Transcript Planning for Drought: Moving from Crisis to Risk Management

Reducing Vulnerability to
Drought through Mitigation
and Preparedness
Report to the Inter-Agency Task Force for Disaster Reduction
Sixth Meeting
Geneva, Switzerland
24-25 October 2002
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, Director
National Drought Mitigation Center
International Drought Information Center
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
U.S.A.
Percent Area of the United States
in Severe and Extreme Drought
January 1895–July 2002
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
Based on data from the National Climatic Data Center/NOAA
Drought differs from
other natural hazards
Slow-onset, creeping phenomena (early
warning systems, impact assessment,
response)
Absence of universal definition (leads to
confusion and inaction)
Severity is best described through multiple
indicators and indices
Impacts are non-structural and spread over
large areas (makes assessment and response
difficult; mitigation actions less obvious)
RESULT, progress on drought preparedness
has been slow
Common Types
of Drought Impacts
Economic
Social
Environmental
Trends in Drought Impacts
Impacts are increasing in response to
growing vulnerability resulting from
increased pressure on limited water
resources, increasing population and
many other factors.
Post-impact response increases
vulnerability.
Impacts differ within and between
countries, reflecting who and what is at
risk and why.
Trends in Drought Impacts
Impacts are escalating in developed and
developing countries, but the types of
impacts differ.
More humid, less drought-prone regions
often illustrate greater vulnerability.
Developed countries have more
resources to respond, but may be no
better prepared to deal with drought in a
proactive manner.
The problem of definition
No universal definition
Impact/sector specific; region specific
Drought types
Meteorological
Agricultural
Hydrological
Socio-economic
Drought types can occur separately or
simultaneously
Spatial Extent
Key Drought Indicators
Climate variables (e.g., precip., temp.)
Reservoir and lake levels
Soil moisture
Ground water
Snow pack
Stream flow
Vegetation
Forecasts
Common Drought Indices
Percent of Normal
Deciles
Palmer Drought Index
PDSI, PHDI, CMI
Surface Water Supply Index
Standardized Precipitation Index
Vegetation indices (NDVI, VCI, SVI)
U.S. Drought Monitor
Composite index approach
Shortcomings of DEWS
Data networks
Data sharing
Early warning system products
Drought forecasts
Drought monitoring tools
Integrated drought/climate/water supply
monitoring
Impact assessment methodologies
Delivery systems
Global early warning systems
Components of Drought
for Risk Management
(natural event)
Climatology,
Probabilities,
Forecasts
(social factors)
Population growth and shifts
Urbanization
Technology
Land use practices
Environment degradation
Water use trends
Government policies
Environmental awareness
Drought—a vision of the future
Increased frequency and severity of
meteorological droughts
Increased impacts associated with
increased vulnerability
Combination of the two—increasing risk
because of greater frequency of
meteorological drought and increased
vulnerability and greater impacts
Critical Issues for ISDR
Improve collection, processing, and
availability of meteorological and
hydrological data
Improve predictive capacities and use of
forecasts in decision making
Improve understanding of drought
causes at regional and national scales
Critical Issues for ISDR
Improve understanding of drought
climatology and drought patterns
Inventory climate and water resource
indicators and indices
Develop indicators, indices, and products
for hazard assessment
Develop decision support models for end
users and encourage feedback of impact
assessment products
Critical Issues for ISDR
Develop and disseminate risk and vulnerability
assessment tools
Disseminate drought planning methodologies
Integrate local or indigenous coping
mechanisms as a part of drought risk reduction
Create drought impact reduction strategies as
an integral part of drought preparedness plans
Develop drought policies at the regional and
national level
Critical Issues for ISDR
Assess availability of skilled human
resources needed for drought
preparedness planning
Educate policy makers and the public on
the need for improved drought
preparedness as an integral part of
water resources management
Critical Issues for ISDR
Support creation of regional drought
preparedness networks to enhance
regional capacity in sharing lessons
learned
Enhance regional and international
collaboration
Recognize the role of WMO, ISDR,
NMHSs, and regional/national
institutions in drought early warning and
preparedness
Global Drought Preparedness Network
GOAL:
To help nations build greater institutional
capacity to cope with drought by
promoting risk management and
sharing lessons learned on drought
monitoring, mitigation, and
preparedness.
Building Regional and Global Partnerships
Global Drought Preparedness Network
Individually, many nations will be
unable to improve drought coping
capacity.
Collectively, through global, regional,
and national partnerships, we can
share information and experiences
to reduce the impacts of drought.
Regional Network Objectives
Must be region specific—possible objectives are
to promote
exchange of information
the use of common indices or indicators
for early warning
data availability
scientific collaboration
drought policy development
drought planning methods and mitigation
programs and actions
http://drought.unl.edu
Regional Drought Preparedness Networks
SAsia
Med
SSA
EAsia
GDPN
NAm
(NDMC)
CAm
Europe
SAm
Next Steps: Regional Networks
Select one or more regions as
demonstration projects
Identify potential sources of financial
support for each regional network
Organize a launching workshop for each
region involving key institutions
Identify scope, objectives, and activities
for each regional network
Develop strategies for coordinating
network development—what is the role
of the NDMC?
Regional networks can facilitate
development of drought early
warning systems, preparedness
plans, and policies aimed at
vulnerability reduction.
Thanks for your attention!
Visit the NDMC
http://drought.unl.edu
[email protected]