Transcript Slide 1
Climate Change and health
13.00 – 15.30
Paul Fisher
Specialty Registrar in Public Health
Honorary Research Fellow
Room 412, 4th Floor
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
College of Life and Environmental Sciences
University of Birmingham
Overview
•Climate change
•Global Issues
•Health impacts of climate change
- National document
- MPH Dissertation
- Regional Project
•Surveillance
•Planning
•NHS
•Projects in the region
•Internet resources
Human activities
global emissions by sector, 2000
Are
greenhouse
gas
concentrations
and
temperatures
really rising?
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report
Are temperatures rising?
Annual anomalies of
global land-surface air
temperature
(°C),
1850 to 2005, relative
to the 1961 to 1990
mean.
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report
Aren’t
temperature
variations a
natural
phenomenon?
Natural cycles occur due to tilt of the earth in
relation to the sun, and volcanic eruptions
releasing particles into the air.
Based on those factors, models would predict a
cooling over the last 50 years.
Only when human activities are factored in, are the
current temperature rises explained.
Aren’t even
scientists
unsure about
global
warming?
The IPCC
More than 2,500 scientific expert reviewers were involved
in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
2007 report. The report concludes:
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
Greenhouse gas concentrations have increased as
a result of human activities.
There is very high confidence* that the net effect
of human activities since 1750 has been one of
warming.
* = >9/10 probability
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)
Why the response needs to be global
Cumulative emissions of
greenhouse gases, to
2002
WHO estimates of per
capita mortality from
climate change, 2000
Map projections from Patz et al, Ecohealth 2007.
WHO Comparative Risk Assessment estimated that by 2000,
climate change that had occurred since the 1970s was
causing over 150,000 additional deaths per year (WHO, 2002,
McMichael et al 2004)
Climate extremes
• Simple extremes
Heavy rainfall, high temperature
• Complex extremes
Cyclones, ice storms, drought,
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) events
• Unique phenomena
Collapse of ice sheets, cessation
of thermohaline circulation
Major flood disasters
• 1971-1995
318,000 dead, 81 million homeless,1.5 billion
affected
Decade
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
number
6
7
8
18
26
cost
$35 bn
$300 bn
Projected EU climate in 2071
For summer average temperature, we see
significant increases to the 2080s
2020
+1.5ºC
Increased Tourism
Increased Heat stress
2040
+2.2ºC
Infrastructure risks
Risks to biodiversity
Heat related deaths
2080
+3.7ºC
But the temperature on the hottest
day of the year could increase by
up to 10ºC
Risk to Food Security
West Midlands
central estimate
Medium emissions
The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than
6.1ºC
17
For rainfall we could see significant
summer decreases
2020
-6%
2040
-11%
2080
-20%
Reduced stream
flow and water
quality
Increased drought
Subsidence
Decreased crop
yields
Serious water stress
West Midlands
central estimate
Medium emissions
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -43% and very unlikely to be higher
than +6%
18
For rainfall we see significant
winter increases
2020
+5%
Increased winter
flooding
Increased subsidence
2040
+11%
2080
+18%
But rainfall on the wettest day
of the year could increase by
up to 30%
West Midlands
central estimate
Medium Emissions
Risks to urban
drainage
Severe Transport
disruption
Risks of national
Infrastructure
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +3% and very unlikely to be
higher than +39%
19
Climate change: gradual change +
sudden events
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•
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Flooding, windstorms
Vector-borne diseases
Foodborne disease
Waterborne disease
Direct effects of rising
temperatures
• Changes in air pollution
• Ultraviolet radiation
The major areas identified in ‘Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK’,
2001/02; updated 2008
Malaria
• Pre 1820: malaria common in
– Thames estuary
– Somerset levels
– Severn estuary
• Draining marshes + better domestic
hygiene = decline in malaria
• Cold related illness
• Food poisoning
• Waterborne diseases due
to increases in
temperature
• Waterborne diseases and
water pollution
• Psychological and mental
health impacts
• Pests
• Sunburn and skin cancer
• Food poverty and
security
Salmonellosis and temperature rise
Modelled association between temperature and number of reported cases of
salmonellosis in England and Wales (adjusted for outbreaks, seasonal factors
and holidays)
© S. Kovats (Data supplied by HPA)
Global Minimum Mortality Temperatures (TMM)
Summer, winter and net daily mortality for the
West Midlands with increasing temperature
Uncertainties and confounders
…cont
Cardiovascular Disease
A class of diseases involving the heart and/or
blood vessels
Epidemiology:
Detected most in adults >65 years
Can be exacerbated by high and low temperatures
Current trend:
Daily Cardiovascular Mortality in the West Midlands against Daily Mean CET (2001-2008)
100
• Increased mortality during
60
80
winter and hot summer
weather
20
40
• Minimum mortality
between 15-18oC
0
5
10
15
Mean daily temperature (CET)
20
25
Source: WMPHO and
BADC (British Atmospheric
Data Centre)
Projections for Excess CVD Mortality
(High Emissions Scenario: Central Estimate)
Source: WMPHO and
Met Office UK
Respiratory Disease
A disease effecting the respiratory system
500
Daily Respiratory Disease Admissions in West Midlands vs Daily Mean Temperature
(2001-2008)
100
200
300
400
P=<0.001
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mean Daily Temperature (oC)
• High number of
respiratory disease
admissions during cold
and very warm weather
• Minimum hospital
admissions at 18-20oC
Excess RD Admissions per year in
2080s (High Emissions Scenario)
Annual Decrease of up to 7209
admissions
Allergens and Pollution
Hay Fever
Ozone Episodes
Allergy to pollens in the atmosphere
Can lead to respiratory problems
Epidemiology:
Frequently seen in children and
adolescents
Incidence has increased
throughout the last century
Worst effects in spring and
summer
Hay Fever and Climate Change:
2 in every 10 people in the UK
Milder winter and earlier spring
means prolonged allergenic
conditions
High concentrations of
Ozone can:
Impair pulmonary function
Cause lung inflammation
Affect lung permeability
An increase in 8 hour mean
ozone levels to 50ppb could
lead to a 53% increase in
deaths and admissions
Food and Water Borne Diseases
Diseases caused by ingestion of contaminated food or
water
Transmission:
Contaminated food
Direct contact with animals
Drinking or bathing in
contaminated water
As a result of heavy rain and
floods
Many different food and water
borne diseases…
Campylobacter and Temperature
There might be an
additional 179,000 cases
of food poisoning in the
UK by the year 2050 as a
result of climate change
Excess Campylobacter cases per
year in 2080s (High Emissions
Scenario)
Annual Increase of up to 1277 reported
cases
Sources:
REU (Regional Epidemiological Unit)
UKMO (UK Met Office)