Transcript Session 5.

Session 5.
Balancing Act:
Reliability & Commercial Use
1
David Wojick, Consultant
“You’re not selling electrons;
if you sold bricks, you’d be selling
electrons.”
2
So what are we selling?
• A service
• A reliable service
• But what does that mean, “reliable”?
• I don’t know what “reliability” is, but I know what
it ain’t
• Blackouts, brownouts, etc. – when electric
service isn’t there when I want/need it
• (and I want/need it 24/7)
3
It’s Gotta be Really Reliable:
Jack Welch’s Six Sigma
(Defects Per Million Operations – DPMO)
Allowed 3.4 DPMO w/ 6Σ (5Σ is 320 DPMO)
Electricity: one hr. blackout every 33.4 yrs.
New York City – George’s Career (1962-2005):
• 43 yrs. – 3 blackouts – ’65, ’77, ’03 – 66 hrs.
• 175 DPMO – between 5 & 6Σ
Generation Adequacy:
• 1 day in 10 yrs. = 274 DPMO – close to 5Σ
Best system: as fail safe as possible
4
Pay for the Level of Reliability
You Need ?
Problems:
1. Nature of transmission systems prevent
providing better reliability to individual
customers.
2. Many different participants, and/or other
systems, may have to spend money to
improve reliability in one system.
5
Gallia est omnis….
• Distribution: Local blackouts – people can see
the cause – people react….
• Generation: Shortages, public appeals,
brownouts, rolling blackouts (local) – price
spikes – people react….
• Transmission: Failure of Bulk Power System –
cause not always obvious – total blackouts over
large areas – people react….
6
RELIABILITY:
CAN THE MARKET PROVIDE
• Distribution:
Yes, but mostly limited to large
industrial & commercial
• Generation:
Yes, thru massive DSM – but, will
people accept
• Transmission: No, NO, NO !!!
7
CAN THE MARKET PROVIDE
RELIABILITY
COST vs. RELIABILITY
• “Balance between cost & reliability” – no
such thing!
• Reliability a base line – non-negotiable
• Comparable to air safety
8
“The physics of the system hasn’t
changed; the business has.”
9
NERC and Its Role
A Short History of Reliability
Before 1965
• Individual system criteria
• Fair degree of cooperation – e.g., joint studies
• Some organized groups – e.g., PJM, MAIN
1965 to 1997
• Growth of Regional Reliability Councils (RRCs)
RRC Reliability Criteria
Culture of Cooperation & Coordination
Interregional groups, studies (e.g., MEN, VEM, VAST)
1968 – NERC established by the RRCs
Voluntary conformance – voluntary?!
“Peer pressure” – common interests
10
A Tortured Path
1992
• FERC: anyone can build & own generation
1993 to 1997
• Debate within NERC – “mandatory” vs. “voluntary”
Jan. 1997
• NERC Board: Conformance with NERC (& RRC) criteria
should be mandatory
July 1998
• NERC Board expanded – 9 “independent” members to
be added
• NERC to become NAERO
11
… and so to bed
BUT
• NERC/NAERO does not have legal authority to
mandate conformance, or apply sanctions
• neither does FERC
• ergo, Energy Bill
Are mandatory conformance & sanctions a
solution in search of a problem? Or, are they
required by the introduction of competition, and
the shift in culture
Anyway, already mandatory in NPCC (incl. NY)
12
Major Present Threat
Significant degradation of criteria in
proposed revision to NERC Standard FAC
008-1 thru 013-1 (a.k.a. Standard 600)
Future reliability is under grave threat
NERC “Version 0” Standards – spin
I Fear the Greeks Even When They Bear
New Paradigms
13
Three Steps to Reliability
(or maybe four)
1. Establish Criteria
•
Rigorous, thorough, clear and unambiguous, fair
and non-discriminatory, measurable
2. Plan & operate in conformance
•
•
•
•
•
Generators
Transmission owners
Electric Service Providers (ESPs), a.k.a. ESCOs
Power marketers
System Operators/control areas/ISOs/RTOs (or
their functional or moral equivalents)
3. Monitor & assess conformance
4. Sanction non-conformers
14
Reliability – National Level
• NERC (North American Electric Reliability
Council) – minimum reliability standards
• NAESB (North American Energy
Standards Board) – commercial standards
• Regional Reliability Councils – regional
standards – must be consistent with
NERC standards
15
Reliability – Regional & Local
• NPCC (Northeast Power Coordinating Council) –
regional standards/criteria
• NYISO (New York Independent System
Operator) – operate NYS system, run
commercial market
• NYSRC (New York State Reliability Council) –
develop reliability standards/criteria, assess
compliance with them
16
“Electricity isn’t a commodity; it's a
phenomenon.”
Joseph Swidler, former Chairman of Federal Power
Commission, and NY PSC
“Reliability is in everyone’s best interest.”
George C. Loehr
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