Transcript Evolution by Region - Pennsylvania State University

Dynamic Model
• Neoclassical production function
– General Form,
• Output comes from capital, labor, and technology level
• Notice that A is only measured as residual
– Useful to have a specific production function,
Yt  At Kt L1t
– Here  is capital’s share of national income
• Notice that all income goes to capital or labor
Labor and Capital Shares
Dynamic Model (cont.)
• It is useful to think about output per worker
• In per-worker terms,
• Or
• Graphically, we have
Neoclassical production function
Dynamic Model (cont.)
• Agents live two periods,
– Save and work when young, spend when old
• What do agents earn?
– If markets are competitive w = marginal product of labor
– Given our production function, this is
• Notice that wages rise when k increases but less
than proportionally
Capital
• What about the return to capital?
• If markets are competitive, then the r equals the
marginal product of capital:
– Notice that as k rises r falls. This is just diminishing
marginal productivity
• Notice that a rise in A (whatever that is) raises
both wages and the return to capital
– So it is good!
Accumulation
• Assume that savings is proportional to wages
– Simplifying assumption – (shouldn’t it depend on r?). Let 
be the fraction of income that is consumed
– So savings is:
• Assume 100% depreciation each period, so the capital
stock in t+1 is equal to savings in t
• But we know w just depends on k!!!!
Transition Equation
• Using the expression for wages,
• This is the transition equation
– Capital stock in t+1 is a function of capital stock in t
– notice that a higher capital stock today means more next
period, because it leads to more income and savings,
– Notice also, that there are diminishing returns (since β < 1)!!!!
• => we eventually reach steady state equilibrium
Transition Equation
Steady State Equilibrium
• Steady state equilibrium k is constant
– Hence y must be constant
– Capital and labor grow at same rate
– If k is constant so is r and w
• Unless A is growing over time, y constant in
steady state
– Only growth is adjustment to steady state
• “Catch Up” growth
Steady State
• We can determine the steady state level of k
• Set
in the transition equation
so,
or,
Steady State: Implications
• From this expression it is clear that and hence
–
–
–
–
Increase if the savings rate rises (obvious)
Increases if A increases (obvious)
Increases if capital’s share increases
Example:
Steady State
• Notice that if the capital-labor ratio is initially below its
steady state value
then savings leads to increases
in the capital labor ratio.
• Similarly, if we start off with too high a capital stock,
we decumulate until we reach .
• Notice that at , however, savings is just sufficient to
keep the capital-labor ratio constant.
– There is no net savings or net investment at this value of the
capital labor ratio.
– If A or the saving rate increases, so does
Two Countries
• Consider two countries, US and Japan
• Japan has higher savings rate
– Then Japan has higher steady state capital-labor
ratio, and higher output, savings, and consumption
– In autarky this difference would be permanent
Autarkic Equilibrium
Open capital markets
• With open capital markets, Japanese savers will want to
invest in US. Why?
– Because initially Japan had higher k and we know
that r is inversely related to k
• As Japan invests in US,
rises, and
falls
– This continues until returns are equalized, but this
requires
– Graphically,
Equilibrium in two-country model
New Steady State
• In new steady state wages will also be equalized
• Capital-labor ratios in each country converge to world
steady state capital-labor ratio
– In Japan from above, in US from below. Hence,
• Per-capita income rises in US in the transition
• Per-capita income falls in Japan in the transition
– But Japanese investors earn returns on their
investment in the US
• And we know this has higher return
How is
determined?
• Factor-price equalization makes world like one country
• Let N be the population, and a assets.
– So sum world savings and divide by population
– Then,
– World transition equation simplified by factor-price
equalization
• Implies wages equalized
Determination of
• World capital accumulation depends on the world savings rate,
which is the weighted average of those in each country:
– So
– In the new steady state the capital-labor ratio for each country will be
equal to
Steady State Equilibrium
• If this were not the case then the return to
capital would differ in the two countries.
