Transcript Times-Markal

Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY
Brazilian Oil, Gas and Reneweble
Fuels Policies
João José de Nora Souto
Deputy Secretary of Oil, Natural Gas and
Renewable Fuels
Quito – 13th July 2011
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Guidelines for the Brazilian Energy Policy
Energy Supply Security
Reasonable Tariff Policy
Service availability for the entire population
Regulatory framework stability
Strengthening of planning
Energy matrix diversification and renewables usage
National energy integration
National technological development
Concern about social-environmental constraints
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Ministry of Mines and Energy
3
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Brazilian Energy Supply Matrix (%)
37.9
31.0
2009
2019
243,7 Mtoe
47,2% renewable
429,9 Mtoe
48,4 renewable
5.8 % p.a.
21.5
18.0
%
15.2
12.4
12.1
8.8
4.8
6.9
10.1 9.2
3.8
1.4 1.6
OIL
NATURAL
GAS
COAL
NUCLEAR
HYDRO
TRADITIONAL SUGARCANE
BIOMASS
PRODUCTS
5.4
OTHERS
Energy (Mtoe)
World 2008: 12.267 → Brazil 2009: 2,0%
World 2020: 14.882 → Brazil 2019: 2,9%
GDP Growth: 4.7 % per annum
Source: PDE 2019, IEA Data Services - World Energy Balances and IEO 2010/DOE
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
E&P Activity in Brasil - 2010
 Total sedimentary area:
7.5 million sq km
 2.8 million sq km of E&P
efective area (37.3% from total)
 Granted area: 344.6 th sq km
(12.3% from efective area)
 376 exploratory blocks
 392 fields in production phase
 7 blocks at Onerous Assignment
 80 E&P concessionaries
Source: ANP,
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Oil & Gas Statistics
Petroleum: Expected Investments E&P: R$ 232,91 billion - 2010-2014
 Proved Reserves (December, 31 - 2010):
14.25 billion barrels (+11% over 2009)
 Production (2010):
2.14 million barrels/day
 Consumption (2010):
2.23 million barrels/day
 Imports (2010)*:
0.34 million barrels/day
 Exports (2010)*:
0.63 million barrels/day
 Refine capacity (2010):
2 million barrels/day
 Reserve / Production Rate - R/P:
18.3 years
Natural Gas: Expected Investments: R$ 8,96 billion - 2010-2014
 Proved Reserves (December, 31 - 2010):
423.03 billion m³ (14.9 tcf, +16% over 2009)
 National Production of NG (2010):
62.84 million m³/day
 Consumption in Process, Reinjection, Flare (2010):
34.81 million m³/day
 National Gas made available to the market (2010):
28.04 million m³/day
 Imports (transport consumption deleted - 2010)*:
33.66 million m³/day
Total supply of natural gas (2010):
61.70 million m³/day
 Reserve / Production Rate - R/P:
22.8 years
Source: MME 2011 and ANP 2011 (www.anp.gov.br)
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
National Oil Production and Demand – 2010 to 2019
Oil Prodction x Demand [thousand bbl/day]
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0.000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Produção Petróleo
2.137
2.507
3.211
3.494
3.742
3.989
4.362
4.739
4.940
5.113
Demanda Principais Derivados
2.230
2.038
2.083
2.160
2.247
2.324
2.415
2.513
2.621
2.721
Main Derivates: GLP, Nafta, Gasoline, QAV, Diesel, Fuel Oil and Coke.
Source: PDE 2010-2019 and ANP, 2011
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Supply and Demand for Oil Products (Kbbl/day)
5113
5000
Surplus
96%
4000
3000
2000
2721
Maximum deficit
between 1970 and 2009
1956
1843
Surplus
6%
1089
1000
deficit
85%
163
0
1979
2009
Produção
Supply
Demand de derivados
Demanda
Note: % surplus and deficits = net external trade divided by internal demand
In 2019, net imports will be around 2,200 Kbbl/day
2019
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Natural Gas Supply and Demand
180.000
180
160
160.000
m3/dia
mil m³/day
million
140
140.000
120
120.000
100.000
100
80.000
80
60
60.000
40
40.000
20
20.000
00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Anos
Térmicas Bicombustível
Térmicas Gás
Demanda Não-Termelétrica
Oferta Total
Northern Region not included
2016
2017
2018
2019
Demanda termelétrica média
Source: PDE 2010-2019
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Projections (Mm³/day)
250
230.8
190.4
200
deficit
13%
190.4
Surplus
21%
166.4
150
100
deficit
28%
80.8
57.9
50
0
2009
2019 (a)
Produção
Supply
2019 (b)
Demand de derivados
Demanda
Note: % surplus and deficits = net external trade divided by internal demand
(a) Expected production, based on known reserves (imports of 24 Mm³/day)
(b) Expected production, based on known and to be discovered reserves (net exports of 40 Mm³/day)
Ministry of Mines and Energy
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Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Main Oil & Gas Discoveries in Pre-salt
Granted area: 42 th sq km (28%)
Cession area: 3.,74 th sq km(2.5%)
Estimated volumes
(12/2010)
Parque das Baleias
1.5 to 2 biboe
25.3 to 33.8 billion boe
Franco
2.0 to 5.5 bi boe
Entorno de Iara
0.6 to 0.8 bi boe
Florim
0.1 to 0.4 bi boe
Iara
3 to 4 bi boe
Guará
1.1 to 2 bi boe
Sul de Guará
0.1 to 0.3 bi boe
Libra
7 to 8 bi boe
Sul e NE de Tupi
0.5 to 0.7 bi boe
Peroba
1.1 to 1.8 bi boe
Lula - Cernambi
8.3 bi boe
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
E&P Legislation
• Law nº 9,478/1997 – Petroleum Law, establishes concession rules for outside
of Pre-salt polygon
• Law nº 12,351/2010 – Establishes the use of production sharing contracts for
oil and gas exploration and production in Pre-salt polygon and areas with
strategic or high potential for oil and creatse the Social Fund to receive the
results
– Petrobras will be the only operator at new contract areas (PSC) in the Pre-salt polygon ,
with at least 30% of work interest in the contracted consortium
– Government will either contract Petrobras directly or other companies through bidding
– Contract is under construction with collaboration of oil companies associations. At the
end it will be object of public debate
