Transcript Slide 1

2013-14 Higher Education
Recommendations & Finance
Overview
November 15, 2012
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Finance Background Data
2
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Outcomes-Based Formula
3
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Outcomes-Based Formula
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Outcomes-Based Formula
Total Revenue per FTE
4 Year Institutions
Inflation Adjusted - 2011 Dollars
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
State Appropriations
Student Fees Less Grant Aid (TSAA, TELS, Pell)
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Grant Aid
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TN Outcomes-Based Formula
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Outcomes-Based Formula
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Outcomes-Based Formula
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Overview of Phase-In Period
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Outcomes-Based Formula
75.0%
Austin Peay
East Tennessee
Middle Tennessee
70.0%
Tennessee State
Tennessee Tech
University of Memphis
UT Chattanooga
65.0%
UT Knoxville
UT Martin
Chattanooga
60.0%
Cleveland
Columbia
Dyersburg
Jackson
55.0%
Motlow
Nashville
Northeast
Pellissippi
50.0%
Roane
Hold Harmless Policy
Phase-out Begins
Southwest
Volunteer
Walters
45.0%
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Est. 2013-14
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Cumulative Change in Appropriations at
Universities Due to the Formula
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
APSU
ETSU
MTSU
TSU
TTU
UM
UTC
UTK
UTM
Total Funding
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
2010-11
2011-12
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2012-13
2013-14
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Cumulative Change in Appropriations at
Community Colleges Due to the Formula
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
Chattanooga
Cleveland
Columbia
Dyersburg
Jackson
Motlow
Nashville
Northeast
Pellissippi
Roane
Southwest
Volunteer
Walters
Total Funding
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
2010-11
2011-12
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2012-13
2013-14
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TN Outcomes-Based Formula
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
TN Outcomes-Based Formula
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Financial Aid Background Data
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Income Profile
• Federal government’s Free Application for
Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA.
• Expected Family Contribution (EFC).
• A proxy for a student’s ability to pay for
college.
• Basis for awarding need-based financial aid
such as the Federal Pell grant and the
Tennessee Student Assistance Award (TSAA).
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Income Profile
70,000
2007
60,000
50,000
40,000
Of the 120,000 students who
filed a FAFSA in 2007, 52
percent were Pell eligible.
30,000
20,000
TSAA Eligible ($40K)
PELL Eligible ($60K)
10,000
0
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Income Profile
70,000
2011
60,000
50,000
40,000
2007
Of the 164,000 students who
filed a FAFSA in 2011, 62
percent were Pell eligible.
30,000
20,000
TSAA Eligible ($40K)
PELL Eligible ($60K)
10,000
-
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Income Profile
Of all community college students who
filed a FAFSA in 2011…
• 74 percent were Pell/TSAA eligible.
• 84 percent of adults students were Pell/TSAA
eligible.
• 52 percent had a zero EFC.
• From 2007 to 2011, the proportion of students who
had an EFC of zero increased from 34% to 52%.
• Northeast CC had the highest FAFSA completion
rate at 76%.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Income Profile
Of all university students who filed a
FAFSA in 2011…
• 53 percent were Pell/TSAA eligible.
• 32 percent had a zero EFC.
• From 2007 to 2011, the proportion of students who
had an EFC of zero increased from 20% to 32%.
• Tennessee Tech had the highest FAFSA completion
rate at 85%.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Financial Aid
2010-11 Recipients
Pell Grants
TSAA
Lottery Programs
Subtotals
Universities
53,893
13,101
48,966
115,960
CCs
56,962
9,626
23,747
90,335
TTCs
10,432
2,074
14,424
26,930
Total
121,287
24,801
87,137
233,225
Sources: THEC, TSAC, US Dept. Education
Out of 247,000 students in public higher
education, over 121,000 received a Pell
grant and more than 87,000 benefited from
the lottery program.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Financial Aid
Sources: THEC, TSAC, US Dept. Education
2010-11 Awards
Pell Grants
TSAA
Lottery Programs
Total Grants
Universities
$225,516,000
$22,500,000
$193,205,000
$441,221,000
CCs
$203,582,000
$8,817,000
$30,296,000
$242,695,000
TTCs
$29,099,000
$932,000
$15,321,000
$45,352,000
Total
$458,197,000
$32,249,000
$238,822,000
$729,268,000
Tuition Revenue*
Percent
$807,750,000
54.6%
$274,962,000
88.3%
$26,817,000
169.1%
$1,109,529,000
65.7%
*University Tuition Revenue is an estimate of undergraduate students only.
In 2010-11 public higher education collected
over $1.1 billion in gross tuition revenue,
which was offset by $730 million in federal
and state grants.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Debt
• Average debt for a TN university graduate
(public and private) was $20,700 in 2011.
