Transcript Slide 1
Drivers for a growing (?) European mining sector. Magnus Ericsson Thorium drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Industrial Technologies 2012, Aarhus, 19-21 June 2012 Are metals really needed? Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Special properties of metals • • • • • High strength Affordable cost Conduct heat and electricity Beautiful Indestructible Source: T. Graedel, Yale University. Copper use vs. GDP/capita Source: Häggström, Handelsbanken 2006. Copper use and urbanisation 100% Ряд13 90% China Urbanisation Urbanisation 80% India 70% USA Switzerland Germany 60% Sth Korea Indonesia 50% Philippines Japan 40% Brazil Pakistan 30% Zambia Chile Thailand 20% Russia 10% UK Malaysia 0% 1 10 Source: ICSG, Raw Materials Group 2011 100 Population (m) Population million 1000 10000 World Global mining – 19th/20th century 70 Europ % of global mining 60 USA 50 China 40 30 USSR 20 Austr 10 0 1850 6 reso count 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 What has happened in Europe? Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Iron ore production Mt 061030 Anton Löf Iron ore production Europe Mt 061030 Anton Löf Copper production kt 061030 Anton Löf Copper production Europe kt 061030 Anton Löf Gold production t 061030 Anton Löf Gold production Europe t 061030 Anton Löf 2000 1000 1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 USD/t (2005) Copper price 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 33 years -3.5%pa 40 years 2.3%pa 29 years -3.5%pa 10-15 years 2-3%pa ? 0 180 0 January 2001 May Sep January 2002 May Sep January 2003 May Sep January 2004 May Sep January 2005 May Sep January 2006 May Sep January 2007 May Sep January 2008 May Sep Jan/09 May/09 Sep/09 Jan/10 May/10 Sep/10 Jan/11 May/11 Sep/11 Iron ore prices 2001-December 2008 contract prices Carajas fines plus freight costs, 2009-2011 TSI 62 % 200 USD/t, cfr China 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2012 Copper price Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2012 Gold price Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2012 The future? Nickel drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Metal prices index 2012 Global steel growth Country/Region China 2000 127 236 Av. Growth, % 2010 2000 - 2010 625 658 17.51 India 26 924 66 848 9.96 Japan 106 444 109 600 1.02 South Korea 43 107 58 453 3.47 Emerging Pacific Rim 28 169 40 304 3.91 North America 135 353 111 798 -0.52 South America 39 110 43 775 1.59 184 925 176 982 -0.22 C.I.S 98 489 108 425 1.23 MENA incl. Turkey 30 074 57 413 6.65 RoW (Africa & Oceania) 16 690 16 839 0.48 836 521 1 416 095 5.47 Europe Total World 2015 902 671 6.00 102 854 9.00 121 007 2.00 64 853 2.00 49 036 4.00 112 920 0.20 53 259 4.00 176 982 0.00 119 710 2.00 79 020 5.00 17 264 0.50 1 799 577 20102030 3.3 % Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2011. 061030 Anton Löf 2020 1 152 062 5.00 158 254 9.00 121 007 0.00 69 518 1.00 62 584 5.00 114 054 0.20 67 973 5.00 176 982 0.00 132 169 2.00 100 851 5.00 22 034 5.00 2 177 489 2025 1 322 640 2.80 243 493 9.00 121 007 0.00 73 064 1.00 79 874 5.00 114 969 0.00 86 753 5.00 176 982 0.00 138 911 1.00 127 489 4.00 28 657 7.00 2 513 840 2030 1 518 473 2.80 374 644 9.00 121 007 0.00 76 791 1.00 112 028 7.00 114 969 0.00 121 676 7.00 176 982 0.00 145 997 1.00 155 109 4.00 40 193 7.00 2 957 870 av. Growth, % 2010 - 2030 4.1 4.05 9.0 9.00 0.5 0.50 1.4 1.38 5.3 5.25 0.1 0.14 5.3 5.25 0.0 0.00 1.5 1.50 5.1 5.10 4.5 4.48 3.3 Nordic ore production 2010-20 300 Mt 250 200 Sweden 150 Norway Greenland Finland 100 50 0 061030 Anton Löf Conclusions • Europe’s import dependency for iron ore, copper and base metals is seriously high. • These are the critical metals for Europe not small specialities like rare earths. • Nordic mining could be part of the solution. • Mining is growing in spite of the crisis. • This industry needs more attention from Europe to fulfill its potential role both as economic motor and a strategic industry. 061030 Anton Löf Thank you/Tack! Luleå University of Technology Raw Materials Group PO Box 3127 SE-169 03 Solna, Sweden Tel: +46-8-744 00 65 Fax: +46-8-744 0066 E-mail: [email protected] www.rmg.se Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Metals first isolated in Sweden/Finland Please visit www.rmg.se 061030 Raw Materials Group • Raw Materials Data, Metals/Coal/Iron Ore. • Strategy development: – Mining companies, equipment & service providers. • Mineral policy, investment promotion: – Governments, International organisations. • Pre-feasibility/Feasibility studies: – Financial institutions, companies. • Member of the global IntierraRMG group.