Transcript Slide 1

The State of the Church
in Idaho
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Idaho, and what the complete “State of
the Church in Idaho” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to
encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss
together the missional challenges in Idaho that the Church
faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for
immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UID20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Idaho Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Idaho?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Idaho
will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Idaho
has an attendance percentage (11.4%) that is
much lower than the average for the nation
(18.7%), one of the lowest in the nation.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
23.3%
GA
AL
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in Idaho.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7
15.8%
Boundary
9.5%
Bonner
Idaho Counties
2000 Percentage
of Population at
Worship in
All Christian
Churches on
a Given Sunday
Blue = Lowest
Rose = Middle
Beige = Highest
11.3%
Kootenai
13.2%
Shoshone
14.9%
Benewah
10.4%
12.8%
Latah
Clearwater
16.6%
Nez Perce
28.7%
Lewis
20.2%
Idaho
11.7%
0.0% to 6.0%
6.0% to 12.9%
12.9% to 29.7%
13.2%
Adams
Lemhi
13.0%
Valley
17.3%
Washington
1.6%
Custer
12.9%
Payette
2.9%
1.8%
Clark
Fremont
1.2%
15.7%
0.3%
1.2%
Boise
Gem
12.7%
Madison
Jefferson
1.7%
1.3%
Teton
Butte
Canyon
13.6%
8.5%
0.4%
5.8%
6.7%
Ada
Elmore
Camas
Blaine
Bonneville
8.3%
Gooding
Lincoln
10.9%
14.0%
8.9%
Minidoka
Power
Jerome
6.3%
Owyhee
4.4%
Bingham
11.5%
6.0%
5.7%
Caribou
Bannock
16.4%
6.3%
Twin Falls
Cassia
0.9%
0.9%
Oneida
5.4%
Franklin
Bear Lake
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Idaho. The first map shows the population
of each county. The second map shows the
growth or decline in population for each
county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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9,871
Boundary
36,835
Bonner
Idaho Counties
2000 Population by
County
108,685
Kootenai
9,171
13,771
Benewah
Shoshone
34,935
8,930
Latah
Clearwater
37,410
Nez Perce
3,747
Lewis
0 to 8,930
8,930 to 20,578
20,578 to 300,905
15,511
Idaho
3,476
7,806
Adams
Lemhi
7,651
Valley
9,977
Washington
4,342
20,578
Payette
Custer
15,181
6,670
Gem
Boise
11,819
Clark
Fremont
27,467
19,155
131,441
2,899
Canyon
Butte
300,904
29,130
991
Ada
Elmore
Camas
18,991
Blaine
Jefferson
5,999
Teton
82,522
Bonneville
41,735
4,044
Lincoln
20,174
18,342
10,644
Madison
Bingham
14,155
Gooding
Owyhee
1,022
Minidoka
Jerome
64,284
Twin Falls
7,304
7,538
Caribou
75,565
Power
Bannock
21,416
Cassia
6,411
4,125
Oneida
11,329
Franklin
Bear Lake
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Idaho in 1990 and 2000.
The third slide shows the growth or decline in
the percentage of the population for each
ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Idaho
Non-Hispanic White
Hispanic
5%
Non-Hispanic Black
0%
Non-Hispanic Black
Asian
1%
Non-Hispanic White
© 2004 by David
T. Olson
94%
Sample - Not for Public Use
Hispanic
Asian
13
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Idaho 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
57.7%
60.0%
56.8%
53.1%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-4.6%
-10.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Idaho in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have grown
significantly in attendance, nearly keeping up with
population growth. Catholics have also increased
and the Mainline has stayed the same.
Unfortunately, while overall worship attendance has
increased, population has grown at a faster rate. A
more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or
declining influence is the percentage of the
population attending church on any given weekend,
shown in the second graph.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
Idaho Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
160,000
146,867
140,000
124,287
120,000
100,000
80,000
83,095
65,033
60,000
34,070
40,000
24,854
39,359
24,083
20,000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Idaho in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Idaho 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
6.4%
1.9%
3.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
88.6%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Idaho - Change in Worship Attendance by Percentage of the
Population - 1990 & 2000
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-0.6%
-8.1%
-10.1%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-24.6%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total
The 2 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Idaho. The Pie
Chart shows the variety of denominational
strength in Idaho. The second chart shows
