Transcript Celtic Cultures in Transition (4)

Celtic Cultures in
Transition (4)
A Referendum in Scotland?
A Referendum in Scotland?



Norman Davies, historian from the University of
Oxford, considers that the break-up of the United
Kingdom is now inevitable.
Simon Brooks, University of Cardiff, Wales (writing
in Barn): ‘it would be a disaster for Wales if Scotland
obtained independence. Wales would become an
unimportant part of a perverse state called
EnglandWalesNorthernIreland.
And probably Northern Ireland would eventually
become part of the Irish State.
A Referendum in Scotland




This view was also mirrored by the First Minister for
Wales, Carwyn Jones.
Is this the only way ahead?
Certainly, however, the political mood in England
has changed with the advent of devolution since the
1990s.
The dog that finally barked: England as an emerging
political community (Richard Wyn Jones, Guy
Lodge, Ailsa Henderson, Charlie Jeffery) 2012.
England in an age of
devolution


The attitude in England towards devolution
has been (perhaps predictably?) mainly
negative when people are asked about
whether the governance of the UK has
improved or become worse with devolution.
Between 2000 and 2011 people in England
became more negative about devolution and
its effects. Especially where Scotland is
concerned.
England in an age of
devolution


There has for instance been an increase in
those who belief that Scottish members of the
UK Parliament should not vote on matters
only concerning England:
2000 (18%); 2011 (53%) (those who strongly
believe this proposition).
England in an age of
devolution



When asked whether Scotland should pay for
public services from taxes collected in
Scotland, the following figures emerged:
2001 (20%); 2011 (44%) (strongly believed
this).
Also, perhaps even more significantly, there
are changes in the way English people (in
England) define their identity:
England in an age of
devolution




English and not British, 1997 (7%); 2011
(17%)
More English than British, 1997 (17%); 2011
(23%)
Equally English and British, 1997 (45%);
2011 (34%)
More British than English, 1997 (9%); 2011
(7%)
Independence or ‘devo max’?



Is this the only option however?
Does everything have to revolve around a
referendum on independence or are other
options possible that will reflect the new
realities in Scotland, England and Wales?
In fact, the concept of ‘devo max’ has a
strong following, and has also been
discussed since for the last five years.
‘devo max’ for Scotland? What
is it?


‘Devo max’. In a word (or two), this strange
term refers to a situation where (eg) Scotland
would have the maximum number of powers
just short of independence (ie remain in the
UK). Especially important would be the right
to raise considerable taxes, fix taxation rates
and to borrow on the international markets.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics15620565
‘Devo Max’: the idea of it!





Commission on Scottish Devolution
This Commission chaired by Prof. Sir Kenneth
Calman) began its work in 2008. Its purpose was to
review the experience of Scottish devolution since
1998.
Its final report was published in 2009:
Serving Scotland Better: Scotland and the United
Kingdom in the 21st Century
http://www.commissiononscottishdevolution.org.uk/u
ploads/2009-06-12-csd-a5_final-summary_ibook.pdf
Calman’s Report


The committee was set up to review the
provisions of the Scotland Act (1998).
Significantly, they saw their function as
advisors on a number of issues to do with the
Scottish Parliament and to continue to secure
the position of Scotland within the United
Kingdom.
Calman’s Report



They emphasized the ‘social union’ between
Scotland the rest of the UK. But much of their
attention was focussed on financial issues.
The ‘economic union’ therefore becomes a
major issue.
The committee made a number of
recommendations in this area:
Calman’s Report



Part of the Budget of the Scottish Parliament
should now be found from devolved taxation
under its control rather than from grant from
the UK Parliament.
They advocated a new Scottish rate of
income tax.
Yet the structure of the income tax system
…should remain entirely the responsibility of
the UK Parliament.
Calman’s Report



They also recommended an extension in
borrowing powers of the Scottish Parliament.
Intergovernmental reforms were also a major
element in the recommendations of the
committee.
For example: the UK Parliament and
Scottish Parliament should have mechanisms
to communicate with each other.
Calman’s Report


Recommendations were also made by the
committee in relation to the Scottish
Parliament’s position with regard to the EU.
Scottish ministers and the relevant Scottish
Parliament committee should become more
proactive in identifying EU issies of interest to
Scotland…
Calman’s Report


Some recommendations were also made
about the number of restricted powers that
the Scottish Parliament has.
They are mainly lesser issues, eg the
recommendation that the S Parliament
should have the power to determine th elevel
of the national speed limit in Scotland.
The follow-up

The direct result of the Calman Report was to
encourage the Westminster Government to
work on a new Scotland Act in place of the
previous 1998 Act (that had brought about
the Scottish Parliament).
The new Scotland Act 20102011


The Bill will implement recommendations of
the Final Report of the Commission on
Scottish Devolution (the Calman
Commission). 2009
It would make changes to the finances of the
Scottish Parliament, including a new Scottish
rate of income tax, and make a number of
adjustments to the boundary of devolved
responsibilities.
The new Scotland Act 20102011


This new bill has already been through the
House of Commons (Westminster), and has
had its first and second readings in the
House of Lords.
On 26 January 2012, it will go to the
committee stage.
The new (proposed) Scotland
Act 2010-2011


Read Steven Tierney’s analysis of the
content of the new Scotland Bill:
http://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2011/11/23/step
hen-tierney-the-scotland-bill-before-thescottish-parliament/
The new Scotland Act 20102011


At the same time in 2011, the bill came
before the Scottish Parliament for consent
(this is called Legislative Consent Motion).
The Scottish Parliament created a committee
to comment on the bill which supported the
general principles of the bill but asked to see
any amendments made by the Westminster
Parliaments (Commons, Lords), and to have
the opportunity to debate them. This was all
before the elections in Scotland in 2011.
The new Scotland Act 20102011- after the SNP victory.



