Transcript Greenhouse Gas Legislation: Costs

By James M. Taylor
Senior Fellow, Environment Policy
The Heartland Institute
[email protected]
New National Energy Focus
The Obama Energy Plan – Renewable Power
 Continue current subsidies for wind, solar, ethanol
 PLUS, spend an additional $150 billion over 10
years in renewable energy direct subsidies
 PLUS, double renewable energy R&D
 25% renewable power mandate by 2025
The Obama Energy Plan – Carbon Emissions
 Cap and trade CO2 in auction scheme
 80% below 1990 levels by 2050
 Against nuclear and coal until national nuclear
repository and advanced clean coal tech
Federal Electricity Subsidies
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Non-Electric Federal Subsidies
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Obama’s Plan in His Own Words
 “I’m capping greenhouse gases, coal power plants,
natural gas, you name it — whatever the plants
were, whatever the industry was, they would have
to retrofit their operations. That will cost money.
They will pass that money on to consumers under
my plan of a cap-and-trade system. Electricity
rates would necessarily skyrocket.”
 “If somebody wants to build a coal-fired plant,
they can. It’s just that it will bankrupt them”
What are Americans Willing to Pay?
Wilson Research Strategies – May 2008
What are Americans Willing to Pay?
Wilson Research Strategies – May 2008
What Would a 70% Cut in CO2 Cost?
 Lieberman-Warner would cut emissions 70% by 2050,
versus Obama’s 80% cut
 Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
ran the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s
National Energy Modeling System on LiebermanWarner
 SAIC ran a low-cost and high-cost model
Millions of Jobs Lost, Lieberman-Warner
Source: SAIC, EIA Model
Percent Rise in Baseline Gasoline Prices
Source: SAIC, EIA Model
Percent Rise in Baseline Electricity Prices
Lost Annual Household Income
(in constant 2007 dollars)
Percent Loss in Annual GDP
New Mexico Net Jobs Lost
(in thousands)
Rise in Baseline Gasoline Prices
(in percent)
Rise in Electricity Prices
(in percent)
Decline in Annual Household Income
Supporting Studies
A number of other studies from leading economists
and economic institutions largely agree with the SAICEnergy Information Administration assessment.
Congressional Budget Office - 2007
According to a 2007 study conducted by the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO), reducing
greenhouse gas emissions by a mere 15 percent would
cost the average household nearly 3 percent of its
income. A family making $50,000 per year would be
forced to pay an extra $1,400 every year for the same
goods and services it purchases today.
Congressional Budget Office - 2007
"Most of the cost of meeting a cap on CO2
emissions would be borne by consumers, who
would face persistently higher prices for products
such as electricity and gasoline.”
Congressional Budget Office - 2007
"A CO2 cap would worsen the negative effects" of
"existing taxes that dampen economic activity….
The higher prices caused by the cap would lower
real (inflation-adjusted) wages and real returns on
capital, indirectly raising marginal tax rates on
those sources of income."
CRA International - 2007
By 2030, typical greenhouse gas legislation will
cost:
4.9 million lost jobs
$1,700 in lost household annual income
4.0 percent loss in annual GDP
U.S. Energy Information Administration
The average retail price of electricity in states with
renewable power mandates is 42% higher than the
price of electricity in states without such mandates.
Business Week Magazine
The true price of wind power is $91 per megawatt hour,
after factoring in the $40 per megawatt hour of federal
subsidies. By contrast, coal costs merely $37 per
megawatt hour. Wind power is 2 ½ times more
expensive than coal power. And solar power is far more
expensive than wind power.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology - 2007
A 2007 study by economists at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT) reached similar
conclusions. According to the MIT study, mandatory
greenhouse gas reduction schemes similar to those
most popular in Congress and the state legislatures
would cost typical families of four close to $5,000 each
and every year.
Wake Forest University - 2007
In 2007, Wake Forest University Economics Chair
Robert Whaples surveyed a random selection of
American Economic Association Ph.D. economists.
Whaples asked the economists what the impact of
projected global warming will be on U.S. Gross
Domestic Product by the end of the 21st century. Fully
59 percent projected that even 100 years from now
global warming will have a neutral or positive impact
on the U.S. economy
Yale University - 2004
In 2004, Yale University economics professor Robert
Mendelsohn concluded that the benefits of global
warming will outweigh the harms until temperatures
surpass 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer than they are
today. At current warming rates, temperatures will not
surpass 2.5 degrees Celsius until at least the 24th
century.
