Transcript Trafford - New Economy

Trafford Economic Alliance
Building Economic Resilience
People
Business
Place
Trafford Economic Alliance
Building Economic Resilience
Welcome
Nick Gerrard
Corporate Director Economic Growth
& Prosperity Trafford Council
People
Business
Place
BUILDING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE ACROSS
GREATER MANCHESTER:
TRAFFORD EVENT AGENDA
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People
08:30–09:00 Arrival and Registration
09:00–09:10 Welcome and Introduction:
Nick Gerrard, Corporate Director Economic
Growth & Prosperity Trafford Council
09:10–09:35 Local Economic Assessment
Dr Alexander Roy, Head of Economic Analysis, New Economy
09:35–09:55 The Emerging Strategic Context
Baron Frankal, Director of Economic Strategy,
New Economy
09:55–10:25 Q&A Session – Panel:
Nick Gerrard, Baron Frankal, Alexander Roy,
and Chris Fletcher Chair of Trafford Economic
Alliance
10:25–10:35 Closing remarks
Nick Gerrard Corporate Director Economic
Growth & Prosperity Trafford Council
10:35 – 11.00 Networking
Business
Place
Trafford’s Role in Greater
Manchester
– Trafford has been independently assessed as the most
resilient place to withstand economic shocks in the North
of England and 7th nationally (Experian September 2010).
– Trafford has a highly productive population. Whilst it makes
up 9% of Greater Manchester‘s population it contributes
12.% of is Gross Value Added, 42% higher than would be
expected for a population with similar characteristics
– Trafford is a major source of jobs in Greater Manchester
and the North West It is a net importer of labour (25,000)
and has more than 1.03 jobs per head of working age
population against a North West average of 0.8
– The number of vacancies per Job Seekers Allowance
(JSA) claimant is significantly higher in Trafford than
across Greater Manchester (1.1 to 2.7)
People
Business
Place
Trafford’s Role in Greater
Manchester
– Over a third of Trafford’s residents are graduates (37.3%),
well above the UK and GM averages (29.9% and 26.7%).
– The highest proportion of pupils achieving at least 5
GCSEs grades A*-C 80.3% compared to 70.2% in Greater
Manchester
– Including English and Maths 63.3% in Trafford compared
to 48.8% in Greater Manchester, amongst the best
performance in the country.
People
Business
Place
Trafford’s Role in Greater
Manchester
 Trafford is the enterprise capital of the North West with
1,240 new business starts in 2008 adding to an already
strong business base and highest per capita in Greater
Manchester. VAT registered businesses 72.2 per 1,000
head of population in Trafford compared to 52.4 in GM
and 57.2 nationally.
– Trafford Park the first and still the largest Industrial Park in
Europe - 3000 acres and nearly 1,300 companies
employing 32,000 people.
– An amazing cluster of retail, sporting cultural and leisure
attractions including the internationally renowned
Manchester United FC, Lancashire County Cricket Club
Imperial War Museum (North) and the Trafford Centre.
Tourism is already worth more than £370million to the local
economy
People
Business
Place
Local Economic Assessment (LEA)
Trafford
January 2011
Presentation by Dr Alexander Roy, Head of Economic Analysis
The LEA: What’s New?
— The LEA endorses and reinforces key findings of the
MIER … but nearly 2-years on, the LEA also tells us
about:
• The current & forecast future impact of the recession
• The composition & risk profile of the public sector
across GM
• The spatial dimensions of growth down to local level
GM Employment Growth 2003–08
FB&PS FDI into UK 2003–09
Manufacturing
FDI into UK
2003–09
Travel-to-Work
Business Base
CREATIVE: 7.2%
CONSTRUCTION:
8.2%
LIFE SCIENCES:
0.5%
KEY (1998–2008)
(Source: ABI)
Hi Growth
Growth
Hi Decline
Decline
HEALTH: 8.4%
ENGINEERING:
2.5%
FOOD AND
DRINK:
2.9%
MANUFACTURING:
9.2%
FINANCIAL: 4.1%
FINANCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL
SERVICES: 18.3%
RETAIL: 12.6%
Public Sector
6.0%
5.5%
4.9%
% EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
5.0%
4.0%
