Transcript Slide 1

The Elderly Populations and Levels of
Aged Dependency in China and the United States:
Past, Present and Future
Dudley L. Poston, Jr.,
Hua Luo, &
Heather K. M. Terrell
Department of Sociology
Texas A&M University
College Station, TX 77843
[email protected]
1
Introduction
Population Growth Over Time in China and
the U.S.
Fertility Transitions in China and the U.S.
Aged Dependency in China and the U.S.
Age Dependency Ratios
Parent Support Ratios
Implications for China
2
China is the largest country in the world,
with an estimated population size in
2004 of 1,298,848,000.
The United States is the third largest
country in the world (after China and
India) with a population in 2004 of
293,028,000
3
In the world in 2000, there were over 606
million older persons (60 years and older),
and over 69 million oldest old (80 years and
older).
Of the world’s older population in the year
2000, over 21 percent of them (or almost 129
million) live in China.
Almost 8 percent (or almost 46 million) of the
world’s older population live in the U.S. in
2000.
4
Table 1. Total Population, Older Population,
and Oldest Old Population: World, China, and
the U.S., 2000 to 2050
World
China
U.S.
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Total
6,070,581,000
6,830,283,000
7,540,237,000
8,130,149,000
8,593,591,000
8,918,724,000
Older
606,424,000
759,750,000
1,021,976,000
1,348,294,000
1,630,891,000
1,907,249,000
Oldest Old
69,098,000
102,875,000
137,752,000
188,623,000
278,330,000
377,270,000
Year
2000
Total
1,275,217,000
Older
128,753,000
Oldest Old
11,397,000
2010
1,364,876,000
167,329,000
18,171,000
2020
1,429,473,000
240,602,000
26,510,000
2030
1,450,521,000
342,299,000
39,335,000
2040
1,438,934,000
396,664,000
63,804,000
2050
1,395,182,000
418,232,000
97,698,000
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Total
285,000,000
314,924,000
344,272,000
370,397,000
391,359,000
408,694,000
Older
45,928,000
56,933,000
75,708,000
90,516,000
97,038,000
104,088,000
Oldest Old
9,079,000
11,627,000
12,910,000
18,424,000
26,241,000 5
29,355,000
If the older population of China in the year of
2000 were a single country it would be the
eighth largest country in the world,
outnumbered only by the non-elderly
population of China (1.1 billion), and the
populations of India (almost 1.1 billion), the
United States (285 million), Indonesia (212
million), Brazil (172 million), Russia (146
million), and Pakistan (143 million) .
6
Of the 69 million oldest old in the world
in 2000, over 16 percent (or about 11.4
million) live in China.
Of the 69 million oldest old in the world
in 2000, 13.1 percent (or 9 million)
reside in the United States.
7
China and the U.S. experienced in the
1960s and 1970s very dramatic fertility
declines.
These transitions have produced, and
will continue to produce, unprecedented
increases in the older populations of the
two countries.
8
In 2020 there are projected to be over 1
billion older persons in the world;
almost one-quarter of them (almost 241
million) will be in China, and over seven
percent in the U.S.
By 2020, there will be almost 138
million oldest old people in the world,
with more than nineteen percent of
them living in China, and over nine
percent in the U.S.
9
By the mid-way point of this new
century (in 2050), there are
projected to be nearly two billion
older persons in the world out of a
total population of 8.9 billion.
Of these almost two billion older
persons, 418 million of them (nearly
22 percent) will be residing in China,
and 104 million (more than 5
percent) in the U.S.
10
The projected number of 418 million
older persons in China in 2050 is a
remarkably large number.
The number of older persons alive in
the world in 2000 (606 million) is
only 188 million more than the total
number of older persons projected
to be living in China in 2050 (418
million).
11
In the world in 2050, there are
projected to be over 377 million
oldest old people, with almost 26
percent (98 million) living in China,
and nearly 8 percent (29 million)
living in the U.S.
The almost 98 million oldest old
projected to be living in China in
2050 is more than 1.4 times larger
than the total number of 69 million
oldest old living in the entire world in
2000.
12
Most of China’s tremendous increases in
the last half of the last century occurred
between 1950 and 1980 and were due to
imbalances between mortality and
fertility.
China introduced fertility control programs
in the 1970s causing the birth rate to
plummet to below replacement levels in
the 1990s.
This very rapid fertility reduction is the
main cause of the unprecedented numbers
of elderly people projected for China for
the decades of the 21st century.
13
Chinese population growth and declines over
the almost twenty centuries since the time of
Christ have almost always been associated
with dynastic growth and decay.
The beginning of a new dynasty was followed
by a period of peace and order, cultural
development and population growth.
As population density increased, it often
exceeded the availability of food and the
struggle for existence was intensified. Then
there would come a period of pestilence and
famine and a consequent reduction in the size
of the population.
14
Europe
China
U.S.
2050
2025
2010
2000
1990
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1500
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1400
Population
(in millions)
Figure 1. Population of Europe*, China and
the U.S., 1400 to 2050
*NOTE: European parts of former USSR added to
Europe after 1990
15
For all the dynasties up until China’s last
dynasty, the Qing (1644-1911), China’s
population swayed roughly with the rise and
fall of a dynasty (most dynasties reigned for
about 200-300 years).
The population grew at the initial years of the
dynasty, but rarely exceeded 80 million.
Population size would then fall so that onethird or sometimes one-half of the original
population was decimated. Mortality then was
too high to allow much of an increase in
population.