But What About “Green Jobs” Studies?
 Always, always, always look at the source
 Come at the expense other sectors of the
economy
Green Jobs at What Cost?
All for Very Little Effect
Fully 3/4 of all emissions growth is coming from
China, India, and other developing nations. Costly
global warming legislation does little other than
economically punish U.S. citizens for no real-world
effect, even if global warming is a real concern.
CO2 emissions vs. temperature
U.S. GHG emissions
(in teragrams of CO2 equivalent – source EPA)
30-Year Temperature Trend
Holocene Temperature History –
GRIP Greenland Ice Core
Ice Age Temperature History
What about the Impacts of Drilling?
Regardless of economic costs and the lack of carbon
dioxide impacts, do we really want to trash our
environment with oil and natural gas drilling?
The Frontline of Domestic Drilling
Colorado Roan Plateau
Close-Up of Well-Head
Can You Find the Degradation?
Can You Find the Degradation?
Solar Degradation vs. Well-Heads
Thank you!
James M. Taylor
Senior Fellow, Environment Policy
The Heartland Institute
[email protected]
The Earth’s Climate History
 The Earth’s climate is never static, temperatures are always
warming or cooling.
 Since the end of the last ice age glaciation 10,000 years ago,
the Little Ice Age, which lasted from roughly 1300 to 1900,
brought the coldest global temperatures in our current
interglacial period. This is the baseline of 20th century
temperature rise.
 The Earth warmed merely 0.6 degrees Celsius during the
20th century, as we recovered from the Little Ice Age.
20th Century Temperature and Carbon Dioxide
 Years
 1900-1945
 1945-1977
 1977-1998
 1998-2008
CO2
Temperature
Minimal
Rising
Rising
Cooling
Rising
Rising
Rising
Cooling
Solar Output: A Better Fit
Earth’s Temperature History
U.S. Temperature Fluctuations
Correlate with Solar Changes
The Sun is more likely the dominant driver
of the recorded Arctic temperature variations
But What about the Computer Models?
How Have Computer Predictions Fared?
 IPCC, 2001 - During the next 20 years, temperatures
will rise 0.2 to 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade.
 Let’s check this prediction against real-world data.
Global Temps Since 2001
IPCC vs. Real World - Christy
Why Computer Models Fail – Part I
 Scientists agree doubling CO2 = 1.1 degree C
 CO2 has risen only 40 percent since the dawn of the
Industrial Revolution until today
 How do computer models predict 3.0 degrees C of
warming in 21st century?
Why Computer Models Fail – Part II
 Computer model predictions of rapid temperature
rise are based on speculative “positive feedbacks”
 The “positive feedbacks” assume that a small rise
in CO2 warming will cause further rises in:
 Water vapor (causing much more warming)
 Upper level clouds (causing much more warming)


Upper level clouds warm the earth
Lower level clouds cool the earth
Let’s Check the Real-World Evidence
 In March 2001, MIT atmospheric physicist Dr. Richard
Lindzen reported data indicating global warming was
causing fewer cirrus clouds, creating a “negative
feedback” so strong that it canceled all “positive
feedbacks.”
 Hurricane expert Dr. William Gray has for decades
been reporting lower atmospheric relative humidity.
Testing the Computer Model Assumptions
What Has Aqua Satellite Found?
• 1) Relative humidity is DECLINING, not increasing
•
Gray right, Computer modelers wrong!
• 2) Upper Level Clouds are DECLINING, not increasing
•
Lindzen right, computer modelers wrong!
• This eliminates the vast majority of projected warming
in the computer models.
• This explains why temps rose only 0.6 C during the
entire 20th century, and have not risen in over a
decade.
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
IPCC Major Flaws
 Only 2,600 members (vs. 32,000 Oregon Petition)
 The 2,600 members are not “scientists”
• Selected by political bodies, not scientific bodies
• Only a handful of lead authors produce the final
document
• Greenpeace, Environmental Defense, Environment
Canada the lead authors
• Over 10,000 critical comments by IPCC members
themselves
Scientific Consensus
 32,000 scientists say no crisis (oism.org)
 500 climate scientists surveyed by Institute of Coastal
Research
 Survey question: “Natural scientists have established
enough physical evidence to turn the issue of global
climate change over to social scientists for matters of
policy discussion.”
 Less than half agreed
What Do Others Say about Consensus?