– Since the US saves less than Japan this means that
some of the savings required to have a capital-labor
ratio equal to
will have to come from Japan.
– Thus Japan will have positive net foreign assets, and
the US will have negative net foreign assets.
Benefits of Capital Mobility
• Assume Japan and US same size and same production
function
– Under autarky,
, due to different savings rates
• Now open capital markets
– Capital flows to US due to higher rates of return
– New steady state
where returns are equalized
• Clearly yUS rises, what about Japan?
• Capital is more productive in US, so Japan earns more too
– Return BC > BG (return on using the capital at home)
– US pays FD to Japan but earns DA on the net inflow
Autarky vs Liberalization
Problem: What if Congress forbids foreign
ownership?
• Suppose we start in equilibrium, then Congress forbids
foreign ownership
– Initially, we are at
so interest rates equal
– New law shifts US to its transition curve
• Off the world curve
– Asset accumulation now lower in US
– In new steady state we have
–
<
Who gains, who loses?
• Given lower k in US
– wages lower in US (higher in Japan)
• So young and future workers lose
– What about interest rates?
– rUS will be higher
– So first old generation wins
• Opposite is true in Japan
• So winners and losers, but we know aggregate
losses exceed gains
Closed Capital Markets
kt+1
45o
Japan
kJ
a
J
World
a
a US
US
k
k
kW
kJ
kt
Adjustment to the new Steady State
• Start from autarky, then open capital markets
• Investment flows to US from Japan
• So along the transition path US accumulates k
– Implies current account deficit
– In new steady state higher capital-labor ratio
– But how do we get there?
Adjustment
• Transition involves an increase in US k
– Import of capital as returns are higher until new steady
state is reached
– implies negative current account in transition
– Definition of current account
– In steady state, investment = 0
– In steady state, current account = 0
– Net Exports is positive in steady state:
X t  M t  rK
Adjustment to Steady State
Adjustment to Steady State: Net Foreign Assets
0
time
 K1
Kt
K
Adjustment to Steady State: Add Net Exports
(X  M )
0
time
 ( X 0  M0 )   K 1
Kt
K
Adjustment to Steady State: Add interest payments
(X  M )
0
time
 rK
 ( X 0  M0 )   K 1
K
rK t
Kt
Adjustment to Steady State: Add Current Account
(X  M )
0
It
 rK
 ( X 0  M0 )   K 1
time
f
rK t
Kt
K
In New Steady State
• Net foreign assets are lower (more negative)
– US borrowed to accumulate k
•
•
•
•
Net interest payments are negative
Current account balance = 0
Net exports are higher
Capital-labor and per-capita income are higher
Rise in Productivity
• Suppose initially that
• Now let
–
–
–
–
–
Transition curve for US shifts upwards
So now
must rise
Japanese savers want to invest in US
Interest rates can be equalized only if
rises
So
in Japan and opposite in US
• Or,
Digression (for now)
• If interest rates are equalized why doesn’t k flow from
rich to poor countries?
– India has 1/5th of US per-capita income
– Suppose that
• (textbook calls this the “naïve” model
– This implies
– This would seem to imply huge differences in r
– If capital’s share = 0.4 implies our k is
India’s
larger than
Return difference
• Naïve model =>return to kUS is 58 times higher
in India
–
–
–
–
–
–
Where does the 58 come from?
Ignoring A,
and
So
We know that
So
And 151.5 = 58
Lucas Paradox
• Capital should flow from US to India
– But it flows the other way
• Naïve model does not seem to work. Why?
– Ignoring differences in A!
– Ignoring risk premia
• Emerging markets must earn extra return to compensate
for risk
Gains from Financial Globalization
Risk Premia
Implications
• Rise in productivity causes US CA deficit
– Japan has to accumulate foreign assets
– Both countries benefit from higher US productivity
– Rise in productivity is one explanation of US current
account deficit, at least in 1990’s
– Less valid in this century
Fixed Investment and Net Exports
percent of GDP
US Savings and Investment, 1970-2003
(percent of GDP)