Transcript Rebuilding Fish Stock No Later Than 2015 Will Europe Meet

Rebuilding Fish Stocks No Later Than 2015
Will Europe Meet the Deadline?
Rainer Froese and Alexander Proelß
31 March 2009, Salzau, Germany
Maintaining or restoring fish stocks at levels that are capable of producing maximum sustainable
yield is a legal obligation under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and has
been given the deadline of no later than 2015 in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation of
2002. Here we analyze stock assessment data of all major fish stocks of the Northeast Atlantic to
determine whether Europe will be able to deliver on its commitment. The analysis shows that, if
current fishing pressure continues, 85% of the stocks will remain below target and 33% of the
stocks are likely to shrink further instead of being rebuilt. If European ministers in charge of
fisheries are serious about meeting their obligations, they will have to drastically reduce fishing
pressure and halt fishing completely on some stocks. But even if fishing is halted, 26% of the
stocks are so depleted that they can not be rebuilt by 2015.
UNCLOS COC
4.5
Target
JPOI
75th percentile
B = B msy
1
4
75th percentile
UNCLOS COC
JPOI
Target
3.5
0.8
0.6
F/Fmsy
B/Bmsy
3
Median
0.4
Median
2.5
F = r max
2
1.5
B = B pa
25th percentile
25th percentile
F = F msy
1
0.2
0.5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
1970
2015
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Year
Time series of fishing mortality F relative to fishing
mortality associated with maximum sustainable yield
(Fmsy). Dotted horizontal lines indicate the intrinsic
rate of population increase rmax and the target Fmsy,
which is to be reached not later than 2015. If the
indicated trend holds, Europe will miss the deadline
by more than 30 years. From a legal perspective,
repeated enactment of fisheries management
measures which are incapable of maintaining or
restoring Bmsy is incompatible with the requirements
of both UNCLOS and the precautionary principle as
laid down in the Treaty establishing the European
Community.
Time series of stock biomass B relative to biomass
associated with maximum sustainable yield Bmsy. The
target biomass Bmsy to be reached not later than 2015
and the precautionary biomass limit Bpa are indicated
by horizontal lines. The vertical broken lines indicate
the dates of relevant international agreements, such
as the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Code of
Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (COC), and the
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI), which
apparently had no impact on the status of the stocks.
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
B / Bmsy
Time needed to reach the biomass associated with
maximum sustainable yield (Bmsy) if fishing is
halted, with indication of the precautionary lower
biomass limit Bpa. The red box contains stocks with
biomasses below Bpa, which will be unable to
rebuild by 2015. The yellow box contains stocks
that will be able to meet the deadline without or
with very modest fishing. The green box contains
stocks that have already reached the target.
B = B msy
0.8
0.6
0.4
B = B pa
0.2
0.0
12
10
8
6
4
Years to reach B msy
2
0
-2
-4