Transcript Modeling Biocomplexity - Actors, Landscapes and

Evoland – An Alternative
Futuring Tool
John Bolte
Department of Biological and
Ecological Engineering
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR USA
Alternative Futuring

Examine multiple sets of trends and assumptions
about future conditions, generally using one of more
models of change

Generally consists of a synthesis of these
assumptions, trends into trajectories of future change

Generally involves significant stakeholder
interactions to define constraints, trajectories, drivers

May involve the use of simulation, decision support
tools
A Alternative Futuring Tool Evoland
Evoland (Evolving Landscapes) is a tool for conducting
alternative futures analyses using:

A spatially explicit, GIS-based approach to landscape
representation

Captures human decision-making through explicit
representation of land use/land management policies and
actor-based (multiagent-based) approach to policy selection

Incorporates autonomous landscape process models for
representing non human (natural) landscape change
Evoland – Triad of Relationships
Economics
Ecosystem Health
Social (Programmatic)
Provide a common frame of reference
for actors, policies and landscape production
Landscapes
Metrics of Production
Evoland – General Structure
Actors:
Decisionmakers
making landscape
change by selecting
policies responsive to
their objectives
Policy
Selection
Policies: Fundamental
Descriptors of
constraints and actions
defining land use
management
decisionmaking
Landscape Feedback
Landscape Evaluators:
Generate landscape
metrics reflecting scarcity
Actions
Landscape:
Spatial Container
in which land use
changes are
depicted
Autonomous Change
Processes: Models of
nonhuman change
Evoland Framework
Data Sources
Evaluative Models
Parcels (IDU’s)
Fish Abundance/Distributions
Floodplain Habitat
Policy Set(s)
Small-Stream Macroinvertabrates
Autonomous Process
Models
Population Growth
Urban Expansion
Vegetative Succession
Land Value
Evoland
Agent Descriptors
Upslope Wildlife Habitat
Parcel Market Values
Agricultural Land Supply
Forest Land Supply
Residential Land Supply
Conservation Set-Asides
Policies in Evoland

Describe actions available to actors

Primary Characteristics:

Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)

Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative models)

Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection and
application of the Policy

Policies are a fundamental unit of computation in Evoland

Example: [Purchase conservations easement to allow
revegetation of degraded riparian areas] in [areas with no built
structures and high channel migration capacity] when [native
fish habitat becomes scarce]
Actors in Evoland

Fundamentally, actors have decision-making authority over
their portion of the landscape

Actors have Behaviors that relate to their values (e.g.
ecosystem health, economics)

Can organize into higher level Associations to influence
policy generation, policy selection



Based on spatial proximity
Based on common behaviors
For WRB project, Actors are initialized from Census data,
voting behavior analysis