Transcript Inst & Lib
Centre for Development, Environment & Policy. CeDEP School of Oriental & African Studies Integrating contested aspirations, processes & policy: development as hanging in, stepping up & stepping out Andrew Dorward http://www.soas.ac.uk/staff/staff37115.php Reading, 30 January 2009 1 Integrating contested aspirations, processes & policy: development as hanging in, stepping up & stepping out Introduction Agreements & Disagreements in Development Analysis & Practice Conceptualising development as hanging in, stepping up & stepping out Promoting development dialogue Conclusions 2 Agreements & Disagreements in Development Kanbur (2001): Group A: ‘Finance Ministry’ perspective Group B: ‘Civil Society’ perspective Convergence: importance of health & education, economic growth, externalities & public goods, institutions, more nuanced understandings of complementary roles of state & markets Divergence: empirical evidence on changes in welfare & poverty (‘aggregation’ problems) time horizons, basic market structures, ‘pro-’ & ‘anti-’ growth positions. Polarised negotiations, retreat to simplistic statements Need dialogue, more nuanced but still relatively simple messages & policy prescriptions. 3 Agreements & Disagreements in Development But …… Fundamental differences in underlying understandings of the goals of, constraints to, & processes for development? How can dialogue around relatively simple messages be constructed when development & differences in perspectives of development are nuanced & complex? Fundamental ‘civil society’ challenges to neo-liberal views? constraints to growth, processes of global & local change, interpretations of history, goals of development 4 Sustainability Limits to growth? mineral & energy stocks, biodiversity & climate change; globalisation of growth & consumer life styles unsustainable …. …..but technical & institutional innovation have addressed similar problems in the past & will again … …..but scale & externalities too large, consumer & multinational interests too entrenched, costs of environmental change too heavily borne by poor radical rethink needed on growth & development itself. 5 Globalisation Opens up poorer countries & people to exploitation by TNCs & developed countries, exploitation of natural resources for low prices, destruction of local industry from dumping…… …..but trade & liberalised markets allow specialisation & gains from competitive efficiency outweighing losses, trade a key driver of growth, globalisation inevitable & desirable….. ……but gains from specialisation depend on competition & balanced power & property rights absent from developing country markets; developing countries have gained from trade if also pursuing protectionist policies: many aspects of globalisation not inevitable or desirable. 6 Development Neo-liberals: consistent use of theory & evidence on main historical economic growth & poverty reduction – civil society views ignore these, with inconsistent theories that never yield lasting gain. Civil society: local success stories with wider uptake limited by neo-liberal domination of political economy – neo-liberals use inconsistent theory & evidence on historical processes of unsustainable economic growth & material benefit for the few & destitution for the many Each side selective learning & generalisations ignores evidence against own arguments ignores difficulties in scaling up or out of success. 7 Second European Forum on Sustainable Rural Development, Berlin, June 2007 WDR presentation Three worlds: (a) poor agriculture based economies, rural poverty, (b) transforming economies, low agric GDP, rural poverty (c) urbanised economies, more urban poverty. evolutionary path: intensification & commercialisation of initially smallholder agriculture driving & sustaining non-farm growth. similar processes needed today removal of agricultural trade distortions & protection making local product, factor & service markets work better; promotion & empowerment of producer organisations; greater quantity & quality of investment in public goods; very selective, market smart, temporary subsidies & food staple protection sometimes new thinking & investment in GMO & conventional research new investments in carbon trading & climate change adaptation & more efficient & agric/ food friendly biofuel systems fundamentals of market development, good governance, sound macro-economic management. 8 Second European Forum on Sustainable Rural Development, Civil society: neo-imperialist experience & interests in WDR overly simplistic, gross reductionism, conflation/ selective analysis of historical states & processes with desirable states & processes. marginalisation of rural poor through globalisation & privatisation call for genuine new thinking, aid & policies that ‘do not harm those living their lives autonomously as peasant food producers’. neo-liberal simplifications’ reliance on industrialised agriculture, privatised resources, & world markets for feeding people. African Green Revolution doubly discredited: past African implementation failures past pro-rich (not pro-poor) outcomes in Asia. Alternative vision: complex sets of sovereign trade & investment policies rights based approach to land, food sovereignty, small family farms, local production systems & markets sustainable ecological & multi-functional agriculture, local resources & processing in vibrant rural based national economies. participation & representation by rural people, not donor driven agendas. 