 American Physical Society, July 2008 – “There is a
considerable presence within the scientific
community of people who do not agree with the
IPCC conclusion….”
 New York Times lead science reporter Andrew
Revkin – “For every PhD, there is an equal and
opposite PhD.”
 Summary – There is no scientific consensus that
humans are causing a global warming crisis
Global Warming Alarm Debunked
 Antarctica – Cooling, ice pack growing
 Arctic sea ice – Regional wind patterns
 Mt. Kilimanjaro – Temps cooling, deforestation
 Hurricanes – NHC, NOAA report no increase
 Tornadoes - Declining
 Drought – 20th century soils more moist
 Floods – More precipitation, but less floods
 Greenland – Extremely cold
 Gulf Stream – No threat of shutdown
Thank you!
James M. Taylor
Senior Fellow, Environment Policy
The Heartland Institute
[email protected]
Drought – The Media
Environmental News Service, April 5, 2007: “Global
Warming Brings Perpetual Drought to U.S. Southwest”
Drought – The Science
International Journal of Climatology, July 2004: Study
of soil moisture throughout the Northern
Hemisphere. “The terrestrial surface is both warmer
and effectively wetter … A good analogy to describe the
changes in these places is that the terrestrial surface is
literally becoming more like a gardener’s greenhouse.”
Drought – The Science
Geophysical Research Letters, May 25, 2006 -“An
increasing trend is apparent in both model soil
moisture and runoff over much of the U.S. … This
wetting trend is consistent with the general increase in
precipitation in the latter half of the 20th century.
Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less
frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country
over the last century.”
Drought – The Science
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) website: “A number of tree-ring records exist
for the last two millennia which suggest that 20th
century droughts may be mild when evaluated in the
context of this longer time frame.”
Drought – The Science
Climatic Change, July 2007: During the Little Ice Age,
there occurred three “very large-scale drought[s] more
severe and sustained than any witnessed during the
period of instrumental weather observations” [i.e., the
20th century].
Drought – The Science
 “Evidence indicates that summer soil moisture content
has increased during the last several decades at almost
all sites having long-term records in the Global Soil
Moisture Data Bank.” – Journal of Hydrology, 2006
Drought (U.S. precipitation –
NCDC)
Drought – The Science
What we see from the scientific record is that droughts
have become less frequent and less severe during our
recent global warming. Asserted trends to the contrary
are decidedly short term, limited in geographic reach,
and quite minor when compared to droughts that have
dominated colder climatic conditions.
Snowpack – The Media
Washington Post, Feb. 1, 2008 - “Decline in Snowpack
is Blamed on Warming
Snowpack – The Science
University of Washington climate scientists, Feb. 2007
- Snowpack in the Cascades have increased during the
past 30-plus years
Snowpack – The Science
July 2008 - Scientists at the University of California at
Santa Cruz report that the snowpack at Mt. Shasta has
been growing for the last century, including 30 percent
growth in the past 50 years
Snowpack – The Science
2006 Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference Alpine snowpack throughout Utah has not declined at
all during recent years
Snowpack – The Science
Utah Blue Ribbon scientific panel on Climate Change,
July 2007 - Snowpack in the Intermountain West has
not been shrinking at all
The Cost of Global Warming Plans
The average retail price of electricity in states with
renewable power mandates is 42% higher than the
price of electricity in states without such mandates.
(Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)
The Cost of Global Warming Plans
Business Week magazine reports that the true price of
wind power is $91 per megawatt hour, after factoring in
the $40 per megawatt hour of federal subsidies. By
contrast, coal costs merely $37 per megawatt hour.
Wind power is 2 ½ times more expensive than coal
power. And solar power is far more expensive than
wind power.
The Cost of Global
Warming Laws
Iowa by 2030
40,000 lost jobs
$7,000 reduction in annual disposable income per
household
153% increase in electricity prices from baseline
140% increase in gasoline prices from baseline
Illinois would be much worse
Source: Science Applications International Corp, 2008
The Cost of Global Warming Laws
• According to a 2007 study conducted by the Congressional
Budget Office (CBO), reducing greenhouse gas emissions
by a mere 15 percent would cost the average household
nearly 3 percent of its income. A family making $50,000 per
year would be forced to pay an extra $1,400 every year for
the same goods and services it purchases today.
• "Most of the cost of meeting a cap on CO2 emissions would
be borne by consumers, who would face persistently higher
prices for products such as electricity and gasoline.”
