Transcript Folie 1

TRANS-CSP
NREA
Study Project
TRANS-CSP
Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection
for Concentrating Solar Power (Introduction & Summary)
Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (BMU)
TRANS-CSP
“The sun-belt and the technology belt can
become very powerful when they begin to
understand themselves as a community:
a community of energy, water and climate
security; a community for their common
future.”
H.R.H. Prince El Hassan Bin Talal
President of the Club of Rome
Address for World Energy Dialogue,
Hannover Messe, April 2006
TRANS-CSP
50 Countries analysed within
the MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP Studies
Scandinavia
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
South-Eastern Europe
Western Asia
North Africa
Arabian Peninsula
TRANS-CSP
30 Countries analysed within
the TRANS-CSP Study
Scandinavia
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
South-Eastern Europe
Look for www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
TRANS-CSP
25 Countries analysed within
the MED-CSP Study (not discussed here)
Southern Europe
Western Asia
North Africa
Arabian Peninsula
Look for www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp
TRANS-CSP
Scope
What are the renewable electricity potentials in EUMENA* and
how could they be linked to provide firm power capacity at low
cost?
 Database for Decision Makers
 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
 Power Demand Assessment
 Sustainable National Electricity Supply Scenarios
 Basis for National Guidelines to Initiate and Follow that Path
* Europe, Middle East, North Africa
TRANS-CSP
Economy
A strategy for
sustainability must
satisfy all aspects of
the energy policy
triangle:
 low cost of energy
 low environmental impact
 low conflict potential
 low risk and vulnerability
 fair access to energy
 economic stability
 energy supply security
 power on demand
 international cooperation
Energy
Policy
Triangle
Security
Compatibility
TRANS-CSP
Technology Portfolio:
 Coal, Lignite
 Oil, Gas
 Nuclear Fission, Fusion
 Concentrating Solar Thermal Power
 Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock)
 Biomass
 Hydropower
 Wind
 Photovoltaic
 Wave / Tidal
ideally stored
energy
storable energy
fluctuating
energy
 Sustainable Mix:
 Inexpensive (least cost, no long term subsidies)
 Secure (diversified, on demand, redundand, undepletable)
 Compatible (low pollution & climate change, fair access)
TRANS-CSP
Plenty Renewable Energy Resources in EUMENA
In brackets: (Typical Yield in GWhel/km²/y)
Biomass (1)
Geothermal Energy (1)
Wind Energy (30)
Hydropower (30)
Solar Energy (250)
Every 10 km² in MENA
yield 15 million barrels
of fuel oil per year in
form of solar energy
TRANS-CSP
Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA
16000
> 630 000
Solar
Electricity in TWh/y
14000
Geothermal
12000
What would be a
sustainable mix ?
10000
Hydro
Wind
8000
Biomass
6000
Wave/Tide
Desalination
4000
MENA
2000
Europe
0
Potentials
Demand 2000
Demand 2050
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP:
Electricity
in Europe
Electricity
Production Generation
and Import All Countries
4500
Import Solar
Import Other
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
4000
Electricity [TWh/y]
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
5 resources,
mostly imported and limited

10 resources,
mostly domestic and unlimited
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP:Installed
Installed
Capacity in Europe
Capacity All Countries
1400
1400
Import Solar
Import Other
1200
Photovoltaics
Wind
1000
Geothermal
Hydropower
800
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
600
CSP Plants
Oil
400 Gas
Coal
200 Nuclear
Peak Load
0
Power Capacity [GW]
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
At any time, peak power demand is covered with an extra
25 % reserve of firm power capacity
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP: Import Dependency vs. Current Trend
90%
Share of Total Electricity
80%
Import Dependency
in the TRANS-CSP
Scenario
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Current Trend of
Import Dependency
20%
10%
0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
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Electricity Cost
of Power
Technologies
(Example Spain)
Electricity
Cost
(Example Spain)
40
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Import Solar
Electricity Cost [c/kWh]
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
CO2 Capture and Sequestration (CCS) included in fossil fueled generation costs after 2020
CSP in solar only operation
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP: Investment for Least Cost Electricity
Electricity Cost [c/kWh]
8,0
invest phase
7,5
least cost phase
7,0
6,5
TRANS-CSP Mix
6,0
Mix 2000
5,5
Solar Import
5,0
4,5
4,0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Example Spain
TRANS-CSP Mix: Energy Mix as described here incl. RUE, RES and CCS
Mix 2000: Maintaining exactly the Power Mix like in the Year 2000 with CCS
TRANS-CSP
Adequate Political and Legal Framework Required
 Diversification of the energy portfolio is a key to energy security.
