Transcript Slide 1

Census data, the COAG data
and spatial analysis
Matthew James
Outline
•
The COAG targets and Census data
•
Place-based analysis and the Census
•
Analysis that is only possible with the Census
Targets to Close the Gap
•
To close the gap in life expectancy within a generation;
•
To halve the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five within a decade;
•
To ensure all Indigenous four-year olds in remote communities have access to early childhood
education within five years;
•
To halve the gap in reading, writing and numeracy achievements for Indigenous children within a
decade;
•
To halve the gap for Indigenous students in year 12 equivalent attainment by 2020;
•
To halve the gap in employment outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians within
a decade.
Measurement
• Life expectancy is measured through both census and mortality
data
• The under 5 mortality target is measured with mortality data
• The Early childhood access target will be measured by a new
collection being developed by the ABS but Census data will be
important for the denominator
• The reading, writing and numeracy targets are measured with
NAPLAN data
Measurement
• The baseline for the employment target is the NATSISS but the
Census is a key source
• The main source for the year 12 or equivalent target is the Census
as the population group – 20-24 year olds is relatively small which
means that survey data has high sampling error
•
The baseline for the employment target is the NATSISS but the
Census is a key data source.
Performance Indicators and the NIRA
• There are 27 indicators in the NIRA much more than the targets
themselves. Some of these indicators are progress indicators such
as smoking rates while others are proxies.
• For example, while the life expectancy target can only be directly
measured every 5 years – mortality data are available annually
The Census and the NIRA
• Of the 27 indicators the census is the main source for 3
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Year 12 attainment target itself
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The Proportion of Indigenous 18-24 year olds engaged in
full-time employment, education or training at or above
Certificate III
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The proportion of 20-64 year olds with or working toward
post-school qualifications in Cert III or above.
The Census and the NIRA
• But estimates of the residential population are denominators for a
total of 11 indicators.
• The Census is clearly critical for monitoring progress against the
COAG targets.
The Census and Small Area data
• Much of the focus in Indigenous policy requires data to be split by
remoteness area – options for this can be limited with survey data
• Importance of local baseline studies
- Fahcsia Baseline Community Profiles
- Detailed baseline mapping reports for the 29 RSD communities
The Census and Small Area data
• For remote Indigenous communities the Census is a key data
source but at times the undercount can affect data quality.
• Census a key source for local data on employment, educational
attainment, the age structure and provides some useful
information on mobility
• The Census compliments other administrative data including
hospitalisation data, school attendance data and NAPLAN data
• Without the Census community profiles would be very limited
The Census is critical for time series
analysis
• The Census is the only real source for long-term time series
analysis as the surveys do not go back far enough.
• For much analysis you need time series data.
• Often trends are only evident over long periods
• The term baseline can use to confusion
Urbanisation
• The proportion of the Indigenous population in population of
centres of 1,000 or more has changed massively in the last 40
years
• In 1971 just over 44% of the Indigenous population lived in
population centres of 1000, or more people
• By 2006 this proportion stood at 76% Note these data should not
be conflated with data on remoteness area
% of the Indigenous Population in Urban areas
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Why has this happened?
• Internal migration
• An increasing propensity over time to identify as Indigenous
• The so called ‘error of closure’ accounted for 50% of population
growth between 1991 and 1996 and 31% between 1996 and 2001
much of this is concentrated in urban areas
• For the period 2001 to 2006 the error of closure was small
• You cannot understand Indigenous demography without
understanding intermarriage patterns.
• Births to non Indigenous mothers are important
Employment Rate, Age 15-64, 1971 to 2006
80.0%
non-Indigenous
Indigenous
70.0%
65.8%
64.3%
65.8%
66.2%
64.9%
64.3%
71.7%
68.0%
60.0%
48.0%
50.0%
45.2%
42.6%
40.0%
42.5%
43.2%
38.6%
37.3%
34.3%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Indigenous Employment Rates, by Sex, 15-64, 1971 to 2006
70.0%
66.2%
Male
Female
59.0%
60.0%
53.0%
49.9%
49.0%
50.0%
48.5%
46.6%
44.0%
43.2%
38.3%
40.0%
35.7%
30.9%
30.0%
26.3%
26.0%
24.0%
25.2%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Pattern more stark if CDEP Excluded
Indigenous employment rate by sex
70.0%
66.2%
60.0%
Male
Female
CDEP Excluded, 1996,
2001, 2006
59.0%
49.0%
50.0%
46.6%
46.1%
44.0%
41.7%
39.0%
38.9%
40.0%
30.9%
31.1%
32.4%
30.0%
26.3%
26.0%
24.0%
25.2%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
The Employment Gap is low at high education levels, 2006 Census Data
Employment Rate, 15-64
100.0%
Indigenous
Non Indigenous
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
No
educational
attainment
Year 8 or
below
Year 9
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Certificate 1
and 2
Certificate III
& IV
Diploma
Bachelor
Degree Level,
Graduate
Degree and
above
Proportion of Indigenous and Non Indigenous Males with
Post-School Qualifications, 1971 to 2006, Age 20-64
60.0%
Indigenous
Non Indigenous
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Employment Rate, Age 20-64, Males who left School at 14
or Younger
90.0%
Non
Indigenous
Indigenous
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Remoteness area
• 75% of the Indigenous population is in non remote areas
• But ‘gaps’ usually considerably wider in remote areas
• Collectively inner and outer regional areas are more important
than the major cities
• People conflate remoteness with discrete communities
Indigenous employment rates, age 15-64 by
remoteness area, with and without CDEP, 2006
60.0%
With CDEP
Without CDEP
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Major Cities of Australia
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia
Highest level of Educational Attainment Year 9 or below
by Remoteness Area, Indigenous adults (20-64), 2006
60.0%
49.0%
50.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
20.0%
24.9%
25.5%
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
19.2%
10.0%
0.0%
Major Cities of Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia -
Indigenous male employment rates, 15-64
1981 and 2006, CDEP counted as employment
60.0%
1981
2006
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Major Cities of Australia
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia
Indigenous male employment rates, 15-64
1981 and 2006, CDEP not counted as employment
60.0%
1981
2006
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Major Cities of Australia
Inner Regional Australia
Outer Regional Australia
Remote Australia
Very Remote Australia
Conclusion
• Census a key source for the NIRA and the COAG targets
• Census critical for place-based analysis
• Census allows time series analysis back to 1971
• Census has some other advantages over surveys – for example
the inclusion of people in non private dwellings
• Surveys complement the Census – we need both