3.7%
3.0%
2.4%
2.0%
1.1%
1.0%
0.7%
0.0%
TRAFFORD
GM
PUBLIC
GB
PRIVATE
Source: ONS Sub-regional public and private sector Estimates, 2010
Public Sector Employment
40.0
GB RESIDENT
AVERAGE
30.0
GB WORKPLACE AVERAGE
25.0
20.0
15.0
BU
RY
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SA
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10.0
TR
AF
PERCENTAGE EMPLOYMENT
35.0
WORKPLACE BASED
2008
RESIDENCE BASED
2010
GB AVERAGE WORKPLACE
GB AVERAGE RESIDENT
Source: ONS Sub-regional public and private sector Estimates, 2010
Public Sector
2.00
2,300
employees
1.80
1.60
1.40
1,100
employees
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
GB average =1
0.00
Public security, law and order activities
Medical practice activities
Source: ONS Sub-regional public and private sector Estimates, 2010
High-growth Businesses
2.42%
2.02%
2.02%
1.99%
2.00%
1.90%
GM AVERAGE 1.82%
1.67%
1.63%
NW AVERAGE 1.73%
1.48%
1.50%
1.28%
1.26%
1.00%
0.50%
TO
C
K
U
R
Y
P
S
M
E
TA
Source: Business Link NW, 2010
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0.00%
M
HIGH-GROWTH AS PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESS BASE
2.50%
People
High employment rate driven by highly-skilled resident
population - over a third of the district’s population are qualified
to degree level and above
100%
90%
26.7
80%
29.8
37.3
70%
15.8
15.4
60%
15.6
50%
40%
16.4
16.0
16.8
14.2
30%
20%
13.4
12.4
12.6
8.3
12.8
10%
15.1
14.4
12.6
TRAFFORD
GM
UK
0%
NO QUALIFICATIONS
OTHER QUALIFICATIONS
NVQ 1
NVQ 2
NVQ 3
NVQ 4+
People & Place
Ward boundary
Manchester
ACORN Type
Hard Pressed
Town centre
Moderate Means
Motorway route
Motorway junction
Com fortably Off
Railway s tation
Urban Pros perity
Wealthy Achievers
Metrolink route
Stretford
Metrolink s tation
Urm ston
Metrolink proposed route
Chorlton
Sale
Altrincham
W ythenshawe
Source: CACI, ACORN (2010)
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.
License number 100019918. 2010
Spread of Deprivation
100%
1.9%
10.9%
3.0%
8.9%
13.3%
2.8%
3.5%
7.6%
7.6%
90%
4.5%
12.8%
14.8%
28.9%
18.8%
16.0%
80%
29.0%
20.5%
13.2%
22.4%
22.5%
13.3%
23.4%
70%
16.0%
16.7%
20.0%
29.2%
60%
21.6%
24.6%
26.7%
24.2%
50%
16.7%
17.7%
27.0%
23.0%
40%
20.0%
17.4%
66.8%
30%
21.7%
46.5%
20%
42.2%
40.3%
39.4%
17.9%
18.1%
34.0%
10%
32.0%
18.3%
11.6%
10.9%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
W
IG
AN
D
FO
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TR
AF
TA
M
ES
I
DE
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P
ST
O
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O
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SA
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HD
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HA
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BU
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0%
Impact of the Recession
RECESSION
BENCHMARKED EMPLOYMENT (2000=100)
115
110
105
100
95
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TRAFFORD
Key
Employment peak/
Return to peak
Employment decline
Employment growth
GM
Impact of the Recession
115.0
GREATER MANCHESTER PT
110.0
105.0
TRAFFORD FT
100.0
GREATER MANCHESTER FT
95.0
TRAFFORD PT
90.0
2005
2006
TRAFFORD FT
TRAFFORD PT
2007
GREATER MANCHESTER FT
2008
2009
GREATER MANCHESTER PT
Figure 4: Pessimistic scenario, 2010-2015
Public Sector Cuts
PUBLIC
SECTOR
PRIVATE
SECTOR LOSS
PRIVATE
SECTOR GAIN
TOTAL
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Number
–2,600
–1,400
–5,100
–1,500
–1,700
–2,500
–2,600
–1,500
–1,200
–1,700
%
–8.8
–6.2
–5.4
–6.6
–8.8
–7.1
–8.3
–7.7
–5.6
–6.7
Number
-3,200
-1,700
-6,200
-1,800
-2,100
-3,100
-3,200
-1,800
-1,500
-2,100
%
-4.4
-4.5
-3.0
-3.5
-4.2
-4.0
-3.5
-3.9
-1.6
-3.0
Number
4,900
2,600
28,800
2,800
3,500
8,600
7,800
1,800
10,800
4,800
%
6.7
6.8
14.3
5.5
7.0
11.1
8.6
3.9
11.6
7.0
Number
-900
-500
17,500
-500
-300
3,000
2,000
-1,500
8,100
1,000
%
-0.9
-0.8
5.9
-0.7
-2.6
2.7
1.7
-2.5
7.0
1.1
GM
–21,900
–6.8
-26, 760
-3.4
76,600
9.7
28,500
2.6
Source: OBR, GMFM, New Economy analysis. Note: may not sum due to rounding.
