Transcript Introductory slide - University of California, Berkeley

How an Urbanizing Population is
Affecting Change in China’s Real
Estate Market
A view through the lens of 30 years of project work
17th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference
Anita Roth
Senior Economist, AECOM
[email protected]
@anitaroth12
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Introduction
Facts &
Figures
Our Work
Development
Trends
Overview
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Cepolina.com
Infoseekchina.com
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Wildchina.com
Thefakechina.com
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NASA Earth Observatory
Pearl River Delta (1979)
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NASA Earth Observatory
Pearl River Delta (2003)
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China’s
population is
1.4 billion
China (2011)
Total Population (2011/12)
4.3 times
~313 million
the size of the
U.S.’s
US (2012)
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Population Growth Rate
1.60
1.47% China
Percent Growth (%)
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.84%
1.13% U.S.
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.52%
0.20
0.00
1990
1995
Population Growth Rate
2000
2005
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2010
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1.4 billion
China (2011)
China’s Population (2011)
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>50% urban
(690 million)
Compared
with…
26%
In 1990
Urban Population
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in urban areas
>1 million
18%
(240 million)
Compared
with…
45%
(140 million)
In the
U.S.
Urban Population
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GDP Growth Rate
16.0
14.0
10.4%
Percent Growth (%)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
3.8% China
3.0%
2.0
0.0
-2.0 1990
1.9%
-4.0
U.S.
1995
2000
2005
-6.0
2010
8.2%
Expected in 2012
GDP Growth Rate
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$7.3 trillion (US$)
China (2011)
China’s
nominal GDP is
$15.1 trillion (US$)
48%
US (2011)
GDP (nominal)
that of
the U.S.’s
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12%
(US$710 billion)
Real Estate
contribution to
GDP
Real Estate Market as % of GDP
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AECOM – Who we are
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Water
Architecture
Building Engineering
Design + Planning
Environment
Energy
Government Services
Transportation
Program + Construction Mgmt.
AECOM – Who we are
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>30 years of working on projects in China
Working in China
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>30 years of working on projects in China
15 years with offices in China
Working in China
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>30 years of working on projects in China
15 years with offices in China
11 offices in China
Working in China
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>30 years of working on projects in China
15 years with offices in China
11 offices in China
~ 4,000 staff in China
Working in China
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AECOM’s Work in China
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Economic
Development
Regulatory
Main Drivers of Development
Political
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major trends in AECOM’s
project work in China*
*Disclaimer: None of these trends are
really TRUE!
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Increase in tourismoriented
development
Increase in urban
infill projects
Increased public
sector involvement
Increase in demand
for economic
services
Increase in
mixed use
development
Increase in client
sophistication
Notable Trends
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Suzhou Region, Jiangsu Province
Increase in Urban Infill Projects
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Increase in Public Sector Involvement
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Increase in Mixed Use
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Increase in Client Sophistication
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游客市场分析
接待过夜游客人数
过夜外国人游客
30,000,000
海外游客
国内游客
25,000,000
其他
25%
俄罗斯
35%
20,000,000
15,000,000
德国
4%
10,000,000
美国
5%
5,000,000
日本
6%
马来西亚
6%
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
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2003
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0
市场观察
韩国
7%
新加坡
11%
借镜
旅游饭店接待过夜游客的人数当中有重复计算的问题

AECOM公司估计2010年游客总人数约为860万
国内游客占总体市场97％，当中约50％是随团前往

铜鼓岭主题公园应以国内团为主要目标市场
亚洲游客占外国人市场一大部分,他们也是主题公园的重
要组成部分
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铜鼓岭主题公园可集中推广到亚洲市场
Increase in Demand for Economic Services
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Increase in Tourism-oriented Development
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Increase in tourismoriented
development
Increase in urban
infill projects
Increased public
sector involvement
Increase in demand
for economic
services
Increase in
mixed use
development
Increase in client
sophistication
Notable Trends
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Is there a Real Estate Bubble?
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谢谢
Thank you!
Anita Roth
Senior Economist, AECOM
[email protected]
@anitaroth12
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$8,382(US$)
China (2011)
China’s
Per capita GDP
(PPP) is
$48,386 (US$)
17%
US (2011)
GDP per Capita (PPP)
that of
the U.S.’s
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