Transcript Resouorces to Reserves

International Workshop on Power
Generation with
Carbon Capture and Storage
in India
New Delhi, 22-23 January 2008
International Energy Perspective,
World Energy Outlook and the
Role of CCS
Dr. Antonio Pflüger
Head, Energy Technology Collaboration Division
International Energy Agency
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Coal’s share of total primary energy
supply and power generation, 2005
Global Primary Energy Supply
World
OECD
USA
China
India
TPES
coal’s share
11 435 Mtoe
25.3%
5 548 Mtoe
20.4%
2 340 Mtoe
23.7%
1 735 Mtoe
64.1%
537 Mtoe
38.4%
Global Electricity Generation by Fuel
World
OECD
USA
China
India
elec. gen. coal’s share
18 235 TWh
40.3%
10 376 TWh
38.1%
4 268 TWh
50.7%
2 497 TWh
78.1%
699 TWh
68.7%
ref: IEA Coal Information 2007, IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2007 & IEA statistics
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
World hard coal reserves (and
resources) in top 11 countries, 2005
100Gt resource
+
100Gt proven reserve
Poland
8Gt
Ukraine
16Gt
Kazakhstan
28Gt
China
96Gt
USA
219Gt
Colombia
7Gt
India
92Gt
Brazil
6Gt
South Africa
49Gt
Australia
67Gt
Russia
147Gt
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Sectoral breakdown of India’s energyrelated CO2 emissions (1971-2005)
700
600
Pow er and heat (including
autoproduction)
Million tons of CO2
500
Other energy industries
400
Manufacturing industries and
construction
300
Transport
Other sectors
200
100
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
0
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
World coal production and CO2
emissions from fossil fuel use
1971-2006
million tonnes
GtCO2
7,000
30
6,000
CO2 estimates
for 2005 & 2006
25
global CO2
5,000
20
4,000
15
3,000
brown coal
ROW
India
China
10
2,000
5
1,000
0
1971
0
1981
1991
2001
ref: IEA Coal Information 2007, IEA CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuel Combustion 1971-2004 & IEA estimates
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Ministerial Conclusions
May 2007
We will promote clean coal and press
ahead through the IEA and the CSLF
with the full scale demonstration and
early deployment of CCS, paying due
regard to regulatory and safety
issues.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
G8 Summit in Heiligendamm 2007
Accelerating Development and Deployment of CCS
 reinforcing (…) commitment made under the
Gleneagles and St. Petersburg Plans of
Action to support the initiatives taken by the
IEA and CSLF
 encouraging (…) governments to design
mechanisms to stimulate the construction
and operation of a growing number of largescale demonstrations of sustainable fossil
fuels technologies in commercial power
generation
 encouraging industry to consider the
concept of capture ready when developing
new fossil fuel power plant
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
G8 - Gleneagles Communiqué
July 2005
“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our
shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing
energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction
with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“
“We will work to accelerate the development and
commercialization of carbon capture and storage technology
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Role of CCS in Mitigating CO2 Emissions
in 2050 – IEA’s 2006 ETP Map Scenario
(Return to 2003 Emissions)
CCS in all scenarios 20 – 28% emissions reduction compared to Basis scenario
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
World Energy Outlook 2007
Reference Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Conclusions
 Global energy system is on an increasingly
unsustainable path
 China and India are transforming the global
energy system by their sheer size - faster than
expected
 Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition
to a more secure, lower carbon energy system
 New policies now under consideration would make
a major contribution but more is needed to
achieve a CO2 stabilization of 450ppm
 Next 10 years are critical
 The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid
 Technology will be “locked-in” for decades
 Growing tightness in oil & gas markets
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
World Primary Energy Demand
billion tonnes of oil equivalent
18
Other renewables
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a
century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
50
billion tonnes (Gt)
45
Reference Scenario
40
42 Gt
35
27 Gt
30
25
20
15
10
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global emissions will increase by 57% in the Reference Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
India’s Primary Energy Demand
by Fuel
1400
1200
Mtoe
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
Coal
Oil
1995
Gas
2000
Nuclear
2005
2010
Hydro
2015
Biomass
2020
2030
Other renewables
Large increase in coal demand
© OECD/IEA - 2007
2025
Reference Scenario:
Primary Energy Demand in Selected
Countries
4 000
2005
2030
Mtoe
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
India
China
Brazil
Russia
Japan United States
India becomes the third largest energy consuming nation in
the world in 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
World’s Top Five CO2 Emitters
2005
2015
2030
Gt
rank
Gt
rank
Gt
rank
US
5.8
1
6.4
2
6.9
2
China
5.1
2
8.6
1
11.4
1
Russia
1.5
3
1.8
4
2.0
4
Japan
1.2
4
1.3
5
1.2
5
India
1.1
5
1.8
3
3.3
3
India becomes the world’s third-largest energy-related emitter
of CO2 by 2015
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
Per-Capita Energy-Related CO2
Emissions
OECD
2005
Other developing
countries
India
2015
2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
tonnes of CO2 per person
India’s per-capita emissions double by 2030, but remain well
below OECD levels
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
India’s Electricity Generation Mix
1 200
1 000
TWh
800
600
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
Other renewables
400
200
0
- 200
2005-2015
2015-2030
Coal remains the backbone of India’s power sector
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Alternative Policy Scenario
Key Trends in India
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
50
billion tonnes (Gt)
45
Reference Scenario
40
42 Gt
19%
35
34 Gt
27 Gt
30
Alternative Policy Scenario
25
20
15
10
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global emissions will increase by 57% in the Reference Scenario,
but they level off in the Alternative Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Alternative Policy Scenario:
India’s Primary Energy Demand
Compared with the Reference Scenario
700
2005
2030 Reference Scenario
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
600
Mtoe
500
400
300
200
100
0
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass Other
renewables
New policies could cut energy demand by 17% in 2030 & boost
the contribution of non-fossil fuels
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Alternative Policy Scenario:
India’s CO2 Emissions Compared with
the Reference Scenario
3.5
5%
24%
19%
18%
35%
Gt of CO2
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Nuclear
Renewables and biofuels
Switching from coal to gas and improved efficiency on the supply side
End-use electricity-efficiency measures
End-use fuel-efficiency measures
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Most of the 27% reduction in CO2 emissions comes from measures
to improve energy efficiency
Alternative Policy Scenario:
India’s Energy Investment
Change in Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure
Compared with the Reference Scenario, 2006-2030
Net savings
Demand-side investment
Gas
Coal
Oil
Distribution
Transmission
Power generation
-100 -80
-60
-40 -20 0
20 40
billion dollars (2006)
60
80
Higher demand-side investment is more than outweighed by lower
capital needs on the supply side, especially in the power sector
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Alternative Policy Scenario:
India’s Annual Energy-Related
Expenditure per Household
700
dollars (2006)
600
500
2005
2030 Reference Scenario
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
400
300
200
100
0
Domestic needs
Transport services
Households spend a lot less on fuel, thanks mainly to more
efficient cars & electrical appliances
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Summing Up
 India, like China, is one of the emerging giants of
the world economy & international energy
markets
 India’s energy demand is set to rise sharply
absent new policies
 Imports of oil, gas & coal & emissions of CO2 and
local pollutants are set to carry on rising
 Consequences for energy security & climate
change are alarming
 Challenge for India, as for all countries, is to
achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon
energy system
 Strong commitment needed to implement policies
& create an attractive investment environment
© OECD/IEA - 2007
450 ppm Stabilisation Case
© OECD/IEA - 2007
CO2 Emissions
450ppm Stabilisation Case
45
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
42 Gt
CCS in industry
CCS in power generation
Nuclear
Renewables
Switching from coal to gas
End Use electricity efficiency
Reference Scenario
40
Gt of CO2
35
30
25
End Use fuel efficiency
27 Gt
450 Stabilisation Case
20
23 Gt
15
10
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
By 2030, emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt,
a reduction of 19 Gt compared with the Reference Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
450 ppm Stabilization Case Electricity Generation
35 000
Fossil CCS
30 000
Fossil fuel
25 000
Hydro
TWh
20 000
Renewables
15 000
Nuclear
10 000
5 000
Fossil fuel
early retirement
0
-5 000
2005
© OECD/IEA - 2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
By 2030 28% of coal fired (310 GW – some 620 plants) and
13% of gas fired power production will be from plants with CCS
WEO 2007 Cumulative Investments
in Electricity Generation
8
7
$ trillion (2006)
6
5
4
1.2
0.3
2.1
4.2
Renewables
Fossil fuels with CCS
2.9
3
2
Nuclear
0.6
Fossil fuels
3.2
1
2.0
1.5
0.6
0
Reference
Scenario
Alternative Policy 450 Stabilisation
Scenario
Case
CCS absorbs 1.5 trn US$ (20%) of total cumulative investments
(2006-2030) for power generation in 450ppm stabilisation case
© OECD/IEA - 2007
IEA Draft Conclusions and
Recommendations on CCS (1)
For achieving stabilization of CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere globally, CCS is part of
technology portfolios in current scenarios
 Demonstrating CO2 Capture and Storage and
Bridging the Financial Gap

