Transcript TELUS Land Use Model (TELUM)

TELUM
Interactive Software for Integrated
Land Use and Transportation Modeling
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Introduction

TELUM is a land use modeling
software package that can be used
for evaluating land use impacts of
regional transportation
improvement projects.

TELUM forecasts future location of
employment and households

Developed under the federal
TELUS grant as a standalone
modeling software.

TELUM features an integrated GIS
tool.
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
What Is a Land Use Model?
A land use model is a quantitative method which . . .
 Forecasts employment and population demand for
land in specific zones of a region;
 Calculates the amount of employment and population
that will be located;
 Calculates the amount of land that will be used by the
locating activities.
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Understanding TELUM – Spatial Interaction Model
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TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Motivation
 Majority of MPOs neither uses Land Use Models for regional
forecasting nor for providing input to travel models. This is
due to the lack of trained in-house personnel with experience
in land use planning*.
TELUM is developed as intuitive, interactive software
package with many user-friendly features. It is easy to
understand, provides tools for easy data entry and analysis,
and features Help System that provides instructions and is
able to guide and advise users throughout their analysis. It is
primarily developed for small and medium-sized MPOs.
* Determination of the State of the Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting: Findings of the Surveys of Metropolitan
Planning Organizations, April 7, 2006, Prepared for Committee B0090, TRB/National Research Council
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Why using TELUM?
 TELUM enables planners to perform regional land use
analysis by:
 Forecasting the employment and population that desire to
locate in specific zones of a region.
 Calculating the amount of employment and population that
will be allocated to each zone based on transportation
accessibility and underlying socioeconomic factors.
 Calculating the amount of land needed for locating
employment and residential activities.
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AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Advantages of TELUM
 Inputs consist of US Census data and supplemental data
commonly used by MPOs in regional planning process;
 User friendly interface makes it easy to navigate through
data input, model development, and forecasting process;
 A combination of hotlinks to internal help files, with
software wizards in a Knowledge Based Systems
approach leads the user through the many steps in model
implementation;
 Integrated GIS module allows mapping of the input data,
calibration results, and forecast results.
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Transportation Policy Analysis
 TELUM provides planners with the ability to compare various
transportation improvement scenarios:
 Planners can make changes in the transportation network
between runs and observe the resulting changes in land use
patterns;
 Planners can test impacts of different project pools on regional
land use patterns by applying different sets of impedances for
the same model year.
 TELUM outputs can be used as a starting point for trip
generation, trip distribution, and mode-split.
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Land Use Model Outputs – How can they help?
Output
Relevance and Use in Planning
Employment Density
Serves as a basis for estimating future payroll tax revenues, change of
zoning/land use, and improvements of the transportation network to
promote desired development scenario.
(forecasted for each zone and
employment category)
Household Density
(forecasted for each zone by
household income category)
Land Consumption
(forecasted for each zone by
household/employment
category)
Density Gradient
(measure of urban sprawl)
Serves as basis for estimating future property taxes, change of
zoning/land use and improvements of the transportation network to
promote desired location of residencies throughout the region.
Provides an estimate of intensity of land utilization by households and
employment by category, indicating how land use will change as a
result of location of population and jobs for different development
scenarios.
Provides basis for measuring change in household density as one
moves from the CBD to suburbs can help identify trends in long-range
regional plans
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
TELUM’s Role in Travel Demand
Forecasting
Economic Trends
Demographic Trends
TELUM
TELUM-Emp
Employment
Location
Transportation
Improvement
Transportation
Network
Travel
Demand Forecast
TELUM-Res
Household
Location
Network
Flows
TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL
Impedance
(Travel Time, Cost, etc.)
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
TELUM Modeling Process
 Data Preparation
 Program Installation
 Model Calibration
 Model Verification
 Preliminary Forecasts
 Model Validation
 Forecasts and Policy Tests
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CALIBRATION INPUT
