Transcript Effects of Climate Change on Water Management Strategies

Has Idaho Bitten Off More
Than It Can Chew?
Climate Change Impacts in the Snake
River Basin
CIG Seminar - May 27, 2004
Nathan VanRheenen and Richard N. Palmer
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
-University of Washington-
www.tag.washington.edu
Politically Incorrect Title:
Future Streamflow Scenarios and
System Management in the Face of:
Dwindling fish stocks
 Thirsty farmers
 Demanding energy users
 Effective lobbyists
 Government “solutions”
 Climate change
Tragically slow decision-making processes

In the beginning …
Colsim, Alan Hamlet

Developed to investigate
climate change impacts on
Columbia River Basin water
resources



Fish, Power, Irrigation, M&I
Very effective for Col R main
stem
Major Drawback

Snake River Basin
inadequately represented



Most significant tributary
427 TAF Flow Aug. rule
Our Goal
(Palmer, Lettenmaier,
VanRheenen, Hamlet)

Develop a well-represented
Snake River model of similar
scale and usefulness of Colsim
Goals of Research

What are the long-range impacts of climate
change on the managed system?

Goal: Develop a model that incorporates current
and future operating rules and management
strategies


Simulation Model of Snake River Basin (SnakeSim)
How can the potential impacts of climate
change be mitigated?

Goal: Develop a model that provides the “best”
management strategy for SRB users

Optimization Model of SRB (SnakeOpt)
Background – Snake River Basin






Snake River – 1000 miles long
20 major reservoirs
14 MAF storage
17 MAF demands/water rights
700 MW hydropower capacity
Brief history
Snake River Basin to Brownlee
Snake River Plain Aquifer
Political Landscape





Many users
Many opinions
Scientific controversy
Established positions
Political activism
Political Landscape

No More Ignoring the Obvious – Idaho Sucks
Itself Dry – HCN, 2/95


“The department has handed out water rights and
groundwater permits as if there’s no tomorrow."
"The fish were there first, but they didn’t fill out the (water
rights) forms."
Political Landscape

1995 – BOR agrees to provide 427 TAF/yr for
flow augmentation


Goal likely to be met 80% of years
Irrigation shortages that result


72 TAF in ave years, 335 TAF in dry years
427 TAF goal unmet in last 3 yrs due to drought
“Flow augmentation is a failed experiment that has
been scientifically discredited and should be
dropped.” - Water Coalition President, Oct 2003
Political Landscape





Snake River water right moratorium ends, but
permits will not be processed – DOE, 7/99
To Breach or Not to Breach – HCN, 2/00
Salmon Plan Calls for Sacrifices, Federal
Remedies Contain Something for All Sides to
Criticize – SSR, 7/00
Dredging Plans Stall on the Snake River – HCN,
3/03
Andrus says Dams a Problem, but Breaching
is Impractical – SSR, 9/03

Calls for “Dramatically revamping river management policies”
Political Landscape

Advocates file suit to help protect fish
– SSR, 1/17/04


Fish Lobby: “Operation of the bureau's upper Snake
projects has a profound impact on the survival of Snake
River salmon, and even affects fish downstream in the
Columbia.”
Water Coalition Lobby: “It's an unfortunate reality that
they're fixated on trying to secure Idaho water and send
it downriver for a failed experiment.”
Political Landscape

Snake River Basin Adjudication

May 15, 2004 - ID, BOR reach agreement with
Nez Perce after 10 years of negotiations