 The cost-stabilising effect of renewables must be valued adequately.
 RD&D for the cost reduction of renewables must be extended.
 Feed in tariffs are very effective instruments for market introduction.
 A EUMENA free trade zone for renewables should be established.
 Evaluation and negotiation of HVDC interconnections must start soon.
 Subsidisation of all energy technologies should be limited to a reasonable
time span and subsequently reduced to zero.
 European support for MENA for the market introduction of renewables can
attenuate the growing pressure on fossil fuel resources that would
otherwise origin from the economic growth of this region, thus helping
indirectly to secure fossil fuel supply in Europe.
 As a long term perspective, EUMENA could become a Community for
Energy, Water and Climate Security.
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Public and Private Investment by Renewable Electricity Feed-In Laws
 Low private investment risk through long term power purchase agreement
granted by law
 Low equity interest rates required by private investors due to low
investment risk
 Least cost market introduction of renewables through low equity interest
rates of private investors
 Diversity of supply through individually adapted feed-in tariffs for each
technology
 Stimulation of private investment and R&D for cost reduction through
retrogressive feed-in tariffs
 Feed-in laws provide public investment over limited time span to stimulate
private investment for the market introduction of renewables
 The initial tariff addition is covered by the consumers who benefit from
future cost stability. Due to initially low renewable shares, the effect on
consumer prices is very low.
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TRANS-CSP: CO2 Emissions in Europe
RUE Rational Use of Energy RES Renewable Energy Systems CCS Carbon Capture & Sequestration
Avoided CO2 is calculated with respect to a mix as in the year 2000 including nuclear power
TRANS-CSP
Security and Redundancy of Power Supply by a
Future TRANS-Mediterranean HVDC Grid
TRANS-CSP
Comparing Strategies for Electricity in Europe
Electricity Mix dominated by Renewable
Energy with Fossil Fuel Backup
Electricity Mix dominated by Fossil Fuels
and Nuclear Power
Diversified supply and renewable resources
Supply based on few and limited resources
Domestic sources dominate the electricity
mix
Low vulnerability of decentralised generation
Energy imports dominate the electricity mix
Low hazardous waste, recyclable materials
Unsolved disposal of nuclear waste and CO2
Low risk of contamination or major accidents
Risks of nuclear proliferation and accidents
Requires public investment over limited time
Requires long-term continuous subsidisation
Low environmental impact
Climate change and pollution
Trend to lower cost and low price volatility
Trend to higher cost and high price volatility
Power on demand by a well balanced mix
Power on demand by ideally stored energy
Based on proven and demonstrated
technologies
Still requires major technical breakthroughs:
Safe fission and breeder technology.
Commercial fusion reactor.
Carbon capture and sequestration.
High vulnerability of large generation units
TRANS-CSP
Conclusions
 Renewable energy sources backed by fossil fuels can provide sustainable,
secure and least cost electricity for Europe, with a share of 80 % in 2050.
 Within 15 years, a well balanced power mix leads to less expensive electricity
than business as usual. Domestic sources will reduce the import of fuels.
 Solar electricity from concentrating solar power stations in MENA transferred
to Europe via high voltage direct current transmission can provide firm capacity
for base- , intermediate- and peaking power, and supply up to 15 % of the
European demand at a cost of 5 cent/kWh.
 Carbon emissions can be reduced to 25 % compared to the year 2000. 1 % of
the European land will be required for the power mix, equivalent to the land
presently used for transport and mobility.
 European support for MENA for the market introduction of renewables can
attenuate the growing pressure on fossil fuel resources that would otherwise
result from the economic growth of this region, thus helping to secure fossil fuel
supply also in Europe. The necessary political process should be initiated by a
renewable energy partnership and a common free trade area for renewable
energies in EUMENA and culminate in a Community for Energy, Water and
Climate Security. Long term power purchase agreements guaranteed by law
(e.g. feed-in tariffs) can provide an adequate frame for industry and investors.