that all groups have declined with the
exception of the Pentecostals.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
25
1990 & 2000 Idaho Average Church Attendance
900
794 794
800
700
600
500
1990 Idaho
2000 Idaho
386
400
1990 US Average
2000 US Average
296
300
172 175
200
108
128 124 131
100
123
112 115
87
141
84
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
26
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Idaho in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
28
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
2.1%
Boundary
2.2%
Bonner
Idaho Counties
2000 Percentage
of Population at
Worship in
Catholic
Churches on
any Given Sunday
Blue = Lowest
Rose = Middle
Beige = Highest
2.5%
Kootenai
2.8%
Shoshone
5.7%
Benewah
3.4%
2.2%
Latah
Clearwater
4.6%
Nez Perce
3.6%
Lewis
10.5%
Idaho
0.0% to 1.8%
1.8% to 3.1%
3.1% to 11.5%
2.4%
Lemhi
1.8%
2.8%
Adams
Valley
4.7%
Washington
0.5%
2.9%
Payette
Custer
1.5%
Clark
Fremont
0.9%
3.1%
Gem
0.2%
Jefferson
Boise
0.5%
2.3%
Canyon
0.4%
0.2%
0.4%
Madison Teton
Butte
3.5%
2.2%
0.4%
3.3%
Ada
Elmore
Camas
Blaine
2.3%
2.4%
Owyhee
Bingham
1.4%
Gooding
0.0%
2.8%
Bonneville
Lincoln
4.0%
4.6%
Jerome
Minidoka
3.6%
2.6%
Power
1.8%
Bannock
4.4%
Twin Falls
Caribou
1.8%
Cassia
0.3%
0.1%
Oneida
3.2%
Franklin
Bear Lake
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 12 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 32 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
32
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Idaho between 1990 and 2000. For
evangelicals, 17 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 21 counties declined. For mainline
churches, 5 counties grew in attendance percentage,
while 37 counties declined. For Catholics, 14 counties
grew in attendance percentage, while 29 counties
declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
34
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
-30.5%
Boundary
-16.5%
Bonner
Idaho Counties
1990 - 2000 Growth or
Decline in Percentage
of the Population at
Worship in Mainline
Churches on any
Given Sunday
Blue = Decline
Rose = Growth
-22.1%
Kootenai
-29.7%
Shoshone
24.5%
Benewah
-9.2%
-8.9%
Latah
Clearwater
-29.8%
Nez Perce
-61.8%
Lewis
2.8%
Idaho
Decline
Growth
No data
-6.4%
-10.7%
Adams
Lemhi
-17.8%
Valley
18.5%
Washington
35.4%
233.2%
-34.0%
Payette
Clark
Custer
Fremont
-55.2%
17.3%
231.8%
-16.9%
Boise
Gem
-18.7%
Jefferson
-25.8%
Madison
Canyon
-11.2%
-50.0%
-58.9%
Ada
Elmore
Camas
-15.1%
Blaine
Bonneville
44.1%
-34.3%
Lincoln
7.5%
Owyhee
-12.6%
Bingham
16.8%
Gooding
-38.9%
120.2%
-6.0%
Minidoka
Power
Jerome
-100.0%
60.5%
Teton
Butte
-32.5%
Caribou
Bannock
35.2%
-47.5%
Twin Falls
Cassia
-50.8%
-40.7%
Oneida
417.6%
Franklin
Bear Lake
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Idaho in the past decade. There was a net
gain of 33 churches. However, 288 churches
were needed to keep up with population
growth from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
38
Increase in Churches in Idaho Between 1990 & 2000
288
300
250
200
150
100
46
33
50
0
0
-13
-50
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total Gain
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio of
Churches to Population
The State of the Church in
Idaho . . .

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Because of the relatively low percentage of church attendance in
Idaho and recent growth in attendance in both Evangelical and
Catholic churches, the church has both great opportunities and great
challenges.
Church attendance has grown for Evangelicals and Catholics. The
Evangelical church has grown most significantly, having grown 28%
over the last 10 years (the Catholic church has grown by 16%).
However, because of population growth, the percentage of the
population attending church has been declining across the board.
This resulted in a 8.1% loss in the state-wide percentage of the
population that attended church between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the
number of churches in Idaho. Two hundred and fifty-five additional
churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to
compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for
additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Idaho Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UID20.htm

The Complete Boise Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Boise.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Idaho and Boise Powerpoints) is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/ID0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
Information on the
Information
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The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
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For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
[email protected].
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
44