115
110
105
Trafford Public
Trafford Private
100
GM Public
GM Private
95
90
85
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Strengths
• Part of conurbation core and
‘South Manchester’ property
markets
• Skilled population
• Strong private sector business
base
• Attractive neighbourhoods and
quality of life
• Low levels of deprivation
• Good connectivity with rest of
conurbation
UK Competitiveness Index 2010
• UKCI 2010 shows Trafford as most competitive borough
in North of England – well-ahead of other GM districts
• Trafford (#67 in 2010) ranked alongside southern areas
such as Bristol (#68), Harrow (#70), West Oxfordshire
(#73) and Brighton (#86)
UK COMPETITIVENESS INDEX
2009
RANK (379)
2010
RANK (379)
Trafford
108.7
60
107.5
67
Stockport
100.5
127
100.5
126
Manchester
100.1
133
100.4
127
Salford
94.0
208
93.5
214
Bury
89.0
275
88.2
287
Bolton
87.4
291
85.6
318
Tameside
85.3
331
85.4
325
Wigan
84.6
335
83.8
341
Rochdale
83.0
352
82.1
352
Oldham
82.0
358
81.2
363
Threats
• Public sector cuts across GM: despite low public sector
employment within Trafford, relatively high proportion of
residents commute to work in public sector jobs outside
Trafford
• Can these skills be harnessed and exploited elsewhere
in the economy?
• Continued loss of manufacturing from Trafford Park
• Need to revitalise Altrincham and other town centres
Opportunities
• Attract greater inward investment and maximise benefits of
large highly-skilled resident population
• Further exploit the strategic and commercial potential
of Trafford Park
• Including new office development around Trafford
Centre
• New opportunities exist around Carrington & Pomona
• Further opportunities for high-end housing growth
within GM’s current location of choice
The GM LEA including the Trafford chapter are available at:
www.neweconomymanchester.com
Dr Alexander Roy
Head of Economic Analysis
[email protected]
Building Economic Resilience across Greater
Manchester and Trafford
The Emerging Strategic Context
Baron Frankal
Director of Economic Strategy
[email protected]
THEMES
• A new national economic development
landscape starting to become clear
• The Greater Manchester Strategy (GMS)
• Greater Manchester Local Enterprise
Partnership (LEP)
• Greater Manchester Combined Authority (CA)
• Conclusions
THE NEW ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT LANDSCAPE
Winding down RDAs
Employment - New approach to welfare reform - Single Work Programme
Skills - Freeing up learning and training providers from central targets
Emerging central approach to business support, innovation, trade and
investment
Localism – Yet a role for functional economic areas through Local
Enterprise Partnerships – economic development, transport, planning,
regeneration
LOCAL GROWTH WHITE PAPER: OPPORTUNITIES
•
Business support – potential for GM to deliver
•
Growth Hub – tentative proposal for joint bid with regional partners
•
Technology and Innovation Centre – potential high-profile GM bid
•
International trade and inward investment – drive agenda, with
opportunities for GM LEP input and delivery
• Regional Centre competitive, manufacturing & distribution less so
•
Monitor / drive regional transition work underway on business support,
sector support, land assets, research, EU
•
Tourism and marketing
•
Central role in Regional Growth Fund bids
•
Working with HCA on regeneration and securing housing delivery
GREATER MANCHESTER STRATEGY (GMS)
• A solid foundation on which to build
•
Based on MIER and other evidence
•
Widespread consultation
•
GMS agreed by AGMA Executive Board, August 2009
•
Central government signed up in Agreement in December 2009
and implementation underway
•
All bodies now implementing GMS
GMS STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
• Focus on Early Years to maximise impact of interventions
• Better Life Chances in the most deprived areas
• Increase the proportion of highly skilled people
• Attract, retain and nurture the best talent
• Significantly improve transport
• Expand and diversify economic base
• Increase international connectivity of GM’s firms
• A Low Carbon Economy – GM specialising in built environment
• The Housing Market – Attractive and sustainable places to live
• More effective governance
• Building a Sense of Place
GMS & TRAFFORD
• GMS provides focal point for collaboration
• Trafford – Can play a key role in contributing to the
implementation of the GMS
• Build on work underway in the Early Years and Better Life
Chances pilots and other GMS work streams such as Low
Carbon, which are underway
• Anticipation of difficult times through public service reform agenda
and realising benefits of collaboration
GREATER MANCHESTER SPATIAL FRAMEWORK:
KEY ISSUES FOR TRAFFORD
• Trafford Park – well connected and following rationalisation offers
real opportunities for further growth
• Trafford Centre is key asset and growing office and leisure offer
make it a major employment location as well as visitor destination
• MediaCity Wharfside further diversifying Trafford Park offer
• Other strong opportunities exist around Carrington and Pomona
• Attractive, high-value housing stock is in demand and housing
development can support GM’s labour market
• Poor performance of town centres is key concern
GREATER MANCHESTER COMBINED AUTHORITY
• The GMCA ‘scheme’ was approved by all of GM’s ten local authorities in
April 2010 and submitted to Government
• 15 week consultation by CLG & DfT – majority of responses were
positive
• Proposition went to the Secretary of State for Communities and Local
Government recommending that plans for a CA in GM go ahead
• Government has now approved plans approval with draft order to be
laid before Parliament
GM LEP PROPOSAL
• Submitted and now confirmed as a front runner
• Shadow LEP now established and meeting monthly
• Establish full LEP by April 2011
• Recruitment process
• Membership
TIMELINE
6th Sept
End Sept
Proposal
Submitted
Start Dec
Shadow GM
LEP & CA est.