The Cost of Global Warming Laws
A 2007 study by economists at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT) reached similar
conclusions. According to the MIT study, mandatory
greenhouse gas reduction schemes similar to those
most popular in Congress and the state legislatures
would cost typical families of four close to $5,000 each
and every year.
The Cost of Global Warming Laws
A 2003 study by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) found that mandatory
greenhouse gas reductions similar to the most
frequently proposed federal and state legislation
would result in a 27 percent increase in gasoline prices
and a 46 percent rise in electricity prices.
The Cost of Global Warming Laws
In 2007, Wake Forest University Economics Chair
Robert Whaples surveyed a random selection of
American Economic Association Ph.D. economists.
Whaples asked the economists what the impact of
projected global warming will be on U.S. Gross
Domestic Product by the end of the 21st century. Fully
59 percent projected that even 100 years from now
global warming will have a neutral or positive impact
on the U.S. economy
The Cost of Global Warming Laws
In 2004, Yale University economics professor Robert
Mendelsohn concluded that the benefits of global
warming will outweigh the harms until temperatures
surpass 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer than they are
today. At current warming rates, temperatures will not
surpass 2.5 degrees Celsius until at least the 24th
century.
All for Very Little Effect
Fully 3/4 of all emissions growth is coming from
China, India, and other developing nations. Costly
global warming legislation does little other than
economically punish U.S. citizens for no real-world
effect, even if global warming is a real concern.
Federal Electricity Subsidies
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Non-Electric Federal Subsidies
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Antarctica – The Media
 CBS News headline, May 14, 2002 – “Antarctic
Warming Alarms Scientists - Most Serious Thaw Since
End Of Last Ice Age 12,000 Years Ago”
 “A canary in the coal mine” of global warming – An
Inconvenient Truth
Antarctica – The Science
Nature, Jan. 13, 2002 – Antarctica is in a prolonged and
dramatic cold spell. Temperatures have been dropping
1.2 degrees Fahrenheit per decade since 1978.
Antarctica - The Science
“The decline is alarming. … These cooling
repercussions may have a long-term effect.” – Antarctic
Researcher Diana Wall, Colorado State University:
Nature, Jan. 13, 2002
Antarctica - The Science
July 2006, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society – “Mass gains from accumulating snow,
particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East
Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic loss from West
Antarctica.”
Antarctica – The Science
Antarctica – The Science
The Arctic – The Media
 CNN.com headline, Sept. 11, 2007 – “Arctic sea ice
cover at record low”
The Arctic – The Science
“All time low record” merely means since 1979, when
satellites first began measuring Arctic sea ice
The Arctic – The Science
 The Arctic was clearly much warmer during World
War II
 How do we know? Squadron of P-38 and B-17 bombers
found under 268 feet of snow and ice
The Arctic – The Science
"Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns
that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the
Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of
the Arctic. … When that sea ice reached lower
latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters.” NASA, Oct. 4, 2007
The Arctic – The Science
The Arctic – The Science
NASA: Since October 2007, Arctic sea ice has grown
faster than at any point in recorded history.
Global Sea Ice
Mt. Kilimanjaro – The Media
Associated Press, May
14, 2007:
“Global warming [is]
… the glaciers of Mt.
Kilimanjaro
disappearing.”
“Planes used to take
people through
Kilimanjaro to see the
snows, now it's only at
the very top.”
Mt. Kilimanjaro – The Science
Nature online, November 24, 2003: “Although it’s
tempting to blame the ice loss on global warming,
researchers think that deforestation of the mountain’s
foothills is the more likely culprit. Without the forests’
humidity, previously moisture-laden winds blew dry.
No longer replenished with water, the ice is
evaporating in the strong equatorial sunshine.”
Mt. Kilimanjaro – The Science
American Scientist, July-August 2007:
“Warming fails spectacularly to explain the behavior of
the glaciers and plateau ice on Africa's Kilimanjaro
massif.”
“The disappearing ice cap of the ‘shining mountain,’
which gets a starring role in the movie, is not an
appropriate poster child for global climate change.”
“Kilimanjaro, a trio of volcanic cones that penetrate high
into the cold upper troposphere, has gained and lost
ice through processes that bear only indirect
connections, if any, to recent trends in global climate.”
Hurricane Myths
USA Today, March 31, 2008: “Hurricanes and other
weather events are expected to last longer and be more
intense. That would mean bigger storm surges, more
damage to buildings and roads, and contaminated
food and water.”
