Transcript Document

Hard facts on
atmospheric CO2
concentration,
and
a sure way to
stabilise it???
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Global CO2 emissions from the burning of
fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1750
Gas fuel consumption
Liquid fuel consumption
Solid fuel consumption
Cement production
Gas flaring
(Unit: 109 kg)
1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Global CO2 emissions from the burning of
fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement
30000
25000
20000
(Unit: 109 kg)
15000
10000
5000
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
400
383.7
375
350
(Unit: ppmv)
325
300
275
1750
1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Global temperature (land meteorological stations)
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/gl_land.gif
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R. Shanthini
Global temperature (land + ocean)
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/gl_land_ocean.gif
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Global temperature (North and South)
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/graphics/nhsh.gif
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Global temperature has risen by
o
more than 0.6 C during the last
100 years.
Global temperature has not varied
o
by more than 1 or 2 C during the
past 10,000 years.
Global Warming has begun,
and so has the Climate Change.
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Consequences…………
75% of the ice on Kilimanjaro
has been lost since 1912, and
all ice could vanish soon.
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Consequences…………
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R. Shanthini
Consequences…………
• death of coral reefs
• fewer cubs for polar bears
• spread of dengue and other diseases
• heavy rains & severe draughts
• fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes
• changed rainfall patterns
• warming and aridity
• loss of biodiversity
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Rate of increase of CO2 concentration
3
2.5
(Unit: ppmv/year)
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)
500
475
450
actual value
at 1.5 ppmv/year
at 2.0 ppmv/year
at 2.5 ppmv/year
425
global
temperature
may be up by 2oC
400
375
350
2000
11 Jan 2008
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
R. Shanthini
At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2
increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will
be reached in 2018, and it is
probable that the global temperature
o
would go up by 2 C (compare it with the
0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF).
-Accelerated Climate Change
-Mass extinctions
-Ecosystems breakdowns
-Large scale discontinuities
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Some say, forget about the 2oC.
The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2.
It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly
twice the pre-industrial value),
which we may reach not.
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)
650
600
550
actual value
at 1.5 ppmv/year
at 2.0 ppmv/year
at 2.5 ppmv/year
500
450
We are lucky.
Are we?
400
350
2000
11 Jan 2008
2025
2050
Year
2075
2100
R. Shanthini
How to stop further global
warming, climate change, and
the terrible consequences of
increased CO2 concentrations
in the atmosphere?
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Option 1: Increase the use of
carbon sinks (such as forests
where 70% of all photosynthesis
occurs).
But, we replace our forests with
cities, highways & golf courses.
Stop destroying forests,
and grow more trees.
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The forest cover is already too small
to help reducing global warming.
How long does it take to grow
a tree like this?
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R. Shanthini
Option 2: Change to non-CO2
emitting energy sources
What are they?
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables (Geothermal, Solar,
Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass
and Biogas)
Muscle Power
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Energy from sustainably managed
renewable sources
Solar energy
Wind energy
Hydropower
Ocean energy
Geothermal
Biomass &
organic waste
Biomass &
organic waste
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Photovoltaic
thermal
waves, tides
heat
heat
DC electricity
AC electricity, hot water,
space heating etc.
AC electricity
AC electricity
AC electricity
AC electricity, hot water,
space heating etc.
heat, organic fuels
AC electricity, hot water,
space heating etc.
Ulf Bossel – October
2005
R. Shanthini
Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU)
175
Petroleum
150
Coal
125
100
Dry Natural Gas
75
Hydroelectric Power
50
25
0
1980
Nuclear Electric
Power
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
Electric Power from
Renewables
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
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Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
50%
Petroleum
45%
40%
Coal
35%
30%
Dry Natural Gas
25%
20%
Hydroelectric Power
15%
10%
Nuclear Electric
Power
5%
0%
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
Electric Power from
Renewables
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
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R. Shanthini
Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1980
Fossil fuel
Nuclear Electric Power
Hydroelectric Power
Electric Power from Renewables
1985
1990
Year
1995
enlarge
2000
2005
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
Global Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
8%
6%
4%
Hydroelectric Power
Nuclear Electric Power
Electric Power from Renewables
2%
0%
1980
1985
1990
Year 1995
2000
2005
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
There is no immediate
financial benefits for a
switch to renewable
energy in the profitoriented energy markets.
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Option 3: Reduce Population
More people
More pollution
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R. Shanthini
in 2004
If you are in USA,
you will be lighting
15 bulbs, each
with 100 W power
If you are in China,
you will be lighting
2 bulbs, each with
100 W power
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100%
Low income
80%
60%
Lower middle
income
40%
Upper middle
income
20%
High income
0%
CO2 (metric
tons per capita)
in 2003
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Population
GDP per
capita, PPP
(const 2000
International $)
R. Shanthini
Should not we rethink
about economic growth
(increasing GDP per
capita), at any cost?
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini
The supreme Greek God Zeus
told Prometheus:
“You may give men such
gifts as are suitable, but
you must not give them
fire for that belongs to
the Immortals.”
– Roger Lancelyn Green
Tales of the Greek Heroes
Puffin Classics
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R. Shanthini
Option 4 to stabilise
atmospheric CO2 concentration?
Think about it and come
up with ideas. By the
way, it would make a
very good project for
the sustainable
development course.
11 Jan 2008
R. Shanthini