Transcript IEA Implementing Agreement RETD Strategy

RETRANS2 – Final Report
Executive Summary
Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Armin Schnettler, Thomas Dederichs
Ann-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz
RWTH Aachen University, Germany
26. July 2011
Introduction
 IN 2009/ 2010 the project IEA-RETD „Renewable Energy in Road Transport
(RETRANS)“ examined different options of using renewable electricity in
electric vehicles.
 Using renewable electricity in electric vehicles would result in a „Co-Evolution“ of
the energy and the transport sector.
 Based on the findings of RETRANS, the follow-up project RETRANS2
Regions aims at identifying challenges and opportunities for the Co-Evolution
of electric vehicles and renewable electricity in three world regions: North
America, Europe and China
 An analysis of the characteristics of each region concerning the political,
economical and infrastructural framework gives stakeholders an opportunity
to understand the different roads the Co-Evolution can take.
 The assessment of different policy options which were suggested in
RETRANS highlights the regionally differing developments.
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Scope of RETRANS2 Regions
Identify Challenges and Opportunities for the CoEvolution of Electric Vehicles and Renewable Electricity
 Comparison of three world regions (North America, Europe, China)
 Assist stakeholders of this Co-Evolution in better understanding the
characteristics of each region
 Examine whether the policy recommendations from the RETRANS project
can be applied
 Identification of those policy options that have to be adjusted to better fit the
situation in one region
 Approach:
 Assessment of studies that are relevant to the field, of pilot projects, of statistical
data on the three regions and of policies that concern either electric vehicles or
renewable electricity
 Expert interviews for additional insights
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Table of Contents
 Regional Context
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Socio-Economic Background of the regions
Passenger Vehicle markets
Pilot Projects deploying Electric Vehicles
Share and expected development of electricity from renewable sources
Policies for the integration of electricity from renewable sources
Situation of Grids
 Policy Assessment
 Recommendations from RETRANS
 Policies on Renewable Electricity and Electric Vehicles until today
 Regional Assessment of policy options from RETRANS
 Conclusions
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Context – Economic influences on Electric Vehicles
EVs meet with diverse circumstances globally
North
America
Europe
China
Efficiency gains in conventional vehicles challenge emission benefits of electric vehicles
Customer acceptance of vehicle design, performance and new mobility solutions is unclear
Increases in personal mobility can be expected in all regions
Personal mobility
relies almost totally
on cars
Personal mobility
relies on cars and on
public transport
Personal mobility
relies strongly on
public transport
(except around
cities)
Biofuels are
available regionally
Biofuels are widely
available
Biofuels are not
widely available
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Context – Economic influences on Electric Vehicles
Factors influencing the price gap between electric and
conventional vehicles
North
America
Europe
China
Very low gas price
Elevated gas price
Low gas price
No taxation of GHG
emissions from vehicles
Taxation of GHG
emissions from vehicles
Taxation of GHG
emissions from vehicles
Vehicles have to fulfill
set criteria for receiving
tax reductions
Vehicles have to fulfill
set criteria for being
subsidized
Only vehicles recommended
by the government are
subsidized
No electricity
consumption tax
Elevated electricity
consumption tax (esp. in
Nordic Countries)
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Context – Vehicles Market
The Chinese vehicle market has the highest potential
for a transition towards electric vehicles
North America
Vehicles on Road
Passenger
Vehicle Sales
Vehicles
per 1000 people
Overall
Market situation
Europe
China
277 million
1% EVs (mostly HEVs)
210 million
1% EVs
~55 million
0,5% EVs
12 million (2009)
16 million (2009)
10,3 million (2009)
13,7 million (2010)
830
Europe: 473
Nordic: 500
China: 54
Beijing: 228
Stagnating, expected
to increase as of
2012
Stagnating
Strongly growing
(doubling of sales
within 3 years)
The strong growth in the Chinese vehicle market could facilitate market entry
for Electric Vehicles for first-time owners.
In the other markets, EVs may have more difficulties securing their share.
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Context – Regional Pilot Projects – Comparison
• Only The EV Project
(US) targets a fleet
of several thousand
vehicles across
cities
• Diverse nationally/
regionally funded
projects
• Mostly cooperation of vehicle
manufacturer(s),
authorities, utilities
and DSOs.
• Focus on infrastructure and
usage experience
in cities and on
important routes
China
• Pilot projects are
public-privatepartnerships
• Electricity
companies are
coordinators
• Small vehicle
deployment
Europe
North America
Pilot Projects – The first phase of EV deployment
• National „Ten
Cities Thousand
Vehicles“ Pilot
Program
• Federal and local
subsidies mostly for
public vehicles
• Cooperation with
local vehicle
manufacturers
• Mostly deployment
of EVs as buses,
taxis and other
public vehicles.