– Block offers at PSC model will take into account the national policy for oil exportation
and the national industry for oil and gas sector capacity to attend the requirements of
the Local Content policy
– Social Fund - resources will be invested in profitable activities in Brazil’s or foreign
countries. Profits will be used in national projects to reduce poverty, and to improve
education, public health, culture, sports, science and technology, environmental issues
and to mitigate climate changes
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Natural Gas Law - Overview
Law nº 11,909/2009 and Decree nº 7,832/2010
Establishment of a new framework for natural gas transport activities
Main goals:
• Increase investments in natural gas exploration, production and infrastructure
• Expansion of Brazilian natural gas market
New concession contracts
should bring more
competition in the transport
sector
Competition in transport will
bring more investments in
E&P, resulting in more
investments in infrastructure,
creating a virtuous circle
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Local Content Policy
• Concessionaries operating in Brazil must grant equal opportunities
to local suppliers, giving them preference based on competitiveness
– Contract clause establishing minimum percentage for local supply of
goods and services
• Aims to enhance the participation share of national industries, in a
competitive and sustainable way, at local and foreign projects for
petroleum industry
• Local suppliers development will be necessary to attend petroleum
industry contract compromises
• Brazilian and foreign companies associations to produce locally are
encouraged
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Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Oil and Gas Rounds
• 11th Bidding Round for exploration blocks in
concession modality planned to November,
2011
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• 1st Bidding Round in production
sharing
modality planned to take place by the end of
2011
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Ministry of Mines and Energy
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Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Refining Instaled Capacity Expansion (Kbbl/day)
3,500
3,328
3,000
2,000
+68%
2,428
2,500
2,044
+23%
1,500
Oil Production in 2019
= 5,113 Kbbl/day
1,000
500
0
2009
2019 (a)
2019 (b)
(a) Base Line: +38 expansion of the current refineries + 230 Abreu e Lima Refinery
(PE) + 150 COMPERJ Refinery (RJ) + 30 Potiguar Refinery (RN)
(b) Premium refinery trajectory: base line + 300 (CE) + 600 (MA)
Ministry of Mines and Energy
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Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Bioenergy
Bioethanol
Biodiesel
The ethanol production will rise from 27,9
million m³ (2010) to 73,3 million m³ (2020).
Dec. 2004: Launch of the National Program for the
production and use of Biodiesel
The usage of ethanol allows Brazil to avoid,
yearly, around 10% of the Green House Gas
emissions.
Growing use of Biodiesel contributes to reduce
urban pollution, improving life quality of the
citizens.
Flex-fuel vehicles represent almost 90% of the
new vehicles licensed (2011)
Brazil is already the world’s 3rd largest consumer
(after Germany and France)
The productivity of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil
is the highest in the world (6,800 l/ha).
Accomplished in 2010: Obligatory addition of 5% of
biodiesel on fossil diesel.
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Ethanol and Biodiesel Projections – 2011 to 2020
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Sustainable Biofuels Expansion
Sugar Cane Agro- ecological Zoning
BRAZIL – Qualified Areas (P, R, M) in Livestock (Ap) and Agriculture (Ag)
Due to environmental reasons, the bill
would effectively make 92.5% of Brazil’s
national territory off-limits for sugarcane
farming and processing.
Excluded biomas
P – Areas qualified as “Preferential”
R – Areas qualified as “Regular”
M – Areas qualified as “Marginal”
• Suitable areas identified sum up to 64 million
hectares (or 7.5% of the territory)
• Currently, sugarcane for ethanol corresponds to 4
million hectares or 1% of arable lands.
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Sustainable Biofuels Expansion
Palm Oil Agro-ecological Zoning
•
•
Restricts 86,4% of the apt areas in the
agroclimatic point of view and 96,3%
of the Brazilian territory
Potential for sustainable expansion:
31,8 million ha
•
•
•
Plantation in areas with previous
human activities identified until 2008
only
Fobids native vegetation deforestation
Orient the recovery of degraded lands
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Latest Biofuel Regulations
• Publication of the MP 532/2011 by the Executive:
 With this regulation the ethanol is no more considered an
agricultural good. Now ethanol is considered a energetic
product.
 The measure gives the ANP (regulatory agency) the
competence to regulate, authorize and supervise the activities
related to production, importation, exportation, storage,
transportation, distribution and commercialization of ethanol.
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Ministry of Mines and Energy
Investment Opportunities
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
2019 Energy Plan: Investments
Energy Investments
Billion US$
(%)
Electricity
Power Generation
Transmission
127
22.5
Oil and Gas
398
70.6
Biofuels
39
6.9
TOTAL
564
100.0
104
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18.4
4.1
ENERGY: Makes up about 2.2% of GDP and 10.1% of gross fixed
capital formation on the period (2010-2019)
Source: PDE 2019 (MME), R$ 1 = US$ 1,69 (oct. 2010)
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Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
Brazilian Oil & Gas Policies

