Joint Helicopter Safety Analysis Team (JHSAT) Program Overview/Status

IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Mark Liptak FAA ANE-110 Federal Aviation Administration

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JHSAT Overview/Status Topics

Process lineage Process overview/timing expectations Team composition Dataset selection Using existing helicopter safety reports Measuring the results IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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JHSAT Goal: Provide intervention strategies to the IHST and Joint Helicopter Safety Implementation Team (JHSIT) that maximize the likelihood of reducing worldwide helicopter accident rates by 80 percent by 2016. IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006

Process Lineage

Federal Aviation Administration

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In the U.S., our focus was set by the White House Commission on Aviation Safety

1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal 1.2 The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards

IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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5.3-2

The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC)

on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction

• FAA and the aviation

industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data

• Government should

expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world

IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration 5.3-3

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• • • •

In Response

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) was created, adopted concepts of Boeings Accident Prevention Strategy (APS) APS refined for use with CAST problem set Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies initiatives were combined into CAST CAST supported by Government and Industry with Worldwide Recognition IHST initiative will be driven by the same process that produced measurable success in the part 121 arena IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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CAST Goals

 Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007  Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, manufacturers, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate IHST initiative driving for same level of helicopter accident reduction by 2017 IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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So how will this help helicopters?

• Mature and flexible process ready for use in analysis of helicopter accidents • Leverage helicopter community key experts and stakeholders • Process recognized internationally by industry and regulators • Proven track record in reducing hazardous events • Results tracked by targeted metrics IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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JHSAT Team Members Jack Drake (HAI) JHSAT co-chair Mark Liptak(FAA) JHSAT co-chair Roy Fox (Bell) Fred Brisbois (Sikorsky) Ed Stockhausen (Airmethods) Joe Syslo (Eurocopter) TBD (Robinson) Laura Iseler (IHST) Sandy Hart (NASA) Ann Azevedo (FAA Risk NRS) Barry Rohm (Roll Royce) Bruce Briknell (Navy) 2 to 3 operators Long Term participation not yet determined due to funding Bob Dodd (Dodd and Associates) IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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Process Overview and Timing Expectations IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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Basic CAST Process CAST (IHST) Charters Activity JSAT (JHSAT) Analyzes Data Proposes most effective interventions JSIT (JHSIT) Assesses feasibility of interventions works implementation Continued data analysis, measure intervention effectiveness IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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JHSAT Process Flowchart Charter Development Establish Team Score Intervention Effectiveness Identify Intervention Strategies Select Data Set Review NTSB Docket Data Develop Event Sequence Score Problem Power & Applicability Assign Std Problem Statements Identify Problems (what/why) Prioritize by Overall Effectiveness OE=ƒ(P, A, C) IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006

Yes

Conflicts?

No

Technical Review Report Results = currently being worked by JHSAT Federal Aviation Administration IHST JHSIT

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JHSAT Macro Process Flow and Outreach Approach US Dataset Selection Mar/Apr 06 JSAT Process Understanding Refining Apr 06 Identify FCAA & Military Partners May 06 Indoctrinate in JHSAT Process June 06 JHSAT Analysis May-Nov 06 Tech Review Dec 06 Conduct JHSAT based analyses June-Dec 06 Mitigation Recs for US Jan 07 Mitigation Recs FCAA & Mil Jan 07 Feb 07 Tech Review Mitigation Recs - Global Mar 07 = currently being worked by JHSAT IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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JSAT Process - adapting to rotorcraft data JSAT Process relies on reconstruction of event sequences Lack of detailed data in rotorcraft accidents JHSAT will be more dependent on subject matter experts to fill voids in data Develop customized list of standard problem statements Continuing to work sample accident reports to better understand process issues.

IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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Secondary Technical Support JHSAT findings will be reviewed by subject matter experts.

Analysis results will be subject to peer review.

Anticipated areas: Airframe Engines Training Others Pilots Maintenance Regulators Will develop and draw on these resources as intervention areas are developed from the data Need SME expertise to validate intervention recommendations IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Dataset Selection Federal Aviation Administration

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24,294 Worldwide Civil Helicopters

IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Source: Rotor Roster 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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Worldwide Helicopter Accidents/Year 1980 - 2005 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 80 82 84

US Civil Registry

86 88 90 92 94

Non-US Civil & Military

96 98 00 02 04

US Military & USCG (ABC) IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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24 year look back – Relative stability in helicopter

24 Years - Little Change

accident causal factors

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Aircraft Powerplant Auxilary Equipment Human Performance Environment / Facilities Unknown

IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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Worldwide Helicopter Accident Count Goal • Present average 10-year (1996-2005) accident count: 562 accidents/year • 80% reduction goal means that the number of accidents per year starting in 2016 should be: 0.2 X 562 = 112.4 accidents • Challenge:

562 accidents today 112 in 2017

IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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JHSAT Multi-Year Data Analysis Approach NTSB Data + International Data 2000-2001 Report Mar ‘07 2002-2003 Report 2008 2004-2005 Report 2009 Validate Validate IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Existing Safety Reports Federal Aviation Administration

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Leveraging Existing Helicopter Safety Studies Can we offer any mitigation recommendations in the near term?

Source

NASA NASA NASA NASA AMPA CRS OGP TSB Canda Bell Textron USA

Country

USA USA USA USA USA USA UK

Topic

35 year accident analysis 7 year accident analysis Helicopter Incidents Fatal Accident Analysis EMS Military safety Oil & gas operations Accident Analysis Accidents

Title

U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents, 1963 Through 1997 Analysis of US Civil Rotorcraft Accidents from 1990 to 1996 and Implications for a Safety Program ASRS Rotorcraft Incident Study - Draft Data Summary The Final Report of the Helicopter Accident Analysis Team A Safety Review and Risk Assessment in Air Medical Transport Report for Congress - Military Aviation Safety Safety Performance of Helicopter Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry - 2000 Data Lessons Learned from TSB Investigation of Helicopter Accidents (1994 - 2003) History of Helicopter Safety IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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Measuring the results

“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results” Winston Churchill

IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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Safety Metrics

 Purpose: Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired risk reduction.  Assumption: Measurement of accident rate alone is not an effective means of identifying program success, interventions must be measurable  Concentrate on using reporting systems currently in place  Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if desired result is not occurring  Issue annual reports showing key indicator trends  Time span, at least 10 years, also an opportunity to establish a permanent set of criteria to measure for monitoring the “system-wide” health of the helicopter sector IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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Conclusions

• IHST safety initiative is utilizing a proven, widely

recognized data-driven process

• JHSAT team comprised of a cross-section of helicopter

industry experts has been formed

• Dataset selected – NTSB 2000-2005 • JHSAT pushing to publish first set of helicopter safety

intervention recommendations by 1Q07.

• Leveraging existing safety reports • Outreach effort to engage international community • Performance will be measured IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration

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IHST Briefing - May 8, 2006 Questions/Comments Federal Aviation Administration

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