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China's Population Growth, A.D. 0 - 2050
Between A.D. 0 to 2000, China has grown from 60 million to nearly 1.3 billion.
From 1400 to 1500, the size of the
Chinese population did not change
appreciably, growing only by 25
million.
It grew by another 50 million from
1500 to 1600
18
Since the mid-1700s after the establishment of
the Qing Dynasty, there were ever so slight
reductions in mortality so that the population
kept growing beyond the old limit of about 80
million.
The Qing was the first dynasty to bring about
and to maintain a population size much above
100 million.
By 1850 there were over 420 million people in
the country, six to eight times the traditional
level (of 60-80 million) that was the
demographic norm 200 years or so previously.
19
The Qing was the only dynasty to live up to the
perpetual Chinese ideal of “numerous
descendants.”
It is ironic that by achieving this ideal, not only
was the Qing wiped out, but China’s dynastic
system of almost four thousand years was
eradicated.
Previously, declines in population resulted in
the collapse of the dynasties. The Qing fell in
1911 because the population became too large.
20
When Mao Zedong and the Chinese
Communists took over the country in
1949, the population numbered about
550 million, a figure 30 percent higher
than 100 years earlier.
This figure of 550 million was about 10
times larger than China’s historical
equilibrium population of around 60
million.
21
Between 1950 and 1980, China
added about another 433 million to
its population (see Figure 2).
China’s population size of near 1.3
billion in 2000 is almost 10 times
the size of the mid-17th century
population of around 130 million.
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Figure 2. Population size (in thousands) in
China and the United States, 1950-2050
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
Year
China
20
50
20
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
0
19
50
Population
1,200,000
the U.S.
23
Here is another comparison. In the 300 years
from 1650 to 1950, the average annual
increase of China’s population was around 1.5
to 1.6 million; this is 80-100 times greater than
the annual increases in China before 1650.
Since 1949, the average annual increase in
population climbed to around 14 million per
year. In the 1960s -– the high growth years –average annual increase was as high as 22
million. Even with the reduction of the birth
rate in the 1970s, the average annual
population increases have been around 10
million.
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19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
Total Fertility Rate
Figure 3. Total Fertility Rates, China and the U.S.,
1950-2000
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Year
China
U.S.
25
In ancient China, an increase of 14
to 22 million people would took 700
to 1000 years.
In China in the 1960s, 1970s, and
1980s, a population increase of
between 14 and 22 million occurred
almost every year.
26
Population size in China is projected to
start tapering off in the second decade
of this new century at about 1.4 billion.
The United Nations projects that China
will reach its largest population size of
about 1.45 billion in 2030, and will then
begin to decline in size, falling back to
almost 1.4 billion in the year 2050.
27
The U.S. grew rapidly from 3.9 million in 1790
to 31.4 million in 1860. The population
increased approximately 30 percent per decade
from 1790 to 1860, which was amazing
considering that the growth rate in Europe at
the same time was less than half as large.
The numbers of the U.S. population more than
quadrupled from 1800 to 1850, more than
tripled from 1850 to 1900, and then almost
doubled from 1900 to 1950. In 1950, the U.S.
population exceeded 150 million.
28
The main reasons for the fast increase of the U.S.
population between 1790 and 1860 were high fertility
rates, land availability and annexation, and
immigration. Population growth was associated with
increases in national territory.
The land area of the United States in 1790 comprised
889,000 square miles. The Louisiana Purchase in 1803
nearly doubled this territory. The accession of Florida
in 1819 added still more land. Between 1840 and
1850, the territory of the United States was increased
by two-thirds through the annexation of Texas in
1845, Oregon in 1846 and the cession by Mexico in
1848. The addition of these new states brought with
them vast increases in the numbers of people.
29
The population of the United States
has quadrupled in the twentieth
century, going from 76 million in
1900 to well over 280 million in
2000.
Compared with the dynamics of the
Chinese population, the changes in
population size in the United States
have been gradual.
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Dependency and Aged Dependency in
China and the U.S.
A large number of elderly persons in
a population is not problematic if there
exists at the same time in the population
a large number of producers.
It is only when the ratio of elderly to
producers becomes high that a host of
economic, social and related problems
occur.
31
Dependency in the population is measured using the
ratio of persons aged 0-14 and persons aged 65 and over
to persons aged 15-64.
The numerator consists of persons who typically are not
employed, hence not serving actively as producers of
goods, material resources and sustenance.
The denominator, persons aged 15-64, contains the
productive members of the population, many of whom
are in the labor force, all of whom, in varying ways, are
producing foodstuffs, and related goods and services for
the population; this ratio is multiplied by 100 and refers
to the number of dependents in the population per 100
producers.
32
The total dependency ratio (TDR)
may be subdivided into:
a youth dependency ratio (YDR),
i.e., persons 0-14 divided by
persons 15-64; and
an aged dependency ratio (ADR),
i.e., persons 65+ divided by
persons 15-64.
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Figure 4. Youth Dependency Ratios, China and
the U.S., 1950-2050
80
70
60
40
30
20
10
20
50
20
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
0
19
50
YDR
50
Year
China
the U.S.
34
Figure 5. Aged Dependency Ratios, China and
the U.S., 1950-2050
40
35
30
20
15
10
5
Year
China
20
50
20
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
0
19
50
ADR
25
U.S.
35
Figure 6. Parent Support Ratios, China and
the U.S., 1950-2050
45
40
35
25
20
15
10
5
Year
China
20
50
20
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
0
19
50
Parent SR
30
U.S.
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End of Presentation
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