Transcript Diapositive 1 - United Nations

Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
2011 International Conference on MDG Statistics
Manila, 19 – 21 October 2011
Tracking Development Progress in the Pacific
facts, fiction and some follies
Gerald Haberkorn
Manager, Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Noumea, New Caledonia
[email protected]; www.spc.int/sdp
Pacific Island Countries and Territories
CNMI
Guam
Palau
Marshall Islands
Federated States
of Micronesia
Papua New
Guinea
Nauru
Kiribati
Solomon
Islands
Tuvalu
Tokelau
Cook
Wallis et Samoa
Islands
Futuna
Am
Fiji
Samoa
Vanuatu
New
Caledonia
Niue
French
Polynesia
Tonga
Pitcairn
Islands
One of hundreds
and another one
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Structure of presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
Sea of islands – multiple diversities
Tracking MDG progress in the Pacific, 2011
Opinions versus facts – some data management follies
Reflecting on way forward
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
A sea of islands – multiple diversities
•
•
•
•
•
15 countries, 7 territories
Population, 2011: 10 million (PNG 6,9 million -> Pitcairn 48
people)
1 country 2/3 of Pacific population <---> 8 countries < 20,000 pop
3 sub-regions: Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia
Substantial diversity: bio-physical environment, economies,
demography, cultural and political
o
•
0.1% of world population – 1/3 of world’s known and documented languages
(700)
Considerable similarities:
o
o
o
o
o
Small size of domestic markets
Heavy reliance on imports
Isolation/transport challenges and costs
Dominance of public sectors
Weak manufacturing base and high cost structure
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
A sea of islands – multiple diversities
• Clearly reflected in 2011 MDG tracking report
• It also illustrates the danger of regional aggregation of values,
•
with one country biasing regional picture.
If aggregates are required, might be beneficial to work along
the lines of established three sub-regions (see next slide)
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Opinions versus facts – some data management follies
• Accurate assessment of MDG developments over time
hampered by both lack and abundance of specific MDG
indicators, as well as data communication and data
management hiccups.
• Current scenarios and challenges with Pacific Island
Countries’ MDG reporting
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
parallel reporting of multiple values for the same indicator,
use of estimates when national data are available,
references to data unavailability where information does exist
misinformed assertions about development status of countries,
including the lack of development progress made.
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Parallel reporting facilitated by abundance, not simply
because of lacking MDG related data and information
National
Regional
International
 Cook Islands 2005 and 2010
 Fiji Islands 2004 and 2009
 Kiribati 2007
 Marshall Islands 2005 and 2009
 Niue 2007
 Palau 2008
 Papua New Guinea 2005 and 2009
 SPC: First Regional
MDG Report, 2004
 PFIS: 2011 Pacific
MDGs Tracking
Report
(annual since 2009)
 UNSD Annual MDG Report
 ESCAP/ADB/UNDP Annual
MDG report for Asia-Pacific
 WHO Progress import on
achieving Health related
MDGs in Western Pacific
Region, 2010
(forthcoming)
 Samoa 2010 (2nd progress report)
 Solomon Islands 2004
 Tonga 2005 and 2010
 Tuvalu 2006
 Vanuatu 2005 and 2010
i. Parallel reporting of multiple values for the same indicator
Table 2: MDG 8.15 – Mobile cellular phone subscriptions per 100 population, Marshall islands
Description
Value
Year
Data Source
Percentage of population owning a
cellular phone
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions
per 100 population
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions
per 100 population
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions
per 100 population
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions
per 100 population
Mobile cellular phone subscriptions
per 100 population
40.6
2007
2007 Marshall islands DHS survey
17.5
2008
Marshall Islands National MDG Report
3.78
(7.03)
1.68
2008
(2010)
2009
1.6
2009
World Bank ICT at a glance
24.0
2011
National Telco Authority /Ministry of
Transport and Communication
UNSD MDG Indicators
ADB PIPI Draft report
ii. Use of estimates when national data are available
iii. References to data unavailability where information exists
iv. Misinformed assertions about development status of
countries, including the lack of development progress made.
Two key challenges (illustrated with reference to IMR)
•
Conceptual: choice of meaningful targets (focus on halving or reducing
something by 2/3 not always conducive to accurately reflect true
achievements)
• Fiji (national data): 17 (1990) –> 15 (2009)
•
•
•
•
2015 target: unlikely to achieve two-third reduction (2015) and get
to 5.7 (going by developments since 1990).