Pilot projects lead to first infrastructure and learning effects (thus also cost reductions)
in the production and maintenance of electric vehicles.
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Context – Pilot Projects’ Learnings
Comparison of regions
Outcome of pilot projects
 EVs alone cannot solve traffic problems
– an integrated approach and a new concept of transport are necessary
 User acceptance:
 EVs for a set purpose are well accepted
 Business cases:
 Car-sharing/ Mobility Partnerships for commuting
 Usage patterns:
 Local solutions for traffic problems and personal mobility are needed
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Context – Incentives for Electric Vehicles
Incentives are similar on first glance
– differences lie in the amounts
North
America
Europe
China
Vehicle emission standards are in place on national levels.
Subsidies
Subsidies
(6 national policies)
Subsidies
(partly for private
EV acquisition)
Tax exemptions
Tax exemptions
(22 national policies)
Tax exemption
in Beijing
Traffic privileges
(3 national policies)
Traffic privileges
(municipal policies)
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Context – Electricity from Renewable Sources
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• Policies for RES-E
integration widely
implemented
across Europe
• Successfully
increased RES-E
share
• Deregulated
common internal
electricity market
China
• Policies for RES-E
only on state/
province level
• Vertically
integrated
electricity markets:
new producers can
not join in
• Feed-In tariffs lead
to higher electricity
prices – difficult in
regulated markets
• Infrastructure gaps
hinder new RES-E
production
Europe
North America
Current regulatory framework for new Renewable
Electricity
• Vertically
integrated
electricity market:
new producers can
not join in
• Grid companies
are obliged to
integrate as much
RES-E as the
government
requires
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Context – Needed System Expansion
EVs mostly affect distribution grids
North
America
Europe
China
Electric Vehicles will first be deployed in cities and urban areas
Assets of local
distribution networks
may overload
Assets of local
distribution networks
may overload
Overloads are only
expected for high
penetrations (>50%)
RES-E expansion far
from demand
RES-E expansion on
distribution grid level
(unless off-shore wind)
(far from demand centers)
Thus preparing grid
for more feed-in
Thus enhancing
transportation capacity
Thus local grid
development (EVs,
Feed-In, Smart Grids)
Expanding distribution
grids locally
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RES-E expansion will
concentrate on large
production sites
Expanding distribution
grids locally
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Context – Comparison of backgrounds
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• Increasingly distributed generation
(RES-E) and load
(EVs) challenge
grid
• Communication
technology needed
for higher penetration of EVs and
RES-E
• Nordic Countries
may achieve CoEvolution more
easily (most RES-E
and EVs)
China
• Low population
density: Grid
expansion costly
• Few instruments for
furthering RES-E
expansion
• EV deployment may
stay marginal for
longer:
Focus on cities!
Europe
North America
Comparison of regions
Characteristics
• Distributed generation not encouraged
• New RES-E in large
facilities require
transmission!
• EV deployment
concentrated on
public institutions
and load centers
• Market for lowperformance EVs in
rural areas
• Experience with electric
scooters has shown that
passenger vehicles
remain important status
symbols in rural areas
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Context – Roadmap for Co-Evolution
Different situation and cultures need diverse policies
Local
integration
of EVs and
RES-E
First Smart
Grids
time
Local grid
expansion
Controlled
charging
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Ancillary
services
(bidirectional)?
Penetration rate
of electric vehicles
Unregulated charging
Controlled charging
Further RES-E integration
Active load management
Ancillary services
Charging with RES-E
Storage of RES-E
Ancillary services
(bidirectional)
Urban EV
deployment
Further RES-E
integration
Transmission
grid expansion
Controlled
charging
Ancillary
services
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Table of Contents
 Regional Context






Socio-Economic Background of the regions
Passenger Vehicle markets
Pilot Projects deploying Electric Vehicles
Share and expected development of electricity from renewable sources
Policies for the integration of electricity from renewable sources
Situation of Grids
 Policy Assessment
 Recommendations from RETRANS
 Policies on Renewable Electricity and Electric Vehicles until today
 Regional Assessment of policy options from RETRANS
 Conclusions
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Co-Evolution – Policy options from RETRANS
A two-phase long-term policy approach for large scale
introduction of Evs and Co-Evolution with RES-E
Prepare for EV’s
Phase 1
Preparation
Phase 2
Deployment
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• Infrastructure and
standardization
• Pilot fleets in niche
markets for
learning effects and
cost reductions
• Provide long term
perspective to
industry
Increase RES-E
production
Ensure balanced
grid development
• Priority access for
renewables
• Promotion via
• Feed-in tariffs or
premiums
• Renewable
Portfolio Shares
or obligations
• Cap and trade
• Coordinate
technical and
institutional efforts
• Smart grids and
active load
management/
regulated charging
Increase
deployment of EV
to reach mass
markets
Increase system
integration to
enable higher use
of EV and RES-E
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Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options
Phase 1 options are almost always feasible
For Phase 2 options the feasibility is insecure
North America
Europe
China
Tax exemptions
for RES-E
charging