Hurricanes
Hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), November 29, 2005, regarding Hurricane
Katrina and active 2005 hurricane season: "NOAA
attributes this increased activity to natural occurring
cycles in tropical climate patterns near the equator. …
NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal
signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane
activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse
warming."
Hurricanes
“We don’t see any new trend. There’s no link to global
warming that you can see at all.” – Dr. Chris Landsea,
National Hurricane Center, May 1, 2007, Miami Herald
Hurricanes
 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, March
2008: “A new technique for deriving hurricane
climatologies from global data, applied to climate
models, indicates that global warming should reduce
the global frequency of hurricanes…”
Floods
 Study of Great Plains precipitation and flooding finds
more precipitation during past few decades. However,
the best of all worlds: "fewer dry years over the last 10
years, as opposed to an increase in very wet years, were
the leading cause of the observed wet conditions.” –
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2002
Floods
 Mega-floods "almost certainly larger than historical
floods in the Mississippi watershed” have occurred
4700, 3500, 3000, 2500, 2000, 1200 and 300 years ago. –
Paleoceanography, 1999
Floods
 Scientists report a moderate rise in overall
precipitation during the 20 century but a decline in
extreme weather events, such as floods.
 “The conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less
extreme.“– Geophysical Research Letters, 1999
Upper Mississippi Floods
 Scientists report overall water flow in the Upper
Mississippi River is increasing, but the average water
flow during maximum flow events is declining. Once
again, the best of both worlds. – Quaternary Science
Review
Floods (U.S. precipitation – NCDC)
Tornadoes
“An Inconvenient Truth” claims global warming is
causing more tornadoes
Tornadoes
Sea Level
Sea Level Rise is Not Accelerating
Greenland
2006 study, Journal of Geophysical Research:
Researchers at the Danish Meteorological Institute
reported that temperatures during the last two full
decades in Greenland were colder than any decade
since the 1910s.
Greenland
 December 2005, Journal of Glaciology: Scientists
analyzed 10 years worth of data and reported, “the
Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins and
growing inland, with a small overall mass gain.”
Greenland
Africa
BBC News Online, August 20, 2002:
 “Global Warming Threatens Africa”
 “Reduced rainfall in the semi-arid Sahel region south
of the Sahara desert is another example of the effects
of pollution and climate change on Africa in the WWF
report.”
 Incorporated into “An Inconvenient Truth”
Africa
 New Scientist, September 18, 2002:
 “Africa’s deserts are in ‘spectacular’ retreat.”
 “The southern Sahara desert is in retreat, making
farming viable again in what were some of the most arid
parts of Africa. ... Burkina Faso, one of the West African
countries devastated by drought and advancing deserts
20 years ago, is growing so much greener that families
who fled to wetter coastal regions are starting to go
home.”
Africa
Africa is currently “experiencing an unusually
prolonged period of stable, wet conditions in
comparison to previous centuries of the past
millennium. … The patterns and variability of 20th
century rainfall in central Africa have been unusually
conducive to human welfare in the context of the past
1400 years.” - Geology, January 1, 2007
Africa
This phenomenon of a greening planet is not limited
to the southern Sahara desert. Satellite data from 19811999, reported in the September 16, 2001 issue of
Journal of Geophysical Research, found an 8-to-12
percent increase in vegetation across North America
and Eurasia. A subsequent comment in the same
journal, Journal of Geophysical Research, concluded
that a concurrent rise in atmospheric CO2 was
primarily responsible for the increased vegetation.
Natural CO2 levels
Relative Funding
Iowa Summer Record Highs
All-Time Record Highs – 50 States
Day-By-Day Record High Temps
Global High Temperature Records
Current Temps vs. 30 Years Ago
U.S. GHG emissions
(in teragrams of CO2 equivalent – source EPA)
Fact vs. Fiction
“We can say with high confidence that the earth will
warm from 0.7-2.2 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 30
years.” – Des Moines Register, June 21, 2002
Natural Variability?
“The human-made greenhouse gas climate forcing is
now relentlessly, monotonically, increasing at a rate
that overwhelms variability of natural climate
forcings.” – James Hansen, August 2008.
Is There Hope for Nuclear Power?
 Technologically, yes
 Westinghouse AP 1000
 Pebble Bed reactors
 Portable community reactors
 Politically, obstacles remain
 Obama says Yucca must be operating
 Momentum in states to repeal moratoriums
Thank You!
Any Questions?
James Taylor
[email protected]
941-776-5690