Positive view: 15/1000 = below 20/1000 level and reflects small
improvement since 1990;
Critical view: not much change since 1990, despite considerable
investments in MCH/EPI/nutrition/water and sanitation over last two
decades.
Pragmatic view: examine IMR’s two components, to ascertain
developments in neonatal/post-neonatal mortality.
iv. misinformed assertions about development status of
countries, including the lack of development progress made.
Two key challenges – examples, IMR
• Vanuatu (national data): 45 (1990) –> 21 (2009)
•
2015 target: on track to achieve two-third reduction (2015)
and get to 15.
iv. misinformed assertions about development status of
countries, including the lack of development progress made.
Two key challenges – examples, IMR
2. Methodological: choice of realistic 1990 benchmark.
… too many indicators, not enough agreement ….
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Table 6: Comparison of Infant Mortality rate, 1990 baseline (or nearest year)
Revisiting Fiji and Vanuatu achievements
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here?
Improve communication, coordination, data management
• Statistics collected (sourced) at national level;
• Indicators derived at national (with assistance from regional
and other statistical TA providers) and international levels;
• Indicators compiled and published nationally, regionally,
internationally.
• Data management increases in complexity from statistical
collection to translation into information, involving diverse
players with diverse interest:
o NSOs doing their job, to the best of their ability, complying with
their mandate to produce “official statistics”;
o International statistical stakeholders doing their job, complying with
their mandate(s), to assist in producing comparable information.
o Somewhere, somehow, something, it seems, has gone astray with
communication and coordination
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here?
Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible contribution can we make?
• Ten year Pacific Statistics Strategy, 2011 – 2020
o Key focus on harmonization of statistical concepts, classifications,
systems of collections to provide core set of comparable, quality and
timely statistics across key sectors – political mandate by Pacific
Leaders in pacific plan
o Revamp/develop administrative databases in key sectors to facilitate
regular statistical compilations, to improve sustainability of
collecting/dissemination key core statistics on a more real-time basis
o Phase 1 (2011 – 2012) priorities in economic statistics , vital statistics
and civil registration, health and education information systems:
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here?
Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible contribution can we make?
• National Minimum Development Indicator database
o Comprises of 192 indicators ( at the moment) across ten thematic
areas, comprising all population-based MDG indicators
o Phase 1 completed, with sourcing of 67% of 2,880 data points;
o Phase 2 about to start with
o
o
Countries reviewing their NMDI files;
SPC to review agency comments plus include some additional indicators
from key technical and financial partners (so far Pacific-based UNDAF
group , UNFPA, UNICEF, WHO, ILO; FAO; AusAID and ADB)
o Phase 3: gradual incorporation of indicators pertaining to critical
cross-cutting themes such as climate change and food security;
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here?
Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible contribution can we make?
• National Minimum Development Indicator database
o NMDI database, once Phase 2 completed in early 2012, can provide
the go-to place for Pacific island countries MDG indicators;
o Provides good basis to contribute to improved statistical
communication , coordination and data management regards MDGs
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Vanuatu - PD.5.2.1 – Current Primary School Enrolment (MDG.2.1)
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Tonga - H.4.3 – Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (MDG.5.3)
Tonga - H.4.4 – Adolescent Birth Rate (Teenage Fertility Rate) (MDG.5.4)
Tonga - H.4.5 – Antenatal care coverage (% of women who had at least one antenatal session with a skilled provider) (MDG 5.5)
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here?
Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible contribution can we make?
• Improved regional statistical governance
o Pacific Statistics Steering Committee, comprising of 6 Government
statisticians and four representatives of key technical (UNFPA as chair
of UNDAF; University of the South Pacific) financial partners (AusAID
and ADB, representing bilateral and multilateral partners) meets twice
yearly to monitor implementation of Ten Year Pacific Statistics strategy
o PSSC provides forum for regular dialogue between national, regional
and international statistical stakeholders
Statistics for Development Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Where to from here?
Improve communication, coordination, data management
What tangible developments would we like to see?
• UNSD consolidation/expansion of MDG lab
o Recognizes importance of national data/official statistics
o Adds value to UNSD MDG country database, by publishing
international and national MDG indicators side-by-side
Regional Dialogue on MDG statistics in 2012
o SPC acknowledges UNSD’s proposal to collaborate in convening a
Pacific Regional MDG forum involving national and international
statistical stakeholders to address Pacific-specific data management
challenges pertaining to MDG statistics
o Provides timely and welcome opportunity to move forward in
improving communication, coordination, data management regards
MDGs.
Thank you