Ensure the supply of oil and natural gas

Transform Brazil into a net exporter of oil and its derivatives

Develop the national industry of suppliers of goods and services for the oil
sector

Auctions for Oil Exploration Blocks


Realization of Round 11 in Concession System

Realization of Round 1 in Production Sharing Regime
Local Content Policy


Ensure that investments in the development of hydrocarbon production in Brazil result
in sustainable growth and competitiveness of domestic industry
Natural Gas Sector

Regulation of the Natural Gas Act

Formulation of the Plan for Expansion of Pipeline Network - PEMAT

Assessing the PRE-SALT potential
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
FINAL REMARKS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Brazil has excellent opportunities for oil and gas exploration and production,
presenting growing expectations for both reserves and production
The Brazilian Government wants international oil companies as partners and
not as simple finance investors for the oil field development projects, even at
the Pre-Salt
The pace of bidding rounds in the Pre-Salt Area will depend heavily on local
industry's capacity to provide goods and services required by local content
rules
Foreign companies are encouraged to seek partnerships with local suppliers
and establish manufacturing operations within Brazil
Government has also policies to achieve sustainability in the oil industry,
according to long term goals
The Brazilian Government will at all times give ways to assure and respect
contracts, induce and facilitate the international trade
The Brazilian energetic policies intend to keep increasing the participation of
renewable fuels in its energy mix in accordance to sustainability criteria.
Ministry of Mines and Energy
Secretariat of Energy Planning and Development – SPE
MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY
THANKS!
www.mme.gov.br
João José de Nora Souto
Deputy Secretary of Oil, Natural Gas and
Renewable Fuels
Rio de Janeiro, July 2011