Agreement


Tribe
 50 taf water right for tribal lands, dated 1855
 $23M for new sewer and water system
 $50M trust for land/water acquisition + $7M land
200 taf of Dworshak storage for summer flow aug
 427 taf Flow Augmentation Rule nearly “guaranteed”
Snake River Models
Changes in Mean
Temperature and
Precipitation or Bias
Corrected Output
from GCMs
SnakeSim
VIC
Hydrology Model
SnakeOpt
Clarkston
Dwr4
DWR3
Jackson
Henry’sFork
Dwr3
Release
Dwr2
Dworshak
Dworshak
Jackson
Oxbow
Island
Park
DWR
Release
WD01-3
Release
Release
Anderson
WD01-1
JSK
WD01-4
ISP
Hell’s
Canyon
PAL
PAL
Isp2
WD01-2
Cascade
Anderson
Pal2
Release
BRN
WD01-7
Release
Release
WD65-1
WD65
WD01-8
WD01-5
Pal3
WD01-9
WD63-1
WD65-2
Palisades
WD01-6
WD01
AND
Cascade/
Deadwood
Brownlee
Release
Rir2
Release
WD63-2
WD63
Arrowrock/
Lucky Peak
Cdw2
CJS3
Cjs3
Release
WD63-3
WD01-10
WD01-17
Release
ALP
WD01-14
CJS2
WD01-16
Cjs2
WD01-13
Blackfoot
WD01-12
Blackfoot
WD27-1
WD01-15
Pal5
WD02
WD02-2
Ririe
Ririe
Pal4
WD01-11
CDW
ALP
WD27
WD02-1
Mil2
Release
Release
CJ Strike
Swan Falls
Cjs
Release
Milner
Hagerman
King Hill
Dike
MIL2
Wiley
Bliss
Upper Salmon A&B
Shoshone
Twin Falls
Release
Release
Lake
Walcott
Legend
American
Falls
Reservoir
AMF
PAL5
Node
Power Plant
Reach
Owyhee
Fish Target
Flood Target
Irrigation District
Owyhee
Delivery
PNW Climate Change Scenarios
Delta T, 2020s
Delta T, 2040s
5
5
~ + 1.7 C
~ + 2.5 C
4
hadCM2
3
hadCM3
2
PCM3
ECHAM4
1
Degrees C
Degrees C
4
mean
0
hadCM2
3
hadCM3
2
PCM3
ECHAM4
1
mean
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
-1
F
M
A
Precipitation Fraction, 2020s
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Precipitation Fraction, 2040s
1.75
1.75
1.5
1.5
hadCM2
hadCM3
1.25
PCM3
1
ECHAM4
Fraction
Fraction
M
-1
hadCM2
hadCM3
1.25
PCM3
1
ECHAM4
mean
mean
0.75
0.75
0.5
0.5
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Somewhat wetter winters and perhaps somewhat dryer summers
Snake System Flows – Jackson Lk
Flow at Jackson Lake
thousand acre-feet
400
350
base
300
comp2020
250
comp2040
200
150
100
50
0
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Snake System Flows – Milner
Flow at Milner
2500
thousand acre-feet
base
2000
comp2020
comp2040
1500
1000
500
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Snake System Flows – Boise/Payette
Flows into Boise and Payette Rivers
1200
base
thousand acre-feet
1000
comp2020
800
comp2040
600
400
200
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Snake System Flows – Dworshak R.
Flow at Dworshak
1200
base
thousand acre-feet
1000
comp2020
800
comp2040
600
400
200
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Snake System Flows – Clarkston
Flow at Clarkston
10000
thousand acre-feet
9000
base
8000
comp2020
7000
comp2040
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Overall Streamflow Trends - comp2020
40%
120%
20%
90%
60%
0%
30%
-20%
40%
Aug
Jun
Apr
Feb
20%
Dec
-60%
Oct
Aug
Jun
Apr
0%
-20%
40%
10%
-40%
0%
-10%
Aug
Jun
Apr
Feb
-30%
Dec
-20%
Oct
Aug
-20%
Jun
20%
Apr
0%
Feb
30%
Dec
20%
Aug
Jun
Apr
Feb
60%
Dec
-40%
80%
Oct
100%
Oct
Feb
Dec
-30%
Oct
-40%
60%
0%
SnakeSim Operations Model
SnakeSim Operations Model


Purpose: Measure the projected impacts of
climate change on SRB water resources
Considers



Major surface water features
Accepted management practices/rules
System uses


e.g., flood control, irrigation, fish, hydropower
Groundwater/Surface water interactions
SnakeSim – Upper Snake Storage
Upper Snake Storage
4500
base
comp2020
thousand acre-feet
4000
comp2040
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
SnakeSim – Middle Snake Storage
Middle Snake Storage
thousand acre-feet
2000
base
comp2020
comp2040
1600
1200
800
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
SnakeSim – Boise/Payette Storage
Boise/Payette Storage
thousand acre-feet
base
comp2020
1400
comp2040
1000
600
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
SnakeSim – Dworshak Storage
Dworshak Storage
3000
base
thousand acre-feet
comp2020
comp2040
2600
2200
1800
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
SnakeSim – Snake System Storage
Total Snake Storage
thousand acre-feet
11500
11000
base
10500
comp2020
comp2040
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Overall Storage Trends - comp2020
% Change in STO - Upper Snake
5%
% Change in STO - SRB Storage
5%
-5%
0%
10%
Aug
Jun
Apr
Feb
-5%
Oct
0%
Dec
Aug
Jun
Apr
Feb
5%
Dec
-10%
15%
Aug
-5%
Oct
Jun
Apr
Feb
Dec
% Change in STO - Middle Snake
Oct
-15%
SnakeSim – Groundwater Response


BOR estimates SRPA
elev decreases 40 feet in
next 50 years due to
irrig. restrictions
Impacts of mgmt likely
far greater than impacts
of climate change on gw
base
thousand acre-feet

Recharge/discharge
change as irrigation
patterns change
Decreases in irrigation
result in decreases in
recharge and discharge
2000
comp2020
comp2040
1500
1000
500
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
SRP Aquifer Discharge to Snake River
0
Change from Base Case (taf)