Commit at least 20 industrial size demonstration projects by
2010; start broad deployment by 2020
 Taking Concerted International Action


Build capacity, share information, create financial support
Include CCS in the CDM in December 2008
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Draft Conclusions and
Recommendations on CCS (2)
Create a Value for CO2 for
Commercializing CCS

Governments should introduce appropriate
instruments, such as emissions trading or tax
treatment by 2010
Establishing Legal and Regulatory
Frameworks

Needed by 2010, for safe, large-scale storage of CO2
Communicating with the Public
Critical to CCS deployment
 Needs to be fostered, resources to be dedicated

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Draft Conclusions and
Recommendations on CCS (3)
Infrastructure

Planning needs to be started when pilot projects
become operational. Transboundary effects need to
be taken into account
Retrofit with CO2 Capture

The IEA believes that any developer of a new fossil
fuel power station, considering the future value of
investments, should have regard to what might be
required for retrofit with CCS and should avoid steps
that might make retrofit unnecessarily difficult. Some
developers have adopted such product policies.
Monitoring and Assessment
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Carbon Capture and Storage
Current IEA Deliverables
 Report on Capture-Ready Plants
(IEA GHG Programme - 2007)
 3 workshops on near term opportunities
 Legal Aspects of Storing CO2
(book, launched 22 June 2007)
 CO2 capture and storage: a key CO2
abatement option (book - early 2008)
 Input to key national and international
events
 Recommendations to the G8 in 2008
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Ideas for the Way Forward
IEA will
Provide further technology roadmaps
Assess and monitor implementation
Assist in facilitating implementation
Contribute to international activities
on legal and regulatory issues
Conduct further analysis of potential
and scenarios taking into account
current national programmes
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE