Transcript Slide 1

National Weather Service
National Weather Service
Local Forecast Office Operations
Jeff Cupo
Barry Goldsmith
Chad Omitt
Mike Seaman
What we will cover…
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National Weather Service Organization
Local Forecast Office Responsibilities
Forecast Process
Severe Weather Operations
Tropical Cyclone Operations
NWS Organization
Department of Commerce (DOC)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)
National Weather Service (NWS)
122 Local Weather Forecast Offices
13 River Forecast Centers
Center Weather Service Units
National Hurricane Center
Storm Prediction Center
Hydrologic Prediction Center
Aviation Weather Center
Climate Prediction Center
4 other national centers
122 NWS Field Offices
NWS Mission - Why we are here…
• For the protection of life and
property and the enhancement of
the national economy
• NWS provides weather, hydrologic,
and climate forecasts and warnings
for the United States
• NWS data and products form a
national information database and
infrastructure which can be used by
other governmental agencies, the
private sector, the public, and the
global community.
What we do…
Maintain a continuous weather watch,
producing forecasts and warnings 24/7
Routine
Forecasts
Long Fuse Watches and Convective Watches
Warnings
and Warnings
Hydro-meteorological
Observations and
Climate Information
Public
Winter Weather
Tornado
River observations,
forecasts and warnings
Aviation
High Wind
Severe
Thunderstorm
Climate Summaries
Flash Flood
Records
Fire
Weather
Frost/Freeze
Excessive Heat
Marine
Special Marine
Tropical Cyclone
The Forecast Process
Forecasters analyze / interpret varied
datasets to develop a 4-dimensional
picture of the atmosphere:
• Observations
• Analysis
• Diagnosis
• Prognosis
• Communication
Forecast Funnel
Planetary Scale (Long-Wave Pattern)
Synoptic Scale (cyclones/fronts)
Mesoscale (thunderstorms)
Local Effects (terrain)
Local Forecast
Observe, Analyze, and Diagnose
The Current State of the Atmosphere
Surface Observations
Radar Observations
Objective Analysis
Satellite Observations
Upper Air Observations
NWS forecasters analyze the
atmosphere using AWIPS Workstations
Prognosis - Numerical Weather Prediction
(computer models)
Planetary/Global Models
• Environmental Modeling Center
– Global and Mesoscale Modeling
– Ensembles
• European and Canadian Models
• Local modeling
– Small domain
– Develops local expertise
Regional/Mesoscale Models
Local Models
National Digital Forecast Database
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Profound change in way forecasts are
prepared
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Forecasters interact with grids using a
variety of editing tools
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Legacy text products, along with graphical
products generated from 2.5 x 2.5 km
grids
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Graphical Elements available
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Temperature
Probability of Precipitation
Weather (Type)
Dewpoint Temperature
Wind Speed and Direction
Sky Cover
Snow Amount
Relative Humidity
Apparent Temperature
Wave Height. . . And more!
Communication…Getting the Word Out
• Internet
– http://weather.gov
• Media Broadcasts
• NOAA Weather Radio
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11 Transmitters in Forecast Area
Continuous coverage
Immediate Broadcast of Warnings
Tailored Broadcasts
Relay other significant products
• AMBER Alerts
• Civil Emergency Messages
• Chemical Spills
• NWS Family of Services
Severe Weather Operations
Severe Weather Operations
• Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm
Watches issued from Storm
Prediction Center
• Local forecast office
responsible for warnings
– Focus on 0-6 hour time frame
– Additional Staffing and duties
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Warning Forecaster
Communications
Mesoscale Analyst
Routine Forecast Duties
Severe Weather Operations
Warning Forecasters weigh three primary factors when
Making the decision whether to issue a warning on a storm:
Radar Data
Environment
Ground Truth
Convective Warnings- Polygon Concept
- Traditionally, short fused warnings were
issued for entire counties, even if only a
small part of a county was threatened.
- Polygons allow us to focus on the
specific threat. This allows EM’s to focus
their resources where it really counts,
and reducing the impact to those not
really threatened.
AT 627 PM… STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING
A LARGE AND VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO
NEAR DEARBORN …MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. LIVE VIDEO AND RADAR
DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL TORNADO MAY
BE OCCLUDING NORTH NORTHEAST
INTO BUCHANAN COUNTY…AND BECOME RAIN
WRAPPED AND MAY ROPE OUT. A NEW TORNADO
MAY IMMINENTLY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF DEARBORN WITH THIS STORM.
Tropical Cyclone Prediction:
From National…
Observations from Space:
•Satellites and Measurements
•Geostationary (far left)
•Polar Orbiting
•Precipitation Estimator (right)
•Scatterometer (bottom)
Observations from Air and Sea:
•Aircraft and Sondes
•NOAA P-3 “Hurricane Hunter” (top left)
•Gulfstream G-IV Surveillance (bottom
left)
•Dropsondes (top right)
•Dropsonde tracking (bottom right)
Tropical Cyclone Prediction:
From National…
Models and Evaluation
Many of these observations are often included in dynamical
models, which are assessed, along with other data (real-time
satellite imagery and observations) by Hurricane Specialists.
Global Forecast System (GFS)
“Spaghetti” plot of all models, Hurricane Katrina
Tropical Cyclone Prediction:
From National…
Deterministic Winds w/Error Cone
Forecasting
Hurricane Specialists at NHC Combine
Models, observations, prior forecasts, and
subjective interpretation (gut feelings) to
produce a forecast track.
Error and probabilistic information are
derived from long-term statistical samples.
Probabilistic Winds
Tropical Cyclone Prediction:
To Local!
County Warning Area, New Orleans WFO
Hurrevac® Local tracking software
NHC passes baton to the WFO….
The WFO and its local partners
(media affiliates, Emergency
Management) refine NHC forecasts to
a much smaller domain in order to
directly serve counties, cities, and
neighborhoods!
Tropical Cyclone Surge Model (SLOSH)
Tropical Cyclone Prediction:
To Local!
WFO Provides Value Added Information to Local Customers!
WFO Melbourne, FL, Operations During Wilma, 2005
Tropical Cyclone Prediction:
To Local!
Examples of Value Added Information
By Text (Hurricane Local Statements, Inland Cyclone Warnings)…
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE
HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS
WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO
COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN
MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE
POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS
HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT
TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION.
PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF
STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND
TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE
BY MODERN STANDARDS.
Tropical Cyclone Prediction:
To Local!
Examples of Value Added Information
…and with Graphics (Tropical Cyclone Local Hazards)
Graphical Wind Hazard, Florida Suncoast
Pop-Up Text Description, Extreme Wind