Flow at Milner
2500
-1
comp2020
-2
comp2040
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Snake River Plain Aquifer
SnakeSim – Implications

Nature of flow shifts due to climate change are
significant…





Water quality and fish implications
System operations implications
Need to investigate impacts on water rights system and
conjunctive uses
Managed recharge as a cc mitigation strategy
But, “best” mitigation techniques aren’t known
SnakeOpt


Purpose: Develop a model that provides the “best”
management strategy for SRB users
Considers


Major surface water features
System uses




e.g., flood control, irrigation, fish, hydropower
Groundwater impacts
5 Major Irrigation Districts
Economic Objective Function
Clarkston
Dwr4
DWR3
Jackson
Henry’sFork
Dwr3
Release
Dwr2
Dworshak
Dworshak
Jackson
Oxbow
Island
Park
DWR
Release
WD01-3
Release
Release
Anderson
WD01-1
JSK
WD01-4
ISP
Hell’s
Canyon
PAL
Cascade
PAL
Isp2
WD01-2
Anderson
Pal2
Release
BRN
WD01-7
Release
Release
WD65-1
WD65
WD01
AND
Cascade/
Deadwood
WD01-8
WD65-2
WD01-5
Pal3
WD01-9
WD63-1
Brownlee
Palisades
WD01-6
Release
Rir2
Release
WD63-2
WD63
Arrowrock/
Lucky Peak
Cdw2
CJS3
Cjs3
Release
WD63-3
WD01-10
WD01-17
Pal4
WD01-11
Release
CDW
ALP
WD01-14
CJS2
WD01-16
Cjs2
WD01-13
Blackfoot
WD01-12
Blackfoot
WD27-1
WD01-15
Pal5
WD02
WD02-2
Ririe
Ririe
ALP
WD27
WD02-1
Mil2
Release
Release
CJ Strike
Swan Falls
Cjs
Release
Hagerman
King Hill
Dike
MIL2
Wiley
Bliss
Upper Salmon A&B
Shoshone
Twin Falls
Release
Release
Milner
Lake
Walcott
Legend
American
Falls
Reservoir
AMF
PAL5
Node
Power Plant
Reach
Owyhee
Fish Target
Flood Target
Irrigation District
Owyhee
Delivery
SnakeOpt - Approach


LP/SLP Decomposition
Objective Function


5-yr Model Optimum
Redefine constraints,
Add Value Judgments
1-yr Model Optimum
5-year Model
Maximize
Redefine constraints
Z=
Flood control benefit
+ Environ. benefit
+ Farming profit
+ Hydropower profit
 Subject to

Inflows, PET, Precip,
Crop values and costs,
Energy demand,
Groundwater
Etc.
1
2
3
4
5
Year
6
7 ..
n
SnakeOpt - Approach


LP/SLP Decomposition
Objective Function

5-yr Model Optimum
Redefine constraints,
Add Value Judgments
1-yr Model Optimum
1-year Model


Redefine constraints
Redefine constraints
with 5-year model
month 12 conditions
Add value judgments to
obj fn components
Etc.
1
2
3
4
5
Year
6
7 ..
n
SnakeOpt - Approach
2 Applications
1.
Redefine constraints,
Add Value Judgments
Long-Range Planning


2.
5-yr Model Optimum
1-yr Model Optimum
20-40 yrs to planning
horizon
Evaluate long-term
optimal system
operation strategies
Redefine constraints
Annual Planning


Given 3-5 year
forecast and predicted
ENSO/PDO states
How much water can
irrigators, utilities, and
fish get in the next
year to ensure a
sustainable future?
Etc.
1
2
3
4
5
Year
6
7 ..
n
SnakeOpt – 1st Cut
427 TAF met
(no hydropower)
SnakeOpt - Demonstration


No hydropower due to running SLP time
No flood control costs/benefits


Loose Flow/Storage constraints
No environmental costs/benefits

Min flow target constraints
Integrated SnakeSim/SnakeOpt Framework

Purpose


To test optimal management strategies in the
simulated system and evaluate their “true”
effectiveness
Approach

Perform rigorous sensitivity analysis in SnakeSim
around optimal values to generate tradeoff curves
for management
Integrated SnakeSim/SnakeOpt Framework

Preliminary feedback from IDWR as to the
general approach and purpose



“Potentially of tremendous value”
Allow first glimpses into impacts of “shifting uses”
Adaptation of approach to other regional
water suppliers
SRB Modeling Effort - Horizon

End June


Complete SnakeOpt and integrated
SnakeSim/SnakeOpt model
Mid June

Incorporate 85-year streamflows into SnakeSim
and SnakeOpt


Improved ET calculation
June, July


Interview ID water users for value judgment data
Meet with IDWR to discuss results, etc.