Transcript Formulate Alternatives - University of Washington

Formulate Alternatives
Accomplishments

Put together a team

Established a shared vision of the status quo

Identified problems

Defined planning objectives

Defined measures of performance

Delineated constraints
Next We Formulate Alternatives
to the Status Quo
Alternative Formulation
is an Iterative Process
Brain
Storming
Relaxing
Constraints
Planning
Objectives
Performance
Measures
Alternative Formulation
Considering the
Improbable
Gaining New
Perspectives
Screening
Resisting Point
Designs
Alternative: A combination of measures that
change the way water is managed.
The Balancing Act of
Formulation
Alternative
Cost
Time
Selection
Process
Many Alternatives
Few Alternatives
Typical Alternatives
the Status Quo
Potential Alternatives - Supply
Increased Reservoir Capacity
New Source Construction
Basin Interties
Reallocation of Supplies
Emergency Pumping
to
Strategic Tactical
Typical Alternatives
the Status Quo
Potential Alternatives Operational Strategies
Conjunctive Use Strategies
Reservoir Operating Strategy Changes
Water Reuse
Changes In Triggering Mechanisms
Water Quality Management Strategies
to
Strategic Tactical
Typical Alternatives
to the Status Quo
Potential Alternatives Demand Modification
Water Use Curtailments
Public Information Campaigns
Water Pricing
Conservation Retrofits
Conservation Credits
Strategic Tactical
Typical Alternatives
to the Status Quo
Potential Alternatives - Regulatory
Instream Flow Requirements
Water Quality Regulations
Water Rights Transfers
Water Banking
Water Marketing
Strategic Tactical
Alternative Formulation is a
“Systems Process” That Proceeds From
the General to the Detailed

Alternatives should initially be presented as
general concepts

Estimates of impacts on planning objectives
should be made

Infeasible alternatives should be discarded

Inferior alternatives should be identified

Promising alternatives should be analyzed in
greater detail
Alternative Formulation Requires

Creative thinking

Collaborative effort

Compromise

Vision
What is the best alternative you have developed
to a difficult problem?
What is Brainstorming?
An effective process for initial generation of alternatives

Encourages participants to freely offer suggestions

Forbids premature criticism and analysis

Requires participation of experts, managers and
stakeholders

Improves response via collective thought

Forces the examination of a wide variety of ideas

Helps assure that no options are overlooked
Shared Vision Models are Valuable
Tools in Alternative Formulation

Performance measures allow managers and
stakeholders to envision the impacts of
proposed actions

Simple representations of alternatives can be
developed to determine general trade-offs and
evaluate system behavior
Shared Vision Models are Valuable
Tools in Alternative Formulation

More detailed models can be used to perform
detailed analysis at the design level

Model use enhances understanding of system
sensitivities and promotes conceptualization of
new alternatives

Alternatives can be fine-tuned through
sensitivity analysis
Generating Alternatives Requires
Creativity*

An attitude that allows you to search for ideas
and manipulate your knowledge and
experience

Trying various approaches

Using impractical
(* von Oech 1990)
Obstacles to Creative Thinking
Whack’s Ten Mental Locks
1. “THE” right answer
2. That is not logical
3. Follow the rules
4. Be practical
5. Play is frivolous
6. That is not my area
7. Avoid ambiguity
8. Don’t be foolish
9. To err is wrong
10. I’m not creative
Adopt an Appropriate Attitude

Make a commitment to generate multiple
strategies

Adopt a questioning attitude

Don’t be afraid to fail
Create the Proper Environment

Advocate collaborative thought

Eliminate distractions

Provide support to bring ideas into action
Take Action

Solicit input from different perspectives

Ask “What If?”

Examine the value of existing constraints

Delay criticism
Alternative Evaluation
and Refinement
The Formulation Process:

Fine-tunes alternatives

Defines components completely

Uses different evaluation criteria in
different stages
A Phased Assessment of Impacts
Preliminary Screening Criteria

Completeness: all the required plan elements
are specified

Acceptability: decision criteria and planning
constraints are satisfied
A Phased Assessment of Impacts
Intermediate Screening Criteria

Effectiveness: planning objectives are
addressed
Detailed Assessment

Efficiency: a high ratio of plan outputs to plan
inputs
Activities in Detailed Evaluation

Risk assessment

Economic analysis (NED, RED,
Incremental Cost)

EQ and OSE account quantification
Activities in
Alternative Refinement
Alternative Refinement is a process of:

Specification - defining the details

Optimization - enhanced by the
understanding of system sensitivity
Summary
 Alternative
formulation is an iterative cycle of
generating, screening, and refining alternatives that
proceeds at increasing levels of detail.
 Creative
thinking promotes the identification of
effective and innovative solutions to planning problems.
 Planning
Objectives, Metrics and Accounts are used to
assess the completeness, acceptability, effectiveness, and
efficiency of a proposed plan.
Exercise