9 Second European Forum on Sustainable Rural Development, Donors’ response: partial & biased analysis overlooking of the pro-poor benefits of the Asian Green revolution through raising wages & lowering real food prices? challenges of population growth & falling land holdings / soil fertility? limited scope for organic soil fertility measures? Growing urban food demands ? younger populations’ urban aspirations & agricultural alienation ? economic benefits of concentrations of economic activities in large cities.? legitimacy of emerging smallholders organisations claiming to speak for poor rural people buying food& ignoring poor urban people’s interests? romantic view of peasant agriculture – ignoring limited incomes & mass movements out of peasant agriculture in developed economies. alternative vision doubly discredited: past failures with similar approaches past failures in scaling up success 10 Resolutions? validity in many aspects of each side’s critiques of the other’s historical analysis & future vision?.... – but if both critiques are valid then neither vision is valid…. Four related ways to move forward 1. more nuanced analysis of historical successes & failures in development; 2. recognition of the sustainable development paradox & state coordination development dilemma development leads to rising wages & labour costs which inhibit labour intensive repairs & recycling & encourage replacement of human energy by mechanical or electrical energy market failures & the need for government coordination are greatest in the poorest countries where government capacity to provide such coordination is most limited, 3. a framework that promotes dialogue between & integration of neoliberal & alternative development paradigms. 4. A radical rethink and ‘new way’ 11 A framework for dialogue Neo-liberal & alternative conceptualisations of development disagree about processes but agree focus on: people’s production & consumption activities & assets, micro economic foundations of neoclassical economics capabilities & multiple livelihood activities & assets decreasing livelihood vulnerability, increasing livelihood productivity (and incomes), changes in livelihood activities (increasing importance of non-farm activities). Conceptualisation of peoples’ livelihood aspirations maintain & protect their current wealth & welfare against threats of stresses & shocks hanging in advance their wealth & welfare. expanding their existing activities stepping up moving into new activities – stepping out 12 Development as Hanging in, Stepping up & Stepping Out Technical & institutional innovation Capitals / Assets Social Human Natural Physical Financial Commercialisation Diversification ………. Hanging Stepping out in Provincial Municipality Community Household Individual Structural transformations Economic, social, demographic, institutional, political, …… Spatial, sectoral, distributional Food, environmental services Stepping up National Technology, skills, health Differentiation Accumulation Specialisation Institutions, relations, politics Regional Convertible assets/ savings cash Livelihood strategies & transformations Infrastructure, equipment, etc Global Promoting development dialogue? Valid model of development (successes & failures)? Scope & breadth, theoretical, logical, empirical consistency Builds on areas of agreement between the different paradigms? micro- foundations; decreasing livelihood vulnerability & increasing livelihood productivity; changing livelihood activities. different types & roles of capital; accumulation, differentiation, diversity, specialisation, commercialisation & trade; trade-offs between security & growth; multi-scale processes & linkages; structural change; critical interplay with technical & institutional innovation & political economy. disagreements in emphasis on different processes, outcomes & interactions, & normative values ‘bottom up’, from poor people’s aspirations, strategies, successes & failures - for themselves & their children; context of wider processes of change (often over-ride local decisions & planning) Clear, accessible & opens up space for discussion? 14 Promoting development dialogue? (2) Simple (!) not simplistic; flexible, transferable across scales of analysis, disciplines, dimensions & sectors; accommodates diversity; inclusive, encouraging engagement from different perspectives. Strong experiential foundation Terminology describes processes, outcomes, and/or aspirations but more concrete & less value laden than ‘growth’ or ‘development’. Diversity of origins (in microeconomics, sustainable livelihoods, new institutional economics, political economy, economic geography) Practical uses in analysis & communication promote dialogue Development of indicators & methods for assessing contributions of small livestock keeping to poor peoples’ livelihoods Methodological development in assessing poverty impacts of agricultural research & other interventions on poverty Conceptualisation of development policies & priorities for LFA Social protection policies & interventions Making markets work for the poor Climate change; sequencing development investments; health, education & other service policy analysis & design; organisational strategies; input subsidy, food security, trade etc policies 15 Low % farm income Wealthy, thick markets, low risk, good rural-urban rural-rural Market Access D F stepping out E poor X hanging in? Poor, thin markets, high risk A: Staples B: Trad. cash crops C: Trad. hortic. D: Modern hortic. E: Trad. L/stock F: Modern L/stock X: L.F.A. C stepping up B A High % farm income low high Agricultural Productivity Potential 16 Social Protection Policy Agriculture Policy AGRICULTURE & LIVELIHOODS Phase 1. Establishing the basics Phase 2. Kick starting markets Roads / Irrigation Systems / Research / Extension / (Land Reform) Reliable finance, input & output markets Extensive, low productivity agriculture. Hanging in Profitable intensive