reduction in 36 years!
How did we do it?
– Public awareness of the problem
– Government response
•
•
•
•
•
Determined planning
Regulations
Driving
Road management
Vehicle technology
– Technology
And at CSIRO we’re working on it!