Transcript Nuclear Weapons in Future and the Road to Abolition

Nuclear Weapons in Future
and the
Road to Abolition
Jasjit Singh
Director,
Centre for Strategic & International Studies,
New Delhi
Nuclear
Warheads
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
Cold War
ends
NPT
10000
0
1945
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1960
1975
1990
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2015
2030
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Risks and Dangers
Old dangers remain, new ones increasing
 Large number of weapons to remain in arsenals
for decades if not through the century since

there is no movement toward
abolition of nuclear weapons

Minimum levels of holdings still run the risk of
rapid escalation to maximum exchange

New weapon designs will make NW more
usable for war fighting and inherently
unstable
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Abolition of Nuclear Weapons?

Past focus almost exclusively on physical
reduction and elimination. It must continue
“Political will” because of belief in the
political and military utility of nuclear weapons
does not allow movement toward disarmament
 Need to address the “software” besides the
“hardware”

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What we require, then, is a
concerted effort to
build norms, inhibitions and
barriers against the use and
threat of use of nuclear weapons
while we work to physically reduce
and eliminate nuclear weapons
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Abiding lesson of history

All major changes have taken place because of
changes in ideas and beliefs:
- Divine Right of Kings
- Slavery
- Colonial empires
- Untouchability
- Apartheid, and so on
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A path not taken a new Convention on an old model

The model: 1925 Geneva Convention
The rule: Ban the threat and use of
chemical weapons
 The conditions: No bar on production and
possession (which were to be dealt with
separately)
 The exception: Use permitted in self-defence

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Corollary
Universal doctrine of No-First-Use
(A “second strike” capability was seen as the test
of credibility of nuclear deterrence)
 Nuclear postures and strategy of de-alerted
arsenals, separated delivery systems and
warheads
 Non-use in battlefield scenarios
 Other measures like FMCT, CTBT etc.

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How can this be done?
Revive the UN General Assembly resolution
since 1978 passed year after year with nearly 120
states supporting it
 Generate support outside the UN system to
press for a

Convention to Outlaw the
Threat and Use of
Nuclear Weapons
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