Front-runner
LEPs announced
Negotiations with Government continue
GM Partners establish
shadow LEP infrastructure
Partners (shadow LEP)
implement appointment
process to full LEP
Partners (shadow LEP)
manage full consultation
April
GM LEP & CA
operational
PROPOSAL FOR GM LEP & CA TO OVERSEE
•
Research and strategy development
•
Science and innovation
•
Inward investment and international trade
•
Employment and skills
•
Business support for new business and growth
•
Marketing and tourism
•
European funding
•
Low carbon economy
•
Planning, housing and transport
RESPONSIBILITY, RESOURCES AND CHALLENGES
•
Ongoing discussions with central government departments through Senior
Officials Group
•
Regional transition work underway
•
Employment and skills – influencing the new agenda that is emerging –
collaboration with employers to stimulate demand, influencing FE Colleges
and work based learning providers to reflect this
•
Securing resources: European Funding, RGF, Evergreen, TIF
•
How, in a constrained resource environment, do we maximise the GM
offer?
CONCLUSIONS
• Changing landscape - regional structures abolished and new partnerships at a
sub-regional level
• Combined Authority – primary accountable body that has potential to take on
responsibility for coordinating economic development and regeneration and
transport provision across Greater Manchester
• Local Enterprise Partnership established and potentially powerful tool to
realise GM aspirations
• Greater Manchester needs to focus activity on those strategic priorities
through the GMS that will bring long term sustainable growth
• It will be crucial to stimulate private sector-led economic development, whilst
at the same time mitigating the effects of public sector fiscal contraction
where possible
Q&A SESSION
Panel
Nick Gerrard (Chair) – Corporate Director Economic
Growth & Prosperity Trafford Council
Baron Frankal – Director of Strategy, New Economy
Dr Alexander Roy - Head of Economic Analysis,
New Economy
Chris Fletcher- Chair of Trafford Economic Alliance
Building Economic Resilience
Trafford Priorities
Nick Gerrard
Corporate Director Economic Growth &
Prosperity
Trafford Council
People
Business
Place
Trafford’s Priorities
Trafford Park
1St and largest industrial
Estate in Europe
Continuing the
Transformation
Trafford Park
Master Plan
Metrolink Extension
People
Business
Place
Trafford’s Priorities
Media City
Trafford Wharfside
– £250 million investment
– 2,325 jobs
– £ 3.5 million additional GVA
– 170 creative businesses
People
Business
Place
Trafford’s Priorities
Carrington and Partington
Carrington: 390 hectares of
brownfield land to provide
13% of the new homes and
40% of the employment land
for Trafford to 2026.
Already in Pipeline
•Saica paper mill in Partington
£280 million and 200 end
user jobs
•ESB International and
Carlton Power Stations 600
construction jobs and 100
end user jobs
•National Grid’s plans for
employment space creating
2000 construction jobs and
1600 end user jobs
People
Business
Place
Trafford’s Priorities
Altrincham
•Altrincham plans for £600
million of effected or planned
investment
•£190m of GVA annually
•2400 job opportunities.
•New transport interchange
•improvements to the public
realm
•enhanced connectivity
•new bridge between the new
interchange and the railway
station/Altair development.
People
Business
Place
Integrated Investment Tools
– Regional Growth Fund
– Evergreen Fund
– Tax Incremental Finance
– JEREMIE
– European Operational
Programme
– DWP
People
Business
Place
Key Shifts
•
Private sector contribute to public
sector funded contracts
Public sector support
for private
•
Gap funding of economic projects
Commercial economic
return sector led growth
•
Ten districts plus AGMA
CA and Collaborative
working
People
Business
Place
Trafford is Open for Business
• Key Contacts:
Nick Gerrard Corporate Director of
Economic Growth and Prosperity
[email protected] 0161 912 1915
Or
Suzanne Hilton Head of Regeneration
& Economic Development
[email protected] 0161 912 4230
People
Business
Place
NETWORKING……..
People
Business
Place