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WESTCAS - Shortage Impacts on AZ CAP General Manager David Modeer October 29, 2014 Central Arizona Project 336-mile aqueduct stretches from Lake Havasu to Tucson 14 pumping plants lift water nearly 3,000 feet 8 siphons, 3 tunnels Lake Pleasant/New Waddell Dam Annually delivers approx. 520 billion gallons (1.6 mill acre-feet) Delivery of Colorado River water began in 1985 in Maricopa County Construction complete in 1993 CAP System Power Usage CAP is the single largest enduser of power in Arizona. CAP uses about 2,800,000 megawatt hours of electrical energy each year. Where Does CAP Get Its Power? 95% of the energy used by CAP is produced at the Navajo Generating Station near Page, Arizona. CAP, through the Bureau of Reclamation, has access to nearly 25% of the power produced. Background and Importance of NGS • Constructed in the early 1970s on the Navajo Reservation near Page, AZ, to provide power to the CAP as an alternative to two additional dams in the vicinity of the Grand Canyon • 3 coal-fired units, total net output of 2,250 megawatts (MW) • Operated by the Salt River Project (SRP) on behalf of six participants • Provides 95% of power required by CAP • Surplus power from the BOR’s share of NGS is sold to help fund CAP repayment, which in turn funds Indian water rights settlements LADWP 21.2% NV Energy 11.3% SRP 21.7% TEP 7.5% APS 14.0% USBR (CAP) 24.3% Benefits to CAP of TWG Agreement EPA released its final rule in July 2014 Ensures the viability of NGS to 2044 Provides certainty that stable and reliable power supplies are available for decades Significantly delays the cost of SCR, potentially until 2030 Preserves CAP's ability to fund Arizona's repayment obligation for construction of the CAP system through the sale of surplus NGS power Interim Guidelines (2007) Basin States agreement in 2006 on conjunctive management of Lakes Powell and Mead and shortage sharing in the Lower Basin • Adopted by Secretary in 2007 • Effective through water year 2026 • Renegotiation to start by 2020 2007 Guidelines • Lower Basin apportionments are reduced when Lake Mead falls below specified elevations: Elevation 1075’ 1050’ 1025’ Reduction 333,000 AF 417,000 AF 500,000 AF • If Lake Mead is projected to fall below elevation 1000, the Secretary will consult with Basin States to discuss further measures Shortage Sharing • Arizona and Nevada share Lower Basin shortages under the 2007 Guidelines • Mexico voluntarily agreed in Minute 319 to accept reductions in its deliveries at the same elevations Lake Mead Elevation Arizona Reduction Nevada Reduction Mexico Reduction 1075’ 320,000 AF 13,000 AF 50,000 AF 1050’ 400,000 AF 17,000 AF 70,000 AF 1025’ 480,000 AF 20,000 AF 125,000 AF No reductions to California under 2007 Guidelines Other Excess Shortage (157,000) Ag Pool Shortage Low 1.5 MAF 320,000 2017 Level 1 Shortage (163,000) 1.0 MAF 0.5 MAF NIA Priority 225,000 Indian Priority M&I Priority 317,000 471,000 Priority 3 68,400 High 0 MAF CAP Delivery Priority Ag Pool 137,000 Lake Mead Elevation (ft) Lake Mead Since 2000 1,220 1,210 1,200 1,190 1,180 1,170 1,160 1,150 1,140 1,130 1,120 1,110 1,100 1,090 1,080 1,070 1,060 1,050 1,040 1,030 1,020 1,010 1,000 990 91% Full (25 MAF) 12.52 MAF Powell Release 35% Full (9.6 MAF) 2016 2015 1075 - First Shortage Level 24 Month 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Projected 24 Month 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Observed Elevation Impact of “Structural Deficit” • Results in a decline of 12+ feet in Lake Mead every year when releases from Powell are “normal” (8.23 MAF) • Undermines effectiveness of the 2007 Guidelines • Drives Lower Basin to shortage • CAP forced to bear obligations of others • Evaporation and other system losses • Lower Basin’s half of Mexican Treaty obligation • US failure to operate YDP Risk to All Colorado River Users Without equalization or corrective action, Lake Mead will fall below elevation 1000 in 5-8 years If Lake Mead is below elevation 1000: • Impacts SNWA ability to withdraw water • Less than 4.5 MAF left in storage in Lake Mead • Reduced power generation and efficiency at Hoover Dam, potential cavitation or vibration damage What will the Secretary of the Interior do? Drought Response Plan • Based on principle that all Colorado River water and power users share risk • CAP and ADWR are working with Basin States and Reclamation to prepare a “Drought Response and Sustainability Plan” • Ongoing efforts • Expand weather modification and tamarisk removal • Pilot System Conservation Agreement • Yuma Desalting Plant pilot run • Innovative Conservation Program grants • Long-term augmentation studies Current Status Lake Mead is at elevation 1081 feet = 39% capacity • 2015 – no shortage • 2016 - 36% probability • 2017 – 58% probability CAP is working on a reservoir protection plan with other Lower Basin water users and taking steps to protect Lake Mead Questions?