After the election in Scotland in 2011, and
greatly increased number of seats held by the
now governing SNP, a new committee (to
oversee the new Act) was convened with a
very different membership.
They are now reconsidering the whole issue
of giving the Bill an LCM.
In his speech to the Scottish Parliament 18
May 2011, Alex Salmond (First Minister)
called for:
The new Scotland Act 20102011



Called for ‘improvements’ to the Bill.
Alex Salmond’s speech to the Scottish
Parliament:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Speeches/S
peeches/First-Minister/electionfm2011
Alex Salmond’s speech 18 May
2011.


He specifically outlined six areas for further
improvement: borrowing powers, corporation tax,
the Crown Estate, excise duties, digital
broadcasting and a stronger say in European
policy.
On 13 June 2011, the UK Government announced
proposals to amend the Scotland Bill, and it is with a
complex mix of the published Bill, plus additional
provisions proposed both from Whitehall and the
Scottish Government that the Committee (in
Scotland) is now concerned.
Alex Salmond, MSP



First Minister of
Scotland
Leader of the SNP
From Linlithgow, West
Lothian
Alex Salmond

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC8YGhn
ZWxg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=ends
creen&NR=1&v=x3xIkZcCTYY
Alex Salmond

Salmond is one of the
foremost proponents of
Scottish Independence,
repeatedly calling for a
referendum on the issue.
Salmond has campaigned
on global warming and in
government has committed
Scotland to legislation on
emission reduction and the
generation of renewable
energy..


Other recurring campaign
themes include nuclear
disarmement and
Salmond's strong opposition
to the2003 Invasion of Iraq.
Background in economics.
Referendum

‘Choosing Scotland’s Future’. Draft
Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation
Paper. 2010 SNP

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/30
3348/0095138.pdf
Since the electoral victory in 2011, the idea of
holding a referendum has become
governmental policy.

Referendum



The referendum will be advisory, in that it will
have no legislative effect. However, the
Scottish Government would expect the UK
and Scottish Parliaments and the respective
Governments to listen to the views of the
Scottish people and act on them.
Referendum

Two potential approaches to the first
question: one based on the concept of full
devolution and another based on the limited
recommendations for financial devolution
made by the Commission on Scottish
Devolution (the “Calman Commission”).
Independence proposals




the economy, including decisions on the
currency and the macroeconomic framework;
• investment in education, enterprise and
infrastructure, including transport and
housing;
• the environment, energy and climate
change;
• the taxation and benefits system;
Independence proposals








the full range of public services, including benefits and health;
• foreign affairs, defence and security matters. For example,
Scotland would
continue membership of the European Union, representing its
own national interests in the same way as other member states,
influencing directly the overall
direction of European Union policy. An independent Scotland
would also have full
representation on other European and international bodies;
• equality legislation and human rights; and
• the constitution and government of Scotland, including
Parliament, the courts and
local government.
Independence proposals




Her Majesty The Queen would remain as
Head of State. The current parliamentary
and political Union of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland would become a
monarchical
and social Union – united kingdoms rather
than a United Kingdom – maintaining a
relationship forged in 1603 by the Union of
the Crowns.
Independence proposals

Scotland would continue to operate within the
Sterling system until any decision to join the
Euro by the people of Scotland in a
referendum
Independence proposals



Within this relationship, a broad range of cultural,
social and policy links would continue and it is likely
that both an independent Scotland and the
remainder of the UK would seek to maintain and
build on a series of cross-border partnerships and
services.
As members of the European Union, both Scotland
and the rest of the UK would enjoy full access to the
other’s markets and there would be freedom to
travel and work in either country.
The question of questions…

The SNP propose two questions in a
referendum.
Referendum: the two
questions. First question:




The first proposal would ask voters whether they
agree that the powers and responsibilities
of the Scottish Parliament should be extended so
that the Parliament becomes
responsible for a range of matters (either full
responsibility for domestic matters as set out in the
full devolution proposal or more responsibility for
financial affairs as
recommended by the Calman Commission).
Referendum. Second question:
The second proposal asks voters whether
they agree that the extension of the Scottish
 Parliament’s powers set out in proposal 1
should be supplemented by a further powers
to enable independence to be achieved.
Devo-max or independence?

David ‘Cameron’ defending the
Union.
Referendum

Westminster fears that "devo max" will be
harder to defeat because it will split the
unionist vote and win over those who
otherwise would have said no to full
independence
Referendum

On January 8 British PM David Cameron
stated that his government would grant
Holyrood [Scottish parliament] the legal
authority to hold an independence
referendum, on condition that it be restricted
to a simple in/out question. Two days later,
Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond,
announced plans to hold a referendum in
Autumn 2014.
Referendum

A series of clashes between Holyrood and
London over the wording of the referendum is
now inevitable. Salmond has hinted that he
might put more than one question to Scottish
voters, full independence or “devo max” –
devolution that would leave little more than
defence and foreign policy in British
government hands..
Referendum


David Cameron’s view (Prime Minister of the
UK)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics16465704