• This was the 6th lowest debt level in the nation.
In 2005, TN had the 34th lowest debt level.
• 53 percent of TN graduates had debt, the 11th
lowest percentage in the nation.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Debt Analysis
28,000
Source: Project on Student Debt Database
$26,600
National Average
26,000
Tennessee
24,000
22,000
$20,703
20,000
18,000
$19,701
$18,259
TN Rank
34/46
26/46
25/51
22/49
18/49
9/50
6/48
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
16,000
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Debt Analysis
Institution Debt 2011
APSU
ETSU
MTSU
TSU
TTU
UM
UTK
UTC
UTM
$
Default
Rate*
20,335
20,984
21,484
22,984
9,952
25,629
20,926
13,845
23,328
16.6%
14.1%
12.3%
13.7%
3.9%
9.2%
8.0%
12.1%
16.1%
% LowIncome**
64%
56%
54%
79%
48%
63%
36%
44%
58%
*Default rates are the 2009 3-year cohort default rates
**All FAFSA filers in 2011 who were Pell Eligible.
Note: Debt figures for ETSU are from 2010.
Sources: Project on Student Debt Database and Federal Student Aid
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Student Debt Analysis
Institution
ChSCC
ClSCC
CoSCC
DSCC
JSCC
MSCC
NaSCC
NeSCC
PSCC
RSCC
STCC
VSCC
WSCC
Default Rate*
26.6%
21.0%
20.2%
21.7%
14.4%
21.8%
27.0%
20.7%
19.2%
12.1%
16.1%
% LowIncome**
75%
76%
68%
78%
79%
65%
79%
75%
65%
72%
88%
68%
71%
*Default rates are the 2009 3-year cohort default rates
**All FAFSA filers in 2011 who were Pell Eligible.
Note: JSCC and STCC do not participate in the federal student loan program.
Source: Federal Student Aid
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Low Student Debt Factors
• Emergence of lottery scholarship.
• Protection of TSAA from budget cuts.
• Institutional and TSAC default
prevention programs.
• Elevation of financial literacy
programs.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2013-14 Recommendations
Summary
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2013-14 Overview
• 2013-14 is the
and final year of
the phase-in period.
• Outcomes model is fully phased in
and the Hold Harmless provision is
fully phased out.
rd
3
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2013-14 Overview
• Outcome data has undergone significant
improvement over last two years.
• Annual meetings of Data Quality
Roundtable; Formula Data Committee;
Auditors meeting.
• Intensive efforts since summer 2012 to
align UT, TBR, THEC data.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Productivity Changes
Community Colleges
Outcomes
Students Accumulating 12 hrs
Students Accumulating 24 hrs
Students Accumulating 36 hrs
Dual Enrollment
Associates
Certificates 1-2 Year
Certificates <1 Year
Job Placements
Remedial & Developmental Success
Student Transfers
Workforce Training (Contact Hours)
2012-13
33,292
23,889
18,264
10,702
7,382
625
1,096
3,482
21,521
5,432
580,470
2013-14
30,595
22,545
17,734
11,957
8,312
676
1,220
3,757
23,560
5,767
729,085
Change
(2,697) -8.1%
(1,344) -5.6%
(530) -2.9%
1,255 11.7%
930 12.6%
51 8.1%
124 11.3%
276 7.9%
2,039 9.5%
336 6.2%
148,615 25.6%
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Productivity Changes
Community Colleges - Sub-Populations
Outcomes
Adults Accumulating 12 hrs
Adults Accumulating 24 hrs
Adults Accumulating 36 hrs
Adult Associates
Adult 1-2 Year Certificates
Adult <1yr Certificates
Low-income Accumulating 12 hrs
Low-income Accumulating 24 hrs
Low-income Accumulating 36 hrs
Low-income Associates
Low-income 1-2 Year Certificates
Low-income <1yr Certificates
2012-13
10,188
8,489
7,254
4,167
411
714
21,671
15,614
11,842
3,970
311
557
2013-14
9,260
8,084
7,198
4,657
443
801
19,283
14,578
11,501
5,148
354
636
Change
(928) -9.1%
(405) -4.8%
(56) -0.8%
490 11.8%
33 8.0%
87 12.2%
(2,388) -11.0%
(1,036) -6.6%
(341) -2.9%
1,179 29.7%
43 13.9%
79 14.2%
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Productivity Changes
Universities
Outcomes
Students Accumulating 24 hrs
Students Accumulating 48 hrs
Students Accumulating 72 hrs
Bachelors and Associates
Masters / Ed Specialists
Doctoral / Law Degree
Research and Service
Student Transfers
2012-13
19,949
18,773
19,713
18,656
5,793
968
315,862,178
2,919
2013-14
19,148
18,307
19,367
19,365
5,892
1,015
320,173,511
3,240
Change
(800)
(466)
(345)
708
99
47
4,311,333
321
-4.0%
-2.5%
-1.8%
3.8%
1.7%
4.8%
1.4%
11.0%
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Productivity Changes
Universities - Sub-Populations
Outcomes
Adults Accumulating 24 hrs
Adults Accumulating 48 hrs
Adults Accumulating 72 hrs
Adults Bachelors and Associates
Low-income Accumulating 24 hrs
Low-income Accumulating 48 hrs
Low-income Accumulating 72 hrs
Low-income Bachelors and Associates
2012-13
1,374
1,869
2,947
6,522
9,565
8,746
9,255
7,685
2013-14
1,269
1,777
2,901
6,707
8,894
8,460
9,056
8,901
Change
(105)
(91)
(46)
185
(670)
(285)
(199)
1,217
-7.6%
-4.9%
-1.6%
2.8%
-7.0%
-3.3%
-2.1%
15.8%
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2013-14 Recommendation
Summary - Operating
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
State Appropriation
Recommendations
• $35.5M to fund outcome growth.