DATA:
 Employment
 Households
 Land Use
 Travel Times/Cost
 CHECK FOR DATA
CONSISTENCY
 SYNTHESIZE MISSING
DATA
TELUM
CALIBRATION INPUT
CONTROLS:
 Initial Parameters
 Regional Rate / Ratios
 Calibration Controls
Modeling Process Schema
Legend
SELF CALIBRATION
CALIBRATED MODEL
PROCEDURE
PARAMETERS
Employment
Population
CALCULATE DEMAND
FOR EMPLOYMENT
LOCATION
 Regional Rates / Ratios
CALCULATE DEMAND
FOR RESIDENCE
LOCATION
TELUM PROCESS
COMPONENT
FORECAST INPUT DATA:
FORECAST CONTROLS:
 Regional Forecasts
EXTERNAL INPUT DATA
FOR THE MODEL
 Employment
 Households
 Land Use
 Travel Times/Cost
 CALCULATE LAND
DEMAND
 RECONCILE LAND
DEMAND WITH
AVAILABLE LAND
 FORECAST OUTPUT:
 Employment
 Households
 Land Use
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
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TELUM Software Modules
IDEU
Initial Data Entry Unit
DOPU
Data Organization and
Preparation Unit
TIPU
Travel Impedance Processing
Unit
MCPU
Model Calibration Processing
Unit
MFCU
Model Forecast Calculation
Unit
 IDEU – Basic information about the
region necessary to organize data.
 DOPU – Data entry and data
consistency checks.
 TIPU – Load and process travel
impedance data.
 MCPU – Self-calibration of
employment, household and land
consumption forecasting models.
 MFCU – Performs forecasts for the
baseline and user-defined policy
scenarios.
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
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Data Entry
IDEU and DOPU modules provide a user friendly,
interactive interface that helps the user define what kind of
data is available for the analysis region, and subsequent
data entry. Several data-checks are conducted along the
way to ensure data consistency and data integrity.
TELUM also provides tips for creating a dataset required for
a successful development and execution of a land use
model.
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
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IDEU Report
Summarizing the organization of regional socioeconomic data
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
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DOPU Data Entry Spreadsheet
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DOPU – Data Consistency Report
Statistical analysis of the dataset provided in DOPU spreadsheet
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DOPU – Map and Data Compatibility
TELUM checks for the compatibility of the dataset and regional map.
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Model Calibration – Report
A summary of the model calibration report
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Calibration Results – Statistical Analysis
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Forecasting – Data Check
Having led the user through the tasks of data preparation
and model calibration, the system performs an evaluation
of the calibration results and a verification check of all the
work to that point in the process.
The system then organizes the files for the subsequent
use in forecasting.
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Forecasting
Tracking input and output files and running the forecasting model
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Forecasting – Results
As forecasts are completed, the system provides various
tabulated summaries of the forecast results. In addition,
the system links to an ArcGIS software through MAPIT,
providing additional graphical analysis and display of
forecast results in the regional geography.
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Forecast Results
Forecast report summary tables
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Forecast Results
MAPIT generated maps of forecast growth and/or decline of employment and
households by zone
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Forecast Results
MAPIT generated maps of forecast sprawl indices
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
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Forecasting – Adding Constraints
User can define and test different development scenarios using forecast
constraints.
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
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Forecast Results – Comparing Scenarios
MAPIT: mapped changes in forecast results between different scenarios
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Current Program Status
 TELUM software package was released in January 2006. It was
recently implemented by the Pikes Peak Area COG in Fall 06 as
part of their new regional transportation plan. Missoula Office of
Planning and Grants and Pueblo Area Council of Governments
are currently testing TELUM. Used by Des Moines (IA) and Little
Rock (AR) MPOs.
 Software, User Manual, and Tutorial can be downloaded from
TELUS website: http://www.telus-national.org/products/telum.htm
 Software is free of charge.
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM
Contact
Dr. Lazar N. Spasovic
Director, TELUS Project
Tiernan Hall, Suite 287
New Jersey Institute of Technology
University Heights
Newark, NJ 07102
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: (973) 596-6420
www.telus-national.org
http://www.transportation.njit.edu
Thank you!
TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC
AND LAND USE SYSTEM