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Re-Investing
electricity tax
~
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Hard Coupling
~
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~
EV manufacturer
investments into
RE capacity
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Cap and Trade
~
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~
Grid Stabilization
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Bonus
~
~
~
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Conclusions
Consistent long term policy is required for stimulating large
scale introduction of EVs and Co-Evolution with RES-E
 Provide security of investment for car industry and infrastructure providers
(Security of the existing tax exemptions )
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Mandatory targets for EV-numbers and RES-E share
Demonstration of system integration of EVs and RES-E
Standards development
Investments in infrastructure
 Involve a variety of actors
 Coordinate network development and system integration to allow high
penetrations of EV and RES-E
 This is already taking place in the national Nordic TSO's and in the context of
ENTSO-E
 Grid reinforcement and upgrade
 RET integration
 Coordinate system integration among grids and vehicle/battery manufacturers
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Conclusions
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• European policies
have to build a
stable framework
for nationally
adapted policies
• Standardization is
an important issue
for providing
security for
manufacturers
• All discussed
policy options are
feasible on
European or
National level
China
• Incentives and
Policies on State/
Province level
most likely
• Fiscal (indirect)
incentives likely to
be publicly
accepted
• Facilitating market
entrance of EVs
and RES-E is key
to Co-Evolution
• Profitability is the
most important
acceptance factor
• Targets are a
premise
Europe
North America
Policy Recommendations by Region
• Centralized state –
can more easily
implement
regulatory policy
options
• Premise for many
options is the
development of
emission reduction
and RES-E targets
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Conclusions
Actions for Co-Evolution‘s stakeholders
 Government and regulators
 Regional infrastructure strategies
 Funding research and information campaigns
 International governmental organizations
 Co-ordinate international standardization issues for cross-national compatibility
 Support the RD&D of EV system solutions for developing countries
 Support dissemination of RD&D on EVs and infrastructure
 TSOs/ DSOs
 Help develop business models
 Promote adoption of real-time energy-usage information and pricing
 Co-operate with OEMs for interoperability standards and post-installation support
 Utilities
 Co-operation with regulators to facilitate implementation of RES-E and EV connection
 OEMs
 International strategy and standards for interoperability of system components
 Address concerns with long-term post-installation support and reliability
 Marketing and information campaigns for EVs
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OEMs = Vehicle and charging stations manufacturers
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Conclusions
Comparison of regions
Lessons learned so far
 Policy options & public acceptance
 Skepticism regarding Co-Evolution
 Low RES-E shares reduce benefits
 Technological and regulatory hindrances in foreground
 An uninformed public does not accept EV promotion “from above”
 Information campaigns on the benefits of EVs needed
 Including financial, fiscal and non-monetary benefits for users
 Policies furthering EVs and RES-E have to be adapted to regional
characteristics
 Important regional differences in Phase 1, Possible synergies in Phase 2
 Influence of RES-E deployment and potential
 Potential for RES-E not fully exhausted yet
 Sustainability of RES-E for EVs absolutely vital for ecological benefits
 Electricity tariffs that guarantee RES-E for charging EVs are needed
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Conclusion
Conclusions
 For a true Co-Evolution of transport and renewable electricity local pilot
projects should gain experience with EV and RES-E integration and,
accordingly, grid reinforcements
 System integration can be achieved by involving the system operators in pilot
projects and by upgrading the grid and its regulation for allowing for bi-directionality
and integration of renewable energy
 Electricity tariffs that guarantee RES-E for charging EVs are vital for sustainable
EV integration
 In China the integration of renewable energy focuses on large RES-E plants.
Distributed generation is not encouraged and the current small numbers of
EVs are not of interest for grid services yet. Synergies and Co-Evolution are
thus complicated.
 Pilot projects show that electric vehicles can be successfully integrated in
combination with a framework of mobility solutions that address users’
concerns
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Summary
 Regional electricity system characteristics and policy frameworks differ and
have to be taken into consideration for short-term EV and RE deployment
 The coupling of EV and RE is needed for full benefits but has to overcome
regulatory and acceptance or policy barriers.
 The Co-Evolution of EV and RE has to include a variety of stakeholders who
have considerable influence
 RETD recommends …
 … to enable pure RE charging for EV worldwide
 … to choose holistic mobility policies for best integrating EV into the
transport landscape
 … to devise national short-term policy solutions in order to account for
regional differences
 … to adapt mandatory emissions and/ or RE targets for providing
a stable incentive for further action
 … to introduce EV in cities first.
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THANK YOU!
For additional information on RETD
Online: www.iea-retd.org
Contact: [email protected]