• $14M for Non-formula units.
• 33.6M for TSAA financial aid.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Outcomes Formula Analysis
East Tennessee State University
Component Impact on 2013-14 State Appropriations
Baseline*
Students Accumulating 24 hrs
Students Accumulating 36 hrs
Students Accumulating 48 hrs
Bachelors and Associates Degrees
Masters and Ed Specialists Degrees
Doctoral and Law Degrees**
Research and Service
Transfers Out with 12 hours
Degrees per 100 FTE
Six-Year Graduation Rate
Faculty Salary
Maintenance and Operation
Equipment
Performance Funding
Out of State Tuition
Total Increase
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
519,700
(54,600)
(57,000)
69,500
848,500
180,000
121,400
284,300
22,100
34,600
(2,300)
877,400
450,600
48,600
35,100
(852,400)
2,525,500
Weights
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
25.0%
15.0%
7.5%
12.5%
5.0%
10.0%
10.0%
*Baseline represents the change in appropriations in 2013-14 if no formula elements had changed at
all for the institution.
**Does not include medical degrees awarded at ETSU College of Medicine.
Tennessee Higher Education Commission
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State Appropriation
Recommendations
• $15.7 for TTC/CC Equipment
Replenishment.
• $1M for Higher Education
Innovation Fund.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2013-14 Recommendation
Summary - Tuition
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tuition Recommendations
• Affordability and financial aid;
• Student income profile;
• Institutional revenues and cost
inflation.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tuition Comparisons
Resident
Undergrad
APSU
ETSU
MTSU
TSU
TTU
UM
UTC
UTK
UTM
CCs
Fees 12-13
$6,918
$6,997
$7,492
$6,702
$7,000
$8,234
$7,212
$9,092
$7,042
$3,684
Peer Fees
2012-13
$6,657
$6,825
$7,087
$7,239
$6,860
$8,829
$6,485
$9,447
$7,850
$3,471
+/- %
3.9%
2.5%
5.7%
-7.4%
2.0%
-6.7%
11.2%
-3.8%
-10.3%
6.1%
TN
Rank Peer Max Peer Min
7
$8,120
$4,553
7
$9,148
$4,553
5
$9,664
$5,040
9
$9,664
$4,553
7
$8,794
$4,553
10
$10,488
$6,330
3
$8,120
$4,553
7
$12,340
$6,989
9
$13,406
$6,199
7
$6,310
$2,090
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tuition Recommendations
• THEC Tuition Model as a guide.
• Revenue projections based on
inflation, enrollment changes.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tuition Recommendations
• Assuming $35.5M in new state funding;
• Assuming 3% inflation and no enrollment
growth, tuition would need to increase by:
• University average = 2.5%;
• Community colleges = 1.4%.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Tuition Recommendations
• Up to 6 Percent at Universities
• Up to 3 Percent at TTCs &
Community Colleges
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2013-14 Recommendation
Summary - Capital
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Capital Projects
• Continuation of 5 year plan.
• Institutional match component.
• Full project planning funded out of
institutional match.
• Alignment with CCTA.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Capital Projects
• $289M for seven capital outlay
projects.
• $104M for 69 capital maintenance
projects.
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Tennessee Higher Education Commission
2013-14 Higher Education
Recommendations & Finance
Overview
November 15, 2012
48
Tennessee Higher Education Commission