technology. inhibited by lack of input, finance & output markets Stepping up Effective private markets SP from agriculture? SP for agriculture? Sectoral market instruments Effective farmer input demand & surplus production. Stepping out Phase 3. Withdrawal (non-agric ?) Non market instruments Increased finance & input demand & produce supply. Nonagric. linkages. SP independent of agriculture? Micro market instruments 17 Livelihood strategies & asset/ market/ activity functions Livelihood strategy ‘Maintenance’ or ‘Hanging in’ ‘Stepping up’ ‘Stepping out’ Asset/ market / activity functions Consumption Production / income: Seasonal buffering Insurance Accumulation Production / income Accumulation Changing aspirations, strategies & opportunities Importance of markets & of wider development processes 18 Market & alternative exchange roles in livelihoods – changing aspirations, strategies & opportunities Livelihood strategy Asset/ market / activity functions Relevant assets/ markets & asset/market based activities Possible alternatives ‘Maintenance’ or ‘Hanging in’ Consumption Food & other purchases (including household services) Wage employment; sales from petty trading, services, farming or NR based activities; input purchases. Financial savings/ lending, borrowing; asset sales; labour sales Insurance; borrowing; asset sales; labour sales Asset sales & purchases Subsistence production, domestic labour; social relations Subsistence; transfers/ remittances Production / income: Seasonal buffering Insurance ‘Stepping up’ Accumulation Production / income Stepping out Accumulation Asset stores; social relations Asset stores; social relations Skills, livestock, tree or household growth; social relations; power Wage employment; sales from petty Transfers/ remittances trading, services, farming or NR based activities; input purchases. Asset sales & purchases Social relations 19 Promoting development dialogue? (2) Simple (!) not simplistic; flexible, transferable across scales of analysis, disciplines, dimensions & sectors; accommodates diversity; inclusive, encouraging engagement from different perspectives. Strong experiential foundation Terminology describes processes, outcomes, and/or aspirations but more concrete & less value laden than ‘growth’ or ‘development’. Diversity of origins (in microeconomics, sustainable livelihoods, new institutional economics, political economy, economic geography) Practical uses in analysis & communication promote dialogue Development of indicators & methods for assessing contributions of small livestock keeping to poor peoples’ livelihoods Methodological development in assessing poverty impacts of agricultural research & other interventions on poverty Conceptualisation of development policies & priorities for LFA Social protection policies & interventions Making markets work for the poor Climate change; sequencing development investments; health, education & other service policy analysis & design; organisational strategies; input subsidy, food security, trade etc policies 20 Using the framework for the Berlin problem? Start with hanging in, stepping up & stepping out strategies Validity as historical & current aspirations in rural societies? Empirical evidence of achievement (and lack of achievement)? Processes, drivers & impediments of different changes? Impacts on different types of people - rural, urban & transitioning? Multi-level structural transformations, technical & institutional innovations, & changes in capitals or assets in farm & non-farm activities. Changing consumer & producer interests, Sustainability of different processes in terms of their impacts on different kinds of capital needed at different scales of aggregation. Questions about ‘livelihood’ strategies & trajectories at different scales of analysis (& associated changes in capitals, processes of innovation & structural transformation) Examine WDR ‘three worlds’, agric. industrialisation & intensification, local versus global markets, diversification & specialisation, trajectories of rural & urban change & relations, climate change Different paradigms’ strengths, insights & weaknesses Cannot overcome entrenched narrow self interest (expose them?) or fundamentally different value systems - help identify common interests? 21 Conclusions Development as hanging in, stepping up & stepping out - can it integrate contested aspirations, processes & policy? Simple but sophisticated framework Can provide space for dialogue and re-examination of apparently opposing perspectives. Does not directly address Kanbur’s subtext: behind the ‘debate’ are vested interests seeking to use neo-liberal arguments to control the policy agenda to protect national interests Can help expose them, undermine more obviously untenable arguments, strengthen more genuine seekers of development? Dorward, A (2009) 'Integrating contested aspirations, processes and policy: development as hanging in, stepping up and stepping out.' Development Policy Review 27 (2): 131-146 (in Press, March 2009) http://www.soas.ac.uk/staff/staff37115.php Dorward, A. R. (2007). Livelihood strategies, policies and sustainable poverty reduction in less favored areas: a dynamic perspective in R. Rueben, A. Kuyvenhoven and J. Pender (ed) Sustainable Poverty Reduction in LessFavored Areas. Wallingford, CABI. Kanbur, R. (2001). "Economic policy, distribution and poverty: the nature of disagreements." World Development 29(6): 1083-1094. 22 Centre for Development, Environment & Policy. CeDEP School of Oriental & African Studies Integrating contested aspirations, processes & policy: development as hanging in, stepping up & stepping out Andrew Dorward http://www.soas.ac.uk/staff/staff37115.php Reading, 30 January 2009 23